Arfon
2010 Results:
Conservative: 4416 (16.93%)
Labour: 7928 (30.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 3666 (14.06%)
Plaid Cymru: 9383 (35.98%)
UKIP: 685 (2.63%)
Majority: 1455 (5.58%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 8165 (35.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 8072 (35.1%)
Conservative: 3431 (14.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 2599 (11.3%)
Other: 748 (3.2%)
Majority: 93 (0.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 3483 (12.4%)
Labour: 7538 (26.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 3508 (12.5%)
Plaid Cymru: 12747 (45.5%)
UKIP: 723 (2.6%)
Majority: 5209 (18.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 4403 (15.2%)
Labour: 9383 (32.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 1823 (6.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 12894 (44.4%)
UKIP: 550 (1.9%)
Majority: 3511 (12.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 4230 (12.4%)
Labour: 9667 (28.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 1686 (5%)
Plaid Cymru: 17616 (51.8%)
Referendum: 811 (2.4%)
Majority: 7949 (23.4%)
Boundary changes: The seat undergoes large changes to bring it in line with the preserved county boundaries in Wales. It gains Bangor from
Profile: Arfon is a new seat, replacing the old seat of Caernarfon. The seat is the far North-West of Wales, facing Anglesey across the Menai Strait. It`s predecessor was an extemely Welsh speaking seat and a Plaid Cymru stronghold in recent years under Dafydd Wigley. The new seat gains the small university city of Bangor (one of the smallest cities in the UK), while losing more rural Welsh speaking areas, and becomes a Labour/Plaid Cymru ultra-marginal.
The main towns and cities in the constituency are Bangor and Welsh-speaking Caernarfon, the site of Caernarfon castle where Prince Charles was invested as Prince of Wales in 1969. The South of the constituency stretches into Snowdonia National Park, with the peak of Mount Snowdon lying just inside the constituency border.
Current MP: Hywel Williams (Plaid Cymru)
Robin Millar (Conservative) Born Bangor. Local government management consultant. Forest Heath councillor.
Alun Pugh (Labour) Born 1955, Llwynypia. Director of an environmental charity. Assembly member for Clwyd West 1999-2007.
Sarah Green (Liberal Democrat) Educated at University of Wales. Press and PR executive. Contested Ynys Mon 2005.Hywel Williams (Plaid Cymru) 
Elwyn Williams (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 56647
Male: 47.5%
Female: 52.5%
Under 18: 22.7%
Over 60: 20.1%
Born outside UK: 3.2%
White: 98.2%
Asian: 0.6%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 72.2%
Full time students: 10.5%
Graduates 16-74: 21.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.2%
Owner-Occupied: 63.9%
Social Housing: 22.1% (Council: 17.9%, Housing Ass.: 4.2%)
Privately Rented: 9.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 20.5%
Intially I thought Labour would poll decently here, but I’m really not sure any more – the council results for Arfon really went bad for Labour in 2008 and the party really isn’t all that well organised in the constituency – I wouldn’t be surprised if the percentages are similar to the 2007 result, which I think constitutes a thrashing.
2007 Assembly result (fought on these new boundaries) was bad for Labour as well
PC 52.4%
L 26.8%
C 9.5%
LD 7.3%
UKIP 4%
OK, Plaid do better in Assembly than Westminster, but still should be comfortable
PC gain maj 2000
PC Gain
Maj 800
I think 800 in a silly amount- more likley 3000 to 4000 PC maj. With Labour downturn and Williams being an incumbent. Arfon was very safe in Assembly elections, so voters will and do vote Plaid here.
This is more like….Plaid gain by 4000
I admit my prediction to be a bit of a shot in the dark here.
Hi Neily….I fully respect and love it when people make predictions!
In Wales I would base predictions on a 7-8% swing away from Labour. This might be slightly higher than the overall national picture
PC maj 4,000
PC GAIN
Plaid hold. Many Labour voters will switch their vote or won’t bother coming out. Also some LDs may steal some of their supporters.
Plaid Gain.Stunning part of the world, where the English are as welcome as a Real Ale Festival in Islamabad…..!
.
It was a Plaid gain – close to the notional result showing that Welsh seats perform very differently in Assembly / Westminster elections.
COGLOAD – I can assure you that the English are more than welcome in Arfon – it is a stunning area and English tourists pay more than a few wages around here.
In Next years assembly elections this will be a Plaid win in my opinion.