Arundel and South Downs
2010 Results:
Conservative: 32333 (57.76%)
Labour: 4835 (8.64%)
Liberal Democrat: 15642 (27.94%)
UKIP: 3172 (5.67%)
Majority: 16691 (29.82%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 26594 (51.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 13765 (26.6%)
Labour: 8420 (16.2%)
Other: 3039 (5.9%)
Majority: 12829 (24.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 24752 (49.8%)
Labour: 8482 (17.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 13443 (27.1%)
UKIP: 2700 (5.4%)
Other: 313 (0.6%)
Majority: 11309 (22.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 23969 (52.2%)
Labour: 9488 (20.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 10265 (22.4%)
UKIP: 2167 (4.7%)
Majority: 13704 (29.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 27251 (53.1%)
Labour: 9376 (18.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 13216 (25.7%)
Other: 1494 (2.9%)
Majority: 14035 (27.3%)
Boundary changes: a number of minor changes to take account of ward boundary changes, the most notable being the loss of Burgess Hill Victoria ward to
Profile: Arundel and South Downs is a sprawling Sussex constituency making up much of the rural interior of West Sussex once the coastal towns of Bognor, Worthing and Hove have been carved out into their own constituencies. The seat contains parts of four different local authorities and is made up of picturesque rural villages with no industry of note. Arundel itself, and the castle of the same name, is the historic seat of the Dukes of Norfolk.
The seat was prominent during the 2005 election campaign when the then Conservative MP Howard Flight was secret recorded telling a meeting that the Conservative party would make larger cuts in spending than it had announced. He had the whip withdrawn and, despite threatened legal challenges, eventually stood down as the Conservative candidate.
Current MP: Nick Herbert(Conservative) born 1963. Educated at Haileybury and Magdalene College, Oxford. Herbert was one of only two openly gay Conservative MPs returned in the 2005 election, he currently lives with his partner. Herbert is a former director of public affairs for the British Field Sports Society, chief executive of Business for Sterling and, until first elected in 2005, head of the free market think tank Reform. He backed David Davis in the 2005 leadership contest and, after David Cameron`s election as leader was appointed as spokesman on police reform. Shadow Secretary of state for agriculture since 2009 (more information at They work for you)
Nick Herbert(Conservative) born 1963. Educated at Haileybury and Magdalene College, Oxford. Herbert was one of only two openly gay Conservative MPs returned in the 2005 election, he currently lives with his partner. Herbert is a former director of public affairs for the British Field Sports Society, chief executive of Business for Sterling and, until first elected in 2005, head of the free market think tank Reform. He backed David Davis in the 2005 leadership contest and, after David Cameron`s election as leader was appointed as spokesman on police reform. Shadow Secretary of state for agriculture since 2009 (more information at They work for you)Tim Lunnon (Labour) Derek Deedman (Liberal Democrat) Stuart Bower (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89503
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 21%
Over 60: 27.5%
Born outside UK: 5.8%
White: 98.6%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.6%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 22.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.5%
Owner-Occupied: 78.9%
Social Housing: 10.5% (Council: 4.3%, Housing Ass.: 6.2%)
Privately Rented: 6.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.4%
Maybe so, but there is absolutely no evidence to support Flight’s assertion, whether it was crudely put or not. The motivation to have children is very, very rarely attributable to the factors Flight mentioned. I’m sure David Cameron knows that as well, so it would not simply be what Pete Whitehead might call “political correctness” which caused him to disagree with Flight’s remarks.
I think there is no problem with disagreeing with his analysis but what I find problematic, like Andy, is the tendency to not just disagree with comments but to brand them as ‘unacceptable’ as many critics have. I personally don’t consider it unacceptable if people say things with which I disagree. This kind of tendency was much on display on BBC Question Time last night (though clearly motivated more by the opportunity for partisan point scoring than any real outrage) by the very overrated (in more ways than one) Gloria de Piero
‘But his decision to end Howard Flight’s career so he couldn’t even stand as a Conservative in his seat was ridiculously authoritarian, and wrong.’
Personally I think it was one of the best decisions he made during his overrated leadership
On the run up to the 2005 election Howard Flight actually said that the Tories were intentionally deceiving people with the cuts that were in their manifesto and would actually cut far deeper once in government
Any self-respecting leader would have to sack any of their candidates who goesa around saying their own party is deliberately deceiving people
It does come down to judgement and whilst i’ve been surprisingly impressed by David Cameron’s start as PM, which seems to confirm that much like Mr Blair before him he is first and foremost a pragmatist, one does wondrer why on earth he’d nominate the likes of Howard Flight as a Tory peer – a man so unsymatheic and dislikeable he can onlky remond people why theuy were so turned off the Toreies all those years ago
I wouldn”t be too surprised if Lord (?) Flight ended up defecting to a party far more in line with his poltical philosophy – UKIP
Flight’s choice of words was extremely careless – you can’t talk about over-breeding of the lower orders as if we were still in the 1800s. Indeed it is very hard for a plummy multi-millionnaire Tory to be able to raise this subject at all.
