Argyll and Bute
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10861 (24.03%)
Labour: 10274 (22.73%)
Liberal Democrat: 14292 (31.61%)
SNP: 8563 (18.94%)
Green: 789 (1.75%)
Independent: 272 (0.6%)
Others: 156 (0.35%)
Majority: 3431 (7.58%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 15786 (36.5%)
Conservative: 10150 (23.5%)
Labour: 9696 (22.4%)
SNP: 6716 (15.5%)
Other: 881 (2%)
Majority: 5636 (13%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 6436 (20.8%)
Labour: 7592 (24.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 9245 (29.9%)
SNP: 6433 (20.8%)
Other: 1251 (4%)
Majority: 1653 (5.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6774 (19%)
Labour: 5596 (15.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 14359 (40.2%)
SNP: 8278 (23.2%)
Referendum: 713 (2%)
Majority: 6081 (17%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: A Scottish seat covering a huge swathe of sparsely populated countryside. The seat covers the whole of the Argyll & Bute council area including many Scottish islands such as Mull, Bute, Jura, Tiree, Islay and the religious community on the isle of Iona, the burial place of the early Kings of Scotland. Other industries include tourism, forestry and fishing and, more recently, energy production through the expansion of wind farms. The seat also includes Faslane, the base of the UK`s Trident nuclear armed submarine fleet. The constituency is mainly rural. The two largest towns are the ferry port of Oban and Helensburgh, a commuter town for Glasgow.
In 2001 the seat was a rare example of a true 4-way marginal, with the fourth placed SNP within 10% of the Liberal Democrat winner.
Current MP: Alan Reid(Liberal Democrat) born 1954. Educated at Ayr Academy and the University of Strathclyde. Single. A former computer project manager and councilor in Renfrewshire for 8 years. He contested Paisley and Renfreshire South in 1992 and Dunbartonshire West in 1997 before being first elected in 2001. He served as a DTI spokesman from 2005-6 and is presently Lib Dem spokesman on Northern Ireland. He back Sir Menzies Campbell in the 2006 leadership election (more information at They work for you)
Gary Mulvaney (Conservative) Chartered accountant, working for a motor trader. Argyll and Bute councillor.
David Graham (Labour)Alan Reid(Liberal Democrat) born 1954. Educated at Ayr Academy and the University of Strathclyde. Single. A former computer project manager and councilor in Renfrewshire for 8 years. He contested Paisley and Renfreshire South in 1992 and Dunbartonshire West in 1997 before being first elected in 2001. He served as a DTI spokesman from 2005-6 and is presently Lib Dem spokesman on Northern Ireland. He back Sir Menzies Campbell in the 2006 leadership election (more information at They work for you)
Mike MacKenzie (SNP) born Oban.Elaine Morrison (Green)John Black (Scottish Jacobite Party)George Doyle (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91306
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.2%
Over 60: 24.6%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 99.2%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 69.7%
Graduates 16-74: 22.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.1%
Owner-Occupied: 64.6%
Social Housing: 21.3% (Council: 15.7%, Housing Ass.: 5.6%)
Privately Rented: 10.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.5%
I think Taysider assumes everyone votes Tory judging by his predictions.
Last year I thought this was a certain loss to the SNP and even a month ago I didn’t really have much confidence in a hold.
I don’t think theres any chance of a loss here now though.
Given that Scottish LibDem voters are hardly pro-Tory, this may well be a Labour gain next time, a first for this seat
I don’t see Labour gaining this seat.
2001 was the peak of the Blair effect in rural Scotland, when Labour also did well in Angus and Moray.
That year Labour struck their largest majority in Inverness and would have gained Dumfries & Galloway (notionally Lab in 2001 – would have been Tory in 1997).
I think that much of the left of centre Lib Dem vote did go to Brown in 2010, Lib Dem vote halved in East Renfrewshire.
If the Lib Dem vote slumps in Scotland as a reaction to the Conservative Liberal Democrat government then it is more likely to go to the SNP in Argyll & Bute (such as in Holyrood).
I agree with Ian – the rural Lib Dem voters are far more likely to break to the SNP given that many of them voted SNP in 2007 anyway and also because rural areas are generally either SNP or Lib Dem, with the Labour party win in Stirling and Dumfries and Galloway largely down to the large towns within them.
