Basildon and Billericay
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21922 (52.74%)
Labour: 9584 (23.06%)
Liberal Democrat: 6538 (15.73%)
BNP: 1934 (4.65%)
UKIP: 1591 (3.83%)
Majority: 12338 (29.68%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 18092 (46.5%)
Labour: 12840 (33%)
Liberal Democrat: 4982 (12.8%)
Other: 3006 (7.7%)
Majority: 5252 (13.5%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 25487 (52.2%)
Labour: 14281 (29.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6471 (13.2%)
BNP: 1435 (2.9%)
UKIP: 1184 (2.4%)
Majority: 11206 (22.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 21608 (47.4%)
Labour: 16595 (36.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6323 (13.9%)
UKIP: 1072 (2.4%)
Majority: 5013 (11%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 22033 (39.8%)
Labour: 20677 (37.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 8763 (15.8%)
Other: 3947 (7.1%)
Majority: 1356 (2.4%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: John Baron(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)
John Baron(Conservative) (more information at They work for you)Allan Davies (Labour) Basildon councillorMike Hibbs (Liberal Democrat)Alan Broad (UKIP)Irene Bateman (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84261
Male: 48.2%
Female: 51.8%
Under 18: 23.2%
Over 60: 20.9%
Born outside UK: 4.5%
White: 97.1%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 1%
Mixed: 0.9%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 74.1%
Full time students: 1.7%
Graduates 16-74: 12.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.6%
Owner-Occupied: 70.7%
Social Housing: 23.5% (Council: 17.9%, Housing Ass.: 5.6%)
Privately Rented: 4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 2.1%
That’s interesting – thanks.
I didn’t realise those had already been decided before 1970 – if not yet implemented. (Local authority changes).
The plan at the time was for unitary authorities almost everywhere. I believe that the Labour government genuinely intended to implement it soon after the election, but the Conservatives campaigned for a two-tier system of local government, and that was what was eventually introduced. It was a modified version of Labour’s proposal.
Wikipedia has a thorough overview in its article on the Local Government Act 1972.
In 1970 was the result in Billericay declared early (despite having an electorate of over 120.000)? If my memory serves me right Guildford was the the first seat to declare in 1970.
That’s right, Stephen.
I didn’t see it on that tape,
I don’t think it was in the first 12-15.
It must have been a good indicator.
The actual figures were shown on the screen at about 1:20 am. On the manknownas’s uploads, on 1970 – part 11 at 13 minutes.
Too late to get cameras there if they weren’t expecting it I guess.
It wasn’t that declared all that early.
There were a lot of seats in.
It was referred to as the largest seat in England,
and one Labour had to hold on to.
So the New Town probably was actually causing a medium term movement to Labour even in 1970.
swing to Con 3.1% in 1970 (4.7% nationally),
and 6.0% I think to Labour in Feb 1974 (1.3% nationally).
Obviously that unravelled from 1979 onwards.
Billericay was a bell weather seat in 1959, 1964, 1966 and 1970 and became a safe seat once re-created in 1983.
They must have hired enough counters if they knew it was a huge seat.
The sum of Glasgow Bridgeton, Glasgow Central, Glasgow Gorbals, Glasgow Kelingrove and Glasgow Woodside….were over 10000 electors smaller in 1970 than Billericay.
This was due to the mass inner city clearances in the late 1960′s.
Much of the electorate of the safe Labour Glasgow Gorbals moved to the new Castlemilk housing estate in Glasgow Cathcart.
That’s quite shocking when you think of it like that.
I think the electorate of Billericay was something like 128,000.
this would have been a very bad seat for Gloy in 1970. There wasn’t even a Lib candidate.
Hence the Labour vote actually went up – Cons up more though.
It was a more deferential age than today to put it mildly. People just accepted the fact that constituency electorates were so divergent. These days most people find it difficult to accept just a few very large and small seats such as some of the island constituencies.
I remember Robert McCrindle quite well – a nice man.
Eric Moonman is still around.
It was wrong that these seats were so all over the place in size,
but I would be quite proud to have something like 40,000 votes by my name. (not that that’s logical though).
I’d love to see the 2010 result on the Billericay seat that existed in 1970.
