Ayr Carrick and Cumnock
2010 Results:
Conservative: 11721 (25.54%)
Labour: 21632 (47.14%)
Liberal Democrat: 4264 (9.29%)
SNP: 8276 (18.03%)
Majority: 9911 (21.6%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 20433 (45.4%)
Conservative: 10436 (23.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6341 (14.1%)
SNP: 5932 (13.2%)
Other: 1906 (4.2%)
Majority: 9997 (22.2%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley.
2001 Result
Conservative: 7318 (18.2%)
Labour: 22174 (55.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 2932 (7.3%)
SNP: 6258 (15.6%)
Other: 1425 (3.6%)
Majority: 14856 (37%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8336 (17%)
Labour: 29398 (59.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 2613 (5.3%)
SNP: 8190 (16.7%)
Referendum: 634 (1.3%)
Majority: 21062 (42.8%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Sandra Osborne(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
William Grant (Conservative) Sandra Osborne(Labour) (more information at They work for you)James Taylor (Liberal Democrat)Charles Brodie (SNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 93131
Male: 47.7%
Female: 52.3%
Under 18: 22.2%
Over 60: 24.4%
Born outside UK: 2.2%
White: 99.4%
Asian: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 69.5%
Graduates 16-74: 16.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.6%
Owner-Occupied: 63.4%
Social Housing: 27.3% (Council: 24.8%, Housing Ass.: 2.5%)
Privately Rented: 5.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.1%
Tory gain 3,000 labour vote v soft and signs of turning to BNP
LAB HOLD
The above prediction is one of the most ridiculous I’ve seen here yet.
not my prediction of course! – which is simply wonderful. Tayside does talk & write a lot of bollocks.
Lol. I was going to say Barnaby, that was very honest of you
You are quite right of course. I’m starting to wish I had just stuck to giving a party hold or gain instead of a stab at a majority.
I’m also starting to wish that I’d waited like you until the closing days of the campaign instead of going at the beginning and expecting little to change throughout.
The first leaders debate really put the Lib Dems on the map, and I can now see a number of seats where I have predicted Labour holds now going Lib Dem. I can also see one or two Tory seats potentially going Lib Dem too (solihull and eastbourne particularly). I can also now see several safer Labour seats where I predicted holds now going Tory.
I have to congratulate Taysider for giving me the best laugh Ive had in ages.
The Labour vote here is v soft!!! Its Cumnock, home of J Keir Hardie, one of the most rock solid Labour votes in the UK.
I predict Taysider is 14.
Ayr is probably the most likely Tory hold next year
Ayr 2011
Con 13500
Lab 12000
SNP 8200
LD 1800
Whist its currently the Tories largest notional majority, they are holding off a challenge from Labour here, who are likely to be the only ones to be making any kind of headway vs 2007, so whilst I’d expect them to hold Ayr (but it will be close) at the end of the night, they might have larger majorities in Galloway (with labour moving into second) or Ettrick (where everything might remain pretty static).
Con 12929
Lab 12636
SNP 6983
Lib Dem 1981
Ayr May 2011 (not AC&C 2015)
I hope to God that the Tories at least hold Ayr next year..
Carrick Cumnock and Doon Valley 2011
Lab 17250
SNP 8500
Con 6250
LD 1000
Anyone know how the old Ayr const would have voted this GE?
I’m surprised Labour has not yet chosen a candidate for Ayr, its a seat which you think they would be determined to win back!
Yes, it is an significant marginal this one, but given that they only won it by a mere 25 votes in 1999 and lost it significantly in a 2000 by-election, I would suggest that they put their efforts into winning seats such as Eastwood and many seats that the SNP gained from then in 2007, Stirling being a clear example.
I wasn’t sure whether to put his here or on the Central Ayrshire thread.
Phil Gallie, Conservative MP for Ayr 1992-97, has died at the age of 71.
He was also a regionally elected MSP 1999-2007.
That’s unfortunate. He was presumably a relatively popular MP and later MSP.
