Argyll and Bute
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10861 (24.03%)
Labour: 10274 (22.73%)
Liberal Democrat: 14292 (31.61%)
SNP: 8563 (18.94%)
Green: 789 (1.75%)
Independent: 272 (0.6%)
Others: 156 (0.35%)
Majority: 3431 (7.58%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 15786 (36.5%)
Conservative: 10150 (23.5%)
Labour: 9696 (22.4%)
SNP: 6716 (15.5%)
Other: 881 (2%)
Majority: 5636 (13%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 6436 (20.8%)
Labour: 7592 (24.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 9245 (29.9%)
SNP: 6433 (20.8%)
Other: 1251 (4%)
Majority: 1653 (5.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6774 (19%)
Labour: 5596 (15.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 14359 (40.2%)
SNP: 8278 (23.2%)
Referendum: 713 (2%)
Majority: 6081 (17%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: A Scottish seat covering a huge swathe of sparsely populated countryside. The seat covers the whole of the Argyll & Bute council area including many Scottish islands such as Mull, Bute, Jura, Tiree, Islay and the religious community on the isle of Iona, the burial place of the early Kings of Scotland. Other industries include tourism, forestry and fishing and, more recently, energy production through the expansion of wind farms. The seat also includes Faslane, the base of the UK`s Trident nuclear armed submarine fleet. The constituency is mainly rural. The two largest towns are the ferry port of Oban and Helensburgh, a commuter town for Glasgow.
In 2001 the seat was a rare example of a true 4-way marginal, with the fourth placed SNP within 10% of the Liberal Democrat winner.
Current MP: Alan Reid(Liberal Democrat) born 1954. Educated at Ayr Academy and the University of Strathclyde. Single. A former computer project manager and councilor in Renfrewshire for 8 years. He contested Paisley and Renfreshire South in 1992 and Dunbartonshire West in 1997 before being first elected in 2001. He served as a DTI spokesman from 2005-6 and is presently Lib Dem spokesman on Northern Ireland. He back Sir Menzies Campbell in the 2006 leadership election (more information at They work for you)
Gary Mulvaney (Conservative) Chartered accountant, working for a motor trader. Argyll and Bute councillor.
David Graham (Labour)Alan Reid(Liberal Democrat) born 1954. Educated at Ayr Academy and the University of Strathclyde. Single. A former computer project manager and councilor in Renfrewshire for 8 years. He contested Paisley and Renfreshire South in 1992 and Dunbartonshire West in 1997 before being first elected in 2001. He served as a DTI spokesman from 2005-6 and is presently Lib Dem spokesman on Northern Ireland. He back Sir Menzies Campbell in the 2006 leadership election (more information at They work for you)
Mike MacKenzie (SNP) born Oban.Elaine Morrison (Green)John Black (Scottish Jacobite Party)George Doyle (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91306
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.2%
Over 60: 24.6%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 99.2%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 69.7%
Graduates 16-74: 22.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.1%
Owner-Occupied: 64.6%
Social Housing: 21.3% (Council: 15.7%, Housing Ass.: 5.6%)
Privately Rented: 10.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.5%
3 possibly 4 way marginal here. I’d say Lab. would be favourites to pick this up at the next election.
on current boundaries Lab might almost have a chance but the likelihood is that the two Helensburgh wards could be transferred to West Dunbartonshire
and the rest of Argyll and bute (the holyrood constituency) linked with the trossachs part of Stirling so it’s now a certainty the SNP will win.
2015
SNP: 18766
Conservative: 9454
Labour: 9343
Liberal Democrat: 7877
Green: 1198
SNP GAIN
Majority: 9312
“so it’s now a certainty the SNP will win”
I’m sorry? Is it really now a certainty that the SNP will win the seat? Given that the boundary changes you suggest you only describe as a “liklihood”.
When did a possibility which is only a ‘liklihood’ automatically lead to a result that is a ‘certainty’?
And as Labour should if anything be even MORE popular in Scotland in 2014 following 4 years in opposition, its not even a certainty that the SNP would hold a great lead in the areas coming in from Stirling IF indeed that is what happens.