I think Labour would have won it in 1997 and 2001,
but lost it in 2005
Not in 2001 I think. The seat was exactly coterminous with the Brentwood and Billericay(/Basildon) UDs. As such in terms of the 1997-2010 seats it would have inclluded all of Billericay together with the Basildon seat minus the Thurrock wards and the Brentwood & Ongar seat minus the Epping Forest wards. In 2001 Labour majority in Basildon was 7,738 of which perhaps about 2,000 was from the Thurrock wards. Conservative majority in Billericay 5,013 so that on it’s own would be almost enough to nullify Labour’s lead in Basildon and in Brentwood & Ongar the Torry majority was 11,000 over Labour. 1997 almost certainly it would have been Labour, but not by very much
Yes, I now see your point.
I did a rough calculation actually after I made that statement, and it’s pretty clear that the 2001 result in Brentwood when Labour fell further than the Tories (after Mr Sanctimonious’s intervention) would
leave Labour quite significantly short across the whole area.
A considerable achievement though for Labour to have been winning that vast seat or only just losing it in relatively even years.
All results for Billericay
(the seat which existed before 1974).
1970
Billericay
[E] Conservative gain RA McCrindle Conservative 47,719 52.16%
E Moonman Labour 43,765 47.84%
Electorate: 123,297; Turnout: 74.20%;
Majority: 3,954 (4.32%)
1966
Billericay
[E] Labour gain E Moonman Labour 40,013 46.54%
EL Gardner Conservative 38,371 44.63%
L Wernick Liberal 7,587 8.83%
Electorate: 102,198; Turnout: 84.12%;
Majority: 1,642 (1.91%)
1964
Billericay
[E] Conservative hold EL Gardner Conservative 35,347 44.29%
RA Smythe Labour 33,755 42.30%
PMT Sheldon-Williams Liberal 10,706 13.41%
Electorate: 96,762; Turnout: 82.48%;
Majority: 1,592 (1.99%)
1959
Billericay
[E] Conservative hold EL Gardner Conservative 29,224 46.41%
RA Smythe Labour 24,402 38.75%
PMT Sheldon-Williams Liberal 9,347 14.84%
Electorate: 78,328; Turnout: 80.40%;
Majority: 4,822 (7.66%)
1955
Billericay
[E] Conservative win
RFS Body Conservative 24,327 54.73%
BR Clapham Labour 20,121 45.27%
Electorate: 58,872; Turnout: 75.50%;
Majority: 4,206 (9.46%)
so…
Electorate up 64,000 in 15 years.
Richard Body MP in 1955.
Sir Richard Body was MP for this seat from 1955 – 1959 and then Holland & Boston from 1966 to 1997, followed by Boston & Skegness.
Really unsual! Does anybody know why he stood down.
Many MP’s are retreads following losing their seats but fews MP’s stand down and them stand again a few years later. I can only think for Alan Clarke.
Harry Hylton-Foster swapped York for The Cities of London & Westminster and Fitzroy MacLean swapped Lancaster for Bute & North Ayrshire in 1959.
Defectors jump seats or MP’s who move due to boundary changes. These are examples of people switching at an election, Alan Clarke is the only example I can think of where an MP came back, other than Sir Alex Douglas Hulme (Lanark then Kinross & West Perthshire).
As I wrote on another thread, Sir Richard Body occasionally writes in the Salisbury Review periodical. So he’s still active in politics in a way.
Why did he stand down in 1959? The seat was still Conservative that year.
I have wondered about that. was he ill maybe? or he could have been deselected, some of his views being somewhat controversial in the Conservative Party.
Dalek, there are a few other examples I can think of.
In 1997 Gary Streeter switched the marginal seat of Plymouth Sutton for the safe tory seat of Devon South West.
Fergus Montgomory was tory MP for Brierley Hill from 1967 to 1974 when his seat was abolished and he failed to win selection for the save tory seat of Staffordshire South West. So he faught the maginal seat of Dudley West and lost to labour. He retuned to the House of Commons latter that year as MP for Altrincham and Sale. He remained an MP untill 1997.
I can’t think of any other examples of MP’s who lost their seats in Feb 74 and got re-elected in Oct 74. I also can only think of one seat which changed hands at both 74 elections (Dumbarton East) which had labour, tory and SNP MP’s all within a few months.
