Banbury
2010 Results:
Conservative: 29703 (52.81%)
Labour: 10773 (19.16%)
Liberal Democrat: 11476 (20.41%)
UKIP: 2806 (4.99%)
Green: 959 (1.71%)
Independent: 524 (0.93%)
Majority: 18227 (32.4%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 25073 (46.8%)
Labour: 14973 (27.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 9577 (17.9%)
Other: 3970 (7.4%)
Majority: 10101 (18.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 26382 (46.9%)
Labour: 15585 (27.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 10076 (17.9%)
Green: 1590 (2.8%)
UKIP: 1241 (2.2%)
Other: 1335 (2.4%)
Majority: 10797 (19.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 23271 (45.2%)
Labour: 18052 (35%)
Liberal Democrat: 8216 (15.9%)
UKIP: 695 (1.3%)
Green: 1281 (2.5%)
Majority: 5219 (10.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 25076 (42.9%)
Labour: 20339 (34.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 9761 (16.7%)
Referendum: 2245 (3.8%)
Other: 1025 (1.8%)
Majority: 4737 (8.1%)
Boundary changes: Loses Otmoor and Kirtlington to Henley.
Profile: Northernmost seat in Oxfordshire, covering most of Cherwell district council. Main towns are Banbury and the fast growing commuter town Bicester. It`s position on the M40 and the rail line into Marylebone makes it a popular and affluent commuter area for both London and Birmingham. There is a military prescence from the Royal Logistic Corps and the former RAF station at Bicester. This has been a solidly Conservative seat since 1922.
Current MP: Tony Baldry(Conservative) born 1950. Educated at Leighton Park School and Sussex University. Barrister and former aide to Margaret Thatcher. Colonel in the territorial army. Contested Thurrock 1979. First elected as MP for Banbury in 1983. Junior miister in the departments of energy, the environment and the foreign officer between 1990-1995. Minister of state for agriculture 1995-1997 (more information at They work for you)
Tony Baldry(Conservative) born 1950. Educated at Leighton Park School and Sussex University. Barrister and former aide to Margaret Thatcher. Colonel in the territorial army. Contested Thurrock 1979. First elected as MP for Banbury in 1983. Junior miister in the departments of energy, the environment and the foreign officer between 1990-1995. Minister of state for agriculture 1995-1997 (more information at They work for you)
Les Sibley (Labour) Former civil servant at MOD Bicester. Oxford county councillor since 2001. Cherwell councillor since 1995. Contested Banbury 2001, 2005.
David Rundle (Liberal Democrat) Renaissance historian. Oxford councillor and leader of the Lib Dem group on Oxford council.
Alastair White (Green)
David Fairweather (UKIP) Born 1948. Educated at Cambridge University. Consultant physician and Oxford fellow.Roseanne Edwards (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 108214
Male: 49.6%
Female: 50.4%
Under 18: 23.8%
Over 60: 16.9%
Born outside UK: 6.9%
White: 96.2%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 1.6%
Mixed: 1.1%
Other: 0.6%
Christian: 75.4%
Muslim: 1.2%
Full time students: 2%
Graduates 16-74: 19.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 24.5%
Owner-Occupied: 73.6%
Social Housing: 13.7% (Council: 8.4%, Housing Ass.: 5.3%)
Privately Rented: 9.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.3%
Con Hold
Maj 15200
Con maj 16,000
I only see this seat changing hands, if the Liberal Democrats somehow convince Baldry to defect.
CON HOLD
Judging by the predictions made on this thread, the 18,000 majority was larger than many (if any) expected.
Like neighbouring South Northamptonshire the population of this seat remains significantly above the national average… but if the reduction in the number of seats goes ahead as planned, both seats will presumably remain laregly intact.
Has Bicester been in this seat since it was created in 1553?
1553? That long ago?
It appears that one of the seat’s first MPs was Sir Francis Walsingham, one of Queen Elizabeth I’s Principal Secretaries. He was also elected for Lyme Regis, Dorset which he “chose to represent”.
Ride a cock horse to Banbury Cross
To see a fine lady upon a white horse
With rings on her fingers and bells on her toes
She shall have music wherever she goes
John D,
Yes, it looks to me like Banbury will remain largely unchanged, probably losing a couple of wards at the southern end (Launton and Ambrosden and Chesterton), or parts thereof (if it lost all of both wards it would be 538 voters less than the absolute maximum permitted size). I have looked at 3 possible configurations (in response to comments on the OxWAb thread), and on the most plausible, they would move into Henley constituency (but if all of both wards moved Henley might come within 73 voters of the maximum size on 2010 electorates). If there was a bigger shake-up so Oxford West didn’t cross the city boundary, then the two wards currently in Banbury would move into an Oxford E and Thame, while if there was the pretty implausible Oxford Inner and Oxford Outer, they would be in Oxford Outer.
