Arfon
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 8165 (35.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 8072 (35.1%)
Conservative: 3431 (14.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 2599 (11.3%)
Other: 748 (3.2%)
Majority: 93 (0.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 3483 (12.4%)
Labour: 7538 (26.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 3508 (12.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 12747 (45.5%)
UKIP: 723 (2.6%)
Majority: 5209 (18.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 4403 (15.2%)
Labour: 9383 (32.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 1823 (6.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 12894 (44.4%)
UKIP: 550 (1.9%)
Majority: 3511 (12.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 4230 (12.4%)
Labour: 9667 (28.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 1686 (5%)
Plaid Cymru: 17616 (51.8%)
Referendum: 811 (2.4%)
Majority: 7949 (23.4%)
Boundary changes: The seat undergoes large changes to bring it in line with the preserved county boundaries in Wales. It gains Bangor from
Profile: Arfon is a new seat, replacing the old seat of Caernarfon. The seat is the far North-West of Wales, facing Anglesey across the Menai Strait. It`s predecessor was an extemely Welsh speaking seat and a Plaid Cymru stronghold in recent years under Dafydd Wigley. The new seat gains the small university city of Bangor (one of the smallest cities in the UK), while losing more rural Welsh speaking areas, and becomes a Labour/Plaid Cymru ultra-marginal.
The main towns and cities in the constituency are Bangor and Welsh-speaking Caernarfon, the site of Caernarfon castle where Prince Charles was invested as Prince of Wales in 1969. The South of the constituency stretches into Snowdonia National Park, with the peak of Mount Snowdon lying just inside the constituency border.
Outgoing MP: Hywel Williams(Plaid Cymru) born 1953, Pwllheli. Educated at Pwllheli Grammar School and the University of Wales. Divorced with 3 children. Former social worker, lecturer and author on social policy. Interests include social policy, international development, language and the arts (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Robin Millar (Conservative) Born Bangor. Local government management consultant. Forest Heath councillor.
Alun Pugh (Labour) Born 1955, Llwynypia. Director of an environmental charity. Assembly member for Clwyd West 1999-2007.
Sarah Green (Liberal Democrat) Educated at University of Wales. Press and PR executive. Contested Ynys Mon 2005.
Hywel Williams (Plaid Cymru) 
Elwyn Williams (UKIP)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 56647
Male: 47.5%
Female: 52.5%
Under 18: 22.7%
Over 60: 20.1%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 98.2%
Asian: 0.6%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 72.2%
Full time students: 10.5%
Graduates 16-74: 21.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.2%
Owner-Occupied: 63.9%
Social Housing: 22.1% (Council: 17.9%, Housing Ass.: 4.2%)
Privately Rented: 9.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 20.5%
Alun Pugh duly selected as Labour Candidate.
But he does not have a snowballs chance in hell of retaining this notional Labour seat.
Yes thats right Iain. I wonder if there is still anybody in existance that think Labour have a hope of notionally “holding” this seat?
It’s extremely unlikely – it could only happen if there was some falling away of support for the nationalists when people thought they needed to support Labour to prevent the Tories winning throughout Britain, but I think Pl C will continue to do pretty well and take this fairly comfortably.
My prediction %
PC 45
Lab 23
Con 17
LD 10
UKIP 5
Labour had incumbancy in Betty Williams in Bangor, but that may have voted PC when the nationalists won Conwy in 1999.
Labour will still come 2nd because this seat combines their best bits of Caenarfon and Conwy. Its possible that the Tories might have taken according to Matt on the old Caenarfon boundaries, but only just.
Plaid Cymru Alun Ffred Jones 10,260 52.4
Labour Martin Eaglestone 5,242 26.8
Conservative Gerry Frobisher 1,858 9.5
Liberal Democrat Mel ab Owain 1,424 7.3
UKIP Elwyn Williams 789 4.0
Majority 5,018 25.6
Turnout 19,573 49.1
Plaid Cymru hold
Arfon first voted on the new boundaries in 2007, bit like the new 18 Ulster seats voting ahead of the 1997 general election.
Cardiff Bay is more Plaid than Westminster so I would be surprised if the Plaid majority was greater than 15% (10 – 15% is most likely). Labour also had nearly three times the votes of the Conservatives so they will do well to get 60% of the Labour vote.
I’m a bit surprised by Matt’s prediction.
But he may know the area.
I know Labour has has some very bad results in Wales 2007-2009, including here, but I don’t think it’s a pattern of one party like the Tories or PLC taking all the extra votes, so it indicates that a chunk of it is a loosely focused anti-government mid-term vote.
I think Pl C will gain this by about 12% majority.
The LD vote may be below 10%.
As someone who knows this constituency very well indeed I’m completely confident in saying the Plaid victory here will almost certainly be more than the 10%-12% mentioned above. It’s very difficult to convey just how much the Labour party have declined in the area, but I can assure you it’s huge.
Even in a Westminster context the Plaid victory here should be somewhere nearer to 20% – and it could easily be higher.
I cannot see any other result than a PC “gain”. Majority about 16%. No tactical voting necessary.