Angus
2010 Results:
Conservative: 11738 (30.92%)
Labour: 6535 (17.22%)
Liberal Democrat: 4090 (10.77%)
SNP: 15020 (39.57%)
UKIP: 577 (1.52%)
Majority: 3282 (8.65%)
2005 Results:
SNP: 12840 (33.7%)
Conservative: 11239 (29.5%)
Labour: 6850 (18%)
Liberal Democrat: 6660 (17.5%)
Other: 556 (1.5%)
Majority: 1601 (4.2%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 electionEM631.
2001 Result
Conservative: 8736 (25%)
Labour: 8183 (23.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5015 (14.3%)
SNP: 12347 (35.3%)
Other: 732 (2.1%)
Majority: 3611 (10.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10603 (24.6%)
Labour: 6733 (15.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4065 (9.4%)
SNP: 20792 (48.3%)
Referendum: 883 (2%)
Majority: 10189 (23.7%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: A large Scottish rural constituency stretching from the sparsely populated hill farming areas of the Angus Glens in the Grampians, across the largely agricultural Strathmore valley to more built up areas to the North of Dundee. The main towns in the constituency are the market towns of Forfar and Kirriemuir, Brechin and the ports of Montrose and Arbroath (known for both Arbroath smokies and the 1320 declaration of Scottish independence). Industry is mainly agriculture and forestry, though there is also a pharmaceutical industry at Montrose.
Current MP: Michael Weir(SNP) born 1957, Arbroath. Educated at Arbroath High School and Aberdeen University. Married with 2 children. Worked as a solicitor for the J&DG Sheill practice in Brechin prior to his election in 2001. He had previously served as an SNP councillor. (more information at They work for you)
Alberto Costa (Conservative) laywerKevin Hutchens (Labour) Sanjay Samani (Liberal Democrat) Michael Weir(SNP) born 1957, Arbroath. Educated at Arbroath High School and Aberdeen University. Married with 2 children. Worked as a solicitor for the J&DG Sheill practice in Brechin prior to his election in 2001. He had previously served as an SNP councillor. (more information at They work for you)Martin Gray (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81837
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 23.7%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99.3%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 65.9%
Full time students: 0%
Graduates 16-74: 16.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.3%
Owner-Occupied: 60.2%
Social Housing: 26.6% (Council: 20.7%, Housing Ass.: 5.9%)
Privately Rented: 9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.3%
Perthshire North and Aberdeenshire West will both be tory gains. They are they only seats where they will benifit from the drop in Lib Dem and SNP support. This means they will also hold onto Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire and Galloway and West Dunfrieshire.
Further south the conservatives will fail to win Eastwood and will loose Edingburgh Pentlands to Labour. They’ll hold onto Ayr by less than 1,000 votes with John Scott’s personal vote making it a tory hold.
Callumn, The Lib Dems will have to do exceptionally badly to loose North East Fife, and even if it does change hands, it will be a tory and not an SNP gain. The SNP could win Dunfermline in a good year for them, but becuse it is a 3 way marginal, I think it will be a labour gain.
Midlothian South, Tweedale and Lauderdale could go anyone of 3 ways becasue of boundary changes. But because of the decline in both the SNP and Lib Dem votes, it may just be a tory gain, but very close to call.
So it is possible for the conservatives to get as many as 7 constituency seats.
Perthshire North sounds like a fanciful Tory target considering Swinney is standing. Perthshire South & K is more realistic and even then they will probably lose.
Aberdeenshire West will probably be a LD hold due to a split opposition.
I’ll be voting against Mcletchie in Pentlands but I believe he will hold it by 1000 votes.
The tories will probably only win 3 FPTP seats in Scotland, 5 if they are lucky.
Having just looked at the BBC article mentioned above, it is possible that the torries may win Eastwood. But I’m gonna stick with a prediction of 5 tory seats: Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire, Galloway and West Dunfrieshire, Ayr, Aberdeenshire West and Perthshire North.
You have to laugh at the Conservative hyping there chances in next year’s elections . We had it all before that they were going to win 6-9 seats at the GE in May and they ended up with 1 . Wven with the more favourable boundaries next year , they will win at most 3 seats and E R and B won’t be one of them .
John Ruddy, thanks. I thought that the advantage to select a list MSP for a target constituency was to allow him/her to build a semi-incumbency factor. However, I note Don is from Dundee more than Angus. The fact that selections only took place this year may mean that they didn’t run a concentrated campaign to raise his local profile in the previous years.