Given that Scottish LibDem voters are hardly pro-Tory
I would think that there’s a reasonable amount of Tory-leaning sentiment among some LD voters in seats like these, which won’t be offfended by the Coalition as long as it does not appear to be overtly anti-Scottish .
Perhaps – but it does beg the question – why doesn’t this vote just go for the tories? There are many small c conservatives in Scotland who still have a hatred of the tories but I suppose in places like Jura and Braemar the Lib Dem vote is not really an anti-tory one, though it was mainly borne out of a desire to oust the tories from power but has never really returned. Then again you look at the leanings of Charlie Kennedy, Ming Campbell, David Steel and Nicol Stephen and you see that the electorate are clearly voting for MPs/MSPs who are politically quite far left of centre and certainly nothing like the West Country Lib Dems. In much of Scotland it isn’t really an active vote for the Lib Dems but a cobbled anti-tory coalition, with perhaps the few exceptions that I mentioned.
Labour will one day gain this seat. Oh no I’m not predicting a gain for them next time. But it is coming you know. And in Moray too.
That’s very interesting Shaun – not for the first time you are more expectant of Labour gains in certain places than I am. Granted, Labour has done pretty well here this year, but there’s still a pretty steep hill to climb.
I can’t understand how people can deny that the seeds are there pointing to a future Labour gain in both seats, Barnaby.
As I said, I am NOT going so far as to say Labour will win them next time. But the seeds are quite clearly there.
I do understand your point but a Miliband is hardly likely to galvanise the Scottish Labour Party to victory across all of Scotland, certainly not moreso than Brown.
R.E. Shaun Bennett
As someone who lives in the Moray seat and has dane all their life, I can say with 100% certainty that Labour will NEVER, I repeat NEVER gain in Moray. They peaked here (Moray) at the 2001 election. Anyone who lives in Moray will agree that Labour are a non-entity there and that it is a straight fight between the SNP and the Tories. If anyone is going to gain Moray in the future from the shackles of the SNP (no offence SNPrs) it will be us.
The only real support for Labour in Moray is a small pocket in the town on Elgin, the rest of the seat is Tory/SNP country.
Labour are never going to have any REAL presence in rural Scotland, north of the River Tay, nor is Dumfries and Galloway real prospect of a long term hold in the future in my opinion, come to that.
All I can say to you Shaun Bennett is to get real and stop living in a fantasy land. You have your heartlands in central Scotland and we have ours in rural Scotland
*Sorry, I meant to say we will re-gain our heatlands in rural Scotland. Hopefully.
Both Shaun and RothesThatcherite are deluded IMO (though I’m sure I’m pretty deluded myself at times!).
Moray will NEVER go Labour barring some drastic demographic change to the area or a change to Labour’s set of policies. However, while the tories have been historically strong across the Borders, Argyll and the Northeast of Scotland, there are few signs of a genuine tory revival in either the Borders (barring Mundell) or Argyll, and just the sniff of a recovery in the northeast. Get real if you think that voters will somehow revert to the tories in large numbers across rural Scotland – the Scottish tories are in complete dissaray, having minimum influence with the UK party leadership along with having views completely out of tow with the majority of Scots. And even if you do breakthrough again in your former heartlands, the Highlands, the largest rural area ‘north of the river Tay’, is about as likely to vote tory as a seat in the central belt. Labour could still win in Inverness, the Tories could still win Moray, but I don’t think either of these results is likely to occur anytime soon.
Argyll and Bute 2011 prediction:
SNP 11500(+2.5)
LD 7000 (-9)
Lab 6500 (+6.5%)
Con 6000(0)
Argyllshire and Buteshire 2011 prediction:
SNP 10899
Lab 6988
Con 6877
LD 6766
I agree with Dalek’s prediction. Michael Russell’s views are identical to Jim Mather’s so he will probably win.
The 4000 SNP majority was before I understood that JM would be retiring, but MR is also a good candidate, so he should be able to win by at least 2000 over a divided opposition.
