Amber Valley
2010 Results:
Conservative: 17746 (38.61%)
Labour: 17210 (37.45%)
Liberal Democrat: 6636 (14.44%)
BNP: 3195 (6.95%)
UKIP: 906 (1.97%)
Monster Raving Loony: 265 (0.58%)
Majority: 536 (1.16%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20153 (47.7%)
Conservative: 14086 (33.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5068 (12%)
Other: 2963 (7%)
Majority: 6068 (14.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16318 (34.4%)
Labour: 21593 (45.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6225 (13.1%)
BNP: 1243 (2.6%)
UKIP: 788 (1.7%)
Other: 1224 (2.6%)
Majority: 5275 (11.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15874 (35.7%)
Labour: 23101 (51.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5538 (12.4%)
Majority: 7227 (16.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18330 (33.5%)
Labour: 29943 (54.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4219 (7.7%)
Referendum: 2283 (4.2%)
Majority: 11613 (21.2%)
Boundary changes: the original boundary commission proposals had abolished the Amber Valley seat, moving Heanor to a new North Derby seat with Belper forming a new Belper and Ripley constituency. At review stage the Labour party`s alternative proposals which kept Amber Valley were accepted and the new Amber Valley seat loses Crich ward to
Profile: The Amber Valley constituency covers the towns of Alfreton, Ripley and Heanor and the surrounding countryside. All three towns are former coal mining areas and tend to vote Labour, but the more Conservative rural sections of the seat balance this out to an extent, making the seat a marginal.
Current MP: Nigel Mills (Conservative) Works for PriceWaterhouseCoopers. Amber Valley councillor. He was the partner of Gillian Shaw, the Conservative candidate in 2001 and 2005 who died in 2006.
Nigel Mills (Conservative) Works for PriceWaterhouseCoopers. Amber Valley councillor. He was the partner of Gillian Shaw, the Conservative candidate in 2001 and 2005 who died in 2006.
Judy Mallaber(Labour) born 1951. Educated at St Anne`s College Oxford. Worked as research officer for NUPE and at the local government information unit (more information at They work for you)
Tom Snowdon (Liberal Democrat) Born Hartlepool. Educated at Brinkburn Grammer School and Wolverhampton University. Chartered engineer. Contested Derbyshire North East 2005.
Sue Ransome (UKIP) Michael Clarke (BNP)Sam `Thing (Official Monster Raving Loony) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84080
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 21.9%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 1.7%
White: 99.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Christian: 75%
Full time students: 1.8%
Graduates 16-74: 11.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.3%
Owner-Occupied: 75.8%
Social Housing: 15.5% (Council: 12.6%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 5.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.8%
It will be interesting to see what happens next in this seat, given its history.
The 1979 result was similar to that of 2005, with Labour defending a notional 6,000 majority. Having gained this new seat with a 9% swing in 1983, Phillip Oppenheim massively increased his majority in 1987. I wonder if Nigel Mills could now do the same.
The 1987 landslide in Amber Valley occurred largely because the unpopular and extremely left-wing leader of Derbyshire County Council was the Labour candidate. There will be no big Tory majority here in 2015 unless Labour are stupid enough to nominate a similar candidate, or in the unlikely event that they implode nationally.
Amber Valley is a perpetual marginal seat, which should now tilt more to Labour than it did in the 1980s because the boundaries are more tightly drawn around the three main towns and the Tory rural areas have mostly been moved out of the seat.
Judy Mallaber was not well regarded locally. She started off with the disadvantage of being a Blair Babe from London, and never really established a profile either locally or nationally. Joe’s description of her behaviour, demanding endless recounts, does not surprise me.
In short I think Labour might have held this with a better candidate, and have a good chance of winning it back. As with many of our predictions it depends how well the coalition is viewed at the next election.
HH has explained it better than me,
with more local detail.
Although the idea of a loony left council in Derbyshire does slightly surprise me – the Labour Party seemed to have pretty good and pragmatic leaders locally in the Midlands even during the 80s,
as far as I know.
Yes Judy Mallaber sounded as though she was becoming a bit of a joke a the count, if that’s the word.
People were despairing she would ask for another one after she went through literally 3 or 4 spoiled papers as if that would have turned it round,
and there was a pile of local election votes still not counted.
Normally a recount only occurs if the apparant majority is less than the number of spoilt ballots
Not really. It occurs basically whenever the result is close enough for a returning officer to deem it reasonable to accede to a request for one.