I don’t see why Labour would be more popular in Scotland in 2014 or 2015.
2010 was a extreemly high watermark for Labour in Scotland. They achieved some incredible results -
5000 + in Ochil & South Perthshire
10500 + in East Renfrewshire
7000 + in Dumfries & Galloway
Labour would not have won by anything like these margins in the above seats in 2011 (and obviously have lost significantly in Ochil & South Perthshire).
I think there was a significant amount of support for Brown (unlike other parts of the UK), that may not transfer as well to Miliband. Also, Labour have underpolled in Scotland before against high expectations set by a previous strong performance (consider 1987 and 1992).
Obviously Labour will do better in 2014 / 2015 than they did in May 2011 Holyrood elections, but the Inverclyde By Election could indicate that while Labour could recover from 2011 they may not get back to their high water mark of 2010.
Ignoring boundary changes, I would expect 9 Scottish seats to change hands.
Conservative Gain from Liberal Democrat (2)
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
SNP Gain from Liberal Democrat (5)
Argyll & Bute
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
Edinburgh West
Inverness & Nairn
Skye & Lochaber
SNP Gain from Labour (1)
Ochil & South Perthshire
Labour Gain from Lib Dem (1)
East Dunbartonshire
The most likely Lib Dem holds are Orkeny & Shetland and Fife North East.
Angus remains a possible Tory gain and I would expect Stewarts majority in Dumfries & Galloway to fall below 4000. I could see Jim Murphy’s majority dropping back to 8000 but Labour increasing their majority significantly in Edinburgh South (even on a reduced share) and the non-Labour vote is distributed more equally.
In response to Shaun we have to differentiate between the central belt and rural Scotland and a significant chunk of anti con vote will transfer from the LDs to the SNP here regardless of how the SNP performs in gvt.
In response to Dalek I largely agree although I think Falkirk and possibly a redrawn Dundee Central will be the Labour losses to the SNP. At this stage I see Labour only losing 3/4% relative to 2010 and perhaps losing a bit more ground to the SNP in Lanarkshire but holding up elsewhere.
I’m not disputing that A.Cairns. All I’m saying is that you can’t go from a ‘likley’ boundary change to a ‘certainty’ about the result here next time.
As it happens, I agree that the SNP should indeed be on course to win this seat. I’m not so sure that they will though given their track record of winning, and I wouldn’t in any way, shape or form describe any SNP result as a ‘certainty’.
Dalek, I agree that in theory, Labour should have little chance of repeating or exceeding the high watermark of 2010 in Scotland. In practice though I can’t see how they could really fail. In 2014 they will be facing an SNP that has been busted by the failure to achieve Scottish independence and unpopular after 7 years in power; a Tory party that was already on its last legs in Scotland and now sinking to new depths of unpopularity following 4 years in power; and a Lib Dem party that is now DEEPLY unpopular right accross Scotland following years of coalition with those ‘nasty’ Tories.
If Labour can’t reach yet new eights in Scotland in those circumstances, I don’t know when they will.
Shaun
I take your point but I’m not convinced that either SNP or Tories will be the busted flushes you expect in 2015. It will be largely down to the economy.
Personally, and contrary to a lot of conventional wisdom at the moment, I think that the economy will be significantly beter than currently and therefore I am closer to Dalek on this.
What you say is certainly a possibility, but very unlikely unless Labour, or perhaps Tories, start giving SNP some serious opposition. Labour seem to have completely lost their nerve since May and are giving SNP a free ride. That’s ceretainly not what the UK Labour party did to the Coalition government whilst waiting to elect a new leader.
I also think that the economy will look a lot better by 2014. But I hesitate to say that the Tories or SNP will be performing well in Scotland at a Westminster election as a result.
Still, you may be right.
And it would be nothing short of a miracle if Tories were performing well in any elections in Scotland, of course!
There will need to be sea changes for that to happen again. Of course, if your definition of ‘performing well’ is winning a couple or three more seats than currently then that’s a distinct possibility.