The only possible threat to the SNP would be a recovery in the Lib Dems (Tories and Labour both have a base here but also a ceiling). The ability of the Lib Dems to squeeze the Tory or Labour vote here is unlikely.
I agree with Dalek too, this is one of the seats where the Liberals have always ran a campaign based on the fact they aren’t the Tories here, this won’t was with voters anymore.
SNP 9500
Labour 7500
Tories 6500
LD 6000
Oth 500
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-11900074
Mather criticises celtic tiger.
V interesting.
As for next year I would think:
SNP 32%
Lab 25%
LD 22%
Con 21%
Perhaps the Conservatives could take this in a General Election though.
It seems to be one of the seats where they have a chance.
At the Scottish parliamentary election it is likely that like the huge majority of seats. this one will be between SNP and Labour and once fixed this pattern will be difficult to change. It is sobering for Cons (I am a labobour politician) to appreciate that this constituency is overwhelmingly reliant on public spending and will be very hard hit by reductions in public expenditure
Yes, they could possibly sneak in with 27/28% if the LD vote splintered.
yes, that kind of thing. (A split like in Inverness in 1992)
Of course, Labour could take it aswell.
Although this constituency appears rural most of its electorate live in urban settlements like Rothsey (on Bute), Oban, Campbell Town and Dunoon.
It is in these places that the Labour vote is strongest, like Inverness Town in Inverness Nairn & Lochaber or Elgin in Moray.
Its like many constituencies. In Stirling, for example, the dence urban East Central Sirling/ Bannockburn outpolls The Trossacs, Strathblane, West Stirling, Bridge of Allen and Dunblane.
I still don’t see Labour getting 26 – 28% here, therefore a Labour victory is unlikely but if the Lib Dems poll badly, Labour could come a good second, within 2000 -3000 of the incumbant SNP.
Which parts of this seat are -
Tory
Labour
Lib Dem
SNP
I assume Labour are stronger in Campbell Town, Dunoon and Rothsey.
Tories stronger in Helensburgh and rural Bute and perhaps Oban.
I would see the Liberal and SNP vote being more evenly spread out.
How do Islay and Jura vote? Jura has a very small electorate. It was on Jura that Orwell wrote 1984.
I’ve often wondered that Dalek – I have previously thought there was some Labour strength in Dunoon, but others have told me not really. Wasn’t aware of much Labour strength anywhere else. Perhaps someone with more local knowledge than me could help.
The detailed 2007 results for Argyll & Bute were kindly posted by Aidan on page 7 of this thread.
Dunoon is strongly SNP. Islay/Jura good for the Lib Dems.
Labour’s strongest area is in fact Helensburgh.
This is because Helensburgh is in the Dumbarton seat for Holyrood elections (so Labour make the effort).
For Westminster elections, I suspect a significant proportion of these votes go Lib Dem.
I intially thought Helensburgh was the strongest area in Argyll and Bute because it seemed like common sense but then the Westmin. figures for Labour in the old Argyll and Bute seemed a tad stronger for Labour which threw people off a bit.
Prediction for May 2011 Scottish Parliament election
SNP – 10000
LD – 8000
Con – 5000
Lab – 4000
Yesterday I had another shot at redrawing the Scottish boundaries under the new rules and regs (i.e. 50 seats in mainland Scotland, plus the two islands seats). The question of the Highland seats and this one is tricky given the need to balance electorates and physical size, and also knock-on effects elsewhere. Technically Highland, Argyll & Bute and Moray councils have enough of an electorate to create four seats, but the knock-on effects in Aberdeenshire and Perthshire would start to get very messy. So here’s a few thoughts about how to get round that problem. I’ve linked Argyll and Bute not with Highland, but with West Dunbartonshire and Stirling:
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross: current seat, plus Dingwall and Black Isle wards, plus as much of the Wester Ross ward as possible to get the seat up to 12,000 square km. (In practice, this would mean Ullapool, Garve and Strathpeffer.)
Inverness, Skye and Lochaber: current Inverness seat, minus Nairn, Culloden and Badenoch wards, plus Lochaber, Skye, and the remainder of Wester Ross ward (probably Torridon, certainly Lochalsh).