Nevertheless I think that he does touch on a very important issue – namely the fact that a huge number of middle class people don’t have children any more. Especially in and around London. My wife and I, aged 32 and 34 respectively, being prime examples of the DINKY trend that virtually every contemporary I know conforms to.
I’m not sure child benefit changes will make much of an impact, but many other issues do. The long hours culture, high house prices, poor schools, the high cost of living, later marriage and the difficulty for women to combine a successful career with a family are all strong contributing factors.
It does mean that more and more of the birthrate is being weighted towards lower income groups, with all the disadvantages that brings in terms of poverty, education and life chances in general. It is a trend that is going to prove very disadvantageous for our society in 20-30 years’ time.
You just come to Richmond & see the enormous number of middle-class people with children! You can’t move for blinking pushchairs……..
Any young couples who can afford to buy a house in Richmond are hardly going to be representative of the bulk of the middle class. Upper middle class with six figure incomes, maybe.
The jist of what Flight was saying was borne out by a report published by the Institute of Fiscal Studies – hardly a right-wing think tank – it just the language that Flight used (‘breeding’) combined with the fact he’s got form when it comes to saying such things
Yes I agree. That was my point as well. Breeding makes it sound like you’re talking about dogs or horses.
“Breeding makes it sound like you’re talking about dogs or horses”
Or aristocrats, of course. There’s nothing better than good breeding
I think Flight was very represenatative of the area. I worked here in the 1970s and it’s the only place I’ve ever been refused service in a pub on the grounds I wan’t wearing a tie.
Actually Chelsea, Sutton Coldfield and neighbouring Chichester are more recalcitrantly Conservative, but this would certainly be one of the last 10 seats if Canadian style disaster ever hit.
The inclusion of Petworth has made this seat a fraction less Conservative if only in relative terms (the LDs can win there in a good year for them). In 1997 Howard Flight’s share of the vote in the seat’s inaugural contest, before this change, was one of the 4 highest in the land.
For the Conservative Party I mean, not all parties.
Surely Steyning can’t be the largest centre of population in this seat with a population of 5,812? That’s the most populous settlement I can find using a quick search on Wikipedia.
The answer is no because Hassocks has a population of 6,821.
‘The answer is no because Hassocks has a population of 6,821.’
Surely Arundel itself has a larger population than that
Arundel is smaller than you think. Hurstpierpoint has a population of 6,264, so that’s the second-largest settlement in this very rural seat.
Arundel itself only has a population of 3,408 according to Wikipedia. The name is used for the constituency for historical reasons I think.
‘Arundel itself only has a population of 3,408 according to Wikipedia. ‘
Jesus – it’s little more than a hamlet
I thought it would be at least 10,000
Explains why the Tories got something like their third highest share of the vote here in the 1997 election. There hasn’t been a great improvement since then – maybe the “Sussex coast effect” has had a slight impact on the Conservative performance.
‘Explains why the Tories got something like their third highest share of the vote here in the 1997 election. ‘
The Tories did well here in 97 because whilst this seat is more rural than most of those in Surrey, it has just as many A/B professionals and villages like West Chiltington rival those found in Surrey Heath and Esher & Walton when it comes to exclusivity and property prices
Not really sure why the Tories haven’t improved since then
Howard Flight always described himself (inaccirately IMO) as ‘Essex man’ – which I doubt would appeal much to Tory voters around here – and I would have thought there would be some dye-in-the-wool Tories who would not vote for a gay candidate – never mind how right wing they are
I don’t see much of the South Coast effect here though – apart from in Upper Beeding which has a huge disused quary and roads of terraced housing (Dacre Gardens)
Arundel isn’t even on it’s own as a ward for the district council, it’s that small.
The CLG’s file on the populations of urban areas gives:
Hurstpierpoint/Hassocks 11,143
Steyning/Upper Beeding 9,501
Storrington 7,727
Henfield 4,527
Pulborough 3,906
Arundel 3,297
Petworth 2,298
Nothing else over 2000. So yes, this is very rural but not quite as much so as previous posters were suggesting.
And it was Storrington I was working in – and it was a kitchen furniture factory – and the town itself was far from a rural idyll in the 1970s.
‘And it was Storrington I was working in – and it was a kitchen furniture factory – and the town itself was far from a rural idyll in the 1970s.’
Drive through the town today and it seems every bit the rural idyll one might suspect it to be, although a quick scout through the back streets reveals that there are pockets of deprivation
Neighbouring West Chiltington more fits into the rural idyll description
“although a quick scout through the back streets reveals that there are pockets of deprivation”
Do you know, I’m starting to get this image of Tim stalking the back streets of every town and village he visits searching for grot and sqalour.
