Argyll and Bute
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 15786 (36.5%)
Conservative: 10150 (23.5%)
Labour: 9696 (22.4%)
SNP: 6716 (15.5%)
Other: 881 (2%)
Majority: 5636 (13%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 6436 (20.8%)
Labour: 7592 (24.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 9245 (29.9%)
SNP: 6433 (20.8%)
Other: 1251 (4%)
Majority: 1653 (5.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 6774 (19%)
Labour: 5596 (15.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 14359 (40.2%)
SNP: 8278 (23.2%)
Referendum: 713 (2%)
Majority: 6081 (17%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: A Scottish seat covering a huge swathe of sparsely populated countryside. The seat covers the whole of the Argyll & Bute council area including many Scottish islands such as Mull, Bute, Jura, Tiree, Islay and the religious community on the isle of Iona, the burial place of the early Kings of Scotland. Other industries include tourism, forestry and fishing and, more recently, energy production through the expansion of wind farms. The seat also includes Faslane, the base of the UK`s Trident nuclear armed submarine fleet. The constituency is mainly rural. The two largest towns are the ferry port of Oban and Helensburgh, a commuter town for Glasgow.
In 2001 the seat was a rare example of a true 4-way marginal, with the fourth placed SNP within 10% of the Liberal Democrat winner.
Current MP: Alan Reid(Lib Dem) born 1954. Educated at Ayr Academy and the University of Strathclyde. Single. A former computer project manager and councilor in Renfrewshire for 8 years. He contested Paisley and Renfreshire South in 1992 and Dunbartonshire West in 1997 before being first elected in 2001. He served as a DTI spokesman from 2005-6 and is presently Lib Dem spokesman on Northern Ireland. He back Sir Menzies Campbell in the 2006 leadership election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Gary Mulvaney (Conservative) Chartered accountant, working for a motor trader. Argyll and Bute councillor.
David Graham (Labour)
Mike MacKenzie (SNP) born Oban.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91306
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.2%
Over 60: 24.6%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 99.2%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 69.7%
Graduates 16-74: 22.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.1%
Owner-Occupied: 64.6%
Social Housing: 21.3% (Council: 15.7%, Housing Ass.: 5.6%)
Privately Rented: 10.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 9.5%
DEANTHE TORY & RAY L
Thanks for your comments.
I am delighted to join you in agreeing that I do not believe that the SNP will win this seat with a 17.5% majority. I have never said they would.
What I have said is that given they won the Regional List (the “second” vote) by such a large margin, in 2007, there is a genuine possibility that the SNP will win this seat even though it may be by one vote only.
Remember the Argyll seat was one of the original 7 breakthrough seats that the SNP won in February 1974. Most of these seats have already returned to the SNP in recent GEs. This one will follow suit-possible in 2010, certainly after that.
….and we’re all in agreement the Labour Party will come fourth….
Following the SNP success in the Scottish Parliament elections, this does look like one of their better chances of a gain (as I don’t think the SNP will have more than around 7 seats next year). Especially given that they have actually won this seat before at Westminster too.
Labour will definately come 4th. The only thing that may stop an SNP gain may be if the Conservatives do well enough to come close to gaining the seat-and I wouldn’t automatically rule that out either.
I have to agree with Shaun.
The SNP are likely to get 7, 9 on a really good night.
I fail to see where the gains would come from.
Edin East, I calculate they have a 25% chance, one in four. Not most likely.
Dundee- they ought to gain Dun West.
Ochil- another gain.
Killie & Loudon: I dont see it happening. This isnt Glasgow East levels of support today, the SNP westminster average is 29%
And they risk spreading themselves too thin in pursuit of 20 MPs; perth & north perthshire is a tory gain perhaps, and Angus isnt all that safe either.
I agree that I don’t see the SNP winning much, but will they move into second place in a bunch of seats?
Do think A&B is a good bet though.
Yes Dean, Ochil is the one seat that we can say with absolute certainty that the SNP will gain, Dundee West is probably next.
Beyond that they all look a bit up in the air: Argyll is possible but could be snatched away from the SNP by a Tory revival. Kilmarnock looks pretty unlikely to be honest, Edinburgh North likewise; the Gordon result in the Scottish parliament was fantastic but only really came on the back of Alex Salmond standing there-which presumably he won’t be doing next year so we can write that one off.
In addition, Glasgow East will be lost back to Labour and the SNP could come under a lot of pressure in Angus and Perth.