Moray, Nairn and Badenoch: Moray, minus Buckie and Keith/Cullen wards, plus Nairn, Culloden and Badenoch wards. (Buckie and Keith/Cullen would go into an otherwise unchanged Banff & Buchan.)
Dunbartonshire West: current seat, plus two Helensburgh wards currently in Argyll & Bute (which are historically in Dunbartonshire anyway).
Argyll, Bute and the Trossachs: current Argyll & Bute, minus Helensburgh wards, plus Trossachs and Endrick wards currently in Stirling, and part of Stirling West ward west of M9.
The remainder of the Stirling seat would be linked with south Perthshire and part of Clackmannanshire (Tullibody, Menstrie, Alva), whilst the rest of Clackmannanshire, plus Kinross, would be combined with Fife.
Not a great arrangement, I realize, but the alternatives aren’t much to write home about either.
‘Argyll, Bute and the Trossachs: current Argyll & Bute, minus Helensburgh wards, plus Trossachs and Endrick wards currently in Stirling, and part of Stirling West ward west of M9.
The remainder of the Stirling seat would be linked with south Perthshire and part of Clackmannanshire (Tullibody, Menstrie, Alva), whilst the rest of Clackmannanshire, plus Kinross, would be combined with Fife.
Not a great arrangement, I realize, but the alternatives aren’t much to write home about either.’
Hmm, I dunno about it not being a ‘great arrangement’, it sounds as if the most Tory parts of Stirling would be put into the Argyll/Trossachs seat (which would satisfy these voters) and would present a potentially winnable seat for the Tories, so I’m not going to complain too loudly.
No doubt the Boundary Commission will come up with an entirely different solution however.
LibDem votes in this constituency have been leaking for several past elections and that is set to continue apart from current LibDem difficulties.
The Con challenger for the UK seat does not benefit. In Scotland generally, Conservative voters go not to other parties, but to the crematorium.
The Westminster result showed that lost LibDem votes broke in favour of the SNP and that Lab also gained despite a low impact campaign and candidate, though the LibDem incumbent retained a substantial majority. If these trends continue, we can expect that in the longer term the LibDems will lose the UK seat also and fall below both SNP and Labour.
There must be a sizeable tranche of former and recent LibDem voters who are anti-Cons for whom the SNP are irrelevant for Westminster, but best buy for the SP.
Some have stuck with the LibDems for the UK parliament (and may now regret it) and many of those who have defected to Labour will be confimed in their judgement that Labour was the best anti-Con choice for Westminster. The next chunk to break off the LibDem iceberg will be a large one and the SNP’s share of that will be heavily influenced by the performance of the next Scottish Government whichever is the lead party.
Jim Mather took the SP seat last time with the narrowest of majorities and I am certain that if he were standing again that he would increase his majority, but they do still have a high profile candidate and the LibDems have lost the benefit of incumbency.
The SNP do not need to make any effort to present themselves as the best Anti-Con choice for the SP, for the voters have already made that judgement though opinion is divided and changing for Westminster.
Do you need anything else going for you in any constituency in Scotland than to be the candidate with the strongest appeal to anti-Con voters?
The LibDem case at Westminster is that they are a moderating influence in the coalition. They need to convince Argyll and Bute voters that they are effective in that role, by producing evidence that it is so, as well as presenting thatargument effectively. Both of these things need to be improved to an immense degree if they are not to lose the Westminster seat.
Despite the small SNP majority, since Lab are not in contention for the SP seat, a swing to Lab in the polls isn’t going to be much in evidence here, so a modest increase in the SNP majority is to be expected.
I do not disagree with any of the points made by John B Dick, the question is just whether the boundaries could be drawn in such a way as to priduce a ‘notional’ conservative seat.
“In Scotland generally, Conservative voters go not to other parties, but to the crematorium.”
That’s a very funny, and accurate, observation.
A Brown, exactly.
My point was that an Argyll/Trossachs/Rural Stirlingshire seat MIGHT be notionally Tory, given that they do still have a notable following in Argyll and seem to be strong in the Trossachs/rural Stirlingshire (Gargunnock, Balfron etc).
I don’t know what was meant by the crematorium comment to be honest, given that many Conservative voters have opted for different parties over the past few decades.
