Angus
2010 Results:
Conservative: 11738 (30.92%)
Labour: 6535 (17.22%)
Liberal Democrat: 4090 (10.77%)
SNP: 15020 (39.57%)
UKIP: 577 (1.52%)
Majority: 3282 (8.65%)
2005 Results:
SNP: 12840 (33.7%)
Conservative: 11239 (29.5%)
Labour: 6850 (18%)
Liberal Democrat: 6660 (17.5%)
Other: 556 (1.5%)
Majority: 1601 (4.2%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 electionEM631.
2001 Result
Conservative: 8736 (25%)
Labour: 8183 (23.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5015 (14.3%)
SNP: 12347 (35.3%)
Other: 732 (2.1%)
Majority: 3611 (10.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10603 (24.6%)
Labour: 6733 (15.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4065 (9.4%)
SNP: 20792 (48.3%)
Referendum: 883 (2%)
Majority: 10189 (23.7%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: A large Scottish rural constituency stretching from the sparsely populated hill farming areas of the Angus Glens in the Grampians, across the largely agricultural Strathmore valley to more built up areas to the North of Dundee. The main towns in the constituency are the market towns of Forfar and Kirriemuir, Brechin and the ports of Montrose and Arbroath (known for both Arbroath smokies and the 1320 declaration of Scottish independence). Industry is mainly agriculture and forestry, though there is also a pharmaceutical industry at Montrose.
Current MP: Michael Weir(SNP) born 1957, Arbroath. Educated at Arbroath High School and Aberdeen University. Married with 2 children. Worked as a solicitor for the J&DG Sheill practice in Brechin prior to his election in 2001. He had previously served as an SNP councillor. (more information at They work for you)
Alberto Costa (Conservative) laywerKevin Hutchens (Labour) Sanjay Samani (Liberal Democrat) Michael Weir(SNP) born 1957, Arbroath. Educated at Arbroath High School and Aberdeen University. Married with 2 children. Worked as a solicitor for the J&DG Sheill practice in Brechin prior to his election in 2001. He had previously served as an SNP councillor. (more information at They work for you)Martin Gray (UKIP)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81837
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 23.7%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99.3%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 65.9%
Full time students: 0%
Graduates 16-74: 16.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.3%
Owner-Occupied: 60.2%
Social Housing: 26.6% (Council: 20.7%, Housing Ass.: 5.9%)
Privately Rented: 9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.3%
hard to tell really. Maybe they will hold it after all but their central Scotland list seat must be in danger
Maybe the SNP could even get a 5th seat in Glasgow or George Galloway could be elected?
Last time the SNP got 27% and the LDs 7%. I suspect the LD vote will be closer to 4-5% this time round and while I expect the SNP vote to go down, unless Southside is won I’d expect them to get reasonably above 20% so probably taking the 5th list seat.
let’s suggest the Glasgow list result is something like:
Lab 45%
SNP 26%
Con 7%
Grn 6%
LD 5%
Others 11%
If there is a joint ticket socialist alliance between Respect and Solidarity they could win 2 list seats with 11%.
A joint ticket is unlikely because Respect and Solidarity may find it hard to agree whether Galloway or Sheridan takes first place.
Thats an interesting point Dalek.
I’m no expert, but I expect that the SSP vote will fall through the floor after the Sheridan trial so Respect could get 1 list seat in Glasgow in their own right. This would be made easier by the fact the George Galloway would almost certainly go top of the Respect Glasgow list and after all, he did represent a Glasgow constituency in the House of Commons for 18 years.
The question really is whether George Galloway fights more as an independent or under a trade union/socialist banner.
“How will the 7 list seats go in Glasgow?
4 SNP, 1 Con, 1 Lib Dem and 1 SSP in 1999
2 SSP, 2 SNP, 1 Con, 1 Lib in 2003
4 SNP, 1 Con, 1 Lib Dem and 1 Green in 2007″
You missed the Green in 2003. I think I largely agree with Calum here – SNP won’t win a constituency but could get 5 list seats. Last seat will be between them, LDs and at a very outside chance, SSP. Doubt Solidarity will even stand now – it was always a one-man band. Not sure Respect have any traction in Scotland and Galloway is (hopefully) a busted flush now.
Predictions for May 2011 Scottish Parliament election
Angus North & Mearns
SNP – 10000
LD – 8000
Con – 6000
Lab – 4000
Angus South
SNP – 13000
Con – 7000
Lab – 5000
LD – 4000
One of the main settlements in this constituency is Arbroath, which has been in this constituency since its creation in its ‘old’ form in 1997 and survived being shifted to another seat in the 2005 redistribution. The other seats it has been in, going backwards, have been
Angus East from 1983
Angus South from 1950
Montrose Burghs from 1832
Aberdeen Burghs from 1708
Burgh would be a better description for Arbroath, Harry. it is one of the most ancient towns in Scotland: “settlement” sounds much more come and go.
‘Burgh would be a better description for Arbroath’
Indeed, I had momentarily forgotten that term – aren’t ‘burgh constituencies’ in Scotland still referred to as such?
Yes Harry they are, at least according to some Wikipedia articles.
Yes…otherwise we would have Edinborough, Helensborough or alternatively in England; Scarburgh or Farnburgh.
It’s struck me that if the Boundary Commission for Scotland does for Westminster what it’s already done for Holyrood and crosses the Aberdeenshire/Angus council boundary, there’s the potential for a very interesting three-way marginal here. Supposing a seat were created thus:
From Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine: Banchory, North Kincardine, Stonehaven/Lower Deeside, Mearns (i.e., Kincardineshire)
From Angus: Montrose, Brechin, Forfar, Kirriemuir
(This is basically the pre-1983 Angus North & Mearns, plus Forfar and Kirriemuir.)
On 2010 results, the Tories would be narrowly ahead of the SNP, with the Lib Dems not that far behind in third.
@John Ruddy
‘My feeling is that 2nd place in Angus North could be much tighter, with all 3 parties vying for it.’
Perhaps you are right but I would be interested to hear about the campaign in Angus North and Mearns. I see that Labour and LDs have the same Angus candidates as at the GE.
Council 2012 Prediction
SNP 17 (+4)
Ind 5 (-1)
Con 5 (-)
Lab 2 (-)
LD 0 (-3)