“Alan Clarke is the only example I can think of where an MP came back, other than Sir Alex Douglas Hulme (Lanark then Kinross & West Perthshire).”
Quentin Hogg did the same thing of course at the same time – renouncing his peerage and getting elected for St Marylebone (he had previously been MP for Oxford)
The Gary Streeter situation is not at all comparable. The Plymouth Sutton seat he represented wasn’t particularly marginal (though could have become so in 1997) but it was effectively redrawn as Devon SW. Devon SW took 4 of the 7 wards from Plymouth Sutton and was therefore its succesor seat. There are countless examples of similar situations including eg. Gordon Brown in 2005
Fergus Montgomery had also sat for Newcastle East 1959-64
‘Fergus Montgomery had also sat for Newcastle East 1959-64′
That’s a seat you couldn’t see the Tories winning now in a million years
Old constituency maps show that the Toiries used to be strong in Scotland and well represented in the Northern cities
The benefit to the Tories of the population shift from town to country and the suburbs has rendered this almost irrelevant
Would Labour have defeated Gary Streeter on the old Plymouth Sutton boundaries in 1997?
I think probably yes, but only just.
Tom Driberg stood down as MP for Maldon in 1955 . and returned as MP for Barking in 1959.
I didn’t realise that – I assumed he had lost his seat (it was of course a Conservative gain in 1955). Do you know why he chose to stand down then?
Given what we now know about Tom Driberg’s behaviour, the big question is not why he chose to stand down (I don’t know the answer to that), but why either constituency parties or Transport House (as it then was) ever selected him and allowed him to stand.
Francis Wheen’s excellent biography of Tom Driberg states that he got disillusioned with being an MP and wanted to get back to journalism in 1955. He was also sure he was going to lose his seat.
He decided he had made a mistake and worked hard to get the candidacy for several seats before the 1959 election and was eventually selected for Barking.
In another similarity to Alan Clark, Tom Driberg was an absolutely atrocious constituency MP.
Frederic – the 1950s were a different, more deferential, age.
Driberg’s homosexuality and promiscuity were not known outside the house even by many prominent figures in the Labour party. His alleged role as a Soviet spy was not known by anyone at that time.
Meanwhile he was popular amongst the Labour grassroots for his staunch left-wing views, and was very well known through his column for the Daily Express.
Driberg became a very well-connected and protected man in the East End when he got involved with the Krays.
Adam,
“Defectors jump seats or MP’s who move due to boundary changes.”
I was excluding MP’s who moved does to boundary changes. In many respects the new Devon SW was more Gary Streeters old Plymouth Sutton and the new Plymouth Sutton (that was largely the old Devonport, without Devonport)…and Plymouth Drake largely became the new Plymouth Devonport.
According to Wikipedia former Labour MP for Basildon Eric Moonman is now Professor of Management at City University and also president of the Zionist Federation of Great Britain and Ireland.
I think there could be three Labour gains from the Tories on Basildon Council this May.
But it would still leave the Tories in control
with 26 seats
to Labour 13 and LD 3.
In fact, the Tories may well have a chance of keeping control through this whole Parliament, unless we see the kind of collapse that took place in 1993-6
The ward boundaries are now much more favourable to the Conservatives now than then. At that time there were 14 3-member wards with 9 of these covering the new town and 5 covering Billericay, Wickford and Burstead, so the number of councillors in the two parts of the borough was 27 in the new town and 15 in the rest. The respective figures now are 24 and 18. Labour cannot come close to winning any of the non-new town wards. That was true also of course even in the mid-90s, but then the LDs took those wards in the desperate years like 1994-5 whereas they pose no real threat now. Langdon Hills within the new town looks to be almost equally safe for the Tories so this would leave Labour needing to win all the remaining seats in the new town wards which is a very tall order. At the very least this could not happen until 2014 as the Conservatives hold a number of those seats in Pitsea and Laindon Park plus there is the LD ward in Nethermayne. In effect there are 20 safe Conservative seats in this borough which means they only need to hold onto a couple of the more marginal seats to retain their majority
Those were spectacularly dreadful results, in areas which would have still been rock solid in 1990, for example.
Labour majorities of 4-1 in some New Town wards, and Lib Dem victories in Tory strongholds north of the A12.
The only seat to change hands in Basildon was Nethermayne, which Labour gained from the Lib Dems.
