Comments on: Arfon

By: Peter Election Follower

Peter Election Follower — Sat, 16 Jan 2010 14:48:21 +0000

I cannot see any other result than a PC “gain”. Majority about 16%. No tactical voting necessary.

By: Jasper Moronnen

Jasper Moronnen — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 16:38:16 +0000

As someone who knows this constituency very well indeed I’m completely confident in saying the Plaid victory here will almost certainly be more than the 10%-12% mentioned above. It’s very difficult to convey just how much the Labour party have declined in the area, but I can assure you it’s huge.

Even in a Westminster context the Plaid victory here should be somewhere nearer to 20% – and it could easily be higher.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 23:12:22 +0000

I’m a bit surprised by Matt’s prediction.
But he may know the area.
I know Labour has has some very bad results in Wales 2007-2009, including here, but I don’t think it’s a pattern of one party like the Tories or PLC taking all the extra votes, so it indicates that a chunk of it is a loosely focused anti-government mid-term vote.

I think Pl C will gain this by about 12% majority.
The LD vote may be below 10%.

By: Iain Mackintosh

Iain Mackintosh — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 23:06:03 +0000

Plaid Cymru Alun Ffred Jones 10,260 52.4
Labour Martin Eaglestone 5,242 26.8
Conservative Gerry Frobisher 1,858 9.5
Liberal Democrat Mel ab Owain 1,424 7.3
UKIP Elwyn Williams 789 4.0
Majority 5,018 25.6
Turnout 19,573 49.1
Plaid Cymru hold

Arfon first voted on the new boundaries in 2007, bit like the new 18 Ulster seats voting ahead of the 1997 general election.

Cardiff Bay is more Plaid than Westminster so I would be surprised if the Plaid majority was greater than 15% (10 – 15% is most likely). Labour also had nearly three times the votes of the Conservatives so they will do well to get 60% of the Labour vote.

By: Iain Mackintosh

Iain Mackintosh — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 22:57:55 +0000

Labour had incumbancy in Betty Williams in Bangor, but that may have voted PC when the nationalists won Conwy in 1999.

Labour will still come 2nd because this seat combines their best bits of Caenarfon and Conwy. Its possible that the Tories might have taken according to Matt on the old Caenarfon boundaries, but only just.

By: Matt

Matt — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 22:03:23 +0000

My prediction %

PC 45
Lab 23
Con 17
LD 10
UKIP 5

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 15:16:00 +0000

It’s extremely unlikely – it could only happen if there was some falling away of support for the nationalists when people thought they needed to support Labour to prevent the Tories winning throughout Britain, but I think Pl C will continue to do pretty well and take this fairly comfortably.

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:34:18 +0000

Yes thats right Iain. I wonder if there is still anybody in existance that think Labour have a hope of notionally “holding” this seat?

By: Iain Mackintosh

Iain Mackintosh — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:01:24 +0000

But he does not have a snowballs chance in hell of retaining this notional Labour seat.

By: Dewi

Dewi — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 13:29:27 +0000

Alun Pugh duly selected as Labour Candidate.