Alyn and Deeside
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12885 (32.27%)
Labour: 15804 (39.59%)
Liberal Democrat: 7308 (18.31%)
Plaid Cymru: 1549 (3.88%)
BNP: 1368 (3.43%)
UKIP: 1009 (2.53%)
Majority: 2919 (7.32%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 17331 (48.8%)
Conservative: 8953 (25.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6174 (17.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1320 (3.7%)
Other: 1718 (4.8%)
Majority: 8378 (23.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9303 (26.3%)
Labour: 18525 (52.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4585 (12.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 1182 (3.3%)
UKIP: 481 (1.4%)
Green: 881 (2.5%)
Other: 464 (1.3%)
Majority: 9222 (26%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9552 (22.8%)
Labour: 25955 (61.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4076 (9.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 738 (1.8%)
Referendum: 1627 (3.9%)
Majority: 16403 (39.1%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: On the English border Alyn and Deeside is geographically one of the smallest Welsh constituencies. The main town in the constituency is Connah`s Quay, along with Buckley to the South and the village of Caergwrle. Deeside is a traditional industrial area – the constituency contains Connah`s Quay power station, the Corus steel plant, the Toyota Engine factory and BAE Systems in Broughton where the wings for the new Airbus A380 are manufactured.
Current MP: Mark Tami(Labour) born 1962. Educated at Enfield Grammar and Swansea University. Married with 2 sons. Worked as head of policy at AEEU prior to being first elected in 2001. Parliamentary interests include manufacturing, industry and aerospace. Tami is a party loyalist – he publicly opposed university top-up fees, but in the end did not rebel against the government (his only rebellion against the government was over the religious hatred offence in November 2001, when a whip accidentally told him to vote in the wrong lobby!) In 2000 Tami co-authored a Fabian Society pamphlet with Tom Watson MP calling for compulsory voting to arrest the decline in turnout. Tami was appointed as PPS to Dawn Primarolo in 2005. (more information at They work for you)
Will Gallagher (Conservative) Educated at Cambridge University. Runs a fmaily business in Sandycroft. Contested Alyn and Deeside in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.Mark Tami(Labour) born 1962. Educated at Enfield Grammar and Swansea University. Married with 2 sons. Worked as head of policy at AEEU prior to being first elected in 2001. Parliamentary interests include manufacturing, industry and aerospace. Tami is a party loyalist – he publicly opposed university top-up fees, but in the end did not rebel against the government (his only rebellion against the government was over the religious hatred offence in November 2001, when a whip accidentally told him to vote in the wrong lobby!) In 2000 Tami co-authored a Fabian Society pamphlet with Tom Watson MP calling for compulsory voting to arrest the decline in turnout. Tami was appointed as PPS to Dawn Primarolo in 2005. (more information at They work for you)Paul Brighton (Liberal Democrat)
Maurice Jones (Plaid Cymru) Born Wrexham. Former steel worker.James Howson (UKIP)John Walker (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 78967
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 23.7%
Over 60: 19.2%
Born outside UK: 2.7%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 78.6%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 14.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.5%
Owner-Occupied: 76.5%
Social Housing: 16.5% (Council: 13.1%, Housing Ass.: 3.3%)
Privately Rented: 5.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.5%
Alyn and Deeside, whilst not the world’s most greatest directional seat, may have some interest for others.
The BNP and their allies are looking strongly at this seat – which has strong attractions for them.
The increase for the Conservatives (especially in the Wards abutting Chester) will have an effect. As will the Lib Dem presence.
Mark Tami is an effective MP, but it will be the swing against him – not his majority that will interest others.
The Nick Griffin vote etc will need to be watched, they are, unfortunately from my view, quite active. Their cynical use of local concerns is a worry – North East Wales appears to be a target for them.
I was twice the candidate for Westminster for Plaid Cymru in this constituency. Despite it being a no-hoper for us I was grateful for the support I received from all parties in making it a fair election.
Alyn and Deeside is a “relatively” safe Labour seat. In 1983, the party hung on by just over 1,000 votes over the Tories, so it is not rock solid.
There is no way Labour will lose this in the next election. It is worth noting that this is the only seat in Wales where a minority of the population was born in Wales. Hence very weak Plaid territory, and the very low turnouts for Assembly elections. I hope that the BNP is soundly thrashed here if it stands.
I read that the BNP did very well here in the regional vote for the Welsh assembly and also in Wrexham – something like 9% there, although I havent seen the detailed breakdown of how the constituencies voted in the regional list vote
Barnaby
Why were a majority born outside Wales?
Has there been an influx of English people to new developments here or does it just mean that many locals are born in Chester hospital.
