Ayr Carrick and Cumnock
2010 Results:
Conservative: 11721 (25.54%)
Labour: 21632 (47.14%)
Liberal Democrat: 4264 (9.29%)
SNP: 8276 (18.03%)
Majority: 9911 (21.6%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 20433 (45.4%)
Conservative: 10436 (23.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6341 (14.1%)
SNP: 5932 (13.2%)
Other: 1906 (4.2%)
Majority: 9997 (22.2%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election: Name of seat changed from Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley.
2001 Result
Conservative: 7318 (18.2%)
Labour: 22174 (55.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 2932 (7.3%)
SNP: 6258 (15.6%)
Other: 1425 (3.6%)
Majority: 14856 (37%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 8336 (17%)
Labour: 29398 (59.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 2613 (5.3%)
SNP: 8190 (16.7%)
Referendum: 634 (1.3%)
Majority: 21062 (42.8%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Sandra Osborne(Labour) (more information at They work for you)
William Grant (Conservative) Sandra Osborne(Labour) (more information at They work for you)James Taylor (Liberal Democrat)Charles Brodie (SNP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 93131
Male: 47.7%
Female: 52.3%
Under 18: 22.2%
Over 60: 24.4%
Born outside UK: 2.2%
White: 99.4%
Asian: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 69.5%
Graduates 16-74: 16.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 38.6%
Owner-Occupied: 63.4%
Social Housing: 27.3% (Council: 24.8%, Housing Ass.: 2.5%)
Privately Rented: 5.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.1%
If there’s a 10% reduction in the number of seats then the electoral quota would presumably be raised from 70,000 (or thereabouts) to 77,000-78,000, not 90,000. I’d say that anything within 10% either way would probably be regarded as ‘in play’, though the question of what to do with the Highlands and Islands would have to be resolved again. Although I’m not a fan of pairing the islands with the mainland as things currently stand, I could certainly see a point where seats based on Caithness/Sutherland/Orkney/ Shetland and Ross/Skye/Lochaber/Eilean Siar were created.
I think there will necessarily have to be a lot of cross-authority/cross-county/cross-old-region seats in order to make the numbers work. Regarding Bute specifically: point taken about the ferry; it seems astonishing that there isn’t a direct ferry from the Cowal peninsula, given the local government arrangements. Wemyss Bay, of course, is in Inverclyde, but would be in an Ayrshire North & Gourock cross-county seat were one to be created. The sort of seven-seat solution I had in mind was something like:
1) Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock: three Ayr wards, Maybole/N Carrick, Girvan/S Carrick, Cumnock, New Cumnock
2) Kilmarnock & Loudoun: rest of East Ayrshire (Kilmarnock, Stewarton, Irvine Valley, Mauchline, Muirkirk)
3) Ayrshire Central: Troon, Prestwick, Kyle, two Irvine wards, Kilwinning
4) Ayrshire North & Gourock: Stevenston, Saltcoats, Ardrossan, Largs, Arran and Cumbraes, Wemyss Bay, Inverkip, Gourock
5) Renfrewshire North: Greenock, Port Glasgow, Kilmacolm, Bridge of Weir, Bishopton, Erskine, Houston, Linwood
6) Renfrewshire East: current East Renfrewshire, minus Barrhead, plus Johnstone, Kilbarchan and Lochwinnoch
7) Paisley and Barrhead: Paisley, Renfrew, Ralston, Barrhead
Labour
Conservative
SNP
Libdem
Majority – 5000
Lab hold maj 8000
Lab Hold
Maj 7900
Lab maj 7,000
Tory gain 3,000 labour vote v soft and signs of turning to BNP
LAB HOLD
The above prediction is one of the most ridiculous I’ve seen here yet.
not my prediction of course! – which is simply wonderful. Tayside does talk & write a lot of bollocks.
Lol. I was going to say Barnaby, that was very honest of you
You are quite right of course. I’m starting to wish I had just stuck to giving a party hold or gain instead of a stab at a majority.
I’m also starting to wish that I’d waited like you until the closing days of the campaign instead of going at the beginning and expecting little to change throughout.
The first leaders debate really put the Lib Dems on the map, and I can now see a number of seats where I have predicted Labour holds now going Lib Dem. I can also see one or two Tory seats potentially going Lib Dem too (solihull and eastbourne particularly). I can also now see several safer Labour seats where I predicted holds now going Tory.
I have to congratulate Taysider for giving me the best laugh Ive had in ages.
The Labour vote here is v soft!!! Its Cumnock, home of J Keir Hardie, one of the most rock solid Labour votes in the UK.
I predict Taysider is 14.