In fact the result in said ward was quite interesting. Labour won with 30%, the LDs got 24.5%, the Conservatives 23%, and UKIP 20%.
So pretty competitive.
The make-up of the council is now as follows:
Cons 29
Lab 11
LD 2
It now looks like the council can only be a Tory hold next year… meaning the blues will keep control until at least 2014 (no elections in 2013, I believe), which would mark 11 years of Conservative control.
Of course that doesn’t take into account possible by-elections and defections.
I think that’s right.
The Tories should be able to keep control all the way through this Parliament.
Something that was never of course achieved before – indeed there weren’t any Tory councillors atall in this seat whilst the party was dominant in General Elections, until 1991-92.
I can’t see the Lib Dems being a problem in Billericay or Wickford either – they were in 1994-6.
None in the old Basildon seat I meant to say.
I was considering this the other day. Now that the vast majority of local council elections are out of the way until 2015, IF the Tories perform ok in electons over the next few years and manage to minimise their losses, it is possible that they could lose power at Westminster and go back into opposition whilst STILL being the party of local government (more councils and councillors than any other party).
When was the last time an outgoing government was in that position I wonder?
That would leave them in an extraordinarily strong position in local government with future elections then going back in their favour and the party likely to make yet more gains. And it would mean that councils that the Tories have only rarely run such as Basildon, Amber Valley and the like could become councils that they run for 20 years.
I was thinking the same. There will be some losses next year, especially where some rather unlikely gains were made in 2008. This will cost control in some places like Southampton but will mostly effect areas like Wolverhampton which are already in Labour control. The number of seats up are far fewer than this year so as you say in the large number of councils which elect all in one go, the Conservatives are secure until 2015 and then may be helped in some places by general election turnout. There will inevitably be some losses in the counties in 2013 – one would probably expect Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Lancashire to go back to Labour. But the Conservatives will still likely control the vast majority of CCs.
I don’t know how unusual it is for a party to be in this position following a first term. Labour did well in 1998 (better than 1994 in some parts of London) and held up reasonably well in 1999. Only 2000, when again rather few seats were up was a bad year for them in that cycle. I don’t know what the numbers are, but Labour went into the 2001 election in a pretty strong position in terms of councillors and councils. I think the same for the Conservatives in 1983 following very good results in the local elections of 1982
Thats all true, and I know that it has happened before for a governing party to still be the largest party in local government at the end of their ‘first term’.
But I do not believe that this government will get a ‘second term’. I believe that the next election will result in a small Labour majority whether that be in 2015 or if the coalition falls before then.
If that scenario were to come about, I think it is highly unusual for an outgoing government to still be in such a strong position in local government.
Its only a theory though. I suppose if the Tories win the next general election whenever that comes, then they will not be in such a strong local position when they eventually lose power.
I think this government will get in again,
with an overall Tory majority,
and we can get rid of the Liberals.
But I could be incorrect.
If Labour is stacking up national share of the vote in places where they are already strong
and the Tories can take Lib Dem seats, and bring on board some people who drew back from autumn 2009, then an outright Con win is achieveable.
But the really awkward thing would be if Tories were just above or just below a majority and needed a broken Lib Dem party to prop them up.
I am not ruling out a Labour victory atall though.
at present it’s even
I would hope that the Conservative leadership might take a look at where electoral, economic and demographic trends were pointing for possible Conservative gains.
Clue – Ealing North isn’t one of them!
Clearly not,
although Ealing North wasn’t actually such a ridiculous seat to expect, as a long shot.
It has a large amount of Metroland territory like Ilford North, and voters that you might expect to switch in larger numbers,
but other characteristics of the seat have been drawing it further to Labour, in the way Brent and parts of Harrow have become.
On top of that, Stephen Pound does seem to be an MP with a large personal vote.
No question about that – I bumped into a Conservative canvasser last year, without identifying myself as a Labour person, who told me it was very difficult because Steve Pound was so popular. He also cropped up when I did a survey quite spontaneiously, a white octogenarian telling me he was doing “a bloody good job”.
I agree,
I’ve met people in that area (without particularly trying to get onto politics) who say they’re Tory minded but vote for Stephen Pound.
I never thought he would lose although it could have been cut to 2,000 or so in 2008