Ayrshire Central
2005 Results:
Labour: 19905 (46.4%)
Conservative: 9482 (22.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6881 (16.1%)
SNP: 4969 (11.6%)
Other: 1634 (3.8%)
Majority: 10423 (24.3%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Cunninghame South.
2001 Result
Conservative: 2682 (9.6%)
Labour: 16424 (58.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 2094 (7.5%)
SNP: 5194 (18.5%)
Other: 1615 (5.8%)
Majority: 11230 (40.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 3571 (10.1%)
Labour: 22233 (62.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 1604 (4.5%)
SNP: 7364 (20.8%)
Referendum: 178 (0.5%)
Other: 494 (1.4%)
Majority: 14869 (42%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Outgoing MP: Brian H Donohoe(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Maurice Golden (Conservative) Educated at Dundee University. Environmental campaigns manager. Contested Fife Central in 2007 Scottish election, Glenrothes by-election 2008.Brian H Donohoe(Labour) (more information at They work for you)Andrew Chamberlain (Liberal Democrat)John Mullen (SNP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88006
Male: 47.6%
Female: 52.4%
Under 18: 23.3%
Over 60: 21.5%
Born outside UK: 2.2%
White: 99.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 70%
Graduates 16-74: 16.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34.6%
Owner-Occupied: 66.2%
Social Housing: 26.4% (Council: 22.8%, Housing Ass.: 3.6%)
Privately Rented: 3.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 2.5%
Dean, Phil Gallie is no longer the candidate here, and as much as I would like it, the Lib Dems will get more than 1%!
Keep the hair on – Dean just got his maths wrong. A 10.6% drop would leave the Libdems with 5.5% – about 2354 votes. Would be nice if they were on 1% though, wouldn’t it.
Anybody know what happened to Phil Gallie?
I’ve been meaning to ask that myself P.U.M.P. On his wikipedia it said he wanted to become an MEP but as we can see he’s not on the list.
Do any Scots tories out there know?
Lab hold by about 7,000. Anybody else think that sounds about right?
Labour hold by about 4000 sounds more accurate.
Nope- Labour hold with 6000 I’d say.
Is there a chance for an above average swing away from Labour, on a scale to both SNP and Scottish Tory & Unionist which would result in a labour defeat?
I am thinking:
Labour: 28.4% (-10 to SNP, -7 to tory)
Conservative: 29.1% (+7)
Liberal Democrat: 13.1% (-3)
SNP: 23.6% (+10 from labour, + 2 from Libs)
Majority: con unionist victory of 0.7%
I know it is hardly the most likely, but it certainly isn’t impossible.
On my last post- i’m sorry there is a lost 1% liberal vote which didnt go anywhere- that ought to have gone to tories- so the majority would be 1.7%.
I think I made a comment in 2008 saying the same thing, but it isn’t very realistic of course.
This seat was Tory until 1959, and the boundaries are similar to then, Donohoe’s predecessor Lambie having taken the seat from the Tories.
The swing required from Lab to Con, is just over 12% (less than the swing from Con to Lab in Eastwood/ East Renfrewshire or Dumfries in 1997), so a Conservative gain is possible but not likely.
If the Labour majority here fell to 4000, that would be a good result for the Tories.
I’d be surprised if this was a Tory gain or a close result, but don’t have the detailed knowledge.
Perhaps a majority about halved, as most likely
A close result would require Troon and Prestwick to come out on mass for the Tories and Labour to face a strong challenge from the SNP in Irvine, and the SNP polled 11% here in 2005 but normally they take far more in Cunningham South.
The SNP have selected John Mullen here
Like the neighbouring seat AC&C, the LD’s and SNP will probably swap places and the Lab majority will be reduced.