Comments on: Argyll and Bute

By: pump

pump — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 03:51:09 +0000

This is one of the 11 Tory target seats. Personally I see the LD’s holding this, possibly with a slightly increased maj. if the Lab vote tacticaly gets behind them.

By: Peter Election Follower

Peter Election Follower — Sat, 16 Jan 2010 15:21:36 +0000

I agree with Neil above. 8 SNP seats and may be a couple more.

This seat will become a LD/SNP/Con marginal after the GE. In my book LD certainly first and Labour certainly fourth.

By: Falkirkbairn01

Falkirkbairn01 — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 17:51:13 +0000

I wasnt questioning the size of the majority of the time, simply the exactness.

However, I now thing the Lib Dems will hold over the Scottish Tories by about 300 votes or so.

By: John B Dick

John B Dick — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 17:38:06 +0000

Falkirkbairn01

“23? Seems a rather exact majority.”

Peter Crerar’s estimate of the majority is about right.

What’s in doubt is which of three candidates wins by that amount!

By: John B Dick

John B Dick — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 17:31:01 +0000

Isn’t that enough?

By: John B Dick

John B Dick — Tue, 29 Dec 2009 17:29:51 +0000

Chicka

“What is it about the MP people are complaining about? Personally i think he is invisible.”

By: Neil

Neil — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 02:41:40 +0000

SNP seats next year will be as follows (in order of safeness):

1. Dundee East
2. Western Isles
3. Banff & Buchan
4. Dundee West (GAIN)
5. Moray
6. Ochil & SP (GAIN)
7. Angus
8. Perth & NP

These I am pretty sure of. There are some others they may possibly win, as follows:

9. Dunfermline & W Fife
10. Kilmarnock & Loudon
11. Aberdeen North
12. Argyll & Bute
13. Edinburgh East
14. Glasgow East
15. Edinburgh N & Leith

Of these I think Dunfermline and West Fife will be too close to call, and as we go down the list the SNPs chances diminish – I would be astonished if they got more than 12, and in fact pretty surprised if they manage that.

The SNP will certainly manage 8 seats, quite probably 9, and possibly 10 – 12, but I think they would privately be happy with 9.

By: deanthetory

deanthetory — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 00:14:11 +0000

Tam does raise a very interesting point. Its actually what Tony Benn said in 1974…”it wasnt all the seats they came first, it was all the ones where they were second”.

Let me illustrate a very plausable outcome: Scotland

Headline figures:
Labour 30% SNP: 28% Con: 21% LibDem: 15%

All the seats where the SNP come second: on these numbers

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill [Tom Clarke]
Lab: 54.64
SNP:22.80

Glasgow South West [Ian Davidson]
Lab: 50.37
SNP: 24.46

Airdrie and Shotts [Dr John Reid]
Lab:49.17
SNP: 25.60

Motherwell and Wishaw [Frank Roy]
Lab: 47.63
SNP:25.68

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath [Gordon Brown]
Lab:48.25
SNP: 24.01

Rutherglen and Hamilton West [Tommy McAvoy] Lab:45.76
SNP: 24.88

Dunbartonshire West [John McFall]
Lab: 42.09
SNP;31.63

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East [Rosemary McKenna]
Lab:41.97
SNP:32.24

Paisley and Renfrewshire South [Douglas Alexander] Lab:42.73
SNP:28.33

Glasgow Central [Mohammad Sarwar]
Lab:38.37
SNP: 25.60

Falkirk [Eric Joyce]
Lab:41.01
SNP: 31.71

Inverclyde [David Cairns]
Lab:40.90
SNP: 30.13

Glasgow North West [John Robertson]
Lab: 39.33
SNP: 25.01

East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow [Adam Ingram]
Lab:38.90
SNP: 28.36

Kilmarnock and Loudoun [Des Browne]
Lab: 37.42
SNP; 36.63

Dunfermline and West Fife [Rachel Squire]
Lab:37.60
SNP: 30.34

Linlithgow and East Falkirk [Michael Connarty]
Lab:37.84
SNP: 33.66

Midlothian [David Hamilton]
Lab:35.65
SNP: 28.38

Glasgow South [Tom Harris]
Lab:37.39
SNP: 23.79

Lanark and Hamilton East [Jimmy Hood]
Lab: 36.21
SNP: 28.81

Paisley and Renfrewshire North [James Sheridan] Lab: 35.89
SNP: 29.75

Glasgow North [Ann McKechin]
Lab: 29.56
SNP: 24.35

Edinburgh East [Gavin Strang]
Lab:30.20
SNP: 28.43

Ayrshire North and Arran [Katy Clark]
Lab: 34.08
SNP: 28.39

East Lothian [Anne Picking]
Lab: 31.63
SNP: 24.50

Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey [Danny Alexander]
Lib:31.21
SNP: 24.95

Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross [John Thurso] Lib: 41.37
SNP: 24.73

Ross Skye and Lochaber [Charles Kennedy]
Lib:49.62
SNP: 19.48

Orkney and Shetland [Alistair Carmichael]
Lib: 42.42
SNP: 20.00

Gordon [Malcolm Bruce]
Lib: 35.94
SNP: 27.38

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 14:10:13 +0000

Yes Dean, Ochil is the one seat that we can say with absolute certainty that the SNP will gain, Dundee West is probably next.

Beyond that they all look a bit up in the air: Argyll is possible but could be snatched away from the SNP by a Tory revival. Kilmarnock looks pretty unlikely to be honest, Edinburgh North likewise; the Gordon result in the Scottish parliament was fantastic but only really came on the back of Alex Salmond standing there-which presumably he won’t be doing next year so we can write that one off.

In addition, Glasgow East will be lost back to Labour and the SNP could come under a lot of pressure in Angus and Perth.

Certainly, anyone expecting a revolutionary breakthrough of SNP seats are in for a major dissapointment.

By: Tam

Tam — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 14:08:00 +0000

I agree that I don’t see the SNP winning much, but will they move into second place in a bunch of seats?

Do think A&B is a good bet though.