Arundel and South Downs
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 26594 (51.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 13765 (26.6%)
Labour: 8420 (16.2%)
Other: 3039 (5.9%)
Majority: 12829 (24.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 24752 (49.8%)
Labour: 8482 (17.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 13443 (27.1%)
UKIP: 2700 (5.4%)
Other: 313 (0.6%)
Majority: 11309 (22.8%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 23969 (52.2%)
Labour: 9488 (20.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 10265 (22.4%)
UKIP: 2167 (4.7%)
Majority: 13704 (29.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 27251 (53.1%)
Labour: 9376 (18.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 13216 (25.7%)
Other: 1494 (2.9%)
Majority: 14035 (27.3%)
Boundary changes: a number of minor changes to take account of ward boundary changes, the most notable being the loss of Burgess Hill Victoria ward to Mid Sussex and gaining Petworth from Horsham.
Profile: Arundel and South Downs is a sprawling Sussex constituency making up much of the rural interior of West Sussex once the coastal towns of Bognor, Worthing and Hove have been carved out into their own constituencies. The seat contains parts of four different local authorities and is made up of picturesque rural villages with no industry of note. Arundel itself, and the castle of the same name, is the historic seat of the Dukes of Norfolk.
The seat was prominent during the 2005 election campaign when the then Conservative MP Howard Flight was secret recorded telling a meeting that the Conservative party would make larger cuts in spending than it had announced. He had the whip withdrawn and, despite threatened legal challenges, eventually stood down as the Conservative candidate.
Current MP: Nick Herbert (Con) born 1963. Educated at Haileybury and Magdalene College, Oxford. Herbert was one of only two openly gay Conservative MPs returned in the 2005 election, he currently lives with his partner. Herbert is a former director of public affairs for the British Field Sports Society, chief executive of Business for Sterling and, until first elected in 2005, head of the free market think tank Reform. He backed David Davis in the 2005 leadership contest and, after David Cameron`s election as leader was appointed as spokesman on police reform (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
James Field (Labour)
Martin Haslam (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89503
Male: 47.9%
Female: 52.1%
Under 18: 21%
Over 60: 27.5%
Born outside UK: 5.8%
White: 98.6%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.6%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.6%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 22.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.5%
Owner-Occupied: 78.9%
Social Housing: 10.5% (Council: 4.3%, Housing Ass.: 6.2%)
Privately Rented: 6.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.4%
13 Responses
The Conservative majority could reach 20,000 next time,
January 8th, 2007 at 7:43 pmafter a slight swing against the trend when Howard Flight was (unfairly) removed in 2005.
There are some Lib Dem and Labour votes in parts of the seat, but are unlikely to get anywhere near the MP.
The Tories even managed to keep control of the council in their worst ever year - 1995.
There’s something that’s always intrigued be about this seat, and that’s the low turnouts that sometimes occur, which is odd in such a rural, affluent seat:
1983: 69.7%
February 13th, 2007 at 12:39 am1987: 71.2%
2001: 64.7%
2005: 68.5%
The turnout in the last two elections is higher than the national average in each case. IN 1983 and 87 this seat didnt exist. Presumably your figures are for the Arundel seat which existed then, which actually provided rather few electors to this seat. The majority of that Arundel constituency survives in the Bognor Regis & Littlehampton division which is neither rural, nor especially affluent
February 16th, 2007 at 2:15 amYou have missed the 1992 and 1997 turnouts
1992: 77.1%
1997: 75.5%
These were in line with and greater than the national average respectively
February 20th, 2007 at 12:17 am“the low turnouts that sometimes occur”
I would guess there are a lot of second homes around the South Downs which may well be one factor.
With the Conservatives getting over 50% in both 1997 and 2001, I confidently predict a Lib Dem gain here (oh okay not really).
February 26th, 2007 at 1:58 pmI;m not so sure about the Conservative majority exceeding even 15,000
I just don’t know whether a gay radical right-winger who wants to privatise the NHS can ever have that much appeal, even in this part of the country
The Conservatives really did the impossible here in finding a candidate even more right-wing than Howard Flight
August 16th, 2007 at 4:01 pmTwickenham (& Richmond Park,Windsor)
20/3/2008 council by-election Yapton, Arun,
Tory hold with 59.8% of the votes (65.6% in 2007),
LDs took 20.4% (21.0% in 2007)
BNP with 19.8% (no candidate in 2007)
and Labour didn’t stand. (13.3 in 2007)
but only a 24.5% turnout
March 28th, 2008 at 12:55 am(Bognor Regis and) Littlehampton
Yapton ward is entirely in Bognor Regis and Littlehampton.
May 11th, 2008 at 3:53 pmI would think there will be an above-average swing to the Tories here next time. I think the way Mr Flight was treated by the party probably caused a fair bit of resentment which suppressed the Tory vote last time
May 11th, 2008 at 4:13 pmBradford South
Should be a Conservative hold by at least 17000 next time. Shares of the vote something like C 57, LD 24, Lab 13, Oth 6.
May 11th, 2008 at 6:34 pmTwickenham (& Richmond Park,Windsor)
I suspect it could go a bit higher than that - I’ll say just short of 60%, with LDs on around 20% and Labour about 14-15%.
May 11th, 2008 at 10:12 pmThis is a most likely forecast.
Given that the Tory share was 53.1% in 1997 (one of the highest in the country) they should really be looking to top 60% in 2009/10.
May 12th, 2008 at 1:21 amTwickenham (& Richmond Park,Windsor)
I’m not quite sure it would because I think the Tory vote held up relatively well in 1997. But a 6 or 7 point rise, after a bit of damage in 2005 looks about right.
May 12th, 2008 at 12:55 pm