Barking
2010 Results:
Conservative: 8073 (17.79%)
Labour: 24628 (54.26%)
Liberal Democrat: 3719 (8.19%)
BNP: 6620 (14.59%)
UKIP: 1300 (2.86%)
Green: 317 (0.7%)
Christian: 482 (1.06%)
Socialist Labour: 45 (0.1%)
Monster Raving Loony: 82 (0.18%)
Independent: 77 (0.17%)
Others: 45 (0.1%)
Majority: 16555 (36.47%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18049 (48.6%)
Conservative: 6691 (18%)
BNP: 5825 (15.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4117 (11.1%)
Other: 2460 (6.6%)
Majority: 11358 (30.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 4943 (17.1%)
Labour: 13826 (47.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3211 (11.1%)
BNP: 4916 (17%)
Green: 618 (2.1%)
UKIP: 803 (2.8%)
Other: 589 (2%)
Majority: 8883 (30.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 5768 (23%)
Labour: 15302 (60.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 2450 (9.8%)
BNP: 1606 (6.4%)
Majority: 9534 (37.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5802 (17.6%)
Labour: 21698 (65.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3128 (9.5%)
Referendum: 1283 (3.9%)
Other: 1053 (3.2%)
Majority: 15896 (48.2%)
Boundary changes: Barking significantly increases in size under the new boundaries, gaining the wards of Alibon, Parsloes and Valence on the Becontree estate while losing only a small part of River ward.
Profile: a traditional white-working class seat that now includes much of the Becontree council estate. The south of the constituency is earmarked for major redevelopment and will see large scale housing development as part of the Thames Riverside development over coming years. Barking is the BNP`s strongest seat in the country, they managed to come third at the last election and won 12 seats on Barking and Dagenham Borough Council in the 2006 local elections. While on paper the boundary changes appear to reduce the BNP`s support in the seat, the BNP returned councillors in all three of the new wards in 2006 and they are likely to prove fertile territory for the far-right.
Current MP: Margaret Hodge(Labour) born 1944, Egypt. Educated at the LSE. Prior to her election to Parliament she was leader of Islington Council. First entered Parliament in a 1994 by-election. Prior to the 2006 local elections was criticised for giving the BNP the oxygen of publicity by claiming that up to 9 out of 10 of her white constituents would vote for them. Junior minister in the department of education 1998-2001, Minister of state 2001-2007 in the departments of education, work and trade and industry. Minister of State for Culture, Media and Sport since 2007, taking a year out between 2008 and 2009 to care for her terminally ill husband (more information at They work for you)
Simon Marcus (Conservative) Born London. Educated at Kings College London. Runs the London Boxing Academy.Margaret Hodge(Labour) born 1944, Egypt. Educated at the LSE. Prior to her election to Parliament she was leader of Islington Council. First entered Parliament in a 1994 by-election. Prior to the 2006 local elections was criticised for giving the BNP the oxygen of publicity by claiming that up to 9 out of 10 of her white constituents would vote for them. Junior minister in the department of education 1998-2001, Minister of state 2001-2007 in the departments of education, work and trade and industry. Minister of State for Culture, Media and Sport since 2007, taking a year out between 2008 and 2009 to care for her terminally ill husband (more information at They work for you)
Dominic Carman (Liberal Democrat) Son of George Carman QC. Journalist and author. Finalist in ITV`s political talent show “Vote for Me” in 2005.
Jayne Forbes (Green) Contested Hornsey and Wood Green 2001, 2005.
Frank Maloney (UKIP) born Peckham. Boxing manager and promoter, managed Lennox Lewis 1989-2001. Contested London mayoralty 2004.
Nick Griffin (BNP) born 1959, London. Educated at Woodbridge School and Cambridge University. Chairman of the BNP and MEP for North-West England. Former publicity officer and Parliamentary candidate for the National Front before leaving the party in 1989. Joined the BNP in 1995 and educated BNP magazines Spearhead and The Rune. In 1998 he was prosecuted for incitement to racial hatred in reation to an issue of The Rune that denied the holocaust. He was again arrested for incitement to racial hatred in 2004 in relation to a speech he made criticising Islam which was recorded by the BBC, he was subsequently found not guilty at trial. Chairman of the BNP since 1999 he has persued a strategy of giving the BNP a less overtly racist and extremist image. Contested North West Region 2004 European elections. MEP for North West England since 2009. Contested South Wales West in 2007 Welsh assembly elections. Contested Croydon North-West by-election 1981, Croydon North-West 1983 for the National Front. West Bromwich West by-election 2000, Oldham West & Royton 2001, Keighley 2005 for the BNP.