Even on the proposed reduction to 600 seats with an average of 76,000 +/- 5% this seat cannot survive. The pairing of Bicester and Banbury is at an end. My exemplification of seats under the new rules( which I freely admit is only one of many possibilities) links Bicester with East Oxford
Labour has always hoped that this seat would be reduced as John describes, but up to now it has kept on surviving. Of course, it would take conditions probably even more landslidish than 1997 to make it winnable since Labour polls poorly anywhere more than about 3 miles from Banbury itself, which is nothing like large enough to dominate the constituency and not strongly Labour enough to make it a viable seat. Labour could conceivably have got closer in 1997 – I remember there was very little evidence of a serious Labour effort, less for example than in Witney next door – but in the event Tony Baldry survived pretty comfortably. It was a rather similar result to Bromsgrove though arguably this seat should have been slightly the better one for the party.
It would have been fairly close in 1997. Labour must have carried the town of Banbury in that election and maybe also in 2001.
Con vote is 10.0% up on 1997
(allowing for a minor boundary change).
Tony Baldry stood in Thurrock in 1979.
Labour would have carried Banbury town easily in 1997 and 2001 (by around a 15% margin) and also in 2005 with a smaller margin. It would have been very close in 1992 probably narrowly Tory
I was trying to think of other safe Conservative seats named after the main town which is itself quite Labour. I could only think of the old Northwich and Runcorn constituencies in the old Cheshire.
Can Banbury (town) be described as “quite Labour” when they only hold one council seat with “Banbury” in the name, and only 2 seats across Cherwell District? (They don’t hold any of the “Cherwell” seats at county level after 2009 – having won 2 of the 5 “Banbury” ones in 2005)
SJBME19 – until it changed its name last year Bridgwater was an excellent example. One could perhaps argue for Stone as well. or indeed Macclesfield.
The new seats of Braintree and Witham are quite good examples too as is Daventry
‘I was trying to think of other safe Conservative seats named after the main town which is itself quite Labour.’
I’d add Boston and Bury St Edmunds to that list – they are pretty safe Tory seats now – as is Clacton in Essex
‘Can Banbury (town) be described as “quite Labour” when they only hold one council seat with “Banbury” in the name, and only 2 seats across Cherwell District? (They don’t hold any of the “Cherwell” seats at county level after 2009 – having won 2 of the 5 “Banbury” ones in 2005)’
I’m more familiar with Bicester and the northern villages of this seat than Banbury itself but I’d probably describe Banbury as ‘evenly balanced’ in an even year on the basis of the May 2011 results.
Regarding some of the other posts, I doubt Labour could have done any better in 97/01. They really did quite well to get within 10% in 97.
‘I’m more familiar with Bicester and the northern villages of this seat than Banbury itself but I’d probably describe Banbury as ‘evenly balanced’ in an even year on the basis of the May 2011 results.’
Away from the picturesque town centre, with its cross etc there’s quite a lot of council housing and manufacturing companies on the outskirts
I would have thought Labour would have won in Banbury town – certainly in 1997 – to get within 10% of taking the seat
Labour took four of the five Banbury town county council divisions in both 1993 and 1997. Easington was held by the Tories; Grimsbury, Hardwick and Neithrop were safe in 1993 but relatively marginal in 1997; Ruscote was safe in both years. In both years, Bicester elected Tories, though Labour won the Cherwell district seats in their annus mirabilis of 1995. The rural parts of the seat were all heavily Tory, though a Lib Dem won in Yarnton/Otmoor in 1993 (albeit in a two-horse race with no Labour candidate).
Thanks for the info Aidan – you obviously know the area well
The tory vote held up quite well in Banbury town this year. Labour must have been bitterly disappointed to not gain Grimsbury and Castle ward (although it could have been a rare example of differential turnout this year harming Labour).
Id imagine this seat is trending tory in common with other rural “outer south” rural seats like Norfolk NW. Certainly swung heavily since 1997.
As it happens I visited this seat in the early part of the 1997 campaign, and it was striking how few Labour posters were up compared with Witney next door (pre-Cameron & with Shaun Woodward standing for the Tories, of course). The rather easy victory for Baldry therefore came as little surprise; in truth Labour has never been that close here & it would take a radical boundary change involving the chopping out of a large rural area (and probably Bicester) to give the party even a slight chance, in a very good year.
My grandfather was a conservative party cllr here in the 1970s (for whatever division covered Wroxton etc back then)
2015 most likely
Con 51.1 (-1.7)
Lab 25.9 (+6.7)
LD 11.4 (-9)
UKIP 7.2 (+2.2)
Others 4.4
Turnout 64.5%
I don’t think Bicester has always been in this seat, wasn’t it in Henley until 1950?
Harry Porter: indeed, that’s right.
Thank you!
It was in Henley until 1974
It is safe to bet that Labour will take a clear second here I think, new boundaries or not.
But the C vote recovered better than average in the last 3 elections, and I think is probably only about 1% down on 1992.
But as Pete has explained some time back, this is not the same seat which Labour came pretty close in in 1945.