Comments on: Ayr Carrick and Cumnock

By: Andrea

Andrea — Tue, 10 May 2011 08:22:56 +0000

Regional vote in Ayr constituency

SNP 14,377
Con 8,539

By: Calum W

Calum W — Tue, 10 May 2011 00:28:08 +0000

And the Ayr result:
John Scott Conservative 12,997 38.9 -1
Chic Brodie SNP 11,884 35.6 +9.3
Gordon Shearer McKenzie Labour 7,779 23.3 -4
Eileen Margaret Taylor Liberal Democrat 713 2.1 -3.7
Majority 1,113
Swing 5.2% from Conservative to SNP
The tories held up fairly well here to be honest.

By: Calum W

Calum W — Tue, 10 May 2011 00:23:28 +0000

Carrick, Cumnock and the Doon Valley was one of the biggest shocks of the night, perhaps up there with Anniesland and Hamilton as one that was totally inconceivable until it happened. It was mostly a straight swing from Labour to the SNP, with the LDs not being any kind of force in this seat anyway but still managing to lose just under half their vote.
Adam Ingram SNP 13,250 46.2 +15.7
Richard Leonard Labour 10,669 37.2 -7.8
Peter Kennerley Conservative 4,160 14.5 -3.8
Andrew Chamberlain Liberal Democrat 624 2.2 -1.6
Majority 2,581
Swing 11.8% from Labour to SNP

By: calumsmith_0308

calumsmith_0308 — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 18:16:49 +0000

I agree with you here, Dalek and certainly hope that we will not do as badly in May as polls currently suggest, in which we would only hold Berwickshire and nowhere else!

Surely the 16% or whatever it was we won in 2007 is basically our core support, so to go much below that really would be bad…

By: Dalek

Dalek — Sun, 30 Jan 2011 17:45:52 +0000

Other than Galloway & West Dumfries, I believe that Ayr is the second strongest seat in Scotland.

Roxburgh & Berwickshire (due to the current LD poll ratings) would appear more secure than the amended Edinburgh Pentlands (that has half the Conservative majority).

Currently, Eastwood has the largest Notional Conservative majority but I think the Conservatives have a better chance of hold Edinburgh Pentlands.

Eastwood remains a better Conservative prospect, however, than the tight ultra notional Con/ Lab marginal of Dumfriesshire East.

The Conseratives have possibly an outside chance in Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine (though current Scottish polls would suggest that an SNP gain there would be just as likely a prospect).

By: calumsmith_0308

calumsmith_0308 — Sun, 30 Jan 2011 16:38:48 +0000

Very sorry to hear about the death of Phil Gallie. It was very admirable the way he cared for his ailing wife as well as remaining committed to his job at Holyrood. He seems to have been a conviction politician, but one that was popular with his constituents, perhaps in part because of that.

In spite of the lacklustre figures for us at the moment, I think we should hold on to the Ayr constituency this year, albeit with a reduced majority.

By: Andy JS

Andy JS — Wed, 26 Jan 2011 03:35:02 +0000

Phil Gallie has sadly died.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 21:53:25 +0000

“Anyone know how the old Ayr const would have voted this GE?”

The actual 2005 and 2010 results are both very similar to the 2001 notional result for Ayr C & C.

As the actual result for Ayr was a 2500 Labour majority, I would assume it would still be along these lines in 2010.

The 1983 – 1997 boundaries would be alot closer still – on the knife edge.

By: John D

John D — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 17:55:30 +0000

He did well to hold the seat on the retirement of George Younger.

In terms of the ’92 election, Michael Forsyth and James Douglas Hamilton managed to cling on in similar fashion, with very small majorities, but of course they had incumbency on their side.

By: Stephen Botfield

Stephen Botfield — Tue, 25 Jan 2011 17:30:49 +0000

‘Phil Gallie, Conservative MP for Ayr 1992-97, has died at the age of 71.’
Apart from being a politician he was also a power station manager.