Angus
2005 Results:
SNP: 12840 (33.7%)
Conservative: 11239 (29.5%)
Labour: 6850 (18%)
Liberal Democrat: 6660 (17.5%)
Other: 556 (1.5%)
Majority: 1601 (4.2%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 electionEM631.
2001 Result
Conservative: 8736 (25%)
Labour: 8183 (23.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5015 (14.3%)
SNP: 12347 (35.3%)
Other: 732 (2.1%)
Majority: 3611 (10.3%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10603 (24.6%)
Labour: 6733 (15.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 4065 (9.4%)
SNP: 20792 (48.3%)
Referendum: 883 (2%)
Majority: 10189 (23.7%)
No Boundary Changes
Profile: A large Scottish rural constituency stretching from the sparsely populated hill farming areas of the Angus Glens in the Grampians, across the largely agricultural Strathmore valley to more built up areas to the North of Dundee. The main towns in the constituency are the market towns of Forfar and Kirriemuir, Brechin and the ports of Montrose and Arbroath (known for both Arbroath smokies and the 1320 declaration of Scottish independence). Industry is mainly agriculture and forestry, though there is also a pharmaceutical industry at Montrose.
Current MP: Michael Weir (SNP) born 1957, Arbroath. Educated at Arbroath High School and Aberdeen University. Married with 2 children. Worked as a solicitor for the J&DG Sheill practice in Brechin prior to his election in 2001. He had previously served as an SNP councillor. (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Alberto Costa (Conservative) laywer
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81837
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 22.6%
Over 60: 23.7%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 99.3%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 65.9%
Full time students: 0%
Graduates 16-74: 16.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 35.3%
Owner-Occupied: 60.2%
Social Housing: 26.6% (Council: 20.7%, Housing Ass.: 5.9%)
Privately Rented: 9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.3%
This sounds interesting.
Could the SNP hold on quite confortable here then?
SNP are taking nothing for granted but are blessed by having one of the hardest-working MPs in the Commons - and a local born and bred - as their candidate.
Members of the Speakers’s Panel, absolutely diligent, forensic questions, and always really well prepared. Ask across the House to identify the Nat with the most moral authority, and Weir’s the first name to come up.
He’ll double his majority.
…and back in the real world…
He will maintain a majority of around the current size, because he will no longer enjoy tactical voting from other parties ‘to keep the tories out’, and I’d expect a stronger campaign (which is far more appealing than in 2005) from the tories to hold the SNP back from running away ahead.
Besides the polls simply do not support any suggestion that the SNP can double any lead. The last Scottish Sample (weighted) from YouGov gave the following stats:
Lab: 28%
SNP: 29%
Con: 29%
Liberal: 10%
Despite the obvious need to take Scottish samples in UK wide national polls with a pinch of salt, it still provides a valuable insight that is clear- Scotland is neck and neck again, and the SNP simply haven’t ran away ahead of the Scottish Tories nationally to allow for anyone to predict a doubling of the majority here. This one will be an SNP hold with a majority of around the current size.
I saw a Scottish sample in a Daily Telegraph poll which gave the Conservatives much more than they recorded in the usual Glasgow Herald polls some time ago.
Such a poll would suggest a number of Con Gains from SNP (Angus, Moray and Perth & Perthshire North) and the Tories taking Ochil & South Perthshire instead of the SNP.
A agree that such a result would be unlikely but the SNP will still not run ahead of the Tories in these seats and the majorities will remain the level that they were in 2005.
In saying that, the Conservatives made some recovery in a number of seats they had lost to the SNP in Feb 1974 in Oct 1974.
Well Dean,
Here on Planet Earth Tory ambitions are about to take a hammering in seats like this because of reports of moat-cleaning, duck islands, his-and-hers second homes allowances, flipping, men with Two Brains who can’t change lightbulbs, taxpayer-funded houses for your family, and monstrous gardening bills.
His local profile is high, positive and his expenses are modest and scrupulous. The brownie points from the electorate are coming in thick and fast. Ashcroft may as well direct his loot somewhere else, as it’s swirling down the drain in Angus.
The last post is incredibly biased and 1 sided - as it happens I think the SNP will hold on here and increase their majority (at the expense of Labour and Lib Dems), but to imply the expenses scandal is unique to Conservative MPs is plain wrong. The poster may also like to consider Alex Salmonds claims for food while Parliament was not even sitting, and some of the other questionable claims by Malcolm Bruce and Alistair Darling, to name but 2
What were the EU results for this region?
Angus
SNP - 41.3%
Conservative - 23.7%
Labour - 8.9%
Liberal Democrat - 7.1%
Turnout: 29.7%
This will be an easy SNP hold next year.
My comments of 22 May vindicated, I think!