Comments on: Barrow and Furness

By: peterelectionfollower

peterelectionfollower — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 23:06:50 +0000

Thank you JamesS for your infornmation dated 31 December. It may be that such LD voters vote LD in Barrow as they did in W&L which I have predicted as LD hold.

Barrow is too close to predict at this point; it could be that as John Hutton standing down AND favourable boundary changes helping, Tories narrowly gain.

3 figure Lab or Tory majority, I feel.

By: sparky33

sparky33 — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 13:06:45 +0000

BBC has just reported 230 job losses at BAE systems Submarine yard in the town.

By: Lancs Observer

Lancs Observer — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 06:32:08 +0000

Do many of the Royal Navy sailors, submariners and Marines register to vote here or at home?

By: JamesS

JamesS — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 09:17:34 +0000

It’s quite an interesting to look at the wards transferred into the seat. This is a L/C marginal and the Westmoorland is a LD/C marginal. The two wards have lots of C and LD voters and v few L.

It will therefore be interesting to see what the LD supporters do when faced with the new experience of a C/L marginal – I’d have though it would be v difficult to model.

By: benjamin

benjamin — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 01:50:02 +0000

I don’t know about EC but I didn’t think the figure above was based on any kind of swing, it’s a calculation of what the result would have been had this seat been fought on these boundaries in 2005.

By: Mike

Mike — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 00:11:02 +0000

EC’s model has a tendency to wildly distort large swings while being not too different from a standard model on small swings. I would trust the standard model–with the caveat that UNS models are always highly fallible.

Anyway, did the People’s Party stand here last time? I don’t think they did. If they stand this time, that could cause serious trouble for Labour, who are already in trouble here to begin with.

By: Tam

Tam — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 11:15:47 +0000

Paul – Thanks for that.

So which is more accurate (sorry Anthony)?

By: geoff smith

geoff smith — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 10:42:24 +0000

Chris Loynes is Green Party Candidate

By: Paul D

Paul D — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 13:15:00 +0000

There could be two reasons for the difference – one is the projected boundary changes, I’d have to check but they may have the majority lower than here

The second, as Doktorb says, is that EC uses “proportional” national swing, rather than “uniform”, as used here (essentially EC projects that if Labour are on 27% cf 36% last time, they will lose roughly a quarter of their support in every seat – UNS says they’ll fall by 9% in every seat). The proportional model was responsible for Ming’s Lib Dems being projected zero seats on EC when they were polling at 11% as they lost more than half their support across the board

By: doktorb

doktorb — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 12:27:10 +0000

Tam – I think EC uses a bizarre set of maths based on a national uniform swing.