George Hargreaves (Christian) Born George Jackman in 1958. Educated at Woolverstone Hall School and Oxford University. Former songwriter, most famously penning Sinitta’s “So Macho”, now Pastor of the Hephizibah Christian Centre, Hackney. Contested Walthamstow for the Referendum Party in 1997. Contested 2004 Birmingham Hodge Hill by-election for Operation Christian Vote. Contested Scotland in 2004 European elections for Operation Christian Vote. Contested Na h-Eileanan an Lar 2005, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006, Haltemprice and Howden by-election 2008, London in 2009 European elections.
Crucial Chris Dowling (Official Monster Raving Loony) Musician
Dapo Sijuwola (Restoration)
Thomas Darwood (Independent) Religious publisher. Claims to be the true Archbishop of Canterbury, Pope and heir to the throne. Contested Haltemprice and Howden 2008 by-election.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 105316
Male: 47.6%
Female: 52.4%
Under 18: 26.3%
Over 60: 17.8%
Born outside UK: 12.9%
White: 83.1%
Black: 7.8%
Asian: 6.2%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 1%
Christian: 67.2%
Hindu: 1.2%
Muslim: 5.5%
Sikh: 1.2%
Full time students: 4.2%
Graduates 16-74: 10.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 39.9%
Owner-Occupied: 52.3%
Social Housing: 40.6% (Council: 38.2%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 5.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.4%
Lab maj 1,500.
BNP
Con
LibD
CP
UKIP
GRN
Just the fact that Nick Griffin is standing makes me hope that Margaret Hodge wins again.I’m not neccessarily for her but wish her all the very best.Hope the odds are right.
BNP will fail, Labour hold.
BNP maj 500
Interesting that Hargreaves’ Christian Party has huge billboards. Should hold his deposit.
BNP: 12,250
Labour: 11,800
Conservative: 5,800
Liberal Dem: 5,000
Christian: 2,100
UKIP: 1,600
Green: 500
Independent: 250
Loony: 150
Restoration: 120
Can’t see there is any chance for Nick Griffin here now. However badly Lab do nationally, and even though Hodge has plenty of enemies she will hold on reasonably comfortably.
Very unlikely there will be any BNP seats – but if they do pull a surprise anywhere, Stoke or Burnley are more likely.
Not Burnely. Looks as if the Lib Dems already have that in the bag.
Like I say prob wont win anywhere – Im surprised they abandoned some of the areas of West Yorkshire they were starting to make inroads. Presumably a result of the usual infighting you get in far right parties. Consistent hard campaigning could have made somewhere like Keighley or Dewsbury more likely breakthru territory – though why I am planning the BNPs campaigns for them I have no idea. I should just leave them to do it badly.
I wonder if Brown’s “bigot” comments will find their way into BNP leaflets.
BNP gain (maj 500-750)
BNP are already putting adverts in local newspapers about Brown’s ‘bigot’ comments, and the effects of his remarks will have definitely boosted the BNP here. I’ll change my prediction to a BNP gain.
LAB MAJ 1,200 OVER BNP
BNP HAVE A REAL CHANCE OF TAKING A MAJ ON THE LOCAL COUNCIL THOUGH
Oh Dear.
Hazel Blears revealed to have an illegal immigrant in her campaign team. It’s not been a good week for Labour after trying to convince people they are ‘tough’ on immigration!
I reckon it will be close for the seat. Barnbrook (BNP) seems very confident about taking control of the council.
Both Margaret Hodge and the BNP are being targeted by third parties. This is being sent out all over Barking to smear Margaret Hodge:
http://margarethodge.files.wordpress.com/2010/05/sentinel.pdf
Judging by some of the forecasts here the seat is rightly named Barking. Despite being stupid enough not to deselect the vile Hodge Labour are a safe bet to hold this by 5000.
I go Labour 2500. BNP will probably take the Council, more fool Barking.
I think the BNP will take the council in Barking and Dagenham. It’s the only thing being talked about round here and all the people are saying is “i’m voting BNP”.