I’m not saying the SNP wont win, it just wont be as big a majority as Andrew Welsh had. Everyone here knows and respects Welsh, so I reckon he was worth a coupe of thousand on the majority.
@Adam I find it odd that you are projecting a drop in the SNP vote and an increase in the tory vote given that only one poll supports this. In the GE, the SNP vote increased, the tory vote stayed largely static and the Lib Dem vote dropped. Holyrood Constituency polls:
Ipsos Mori
Labour – 37% (+5)
SNP – 34% (+1)
Conservative – 11% (-6)
Lib Dems – 13% (-3)
Newest YouGov (which is the closest to supporting your view)
Lab 39%(+7)
SNP 29%(-4)
Conservative 16%(-1)
LD 11%(-5)
Older YouGov
Lab 36%(+4)
SNP 35%(+2)
Conservative 14%(-2)
LD 12%(-4)
TNS-BRMB
Lab 42% (+10)
SNP 32% (-1)
Conservative 12%(-4)
LD 12%(-4)
How could the tories gain Perthshire North with Swinney as incumbent and yet fail to take Perthshire South which is a much more feasible target? I just don’t see it to be honest.
Calum,
I dont think you can just pick out a single poll to extrapolate results. Sadly for the SNP, the Ipsos Mori poll you have quoted is the only one to show an increase in vote for the SNP. It may be a co-incidence, but it happened to be commisioned by the SNP. All other polls show a drop in SNP support compared to 2007. Some by not much, others by more.
2007 was close to the low point for Labour, so its not surprising that all polls are showing an increase in their vote.
Coming back to Angus (which this thread is about), I think the SNP will still take both seats, but on decreased majorities, because of the loss of an incumbant. I think the interest is in who comes 2nd in these seats, because I dont think it will be the tories in both.
Mark Senior shouldn’t be so presumptuous about what the electorate will decide – these elections are decided by the voters.
I haven’t myself come to a detailed view about the Scottish elections next year, other than I think it’s likely Labour will win enough seats to form the administration.
Mark Senior is the pot who calls the kettle black,
“You have to laugh at the Conservative hyping there chances in next year’s elections . We had it all before that they were going to win 6-9 seats at the GE in May and they ended up with 1″
I suppose we didn’t have Lib Dems, prominently including Mark Senior hyping their chances in various areas before the general election. mark should go and revisit some of the Northampton North and Watford type threads and read back his own comments if he wants a laugh
If it appeared that I was extrapolating polling then I apologise for that. I don’t think the SNP will form the next administration to be honest, though I reckon it will be a fairly close election. It might actually be one to lose. However, I was merely trying to point out how unlikely a Con gain in Perthshire North is:
SNP 15,318 50.3%
Conservative 8,776 28.8%
SNP Majority: 6,542 21.5%
Wards included: 1 (Carse of Gowrie), 2 (Strathmore), 3 (Blairgowrie and Glens), 4
(Highland), 5 (Strathtay), 12 (Perth City Centre).
Given Pete Wishart’s increased majority in the GE, I just don’t see a tory gain.
Anyway, I agree that Angus probably won’t see as big a majority as last time (I don’t think it would be possible frankly!) but I also expect a comfortable hold in both seats. I suspect it will be a similar story across SNP seats in the Northeast, with the tories making some significant progress. As for who comes second, it’s very tight notionally in Angus North and Mearns between the tories and the Lib Dems (less than 400 in it with labour 2,000 behind the tories) though the tories are clearly second in Angus South on 27% with Labour in third on 15% and the Lib Dems on 10%. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/08_09_10_boundaryreport.pdf
including his own seat,
or maybe he thought he had a Lib Dem MP anyway.
The Gloy calling the plopwell sticky.
My prediction for Scottish parliament constitency seats:
Labour: 53
SNP: 11
Con: 5
Lib Dem: 4
What share of the votes are you predicting Adam,
so roughly how would it end up in your opinion when the PR seats are added?
It looks to me that Labour will exceed the SNP vote by 4-7% and could be considerably more.
But I don’t know, it may narrow nearer.
In terms of FPTP seats I reckon
Labour: 49
SNP 13
LD: 7
Con 4
Overall:
Labour 55
SNP 41
Con 17
LD 14
Grns 2
My stab at a forecast this far out
FPTP
Lab 50
SNP 11
LD 10
Con 2
and total
Lab 56
SNP 39
LD 17
Con 16
Green 1
thanks both
- interesting
My prediction for overall seats:
Labour: 57
SNP: 40
Conservatives: 21
Liberal Democrats: 9
Green: 2
My prediction at this stage would be for first past the post seats:
Lab: 47
SNP 13
LD 9
Con 4
I’ll get back with the regional ones later.
