Comments on: Argyll and Bute

By: Dalek

Dalek — Sun, 06 Nov 2011 08:32:32 +0000

Bearsden South and Milngavie Wards will be part of East Dunbartonshire Kilsyth and Bearsden North will be part of West Dunbartonshire & Bearsden.

Traditionally, Milngavie would have been linked with the West and the two Bearsden wards with the East.

It would be possible to do this now as there would be a link between the Strathkelvin area and Bearsden South of a few meters.

I think that I am right in saying that this slender link was typical from 1997 – 2005 and within the Holyrood constituency.

This is a greater geographical connection than the one that existed between the 4 wards forming the Pollok estate and Pollokshields and Shawlands in Glasgow Pollok between 1983 and 1997.

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Sat, 05 Nov 2011 22:53:52 +0000

‘To link Argyll & Bute with Lochaber is sensible because it will unify the whole of traditional Argyllshire in one constituency.’

It’s OK but it has knock on effects resulting in Bearsden being tacked onto West Dunbartonshire.

I hope Aidan Thomson’s idea of the Argyll and Trossachs constituency will be considered.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Sat, 05 Nov 2011 17:13:55 +0000

The most western part of the UK mainland, The Ardnamurchan Peninsula (now part of Lochaber) was traditionally Argyllshire and was still part of the Argyll constituency till 1983.

It was the only part of Argyll that became part of Highland Region and Lochaber DC in 1974.

To link Argyll & Bute with Lochaber is sensible because it will unify the whole of traditional Argyllshire in one constituency.

By: Calum Smith

Calum Smith — Sat, 05 Nov 2011 16:42:19 +0000

There will be no substantial increase in the Scottish Tory vote in 2015, but I think it may remain at 16% or perhaps increase a little – remember 1992?

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Sat, 05 Nov 2011 16:00:20 +0000

Details here:

SNP 44.1% (+21.8)
Con 20.6% (+12.1)
Ind (Gwyneth Neal) 17.9% (+17.9)
LD 10.6 (-4.0)
Ind (George Doyle) 6.7% (+2.9)

Independents had a large share last time, so it looks like a strong SNP result, an OK Tory one and a poor LD one.

And I agree it’s a poor effort from Labour not to put up a candidate – they only put up 5 in Argyll and Bute in 2007.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Sat, 05 Nov 2011 15:27:52 +0000

There was a by-election here,
in part of Oban & Bute,
won by the SNP
although not sure whether it’s SNP hold or SNP gain from Ind.

Tories came second.
Labour didn’t stand for some reason.

By: A Cairns

A Cairns — Sat, 05 Nov 2011 13:29:15 +0000

I doubt that will have any effect on the tories fortunes in Scotland.

By: wolf

wolf — Sat, 05 Nov 2011 10:41:54 +0000

It’s going to be interesting to see if having a young female Cameroonian will improve the Tory share of the vote, which seems to be increasing anyway.

By: Dalek

Dalek — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 13:01:41 +0000

It is only the collapse the Lib Dems which open the possibility of a couple of Conservative gains.

DCT is harder to compair to other Scottish seats because it has as much in common with safe Tory seats like Penrith & The Border and Hexham.

It is also possible that both Berwick Upon Tweed and Berwickshire could fall to the Tories. The English / Scottish border seats are almost a community by themselves.

By: Tom Robinson

Tom Robinson — Fri, 02 Sep 2011 12:37:53 +0000

With the UK election now scheduled for 2015 and thusthe Holyrood election re scheduled for 2016, it strikes me that Salmond will hold the Referendum after the UK election in the belief that the Tories will be the largest UK party whilst continuing at 1 or even no MPs in Scotland.

How succesful would the only significant UK Party in Scotland, Labour, be in campaigning for the Tories to again rule Scotland?

Of course, if issues spin heavily in the polls towards a real chance of a pro-indepence majority in 2014, Salmond would go for it as 2014 is the 700th anniversay of the Battle of Bannockburn and the Commonwealth Games are in Scotland (and Scotland are separately represented in those).