You always know when the BNP are out campagining coz all u hear is car’s beebing and rooting them on, and labour has only got there self to blame. They really think there’ve got it in the bag. Aint they gonna be shocked but thats what happens when u get 2 big 4 ya boots, perhaps they will learn from this !!!
Labour majority 5500
Labour to hold council.
Lab 15000
BNP 12500
Con 7500
LD 4000
UKIP 2500
Green 1000
Oth 2000
Lab maj will be big enough.. 3-4000
Other than that I’m staying clear of predicting this seat for my sanity.
Looks like a strong LD candidate by his connections… Lets hope he finds a better seat next time because even I might have voted labour here
LAB HOLD
Reckon Chris above is about right.
Hodge to hold on just.
The Council is too close to call – probably a Con/Lab coalition but the BNP could easily control a £1bn budget by Friday evening.
Bigotgate —-> Good results for BNP.
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Lab hold maj. 3000 ish
BBC london is reporting an incident in Barking where an asian man spat in the face of a BNP candidate which lead to a scuffle breaking out.
BNP GAIN
BIGOT GATE will play its last card for Labour.
Suzy,
I saw it on national TV (BBC news channel, I think). From seing the coverage once, I would say bones were probably broken. I think other politicians have been spat at, but I can’t ever remember a similar reaction from minders.
Labou will hold. The council will be interesting. I predict BNP just the largest party, 9-12 Tories, possibly 3 LDs and the balance Labour. NOC with Lab/Con administration.
I would do exactly the same as Bailey.
Engr
Who is Bailey?
“Who is Bailey?”
Bob Bailey leader of the BNP group on B&D council (and candidate for Romford). It was a Prescott moment
Much though I dislike Prescott, he never waded in like that.
It pains me to say this but I think this will be a BNP gain with a majority of 2000. I really hope I’m wrong and Hodge wins with a comfortable majority.
The pair of them should be hauled up before the magistrates for common assault post haste. The youth shouldn’t have spat at Bailey and Bailey shouldn’t have tried to give him a kicking, including on the floor (and incidentally start the shoving if you watch the tape).
It’s rare that I find myself? in full support of the BNP, but this is one of those times. You gob in someone’s face and you deserve all you get.
Not much sympathy for a spitter. Won’t do the BNP any harm either.Seems apposite to bring out the Bosnian President ‘s quote on the difference between Serbs and Croats ‘It’s the same as the difference between leukemia and brain cancer’.
Hodge here I am afraid. But that is not the story. The BNP have given up on the parliamentary seat and focused on council. I predict they will take the council here. Standby for collapse in property prices and increased tensions. Will not be a happy place.
Stories of yet another split in the BNP in the Times today: The BNP website is still only showing “A message from Simon Bennett” “…the leadership have chosen to force the domain from me, steal my work, data and systems and go it alone rather than paying for it”.
I despise spitting, and certainly don’t think anyone involved in the unsavory incident was innocent in the broad sense, but as the Times said, and the BBC report showed, Bailey had asked the group “How many of youse are robbers?” first, so clear provocation.
Sadly i’m not sure the incident will harm the BNP and they could certainly win the council, indeed may well be favourites to do that. I think Hodge will win by 3,000 or so, but even with the parliamentary seat i’m afraid a BNP win is not utterly inconceivable.
One has to remember that La Hodge was daft enough to express her fears about the malevolent influence of the BNP. That alone is probably largely responsible for them targeting her. Much as I might wish to see her lose, I certainly don’t want it to be to that lot.
Loads of coverage about the asian man spitting in the BNP candidates face. Looks like the overwhelming majority of people sympathise with the BNP chap.
I don’t think anyone has any idea of what will happen here. There is a spiral of silence. I personally feel it may be quite close because
…..(opps)….because the anti-Griffin vote may split between Lab and Lib. Barking has not got the media coverage I expected, and I think that will help Griffin.
I think the BNP will take the council.
I think the seat will be very close with the majority being between 500-1000 votes. Could go either way.
There are queues at the polling stations in Barking according to a tweet from Nick Griffin.
Another tweet from an anti-BNP group is asking for people to come out and vote in Barking because it looks like a tight contest and the ‘BNP vote is coming out’.
All sounds very exciting. Will be very interesting to look at the final result.
Hodge was on BBC news. She thinks she is going to win.
Looks like the council is heading for a white-wash.
It’s Labour all the way.