Ayrshire Central
2010 Results:
Conservative: 8943 (20.36%)
Labour: 20950 (47.71%)
Liberal Democrat: 5236 (11.92%)
SNP: 8364 (19.05%)
Socialist Labour: 422 (0.96%)
Majority: 12007 (27.35%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 19905 (46.4%)
Conservative: 9482 (22.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6881 (16.1%)
SNP: 4969 (11.6%)
Other: 1634 (3.8%)
Majority: 10423 (24.3%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Cunninghame South.
2001 Result
Conservative: 2682 (9.6%)
Labour: 16424 (58.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 2094 (7.5%)
SNP: 5194 (18.5%)
Other: 1615 (5.8%)
Majority: 11230 (40.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 3571 (10.1%)
Labour: 22233 (62.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 1604 (4.5%)
SNP: 7364 (20.8%)
Referendum: 178 (0.5%)
Other: 494 (1.4%)
Majority: 14869 (42%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Brian H Donohoe(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Maurice Golden (Conservative) Educated at Dundee University. Environmental campaigns manager. Contested Fife Central in 2007 Scottish election, Glenrothes by-election 2008.Brian H Donohoe(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Andrew Chamberlain (Liberal Democrat)John Mullen (SNP) James McDaid (Socialist Labour) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88006
Male: 47.6%
Female: 52.4%
Under 18: 23.3%
Over 60: 21.5%
Born outside UK: 2.2%
White: 99.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 70%
Graduates 16-74: 16.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34.6%
Owner-Occupied: 66.2%
Social Housing: 26.4% (Council: 22.8%, Housing Ass.: 3.6%)
Privately Rented: 3.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 2.5%
A safe Labour seat, except maybe in a Tory landslide.
Yes, I think this seat includes Troon & Prestwick, both very Tory areas, but they’re swamped by the strong Labour majority elsewhere.
This seat is very similar to the Ayrshire Central which existed before 1983.
It was a Tory seat in 1955, when the Tories and Labour were very close in Scotland overall, and was one of 4 seats in Scotland which fell to Labour in 1959 (Glasgow Craigton, Glasgow Scotstoun, Lanark and Ayrshire Central).
Tories also regained the Glasgow Kelvingrove seat they had lost in a 1958, albeit with a much smaller majority than in 1955.
When Troon & Prestwick were moved to Ayr in 1983, the new Cunningham South became a solid Labour seat. The old boundaries were restored in 2005.
Phil Gallie has been selected to stand as the Tory. Think he was the former MP for Ayr, very good move from the conservatives he is an excellent politician and increased the Tory vote when he stood in Carrick, Cumnock and the Doon Valley by about 7%. He wont win but could increase the Vote well for the Conservatives.
Phil Gallie has a very good record. He limited the swing in Ayr in 1997 to one of the lowest in Scotland and indeed the whole UK (possibly the lowest in Scotland). IN 2001 he stood again and secured a large positive swing back reducing the LAbour majority to 2500. If Ayr had been fought on those old boundaries in 2005 and he had stood again its quite likely he would have won.
That’s absolutely right, Pete. He probably would have won. The boundary change cost Labour 1 seat in the short term here, but in reality have shafted the Tories. His dedication in standing for the Tories in divisions he can’t win as well as those he can (he’s stood for example in Carrick Cumnock & Doon Valley as well) is noteworthy.
To be honest, the candidacy in Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley perhaps isn’t as noble as you might think: Ayr – his first choice – had been taken, following John Scott’s victory in the 2000 By-Election, and Tory rules are strict: in order to get a place on the Regional List, you have to have been selected for a Constituency. CCDV was a means to an end, though it has to be said that he did well, taking the Tories into second place.
Even on the old boundaries, Labour would have walked home in Ayr in 2005.
George Younger ‘retired’ rather than face the music in 1992.
It was only the SNP splitting the Labour vote in Ayr which allowed Phil Gallie to slip in the back door in 1992. Something Scotland will never forgive the SNP for.
The Tories were swept out of Ayr in 1997, and will never again get a foothold in the town.
..except that they gained the seat of Ayr (identical to the one lost in 1997) in a 2000 Scottish Parlilament byelection, and have held it ever since. I guess you could call that a foothold?