OK – on the regional vote I would go for
Lab 6
SNP 28
LD 4
Con 11
Grn 6
Ind 1
Making totals of:
Lab 53
SNP 41
Con 15
LD 13
Grn 6
Ind 1
That looks like immense wishful thinking on behalf of the Greens
‘That looks like immense wishful thinking on behalf of the Greens’
A recent poll had them on 6% I think. I can see 3 or maybe 4 seats at a stretch but for 6 to be likely they’d really have to go after the SNP and the LD list vote would be in single figs.
My stab at it is this -
Lab 55
SNP 49
Con 15
LD 9
Green 1
A respectable SNP performance though not enough for them to win with the Lib Dems being punished heavily for the coalition.
And @tonyotim who do you think the independent will be given that Margot won’t be standing again?
Even if the LibDems are punished heavily and lose FPTP seats as some wishful thinkers hope for they would make up most of those losses on increased regional list seats .
Calum,
I thought I had heard that Margot was standing? Apologies if I had head that wrong.
To bring things back closer to the subject of this thread – Marlyn Glenn has said she wont be standing in the 2011 election as Labour list MSP for North East Scotland.
Calum which seats do you see being the SNP gains?
I assumed she wasn’t. I tried to google it but there’s no confirmation either way.
And @Galloglass Aberdeen South and Kincardine, Caithness Sutherland and Ross, Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, Aberdeenshire West (on a good day and if Salmond decides to run) and perhaps Glasgow Southside on a personal vote (though they would be very fortunate to take that one). Perhaps 49 is a bit high in hindsight, but over 44 is a reasonable target IMO. As for the Lib Dems, the constituencies I believe they would keep are Shetland, Orkney, Edinburgh Western and Fife NE. They are already within about 1.5% of losing their seat on the Glasgow list so that will go. They would probably gain one on the H+I list, they will almost definitely lose their central MSP, they could easily be reduced to one seat in the south (down from a notional 2), they would end up with 2 on the northeast list(maybe just the one if they hold Aberdeenshire West) and perhaps one on the Lothian list. That’s probably a load of tosh but that would equal 9 Lib Dem seats!
Actually, let’s say they hold Edinburgh Southern and don’t pick up any on the Lothian list – that’s probably more realistic.
I was working on the principal that Margo was standing again as its not been confirmed that she’s not.
About 7% on the regional list nationally I reckon would give the Greens about 6 seats as Labour looking like racking up quite a lot of votes in regional lists which will gain them no extra seats because they will have done so well in the FPTP elections. I’m anticipating the share for SNP, Conservative and Lib-Dem all to drop, so I don’t think its that unrealistic a prediction. The Greens were higher in 2003.
I would also predict at the moment that there won’t be any FPTP seats switching between SNP, LD and Tory, but all will lose to Labour.
Angus South 2011 Prediction
SNP 44% (-3)
Con 25% (-3)
Lab 23% (+8)
LD 8% (-2)
Angus North & Mearns Prediction 2010
SNP 10000 (-4.4%)
Con 7000 (+4.4%)
LD 4500 (-3.7%)
Lab 4500 (+3.8%)
A Brown,
Why do you see the tories gaining ground in Angus North but loosing it in Angus South?
My feeling is that 2nd place in Angus North could be much tighter, with all 3 parties vying for it.
To be honest, I would argue that the Tories should definitely be winning Angus North & Mearns. However, Scottish politics being as it is will no doubt prove otherwise. I imagine SNP will hold, as people will continue to tactically vote for them just to keep the ‘evil’ Conservative Party out.
Its always puzzled me why the tories should do so well in areas such as Angus North. Large areas of council houses, with some of the most deprived areas in Scotland outside Glasgow in Brechin, for example.
I wonder if the tories do so well because people are voting for them to get the SNP out!
I’ve always thought that parts of Brechin is quite grotty in parts, but it is mostly a proserous constituency – look at Montrose for instance. A lot of Tories there I imagine. There is also much agriculture in the constituency and of course farmers are often Tories. The Mearns area is probably the most Conservative part though, considering the Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine result in 2010, where the Tories did pretty well..
I’ve always thought of the north of angus as quite pleasant, lots of nice countryside around Edzell.
The tories might as well throw the kitchen sink at Angus North next year given that they have to target somewhere.
Angus isnt a propsperous constituency – average salary below the Scottish average, unemployment and economically inactive above the national average. And consider the amount of council housing in the area – above the average.
