Banff and Buchan
2010 Results:
Conservative: 11841 (30.78%)
Labour: 5382 (13.99%)
Liberal Democrat: 4365 (11.35%)
SNP: 15868 (41.25%)
BNP: 1010 (2.63%)
Majority: 4027 (10.47%)
2005 Results:
SNP: 19044 (51.2%)
Conservative: 7207 (19.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 4952 (13.3%)
Labour: 4476 (12%)
Other: 1537 (4.1%)
Majority: 11837 (31.8%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 6207 (20.1%)
Labour: 4363 (14.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 2769 (9%)
SNP: 16710 (54.2%)
UKIP: 310 (1%)
Other: 447 (1.5%)
Majority: 10503 (34.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9564 (23.8%)
Labour: 4747 (11.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 2398 (6%)
SNP: 22409 (55.8%)
Referendum: 1060 (2.6%)
Majority: 12845 (32%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Eilidh Whiteford (SNP)
Jimmy Buchan (Conservative) Glen Reynolds (Labour) Galen Milne (Liberal Democrat) Eilidh Whiteford (SNP) Richard Payne (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 86769
Male: 49.7%
Female: 50.3%
Under 18: 23.9%
Over 60: 21.1%
Born outside UK: 2%
White: 99.5%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 59.9%
Graduates 16-74: 13.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.5%
Owner-Occupied: 66.8%
Social Housing: 24.5% (Council: 21.2%, Housing Ass.: 3.3%)
Privately Rented: 5.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.7%
PS
Lewis no more
Skye no more!
Lochaber no more
Sutherland no more
and come 2011
Salmond no more
Just watch this space
Dream on Galen – you’re finished in Scotland after this. It doesn’t make a blind bit of difference how much good work you do on civil liberties and devolution – as long as you are part of the government instigating instant and savage cuts on the people of this country you will not survive as a political force. It may be different in England, but in Scotland, with the promise of fiscal autonomy and the leadership of a man who is not at all popular in Scotland and wasn’t even before the betrayal, I don’t see the Lib Dems even vaguely holding off the SNP in rural and suburban Scotland or challenging Labour in the central belt and urban areas. Labour might end up making huge gains, the SNP could consolidate and improve their position also, but I don’t see any Lib Dem gains. Of course it’s still 11 months away so a lot could change but I don’t see it myself.
Lib Dems polling roughly 6-8% in Scotland in YouGov Westminster polling (though to be fair the SNP are in the low 20s so Labour have swallowed most of that vote at least at westminster). The coalition has finished the Lib dems as a force in the UK and particularly in Scotland. I’m amazed every Liberal Democrat in the Highlands hasn’t defected yet.
@ Calum W
Actually if you look at the break down in the Others voting for Scotland in the last two polls on the YouGov site, the SNP are down at about 11-14% with 6-7% of others (Greens, UKIP, BNP, etc…) so I wouldn’t get too cocky yet.
Is it possible to guess how the old Banff seat (of 1979) would have voted in 2010?
(It was only a 700 or so majority in 1979 for the Tories, over the SNP)
There is probably more meaningful data from the 2007 Scottish parliament elections, where the picture isn’t so clouded by Independents. The local elections give only a very rough guide to the relative strengths of the various parties in the different elements of these seats.
Banff was a very small seat of only a bit over 30,000 electors and the majority of it went to the new Moray seat in 1983. Only Banff itself came into this seat where it was merged with the majority of the old Aberdeenshire East.
The large STV wards now in use in Scotland do not exactly fit the old boundaries, but roughly speaking the Banff ward was in Banffshire and the other 6 wards were in East Aberdeenshire (Buchan)
The local election results in those two areas show the SNP to be not quite so strong in Banff as in buchan, but we don’t know how the Independent vote went:
‘Buchan’
SNP 13319 47.7%
Con 4186 15.0%
LD 2642 9.5%
Lab 550 2.0%
Ind 7008 25.1%
Oth 199 0.7%
Banff
SNP 1588 35.0%
Con 616 13.6%
LD 694 15.3%
Lab 0 0.0%
Ind 1340 29.5%
Oth 298 6.6%
Dividing up the current Moray seat in a similar way. The wards of Buckie, Keith & Cullen and Speyside/Glenlivet were in the Banff seat (again roughly speaking) and the remaining five wards of Moray district were in Moray & Nairn. Here there is a much more makred difference witht he SNP being totally dominant in the Banffshire section with both the Conservatives and Labour (with their strength in Elgin) much stronger in Morayshire.
Banffshire
SNP 4731 40.5%
Con 1311 11.2%
Lab 507 4.3%
LD 300 2.6%
Ind 4715 40.4%
Oth 116 1.0%
Morayshire
SNP 7211 32.4%
Con 4063 18.3%
Lab 2438 11.0%
LD 287 1.3%
Ind 7820 35.1%
Oth 438 2.0%
It seems clear from this that the old Banffshire would have been very safely SNP – more so than either Moray or Banff & Buchan. Moray & Nairn on the other hand may have been an awful lot closer (but massive caveats because of that Independent vote). It would certainly be worthwhile to look at the breakdown of the Scottish parliament election results in these wards to get a clearer picture.
2007, Holyrood, votes cast on the day:
Banff (both Aberdeenshire ward and Moray wards, as Pete has it):
SNP 7514 (56.5)
Con 2382 (17.9)
LD 1837 (13.8)
Lab 1476 (11.1)
Oth 80 (0.6)
‘Buchan’ (other six wards of B&B)
SNP 12504 (58.8)
Con 4012 (18.8)
LD 2427 (11.4)
Lab 2269 (10.7)
Oth 51 (0.2)
Moray and Nairn (other Moray wards, plus Nairn ward in Highland)
SNP 10707 (47.7)
Con 4845 (21.6)
Lab 3709 (16.5)
LD 3189 (14.2)
Oth none
So Banff would have been much more strongly SNP than Moray & Nairn, but M&N would still have been pretty safely SNP, in part because of the very split opposition. (Actually, Labour didn’t poll very well in Elgin in 2007: they came third behind the Tories, though the two Elgin wards were still their best in the Moray council area.)
“but M&N would still have been pretty safely SNP”
In 2007 yes.. I was saying it may have been fairly close in 2010 (on the assumption that the SNP were much stronger in the ex-Banffshire part of the seat than in Morayshire and vice versa the Tories). Your figures though, which expunge the Independent votes, show the Tory vote more evenly spread than the breakdown from the local elections did.
It occurs to me how badly the SNP did out of the various sets of boundary changes from 1983 onwards. If the pre-1983 boundaries were still in use the SNP would have 3 seats in Grampian where there are now 2. Also there were 3 seats in Tayside which they would have won in 2010 which are now covered by the 2 seats of Angus and Perth & North Pertshire (Angus S, Perth/E Perthshire, Kinross/W Perthshire). Moreover they would probably have had a very good chance of winning Angus North & Mearns. So in the rural areas of the former Grampian and Tayside regions they could potentially have 7 seats where they currently have 4.
as opposed to the 6 of 59 (1 in 10) which they did win.
They would probably also win Galloway if it had not been merged with Dumfries (though obviously it would not be notionally SNP based on actual 2010 voting figures). The only consolation for them is that they have Dundee East which I guess they would not have on the old boundaries (without Carnoustie and Monifieth).
Basically they would have been able to win 9 of 72 seats on the old boundaries (1 in
Conversely the LDs have done well out of the deal as depsite there being fewer seats overall they have two extra seats which they either definitely (Dunbartonshire East) or probably (Aberdeesnire West) would not have had
(1 in 8 )