Ian what are you talking about? The conservatives have won ayr in scottish parliamentary elections in 2000, 2003 and 2007 increasing the majority every time. Furthermore the council has been trending conservative with one of the largest number of tory gains in 1999 coming here followed by a 15-15 split in 2003. after a subsequent by-election this became the first – and due to stv i fear last – outright tory controlled council in scotland. in 2007 the tories remained the biggest party with 12 to labours 9. the tories have real strength in the town and indeed it was our inability ot take the marginal rural wards that meant labour held on at local level for longer.
Ian does tend to do this, Scottish Conservative. Every seat in the UK is a potential Labour gain.
……..especially in Scotland. He seems to think that Scotland is full of working-class people who are desperate to vote Labour, which is of course for many constituencies totally false. Although apparently he’s a supporter of my party, please ignore him.
“Even on the old boundaries, Labour would have walked home in Ayr in 2005.
George Younger ‘retired’ rather than face the music in 1992.
It was only the SNP splitting the Labour vote in Ayr which allowed Phil Gallie to slip in the back door in 1992. Something Scotland will never forgive the SNP for.
The Tories were swept out of Ayr in 1997, and will never again get a foothold in the town.”
Do events in Windsor mean that you have to predict the stupidest scenarios elsewhere in the UK to compensate? It is quite simply wrong to state that the SNP actually took votes from Labour in 1992 – in fact, both Labour and the Tory totals increased in Ayr in 1992. George Younger did think he was going to lose in 1992, indeed, but Phil Gallie did very well to hold on here and did so because of te sheer amount of effort the Tories put into Ayr – not because of SNP vote splitting or what have you.
Also, Scotland appeared to have forgiven the SNP pretty well for vote splitting – so much so that they defeated your party in 2007! And as others have pointed out, your claim that the Tories have no foothold here is complete nonsense.
Of course, by Ian’s logic, Labour are themselves traitors to Scotland for splitting the anti-Tory vote in Galloway & Upper Nithsdale in 2001.
He seems somewhat quiet about that point, though.
Will, although I applaud his support for the Labour Party, I do think that, in psephological matters,the words “Ian’s” and “logic” don’t sit that well next to each other.
I suppose, Barnaby, it depends on whether you view logic as absolute and universal, or relative and highly subjective. If it’s the latter, then Ian gets a minor let-off. Though there would still be questions about how his logic has developed.
Anyway, to steep this back to topic (sort of), I was under the impression that Gallie was wanting to stand for the European Parliament in 2009. Does anyone know if that’s still on? I suppose it would be tempting to go for the ‘hat trick’ of MP, MSP and MEP. Though I’m not sure that he’d appreciate me saying that if he were successful, he’d be following in the footsteps of Winnie Ewing!
A problem for Phil Gallie in getting into the European Parliament is that the number of Scottish MEPs looks like being reduced by one. On the basis of the last result the loser would have been John Purvis who was number two on the Conservative list. JP is retiring (which would make his list place available to Phil Gallie) but, so far as I know, Struan Stevenson is not. As he is likely to be number one (again) on the Tory list that would mean the Tories would have to gain more votes than Labour or the SNP to get the second seat and return Purvis’s successor. A pretty tough prospect.
A further problem for Gallie is that the Tories have reportedly made plans for the second place on the list to go to a female candidate. That would put Gallie at best third, which is a nigh-on impossible prospect.
Phil Gallie also stood in Cunninghame South in 1983 and Dunfermline West in 1987.
I suppose it is just possible to envisage a Tory victory here – if the SNP increase their share by 15% to 26.6%, and the Tories increase their vote by 5% to 27.1%. If all those increases come from Labour, they’d be down 20% to 26.4%, but it’s almost impossible to think it would actually happen.
I very much doubt if this is on the Scottish Tories’ target list for the next general election.
This seat could, if Labour crumble badly, start to resemble a three-way marginal, if both Gallie and the Nats eat into the Labour vote and hold down the LDs. But it’s difficult to see Labour going below 35% at the very worst in one go, and that should ensure they hold the seat.
