Comments on: Arfon

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Fri, 17 Jun 2011 11:34:21 +0000

One of the few LD seats on Gwynedd council was gained by Plaid last night – Arllechwedd ward. It’s another dramatic slash of the LD vote share though it’s obviously in a very weak constituency for that party these days.
PC 255 (56.0; +8.8)
LD 93 (20.4; -32.3)
Lab 72 (15.8; +15.8)
Con 35 (7.7; +7.7)
Majority 162
Turnout not known
PC gain from LD
Percentage change is since May 2008.

By: Matt

Matt — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 09:04:46 +0000

I was speaking relatively about Bangor, but a town like Bangor in any normal-sized constituency would be double the size anyway. So, even though it’s population is just 15,000, its impact is just as large as a town of 30,000 in most English constituencies.

Bangor is not as Welsh-speaking as its surrounding neighbours. Of the normally resident population, about 50-60% speak Welsh, but with the students included this is a great deal less, around a third I should say.

By: A Brown

A Brown — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 08:31:18 +0000

‘Surely though Llanelli would be likely to fall to Labour, despite the apparent popularity of Helen Mary Jones? She’s lost it once before.’

LLanelli is a tough call has she has a majority of 14% but the LD vote was only 3.8%.
Labour might slash her majority to about 1%.

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 08:16:23 +0000

Yes I know that ticket splitting takes plac. But I just can’t see how someone can say that a seat which many have already argued is a gift for Labour is ‘safe’ for PC just because it was last time.

Plaid are on course for a historically bad Welsh Assembly election and Labour seem on course for a big overall majority.

At such an election, a seat which is such a gift for them must be in the mix. Especially now that we have seen Labour almost win the seat at one election.
We can’t ignore the evidence of actual votes cast on the actual boundaries of this seat-even if we accept that ticket splitting will still take place.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 08:12:02 +0000

Surely though Llanelli would be likely to fall to Labour, despite the apparent popularity of Helen Mary Jones? She’s lost it once before.

By: A Brown

A Brown — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 07:54:48 +0000

PC is doing surprisingly poorly in Wales at the moment polling below 20% consistently, a completely different situation to Scotland.

However PC will probably hold all their constituency seats except Aberconwy (which will be lost to labour or the tories) even if they drop to 3rd place.

By: Barnaby Marder

Barnaby Marder — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 06:59:43 +0000

Actually yes it does probably matter. Many Welsh voters tiicket-split between the 2 elections, just as Scottish voters seem to. Several constituencies have behaved in markedly different ways. This has usually weakened Labour comparatively at Assembly level, but not invariably – for example, Labour still holds Vale of Glamorgan at Cardiff but lost the seat quite comfortably at Westminster. Some of this is down to incumbency, but more of it is to do with how Welsh voters perceive the overall picture to be. At Westminster they know that, basically, they will have a Government led either by Labour or the Conservatives; this is not so at Assembly level where Plaid Cymru become a factor, and I believe this has a particularly strong effect amongst Welsh speakers in the West (perhaps elsewhere too).

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Fri, 01 Apr 2011 06:36:15 +0000

“The Arfon assembly seat has a PC majority over Labour of 25.6% not the 5.9% Westminster margin.”

On EXACTLY the same electoral boundaries, I find it difficult to take the 2007 PC lead of 25.6% seriously when the 2010 lead was only 5.9%.

Does it really matter that the Welsh Assembly seat looks safe when the more recently elected Westminster seat fought on precisely the same boundaries is a very tight marginal?

By: Dalek

Dalek — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 20:48:49 +0000

That is obvious from the benefit to the Tories in Conwy from the loss of that town, and fact that its inclusion here turned a PC maj of nearly 20% to a Labour majority.

Is Bangor as Welsh speaking as the surrounding countryside or are there more English speakers?

By: richard

richard — Thu, 31 Mar 2011 20:39:18 +0000

“Bangor is a very Labour town, with lots of very big council estates and loads of public sector workers (large regional hospital, university etc).”

As Bangor has a population of about 15,000 I take it you’re speaking relatively.

In most constituencies Bangor would be a rather minor place.