Amber Valley
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17746 (38.61%)
Labour: 17210 (37.45%)
Liberal Democrat: 6636 (14.44%)
BNP: 3195 (6.95%)
UKIP: 906 (1.97%)
Monster Raving Loony: 265 (0.58%)
Majority: 536 (1.16%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20153 (47.7%)
Conservative: 14086 (33.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5068 (12%)
Other: 2963 (7%)
Majority: 6068 (14.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16318 (34.4%)
Labour: 21593 (45.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6225 (13.1%)
BNP: 1243 (2.6%)
UKIP: 788 (1.7%)
Other: 1224 (2.6%)
Majority: 5275 (11.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15874 (35.7%)
Labour: 23101 (51.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5538 (12.4%)
Majority: 7227 (16.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18330 (33.5%)
Labour: 29943 (54.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4219 (7.7%)
Referendum: 2283 (4.2%)
Majority: 11613 (21.2%)
Boundary changes: the original boundary commission proposals had abolished the Amber Valley seat, moving Heanor to a new North Derby seat with Belper forming a new Belper and Ripley constituency. At review stage the Labour party`s alternative proposals which kept Amber Valley were accepted and the new Amber Valley seat loses Crich ward to
Profile: The Amber Valley constituency covers the towns of Alfreton, Ripley and Heanor and the surrounding countryside. All three towns are former coal mining areas and tend to vote Labour, but the more Conservative rural sections of the seat balance this out to an extent, making the seat a marginal.
Current MP: Nigel Mills (Conservative) Works for PriceWaterhouseCoopers. Amber Valley councillor. He was the partner of Gillian Shaw, the Conservative candidate in 2001 and 2005 who died in 2006.
Nigel Mills (Conservative) Works for PriceWaterhouseCoopers. Amber Valley councillor. He was the partner of Gillian Shaw, the Conservative candidate in 2001 and 2005 who died in 2006.
Judy Mallaber(Labour) born 1951. Educated at St Anne`s College Oxford. Worked as research officer for NUPE and at the local government information unit (more information at They work for you)
Tom Snowdon (Liberal Democrat) Born Hartlepool. Educated at Brinkburn Grammer School and Wolverhampton University. Chartered engineer. Contested Derbyshire North East 2005.
Sue Ransome (UKIP) Michael Clarke (BNP)Sam `Thing (Official Monster Raving Loony) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84080
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 21.9%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 1.7%
White: 99.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Christian: 75%
Full time students: 1.8%
Graduates 16-74: 11.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.3%
Owner-Occupied: 75.8%
Social Housing: 15.5% (Council: 12.6%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 5.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.8%
What were the wards of this constituency from 1983 to 1997, and from which districts?
Very interesting analysis on .. er Analysis on BBC Radio 4 about the loss of WWC support for Labour in this seat (and others like it). Richard in particular will find it interesting as it explores alot of the themes he has developed on this site
htttp://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b00zlgdl
Thanks for the link, sounds interesting.
Thanks Pete but you might have warned me that Woy featured.
I can’t see that ‘Blue Labour’ taking off as Labour has now become the apparchiks party and aisde from having different interests the apparchiks openly despise the WWC.
I agree that this argument is unlikely to win out in the Labour party, especially with Ed Miliband as leader, but it certainly well illustrated the issues we have discussed a lot here. I’m sorry to inflict Roy Hattersley on you. At the time I posted I didn’t even know he was on the show as I ahd heard only a snippet on Pick of the Week and posted the link to the full programme before actually listening to it myself (or actually while doing so). He’s quite as pompous and out of touch as ever
Here as in so many districts there should be significant Labour gains this year. However, the Tories almost certainly have too large a majority to lose control this year at least. Labour’s banker looks like Ripley ward but the party will hope for 2 gains in Belper wards as well. There is at least one other outside chance. It does seem that some of Labour’s better hopes don’t come up for election this year, and it will therefore be 2012 at the earliest when the Tories lose control. CON HOLD in this year’s elections.
I agree, Barnaby, although the Tories overall control will be on knife edge and will certainly be lost next year.
I’m not sure Labour will gain anything in Belper though. They may do, but equally they may not. Belper has been solidly Conservative in local elections for a while now I believe.
Having said that, I can’t remember off the top of my head how the wards went last year when the general election was on the same day.
I think last years results should be quite a good guide as to what will happen this year in most boroughs. Although there is no general election this time, Labour will do a lot better than recently because they are in oppostion-producing a similar sort of overall picture to the 2010 local elections.
2
whoops – that was interesting wasn’t it……. 2 of the Belper wards up for election this year were close enough in 2007 to suggest that Labour have a decent chance of taking them this year. It is however quite true Shaun that Labour has underperformed badly in the town for quite some time.
2010 results
Belper E – C 1533 L 818 LD 848
Belper S – C 1237 L 840 LD 816
Not sure Belper E is up this year. Central is though and is a Labour target, though the swing needed isn’t that small. South I think is up for election this year and is clearly a Labour target too, especially if the large LD vote can be squeezed which must be pretty likely.
I pretty much agree with Shaun.
Amber Valley will be close, definitely not a push over for Labour. It depends on the wards up for election, which I’m not really up to date on.
My hunch is that the western side of the borough will remain Conservative, including Belper. As in neighbouring Derbyshire Dales, a lot of the LD vote there will be quite friendly to the Tories.
The more industrial eastern side – Alfreton, Ripley and Heanor – will swing back more strongly to Labour, although the BNP and UKIP are also potential factors here too.
I have a lot of family in Amber Valley and have visited regularly all my life.
Most of the wards in the East which are up for election are already Labour-held and those which aren’t are very difficult targets, Ripley being the main exception.
Up for election this year –
Alfreton (Lab maj 476)
Alport (C – 512)
Belper C (C – 302)
Belper E (C – 307)
Belper N (C – 72)
Belper S (C – 246)
Crich (C – 306)
Duffield (C – 674)
Heage & Ambergate (C – 401)
Kilburn, Denby & Holbrook (C – 527)
Ripley (C – 40)
Ripley & Marehay (L – 117)
South West Parishes (C – unop)
Swanwick (C – 85)
Wingfield (C – 608)
I can’t quite believe the results in Amber Valley this year. thought I was looking at results from a few years ago at first!
There were a couple of close calls in Belper South and in Ripley, but the Tory performance here was far and away above what most people will have expected.
Ripley was probably considered a definate loss. The only question was how big Labour’s lead would be, so to win that one was particularly impressive.
Indeed the tories did quite well here and are surely now just about certain to hold on here with the boundary changes so labour would be more sensible to target Erewash.