It may not be on average, but there are certainly affluent areas, and just because it might not be the most prosperous doesn’t mean the people there will certainly vote SNP or Labour. Take many hill farmers for instance – they might not be overly prosperous but will often vote Tory as they feel that party might help them most.
Kirriemuir is strong for the tories according to the local election results
Kirriemuir is certainly the Tories’ strongest bit of Angus, but probably by considerably less than the local results indicate. At the Holyrood elections in 2007, the votes cast on the day across the Angus local authority, which includes all of the current SP Angus seat and part of the current SP Tayside North seat, were as follows; the percentage figure is the performance for the Holyrood election, and the +/- is how that figure relates to each party’s performance in the local elections that same day:
Kirriemuir and Dean:
SNP 2308 (51.2%; +15.6)
Con 1462 (32.4%; -14.7)
Lab 399 (8.9%; -0.4)
LD 337 (7.5%; -0.5)
Brechin and Edzell:
SNP 1841 (48.9%; +15.4)
Con 1051 (27.9%; +19.4)
Lab 458 (12.2%; +5.7)
LD 418 (11.1%; +6.9)
Forfar and District:
SNP 2597 (51.1%; +14.6)
Con 1299 (25.6%; +10.8)
Lab 674 (13.3%; +4.4)
LD 509 (10.0%; +1.6)
Monifieth & Sidlaw:
SNP 3670 (54.0%; -0.3)
Con 1391 (20.5%; +2.0)
Lab 1136 (16.7%; +2.9)
LD 604 (8.9%; +1.7)
Carnoustie and District:
SNP 2474 (55.4%; +8.8)
Con 846 (19.0%; +2.7)
Lab 705 (15.8%; -6.0)
LD 439 (9.8%; -4.3)
Arbroath West and Letham:
SNP 2153 (41.6%; +13.5)
Con 1349 (26.1%; +4.7)
LD 848 (16.4%; +2.5)
Lab 827 (16.0%;+5.8)
Arbroath East and Lunan:
SNP 2056 (46.5%; +9.9)
Con 1010 (22.9%; +7.7)
Lab 756 (17.1%; +4.1)
LD 595 (13.5%; +3.8)
Montrose and District:
SNP 2214 (46.3%; +16.5)
Con 1132 (23.7%; +12.0)
Lab 793 (16.6%; +7.0)
LD 646 (13.5%; +1.5)
Why the big difference with the Tory total in Kirriemuir vis-a-vis everywhere else? One possible explanation is that Kirriemuir and Carnoustie were the only wards where no independents stood locally (hence the improved performances of all four parties in most of the other wards; the slight discrepancy in Monifieth is because an SSP candidate stood there in the locals). I wonder how far some of the local Conservative vote in Kirriemuir may be because a long-standing councillor attracted personal votes from those who might otherwise have voted independent or SNP?
Is that the regional vote for Holyrood? How did you get the breakdown by ward? did you tot them up yourself from the polling distirct figures which were published or are these available somewhere else?
Aidan,
I’ve downloaded the data from the Scottish Office website, in order to look at the votes in Angus North. I get the same figures as you for the Montrose ward, but different ones for Forfar and Brechin.
Did you get your data from a different source?
Pete: I totted them up myself from the official voted-on-the-day polling district figures; these are the constituency polling results, not the regional vote.
John: if we used the same site we possibly assumed that different polling districts were in different wards(?) For what it’s worth, I ended up sticking the less obvious polling station names into Google maps just to find out where they were…
I think the general picture is clear from both sets of data – this seat is a strong SNP seat!
‘Bye bye Purves I guess, unless he’s on the list.’
Purves is not on the list, Catriona Bhatia is 2nd on the South of Scotland list (fought DCT).
I think the lib dems will return about 12 MSPs next year and their representation will be as follows:
Const List
Northeast 1 1
South 0 2
Mid Scotland 1 1
Lothians 1 1
west 0 1
central 0 0
Glasgow 0 0
Highlands 2 1
How will the 7 list seats go in Glasgow?
4 SNP, 1 Con, 1 Lib Dem and 1 SSP in 1999
2 SSP, 2 SNP, 1 Con, 1 Lib in 2003
4 SNP, 1 Con, 1 Lib Dem and 1 Green in 2007
I assume that the SNP will retain 4 seats, the Greens 1, the Tories 1 but for the Lib Dems to lose they would need to be beaten by Solidarity – the only other unlikley scenarios that would cause the Lib Dems to fail to win one seat would be -
Getting less than a quater of the vote of the SNP
Getting less than half the Tory vote
Labour doing so well that they would win all the constituency seats and also a list seat.