I’m looking forward to the resulting book which any publisher must surely now be about to snap up “Chigwell to Chelsea- A Guide to Pockets of Deprivation in Surprising Places”
‘I’m looking forward to the resulting book which any publisher must surely now be about to snap up’
You can’t be familiar Shaun with either ‘Crap Towns’ or ‘Crap Towns 2′ edited by Sam Jordison and Dan Kieran and published in association with UK Quarterly The Idler – two of my favourite pieces of bedtime reading, which I snapped up as soon as they hit the shelves
I know Storrington fairly well so I was just commenting that there are estates there, albeit small ones
“Do you know, I’m starting to get this image of Tim stalking the back streets of every town and village he visits searching for grot and sqalour.”
Anyone worth their salt would do exactly that. I always make it my business when visting somewhere unfamiliar to do that
Sometimes you don’t need to look very far.
Go to Lambeth and have a look.
“Anyone worth their salt would do exactly that. I always make it my business when visting somewhere unfamiliar to do that”
Well now I’m imagining day trips and coach parties and whole regiments of people stalking the nooks and crannies of our towns and villages.
I wonder if anyone plays the opposite game? Are there people desperately searching ofr a nice bit in Liverpool?
‘Are there people desperately searching ofr a nice bit in Liverpool?’
Could not the same be said of Stoke – although I suppose it’s quite nice around Trentham Park – in the far South of the city (presuming it’s within the city boundaries)
I did the opposite too, recently working in Tooting and currently in Streatham & discovering some excellent, even sometimes posh, houses & complete roads in these generally unfashionable areas which would for the most part meet with very opprobrious comments from Tim as to their grottiness (a quality which does not always betoken voting Labour by any means).
………….though I have also recently found a small council estate in Royal Hospital Ward, Chelsea, too.
Tooting has become more fashionable of late but has quite a way to go before it approaches Balham in the gentrified stakes. I feel that the Asian community is too well entrenched for the sorts of demographic change that have occurred elsewhere in the borough and not even two stations on the Northern line (for the all important connection to the city) will change that.
Streatham has seen the odd hint of gentrification with some slightly more upmarket outlets opening recently but the lack of good public transport and its traffic choked high road will likely impede any further significant change.
That’s all true but the areas I describe are areas which have probably always been upmarket & haven’t been DEgentrified.
Ah, I see. Regarding Streatham, are some of these places you’ve found near Tooting Bec Common? There are some very nice houses down that way which I believe are in St Leonards ward. I’m thinking of Riggindale Road in particular. I have no idea if they are all owned by one family/couple or have been turned into multi-occupancy flats but they still appear to be in good shape.
“Could not the same be said of Stoke”
Touche.
I think Liverpool’s problem is the people rather than the actual geography. Perhaps Stoke has a similar problem in most peoples minds from outside the area. But our problem is a little different; we don’t have the persistant hard done to victim mentality of the people of Liverpool, we have a general lack of ambition, demoralisation and the idea that the state of things is terrible but nothing can be done.
And as I heard someone else say recently either on this site or another, we suffer from the common socialist problem (sharing absolutely with Liverpool and others) that its always someone else’s fault-usually the Tories!
AKMD – yes they are near Tooting Bec Common in various roads nearby.
I hadn’t realised Nick Herbert was a gay rights’ activist (although not in the extreme Peter Tatchell sense). Herbert stated at a gay Tory event that, “We’re not just equal, gay people are better than straight people!” He apparently didn’t make his sexuality known, after Howard Flight was dumped here and yet there’s something rather nasty and illiberal about the gay Tory group lead threatening to out closet MPs.
I’m sure it was known that Nick Herbert was gay at the time he was selected. Are you quite sure those remarks aren’t apocryphal? They sound pretty unlikely to me.
“there’s something rather nasty and illiberal about the gay Tory group lead threatening to out closet MPs”
At the time of William Hague campaigning against the abolition of section 28 in 2000, a very similar gay Tory outing group sprang up. It was called “Tories Against Hypocrisy”, based on an anonymous website.
It listed about 10 Tory MPs who were gay and supported section 28. The intention was to write a lengthy article about each MP, one by one. Only the first article ever appeared, and it concerned Nigel Evans MP, who has since come out. It contained a huge amount of very unflattering allegations.
The website was closed down under threat of legal action before the details of the other 9 were published. But the names stick in my mind – some have since retired whilst others are still MPs….one of them indeed remains in the cabinet.
But the moral of the story is that once the outers start to get serious they will be gagged very very quickly.
Any clues on the rest? Id be very interested to know.
I find it difficult to believe there are more than one or two “closet” MPs in this day and age. But maybe I’m wrong.
Well, allegations are one thing and the truth is another.
But those concerned were worried enough to get their names taken down.
Joe – if I were to mention any names on here I would rightly be moderated.
Didn’t Christopher Hitchens claim he’d slept with several members of the Tory front bench (he made the allegations when they were in opposition) during his university days?
This sounded fdar fetched but I did wonder why he’d make the allegations if they were just fiction
I’ll give Joe one clue….one out of the 10 was a woman!