Barking
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18049 (48.6%)
Conservative: 6691 (18%)
BNP: 5825 (15.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4117 (11.1%)
Other: 2460 (6.6%)
Majority: 11358 (30.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 4943 (17.1%)
Labour: 13826 (47.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3211 (11.1%)
BNP: 4916 (17%)
Green: 618 (2.1%)
UKIP: 803 (2.8%)
Other: 589 (2%)
Majority: 8883 (30.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 5768 (23%)
Labour: 15302 (60.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 2450 (9.8%)
BNP: 1606 (6.4%)
Majority: 9534 (37.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5802 (17.6%)
Labour: 21698 (65.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3128 (9.5%)
Referendum: 1283 (3.9%)
Other: 1053 (3.2%)
Majority: 15896 (48.2%)
Boundary changes: Barking significantly increases in size under the new boundaries, gaining the wards of Alibon, Parsloes and Valence on the Becontree estate while losing only a small part of River ward.
Profile: a traditional white-working class seat that now includes much of the Becontree council estate. The south of the constituency is earmarked for major redevelopment and will see large scale housing development as part of the Thames Riverside development over coming years. Barking is the BNP`s strongest seat in the country, they managed to come third at the last election and won 12 seats on Barking and Dagenham Borough Council in the 2006 local elections. While on paper the boundary changes appear to reduce the BNP`s support in the seat, the BNP returned councillors in all three of the new wards in 2006 and they are likely to prove fertile territory for the far-right.
Current MP: Margaret Hodge(Labour) born 1944, Egypt. Educated at the LSE. Prior to her election to Parliament she was leader of Islington Council. First entered Parliament in a 1994 by-election. Prior to the 2006 local elections was criticised for giving the BNP the oxygen of publicity by claiming that up to 9 out of 10 of her white constituents would vote for them. Junior minister in the department of education 1998-2001, Minister of state 2001-2007 in the departments of education, work and trade and industry. Minister of State for Culture, Media and Sport since 2007, taking a year out between 2008 and 2009 to care for her terminally ill husband (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Simon Marcus (Conservative) Born London. Educated at Kings College London. Runs the London Boxing Academy.
Frank Maloney (UKIP) born Peckham. Boxing manager and promoter, managed Lennox Lewis 1989-2001. Contested London mayoralty 2004.
Nick Griffin (BNP) born 1959, London. Educated at Woodbridge School and Cambridge University. Chairman of the BNP and MEP for North-West England. Former publicity officer and Parliamentary candidate for the National Front before leaving the party in 1989. Joined the BNP in 1995 and educated BNP magazines Spearhead and The Rune. In 1998 he was prosecuted for incitement to racial hatred in reation to an issue of The Rune that denied the holocaust. He was again arrested for incitement to racial hatred in 2004 in relation to a speech he made criticising Islam which was recorded by the BBC, he was subsequently found not guilty at trial. Chairman of the BNP since 1999 he has persued a strategy of giving the BNP a less overtly racist and extremist image. Contested North West Region 2004 European elections. MEP for North West England since 2009. Contested South Wales West in 2007 Welsh assembly elections. Contested Croydon North-West by-election 1981, Croydon North-West 1983 for the National Front. West Bromwich West by-election 2000, Oldham West & Royton 2001, Keighley 2005 for the BNP.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 105316
Male: 47.6%
Female: 52.4%
Under 18: 26.3%
Over 60: 17.8%
Born outside UK: 12.9%
White: 83.1%
Black: 7.8%
Asian: 6.2%
Mixed: 2%
Other: 1%
Christian: 67.2%
Hindu: 1.2%
Muslim: 5.5%
Sikh: 1.2%
Full time students: 4.2%
Graduates 16-74: 10.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 39.9%
Owner-Occupied: 52.3%
Social Housing: 40.6% (Council: 38.2%, Housing Ass.: 2.4%)
Privately Rented: 5.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.4%
We do know how it has voted in the GLA elections in 2008 and in the London borough elections in 2006 and most recently in thge European elections when tehir support was seriously dented by UKIP to an extent it won’t in a general election. You can expect the BNP to get at least 20-25% but probably not more than about 30% in this constituency. I can see them topping 20% in Dagenham and maybe approaching that in Thurrock, probably more like 15% in the Stokes and Burnleys.
Apparently the Green party will stand here afterall. I would imagine that will slightly boost the BNP’s chances.
Oliver – yes, the Greens under their National Organiser Peter Cranie have been specifically standing against the BNP and delivering “ant fascist” leaflets too. Howeve as you say, this in reality splits the non-BNP vote. Nick Griffin beat Peter Cranie for the NW European seat.
“However as you say, this in reality splits the non-BNP vote.”
Not at all. The BNP tend to do well when there is no competition between the more mainstream parties. When people feel ignored by the bigger parties they are more susceptible to the BNP’s message. The Greens would at least provide a more socially acceptable way of rebelling against the bigger parties, and so might help reduce the BNP vote.
If you look at the places that elect BNP councillors, most of them are places that Labour have dominated completely and where no other party really exists. When this changes, such as happened with the Lib Dems getting organised in Burnley, the BNP goes in to decline.
This election will be BNP vs Labour in the eyes of most voters in Barking.
I’m more inclined to believe that any support for the Greens will do more damage to Labour than the BNP.