To me it is a bit of a waste of everyone’s time for returning officers to be allowing a recount when the margin between first and second is over 500 votes. Unless a whole load of uncounted ballots have been discovered, or the initial count was appallingly inaccurate, I don’t see how a recount could make any difference to the outcome.
Re the implications of the forthcoming boundary review for this seat, my view is that it wont make much difference to its political balance. I don’t see the commission expanding the seat westwards to bring it up to the quota as that would involve taking wards from Derbyshire Dales which is the most undersized seat in the county and consequently needs to retain all the territory it can. Consequently an expansion northwards or southwards seems more likely, with the latter probably the more sensible option.
The plan for the county I’ve worked out would involve this seat losing the Alfreton and Somercoates division to Bolsover, making the latter Bolsover & Alfreton (or Alfreton & Bolsover; I am not sure which). To compensate for that I would have this seat gain the Ilkeston and Cotmanhay county divisions, and Kirk Hallam and Hallam Fields wards from the Kirk Hallam division.
Under such a plan (or any minor variation of it) this seat would be gaining territory very similar politically to that it was losing. Possibly Ilkeston and surrounds might be slightly more Labour than Alfreton and district, but there would not be much in it.
My plan would turn the seat into one that could be called South Amber Valley & Ilkeston with an electorate of around 77,500.
There was a recount in Blaby in 1983,
but I think it was about a possible lost deposit, not because the Alliance thought they had ousted Nigel Lawson.
(!)
Kieran’s ideas make a lot of sense. In many ways Alfreton would sit more easily with Bolsover than with the rest of Amber Valley, bringing it together with the adjoining and quite similar towns of South Normanton and Pinxton.
Alfreton is not the Labour bastion it was when the pits were open, but it is still a better town for Labour than the other 2 towns in Amber Valley (Ripley and Heanor), where the Tories can do quite well these days. As Kieran says, Ilkeston is in a similar position, not the Labour bastion it used to be, but still a Labour town.
Paticularly after Dennis Skinner’s retirement, Bolsover & Alfreton would see a much reduced Labour majority compared with the present Bolsover seat.
Certainly Hemmelig, had Bolsover included the areas I mentioned at the last GE what was already a creditable Tory performance there would have been even better. Although there are Tories in Alfreton the main boost to the Tory cause in the Bolsover & Alfreton seat I described would come from the addition of Swanwick and Ironville & Riddings wards of Amber Valley council. From a partisan Tory point of view their removal to Bolsover is not ideal (although there would be potential for a decent Tory performance in Bolsover & Alfreton it would be a surprise to see Labour actually lose the seat), but is realistically unavoidable.
Yes I would agree with all that.
Incidentally there are few more stark examples of demographic and political change in these parts than Ironville. When I was growing up nearby in the 1970s and 1980s, it was widely known as one of the biggest shitholes in Derbyshire. That it has changed so much in my lifetime that it now often votes Tory is mind-boggoling (and makes me feel old). Swanwick is also a very Conservative area these days.
On the basis of the most recent county elections the result in a Bolsover constituency gaining Alfreton and Somercoates form this seat and losing Barlborough & Clowne and Sutton to NE Derbys would be something like:
Labour 42.6%
Conservative 27.7%
Lib Dem 11.5%
BNP 10.1%
Independent 8%
Socialist Alternative 1.1%
So definitely a bit less Labour, but not massively so, especially given that much of the Independent vote at local elections would be Labour leaning.
Calculating a notional result based on local elections for this seat were it to lose territory around Alfreton and gain Ilkeston is made harder by the fact that Erewash council no longer have the 2007 district results on their website. Without the most recent results from Kirk Hallam and Hallam Fields wards I have the Tories ahead on a local election turnout by a couple of thousand. Those two wards are good or Labour and their addition could possibly have been enough to tip the balance their way last time, but it would have been tight.
Over all I just don’t see the point of moving the borders this is a well balanced seat. but we do have a high population compared to the rest of the Derbyshire constituency s but removing a town such as Alfriton would go to far in the other direction. making the remaining people’s votes in amber valley be worth far to much. the removal of Crich ward will do far now till the population changes again.
As for saying that Judy was landed in and has not made a name for her self. I was part of the labour campaign team in the area were I was often quoted “yes I know Judy” on the door step. when we went on the streets of the thee towns and more people seemed to know and talk to her as a well loved MP for the past 13 years that she is now know.