I’ve also noticed that labour has chosen the former Lord Provost of South Ayrshire Council, Gordon Mckenzie to contest Ayr at Holyrood.
I don’t know the Ayr area at all… what chance of a Labour gain in May?
A narrow chance I’d imagine. The MSP for ayr is second on the south of scotland list.
Its not impossible that Labour can win the Ayr seat but its not a priority target.
If we do win here then you will know that we are having a very good night indeed.
‘Phil Gallie, Conservative MP for Ayr 1992-97, has died at the age of 71′
RIP
He was very highly regarded by his constituents
‘Phil Gallie, Conservative MP for Ayr 1992-97, has died at the age of 71.’
Apart from being a politician he was also a power station manager.
He did well to hold the seat on the retirement of George Younger.
In terms of the ’92 election, Michael Forsyth and James Douglas Hamilton managed to cling on in similar fashion, with very small majorities, but of course they had incumbency on their side.
“Anyone know how the old Ayr const would have voted this GE?”
The actual 2005 and 2010 results are both very similar to the 2001 notional result for Ayr C & C.
As the actual result for Ayr was a 2500 Labour majority, I would assume it would still be along these lines in 2010.
The 1983 – 1997 boundaries would be alot closer still – on the knife edge.
Phil Gallie has sadly died.
Very sorry to hear about the death of Phil Gallie. It was very admirable the way he cared for his ailing wife as well as remaining committed to his job at Holyrood. He seems to have been a conviction politician, but one that was popular with his constituents, perhaps in part because of that.
In spite of the lacklustre figures for us at the moment, I think we should hold on to the Ayr constituency this year, albeit with a reduced majority.
Other than Galloway & West Dumfries, I believe that Ayr is the second strongest seat in Scotland.
Roxburgh & Berwickshire (due to the current LD poll ratings) would appear more secure than the amended Edinburgh Pentlands (that has half the Conservative majority).
Currently, Eastwood has the largest Notional Conservative majority but I think the Conservatives have a better chance of hold Edinburgh Pentlands.
Eastwood remains a better Conservative prospect, however, than the tight ultra notional Con/ Lab marginal of Dumfriesshire East.
The Conseratives have possibly an outside chance in Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine (though current Scottish polls would suggest that an SNP gain there would be just as likely a prospect).
I agree with you here, Dalek and certainly hope that we will not do as badly in May as polls currently suggest, in which we would only hold Berwickshire and nowhere else!
Surely the 16% or whatever it was we won in 2007 is basically our core support, so to go much below that really would be bad…
Carrick, Cumnock and the Doon Valley was one of the biggest shocks of the night, perhaps up there with Anniesland and Hamilton as one that was totally inconceivable until it happened. It was mostly a straight swing from Labour to the SNP, with the LDs not being any kind of force in this seat anyway but still managing to lose just under half their vote.
Adam Ingram SNP 13,250 46.2 +15.7
Richard Leonard Labour 10,669 37.2 -7.8
Peter Kennerley Conservative 4,160 14.5 -3.8
Andrew Chamberlain Liberal Democrat 624 2.2 -1.6
Majority 2,581
Swing 11.8% from Labour to SNP
And the Ayr result:
John Scott Conservative 12,997 38.9 -1
Chic Brodie SNP 11,884 35.6 +9.3
Gordon Shearer McKenzie Labour 7,779 23.3 -4
Eileen Margaret Taylor Liberal Democrat 713 2.1 -3.7
Majority 1,113
Swing 5.2% from Conservative to SNP
The tories held up fairly well here to be honest.
Regional vote in Ayr constituency
SNP 14,377
Con 8,539
South Ayrshire Council 2012 Prediction
Con 12 (-)
Lab 9 (-)
SNP 8 (-)
Ind 1 (-)
Ayr Holyrood constituency May 2012:
Con 9731 36.2
SNP 8173 30.4
Lab 6791 25.3
Ind 1901 7.1
LD 255 0.9
(LDs stood in just Ayr W and Prestwick, Inds stood in Troon, Ayr E and Ayr W)