My prediction for this seat;
Labour 18500
Cons 13500
SNP 9000
Lib Dem 4000
Others 1500
I read Phil Gallie wanted to be an MEP on wikipedia, and I had wondered why he stood dow from the scottish parliament. I think his candidacy will help the Conservatives who ought to remain (at least) 2nd. I wonder why he didn’t resign from the SP to stand in the Ayr by-election? I had to admire him standing in 1999 and 2001 in the seat he’d lost as it showed he was something of a tryer and didn’t just disappear after the Labour landslide, although he didn’t seem to have much luck beyond his shock 1992 victory. He’s no spring chicken either so will he ever make it to the great noble corridors of power in Brussels?
“Fiery Phil” has always delivered results distinctly superior to those of his party in Scotland. This was certainly the case when he held Ayr in 92 and also in 97 when he restricted Labour to one of their lowest swings – and he also had a great result when he stood in Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley sometime later. This is not to predict an actual gain here, but he will make it interesting at the very least.
Am confused – according to the Scottish Conservatives site, Maurice Golden (who was Glenrothes candidate) is the candidate here!
Matt, a byelection candidate need not necessarily stick around for the General Election – I believe our (Tory) candidate in Glasgow E is now standing in Glasgow S at the next GE?
My confusion is regarding whats happened to Phil Gallie!!!
Ayr Central Predictions: 2010
Labour: 18820 (-2.5%) 43.9%
Conservative: 12132 (+6.2%) 28.3%
SNP: (+7.3%) 8102 18.9%
Liberal Democrat: 428 -10.6% 1%
Majority: 6688 (down from10423)
Turnout being equal at: 42871
Note, the good Conservative % increase is 2% above latest Scottish National swing, I put this down the what I call the “Phil Gallie factor”.
Ld’s to get less than 500 votes?!
Dean, Phil Gallie is no longer the candidate here, and as much as I would like it, the Lib Dems will get more than 1%!
Keep the hair on – Dean just got his maths wrong. A 10.6% drop would leave the Libdems with 5.5% – about 2354 votes. Would be nice if they were on 1% though, wouldn’t it.
Anybody know what happened to Phil Gallie?
I’ve been meaning to ask that myself P.U.M.P. On his wikipedia it said he wanted to become an MEP but as we can see he’s not on the list.
Do any Scots tories out there know?
Lab hold by about 7,000. Anybody else think that sounds about right?
Labour hold by about 4000 sounds more accurate.
Nope- Labour hold with 6000 I’d say.
Is there a chance for an above average swing away from Labour, on a scale to both SNP and Scottish Tory & Unionist which would result in a labour defeat?
I am thinking:
Labour: 28.4% (-10 to SNP, -7 to tory)
Conservative: 29.1% (+7)
Liberal Democrat: 13.1% (-3)
SNP: 23.6% (+10 from labour, + 2 from Libs)
Majority: con unionist victory of 0.7%
I know it is hardly the most likely, but it certainly isn’t impossible.
On my last post- i’m sorry there is a lost 1% liberal vote which didnt go anywhere- that ought to have gone to tories- so the majority would be 1.7%.
I think I made a comment in 2008 saying the same thing, but it isn’t very realistic of course.
This seat was Tory until 1959, and the boundaries are similar to then, Donohoe’s predecessor Lambie having taken the seat from the Tories.
The swing required from Lab to Con, is just over 12% (less than the swing from Con to Lab in Eastwood/ East Renfrewshire or Dumfries in 1997), so a Conservative gain is possible but not likely.
If the Labour majority here fell to 4000, that would be a good result for the Tories.
I’d be surprised if this was a Tory gain or a close result, but don’t have the detailed knowledge.
Perhaps a majority about halved, as most likely
A close result would require Troon and Prestwick to come out on mass for the Tories and Labour to face a strong challenge from the SNP in Irvine, and the SNP polled 11% here in 2005 but normally they take far more in Cunningham South.
The SNP have selected John Mullen here
Like the neighbouring seat AC&C, the LD’s and SNP will probably swap places and the Lab majority will be reduced.
Which seats have included Prestwick?
Which constituencies have included Prestwick?
Ayr I believe, some of the time.
Prestwick has always been in Ayr since at least 1918.
It was Troon that was in Ayrshire Central until 1983, and back again since 2005
Lab Hold= 8,000 maj