Indeed. The Tories holding 1 seat or more would be a good result next time.
With the UK election now scheduled for 2015 and thusthe Holyrood election re scheduled for 2016, it strikes me that Salmond will hold the Referendum after the UK election in the belief that the Tories will be the largest UK party whilst continuing at 1 or even no MPs in Scotland.
How succesful would the only significant UK Party in Scotland, Labour, be in campaigning for the Tories to again rule Scotland?
Of course, if issues spin heavily in the polls towards a real chance of a pro-indepence majority in 2014, Salmond would go for it as 2014 is the 700th anniversay of the Battle of Bannockburn and the Commonwealth Games are in Scotland (and Scotland are separately represented in those).
It is only the collapse the Lib Dems which open the possibility of a couple of Conservative gains.
DCT is harder to compair to other Scottish seats because it has as much in common with safe Tory seats like Penrith & The Border and Hexham.
It is also possible that both Berwick Upon Tweed and Berwickshire could fall to the Tories. The English / Scottish border seats are almost a community by themselves.
It’s going to be interesting to see if having a young female Cameroonian will improve the Tory share of the vote, which seems to be increasing anyway.
I doubt that will have any effect on the tories fortunes in Scotland.
There was a by-election here,
in part of Oban & Bute,
won by the SNP
although not sure whether it’s SNP hold or SNP gain from Ind.
Tories came second.
Labour didn’t stand for some reason.
Details here:
SNP 44.1% (+21.8)
Con 20.6% (+12.1)
Ind (Gwyneth Neal) 17.9% (+17.9)
LD 10.6 (-4.0)
Ind (George Doyle) 6.7% (+2.9)
Independents had a large share last time, so it looks like a strong SNP result, an OK Tory one and a poor LD one.
And I agree it’s a poor effort from Labour not to put up a candidate – they only put up 5 in Argyll and Bute in 2007.
There will be no substantial increase in the Scottish Tory vote in 2015, but I think it may remain at 16% or perhaps increase a little – remember 1992?
The most western part of the UK mainland, The Ardnamurchan Peninsula (now part of Lochaber) was traditionally Argyllshire and was still part of the Argyll constituency till 1983.
It was the only part of Argyll that became part of Highland Region and Lochaber DC in 1974.
To link Argyll & Bute with Lochaber is sensible because it will unify the whole of traditional Argyllshire in one constituency.
‘To link Argyll & Bute with Lochaber is sensible because it will unify the whole of traditional Argyllshire in one constituency.’
It’s OK but it has knock on effects resulting in Bearsden being tacked onto West Dunbartonshire.
I hope Aidan Thomson’s idea of the Argyll and Trossachs constituency will be considered.
Bearsden South and Milngavie Wards will be part of East Dunbartonshire Kilsyth and Bearsden North will be part of West Dunbartonshire & Bearsden.
Traditionally, Milngavie would have been linked with the West and the two Bearsden wards with the East.
It would be possible to do this now as there would be a link between the Strathkelvin area and Bearsden South of a few meters.
I think that I am right in saying that this slender link was typical from 1997 – 2005 and within the Holyrood constituency.
This is a greater geographical connection than the one that existed between the 4 wards forming the Pollok estate and Pollokshields and Shawlands in Glasgow Pollok between 1983 and 1997.
Council 2012 Prediction
Ind 17 (+1)
SNP 13 (+3)
LD 3 (-4)
Con 3 (-)
Was Ray Michie that popular an MP because the gain she made here in 1987 certainly went against the national trend, similar to others like North East Fife and Southport.
The Labour oganisation appears to have collapsed very badly here.
Expect Con and Lab to retain 2nd and 3rd places respectively static and a 14/15% straight swing from the LDs to the SNP to occur.
2015
SNP: 13676
Labour: 12322
Conservative: 10322
Liberal Democrat: 8099
Green: 1343
I think this seat could just go Conservative actually.
It would be a 4 way split though,
and provided Labour doesn’t rise more than about 2%.