There’s definitely a feeling in Scotland that to vote Conservative is in some way inhuman
I had a Scottoish friend (who’s now sadly no longer with us) who was waaay toi the ‘right’ to all of us southerners on any issue under the sun yet when someone suggested he must be a Tory voter he decked them – and he was the type of guiy whose punches people didn’t immediate;y recover from
Such is the anti-Conservatoive sentiment up in Scotland
Not sure when this happened as in the 50s and 60s the Tories had many seats North of the boarder
Calum
Re Crematorium – I had to think about this too, but assume he meant that they don’t join other parties, they die off.
I’ve just posted on Castle Point. The Tory/ConDem idea to move our clocks forward an hour will go down like a lead balloon in Scotland, as it did in the 1970s. It will be a direct vote loser for them in Scotland at the next General Election if they go ahead.
So what. The Scots can have their own time zone then.
A few million Scots should not be able to dictate to a population in the rest of the UK of 55 million people.
It won’t happen anyway. The government has got more important things to do.
Any Scottish Conservative voter who might consider defecting to another party has long since done so. Only the most loyal remain and they will not be put off by the doings or undoings of the UK government.
Last time they lost under 2% over all, and it should be about the same this time too. If they lose as many as 2 MSP’s (half the number some are predicting) that would be a very result for them. For the same reasons, no increase is to be expected.
H Hemmelig
Englnd supports the change, Scotland doesn’t. I’d guess that the Glaswegian unemployed will still get out of bed when it suits them, and those who are most strongly against are in LibDem Highland constituences where the SNP are the chalngers.
It is a reserved matter, but one with a nationalist dimension. Highland LibDem MSP’s are in a very dificult position.
“Englnd supports the change”
Well I don’t.
I don’t want winter mornings to be any colder and darker and I don’t want bright sunlight on summer evenings – soft light is much nicer to eat and drink outside too.
I’m agnostic on the issue, but agree strongly with HH that Scotland should not dictate the matter to the rest of us and that they are quite capable of having a separate time zone if that suits them. Why have we had devolution if they can’t do things like that and the other side of the coin is that they don’t dictate to us. I’m also bound to agree with HH on another comment he made some time ago about the schizophrenic nature of Frederic’s posts. I generally enjoy reading his posts very much, but he seems to have trawled around several threads now obsessing about this issue which must be an utterly trivial one in relation to psephology.
Going back to the question of whether or not an Argyll, Bute and the Trossachs seat would be notionally Tory, the answer is ‘probably not’. West Stirlingshire and the Trossachs are much more mixed than you might imagine. The Tories are still probably the strongest party there but their days of getting over 50% of the vote are long since gone. On those boundaries I’d put the Lib Dems ahead there by about 1300. But the gap between first (Lib Dems on 29.4%) and fourth (SNP on 19.7%) would be so close that, frankly, the seat would be anybody’s: Argyll, Bute and the Trossachs would be the new Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber!
Pete Whitehead
It’s a reserved matter. The Scottish parliament can’t change the time.
The further North you go, the more it matters. Five year olds will have one hour commutes in the dark.
John,
Its not just the further North, but also the further west. Something which hasnt been picked up on by those lib dems in teh west country or welsh MPs – probably because of the focus on “its only a tiny number of Scots who will be affected”.
SNP Mike Russell 13,390 50.6 +16.0
Conservative Jamie McGrigor 4,847 18.3 -1.0
Labour Mick Rice 4,041 15.3 +0.8
Liberal Democrats Alison Hay 3,220 12.2 -19.6
Independent George Doyle 542 2.0 +2.0
Liberal George White 436 1.6 +1.6
This was a missed opportunity for Labour here, if they had chosen a bettert candidate they could have got at least 20% and 2nd place.
I was amazed how poorly they did on the list here – the SNP managed 3 list seats in the Highlands while Labour dropped back to 2. They really need to work on a proper list strategy in regions like this and the northeast(well probably all regions now that they know they are beatable anywhere) because they are never going to pick up a decent number of constituencies, so if they lose a lot of constituency voters to other parties on the list it really costs them huge numbers of seats. The SNP hammered them on that, with the extra seat on the northeast list highlighting just how poor Labour’s strategy was.