Certainly, anyone expecting a revolutionary breakthrough of SNP seats are in for a major dissapointment.
Tam does raise a very interesting point. Its actually what Tony Benn said in 1974…”it wasnt all the seats they came first, it was all the ones where they were second”.
Let me illustrate a very plausable outcome: Scotland
Headline figures:
Labour 30% SNP: 28% Con: 21% LibDem: 15%
All the seats where the SNP come second: on these numbers
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill [Tom Clarke]
Lab: 54.64
SNP:22.80
Glasgow South West [Ian Davidson]
Lab: 50.37
SNP: 24.46
Airdrie and Shotts [Dr John Reid]
Lab:49.17
SNP: 25.60
Motherwell and Wishaw [Frank Roy]
Lab: 47.63
SNP:25.68
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath [Gordon Brown]
Lab:48.25
SNP: 24.01
Rutherglen and Hamilton West [Tommy McAvoy] Lab:45.76
SNP: 24.88
Dunbartonshire West [John McFall]
Lab: 42.09
SNP;31.63
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East [Rosemary McKenna]
Lab:41.97
SNP:32.24
Paisley and Renfrewshire South [Douglas Alexander] Lab:42.73
SNP:28.33
Glasgow Central [Mohammad Sarwar]
Lab:38.37
SNP: 25.60
Falkirk [Eric Joyce]
Lab:41.01
SNP: 31.71
Inverclyde [David Cairns]
Lab:40.90
SNP: 30.13
Glasgow North West [John Robertson]
Lab: 39.33
SNP: 25.01
East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow [Adam Ingram]
Lab:38.90
SNP: 28.36
Kilmarnock and Loudoun [Des Browne]
Lab: 37.42
SNP; 36.63
Dunfermline and West Fife [Rachel Squire]
Lab:37.60
SNP: 30.34
Linlithgow and East Falkirk [Michael Connarty]
Lab:37.84
SNP: 33.66
Midlothian [David Hamilton]
Lab:35.65
SNP: 28.38
Glasgow South [Tom Harris]
Lab:37.39
SNP: 23.79
Lanark and Hamilton East [Jimmy Hood]
Lab: 36.21
SNP: 28.81
Paisley and Renfrewshire North [James Sheridan] Lab: 35.89
SNP: 29.75
Glasgow North [Ann McKechin]
Lab: 29.56
SNP: 24.35
Edinburgh East [Gavin Strang]
Lab:30.20
SNP: 28.43
Ayrshire North and Arran [Katy Clark]
Lab: 34.08
SNP: 28.39
East Lothian [Anne Picking]
Lab: 31.63
SNP: 24.50
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey [Danny Alexander]
Lib:31.21
SNP: 24.95
Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross [John Thurso] Lib: 41.37
SNP: 24.73
Ross Skye and Lochaber [Charles Kennedy]
Lib:49.62
SNP: 19.48
Orkney and Shetland [Alistair Carmichael]
Lib: 42.42
SNP: 20.00
Gordon [Malcolm Bruce]
Lib: 35.94
SNP: 27.38
SNP seats next year will be as follows (in order of safeness):
1. Dundee East
2. Western Isles
3. Banff & Buchan
4. Dundee West (GAIN)
5. Moray
6. Ochil & SP (GAIN)
7. Angus
8. Perth & NP
These I am pretty sure of. There are some others they may possibly win, as follows:
9. Dunfermline & W Fife
10. Kilmarnock & Loudon
11. Aberdeen North
12. Argyll & Bute
13. Edinburgh East
14. Glasgow East
15. Edinburgh N & Leith
Of these I think Dunfermline and West Fife will be too close to call, and as we go down the list the SNPs chances diminish – I would be astonished if they got more than 12, and in fact pretty surprised if they manage that.
The SNP will certainly manage 8 seats, quite probably 9, and possibly 10 – 12, but I think they would privately be happy with 9.
Chicka
“What is it about the MP people are complaining about? Personally i think he is invisible.”
Isn’t that enough?
Falkirkbairn01
“23? Seems a rather exact majority.”
Peter Crerar’s estimate of the majority is about right.
What’s in doubt is which of three candidates wins by that amount!
I wasnt questioning the size of the majority of the time, simply the exactness.
However, I now thing the Lib Dems will hold over the Scottish Tories by about 300 votes or so.
I agree with Neil above. 8 SNP seats and may be a couple more.
This seat will become a LD/SNP/Con marginal after the GE. In my book LD certainly first and Labour certainly fourth.