Amber Valley
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 20153 (47.7%)
Conservative: 14086 (33.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 5068 (12%)
Other: 2963 (7%)
Majority: 6068 (14.4%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16318 (34.4%)
Labour: 21593 (45.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 6225 (13.1%)
BNP: 1243 (2.6%)
UKIP: 788 (1.7%)
Other: 1224 (2.6%)
Majority: 5275 (11.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15874 (35.7%)
Labour: 23101 (51.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5538 (12.4%)
Majority: 7227 (16.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 18330 (33.5%)
Labour: 29943 (54.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 4219 (7.7%)
Referendum: 2283 (4.2%)
Majority: 11613 (21.2%)
Boundary changes: the original boundary commission proposals had abolished the Amber Valley seat, moving Heanor to a new North Derby seat with Belper forming a new Belper and Ripley constituency. At review stage the Labour party`s alternative proposals which kept Amber Valley were accepted and the new Amber Valley seat loses Crich ward to
Profile: The Amber Valley constituency covers the towns of Alfreton, Ripley and Heanor and the surrounding countryside. All three towns are former coal mining areas and tend to vote Labour, but the more Conservative rural sections of the seat balance this out to an extent, making the seat a marginal.
Current MP: Judy Mallaber(Labour) born 1951. Educated at St Anne`s College Oxford. Worked as research officer for NUPE and at the local government information unit (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: 
Nigel Mills (Conservative) Works for PriceWaterhouseCoopers. Amber Valley councillor. He was the partner of Gillian Shaw, the Conservative candidate in 2001 and 2005 who died in 2006.
Tom Snowdon (Liberal Democrat) Born Hartlepool. Educated at Brinkburn Grammer School and Wolverhampton University. Chartered engineer. Contested Derbyshire North East 2005.
Michael Clarke (BNP)Sam White (Official Monster Raving Loony)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84080
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 21.9%
Over 60: 21.6%
Born outside UK: 1.7%
White: 99.2%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Christian: 75%
Full time students: 1.8%
Graduates 16-74: 11.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 37.3%
Owner-Occupied: 75.8%
Social Housing: 15.5% (Council: 12.6%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 5.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 6.8%
The last time the ward was contested in 2008 the result was:
Conservative 827
Labour 482
BNP 369
Ripley is an old Labour mining/market town. It’s amazing the Tories ever gained it in the first place. If the Tories get that kind of percentage in Ripley in the general election they will be quite satisfied and could be good enough to gain the constituency.
That said, a good result for Labour and further proof that they are still a force here, unlike some similar seats where they have simply faded away. I have revised my prediction for Amber Valley to too close to call.
In 2007 the Ripley & Marahey result was:
Labour 714
Conservative 597
BNP 197
Lib Dem 181
The picture then is as you say H.Hemmelig of a traditional Labour ward that the Tories do well to win (2008 looks like a really good Conservative performance) Clearly Labour were helped by the by-election being only a two way contest.
And, as myself and others have mentioned upthread, proof that the strong BNP and to some extent UKIP vote here has almost almost entirely come from Labour people, and that how this group chooses to vote in the general election will determine who wins the seat.
It will be amazing if Labour holds Amber Valley, still with its fair share of smart Tory-voting villages despite boundary changes, yet loses the much more run-down Ashfield next door. Yet that is quite a plausible outcome.
It should also be pointed out that two wards cover the town of Ripley – this one and another which is confusingly just called Ripley. The Ripley ward is itself considerably better for the Conservatives than Ripley & Marehay
No prizes to the Boundary Committee for their naming of wards in Ripley.
The split of Ripley into 2 wards presumably brings some smarter estates and semi-rural hinterland into both, explaining the unexpectedly good Tory performance. Ripley itself is a run of the mill old Labour mining town that looks like it has seen better days.
Ladbrokes:
Conservatives 8/13
Labour 6/5
Liberal Democrats 100/1
There might be some value on Labour at those odds, with their having made a modest recovery in the polls.
Yet – I recall Amber Valley being on that list of “top-20 seats with the most discontented Labour voters” a few weeks back (although they have held up surprisingly well in the local elections here). Also the relatively high BNP support creates further uncertainty.
I think Amber Valley under the new boundaries will be pretty tough for the Tories to win, not to say they won’t do it, but it won’t be easy.
The Labour vote could drop by over 10% and they might still hold it by a very small majority due to a high vote for BNP and UKIP as HH points out. But that’s probably not the most likely scenario.