Banff and Buchan
2010 Results:
Conservative: 11841 (30.78%)
Labour: 5382 (13.99%)
Liberal Democrat: 4365 (11.35%)
SNP: 15868 (41.25%)
BNP: 1010 (2.63%)
Majority: 4027 (10.47%)
2005 Results:
SNP: 19044 (51.2%)
Conservative: 7207 (19.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4952 (13.3%)
Labour: 4476 (12%)
Other: 1537 (4.1%)
Majority: 11837 (31.8%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 6207 (20.1%)
Labour: 4363 (14.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 2769 (9%)
SNP: 16710 (54.2%)
UKIP: 310 (1%)
Other: 447 (1.5%)
Majority: 10503 (34.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9564 (23.8%)
Labour: 4747 (11.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 2398 (6%)
SNP: 22409 (55.8%)
Referendum: 1060 (2.6%)
Majority: 12845 (32%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Eilidh Whiteford (SNP)
Jimmy Buchan (Conservative) Glen Reynolds (Labour) Galen Milne (Liberal Democrat) Eilidh Whiteford (SNP) Richard Payne (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 86769
Male: 49.7%
Female: 50.3%
Under 18: 23.9%
Over 60: 21.1%
Born outside UK: 2%
White: 99.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 59.9%
Graduates 16-74: 13.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.5%
Owner-Occupied: 66.8%
Social Housing: 24.5% (Council: 21.2%, Housing Ass.: 3.3%)
Privately Rented: 5.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.7%
Pete – and others – sorry I missed these very interesting posts, partly replies to my question.
I’ll study them properly now.
Many thanks.
David Myles was the last MP for Banffshire but because the seat effectively disappeared he stood without success in Orkney & Shetland for the Tories in 1983. Before his gain in 1979 it was represented by Hamish Watt of the SNP.
Hamish Watt, yes,
good name.
I remember David Butler referring to it on Decision 79.
The funniest thing was when they started analysing the error result of Angus South which put the Tories down from 15,000 to 2,000 and bottom of the poll, and had them thinking for a few seconds that perhaps they’d got it completely wrong in their forecasts about the SNP.
I was hoping the figures might show that the old Banff seat (1979) would be a bit better for the Tories in 2010 compared to this seat, but the reverse is clearly true.
Thanks for the figures. Interesting area.
The BBC did refer to the Banffshire seats as “Banff” in February 1974 so obviously it was one of those seats which could be referred to in either way by many people.
The Banff (or Banffshire) had an interesting shape from 1974-83:
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Banff and Buchan Coast 2011
SNP 49% (-9)
Con 27% (+8)
Lab 19% (+7)
LD 5% (-4)
A,
I think Jimmy Buchan could do even better than you suggest.
He is a fisherman, famous on the BBC.
This new seat is much more coastal than the seat he fought in 2010.
I certainly think this const. will have the biggest tory rise next year. The SNP are defending a very high watermark here.
Next Scottish polls will certainly be interesting to see if the SNP have taken a hit – they certainly haven’t been having the best of times recently with stories about letting the Parliament’s powers lapse.
‘Next Scottish polls will certainly be interesting to see if the SNP have taken a hit – they certainly haven’t been having the best of times recently with stories about letting the Parliament’s powers lapse.’
wonder if this could provide a way back for the LDs?
It’s interesting – the particular issue I would have thought would be more of an issue for their core support, rather than the anti-Labour tactical vote. And there aren’t that many options that will appeal to those voters in the constituency vote, although there might be more realistic options on the list vote – SSP, Green perhaps, which could actually be worse for the SNP overall, the regional list being their main source of seats.
I would like to see the greens do well on the list, I have far more respect for them than the lib dems.
Stewart Stevenson – the Scottish Transport Minister has resigned. Wonder what wider implications this could have for the SNP next year.
Jimmy Buchan (famous for being the skipper on the BBC Series Trawlermen) slashed the SNP majority from 30% – 10% last May.
At first site – the boundary changes that remove more Conservative inland areas to Aberdeenshire East and gain further historical coastal parts of Banffshire from Moray – appear to benefit the SNP, through making the demographics of this seat more dominant upon fishing communities.
It is Jimmy Buchan’s candidacy that could give
the resigning Scottish transport minister Stewart Stevenson a run for his money.
Jimmy Buchan is third on the list so he might get elected if the tories increase their vote at least 2/3% across the northeast from last time.
Tories did better in NE Scotland in 1992 and 2010 than Scotland as a whole.
In 1992 they re-gained Aberdeen South (the only non by election regain from Lab in the UK) and regained Kincardine & Deeside with a majority twice the size of that of Alick Buchannan Smith’s.
Tories won 3 NE regional seats in 1999 and 2003 – only dropping back to 2 in 2003.
If there is any recovery from the SNP in the region, Buchan could win the third seat.
I assume if the Tories maintain their 2010 general election level of Conservative support in the region that they would win three seats.
Prediction for May 2011 Scottish Parliament election
SNP – 15000
Con – 7000
LD – 4000
Lab – 2000
SNP should increase their majority here. But who knows, if the Adminstration at Holyrood becomes unpopular???