Interesting point. Probably a bit of both. Some parts of the seat are essentially outer suburbs of Chester, though over a national boundary. But I think you’ll find a lot of people here originate in the Liverpool area.
Demograohically this is more like a Merseyside seat – being industrial, urban, fairly poor and containing more English than Welsh
This is a safe Labour seat – they even hung on in 1983 – there worst year since the war
The result in 1983 was very close, and had it still been based on the old Flintshire East boundaries, Labour may have lost.
fairly poor
Working class yes, very industrial, yes, but it certainly isn’t poor.
The result in 1983 was very close, and had it still been based on the old Flintshire East boundaries, Labour may have lost.
Flintshire East containing Maelor would seem to indicate that, but IIRC it also extended further up along the coast of the Dee estuary; the towns along there are very industrial and very Labour.
Alun,
In comparison to the average seat in the UK, Alyn & Deeside is relatively poor
That wasn’t the case until the 1980s, as prior to then there was a lot of well-paid skilled work in the industries around Queensferry, Connahs Quay and Shotton but with those jobs mostly gone, this area has suffered more than most in the 1980s and is still fairly deprived
In comparison to the average seat in the UK, Alyn & Deeside is relatively poor
Depends what you mean by poor, doesn’t it? The percentage of people on benefits is a little lower than the U.K and much lower than the Welsh average and that unemployment is (as of 2006) very low here; 2.4%.
I have to say that does surprise me Alun, as I always pass through Shotton and Connahs Quay on my way to Llandudno and pretty they ain’t
They certainly seem more deprived than most other areas in North Wales – which apart from a few pockets here and there is not a particularly affluent part of the UK
Unemployment is low but I’d suspect that those skilled manual work has been replaced by call centres and the like, which pay much less
It surprises me that the unified Flintshire seat was Conservative even in 1945. That would have included all of this seat and Delyn and most of Vale of Clwyd. Presumably it was the latter section which made it Tory. In 1950 the Tory majority in Flint W was 22 votes more than the Labour majority in Flint E suggesting a swing from Conservative to Labour between 1945 and 1950
Flintshire West was always the more Conservative of the two seats – despite containing Rhyl – once represented of course by the excellent Sir Anthony Meyer – a man who’d be as bemused as I am at the current state of today’s Conservative Party
There was also an old Denbighshire seat in North Wales – another safe Conservative seat before its abolition
Like many areas North of the Watford Gap, North Wales is one pf those areas which has swung decisively away from the Conservatives in the 90s and shows little sign of swinging back in their favour
The Old Flint West consisted of what today id the Northern half of the Vale of Clwyd (i.e Rhyl, Prestatyn, Rhuddlan, St Asaph) and holywell, Cilcain, Llanasa etc. Flint West was Flint, Bagillt, Mold, Connah’s Quay, Deeside and the Maelor and Marford and Hoseley. Flint East would be still quite Tory though the decline in Rhyl has seen the Labour vote go up a lot.
Denbigh was always Tory/National Liberal but not often by huge majorities as the chapel, rural Liberal vote was high right upto the 60s. Colwyn Bay made it Tory.
I actually think the Tories can be quite hopeful in North Wales. Certainly, if you look at the Assembly election results they did well and on the regional vote came within a few hundred votes of overtaking Labour.
Some demographic changes might harm Labour in North Wales. Round Conwy (the county I know best), things are getting a lot ‘posher’ and expensive housing is going up all over and these new residents don’t seem very staunch Labour.
In the first paragraph of the aboove comment ‘Flint East would still be quite Tory’ should obviously read ‘Flint West would still be quite Tory’. Excuse the typo!
Can anyone confirm if Will Gallagher is definitely the Conservative candidate here? I didn’t think the selection had happened yet.
It’s on Conservative Home – he certainly is .
in the Local Elections the votes cast taking the average vote per party in each ward was as follows.
Independents – 41.66%
Labour – 36.64%
Lib Dems – 11.96%
conservatives- 8.75%
BNP – 0.98%
It is my opinion looking at this result and the previous general election result that Labour will hold this seat.
I was interested by the high independent vote it is clearly a sign that people are prepared to vote for an alternative but looking at how low the other parties votes in the locals were it does not appear they have the strength to capture those votes.
There was an Independent candidate here in 2005 who polled 0.6% of the vote.
I suspect from those figures that the bulk of the Independent voters at local level would be most likely to vote Conservative when it comes to the business of selecting a national government but, yes, I’m sure Labour will hold on here as usual.
Vote Dave,
The Independent in 2005 was a lady who had personal problems with Flintshire County Council, Council Officers and the MP, and who ran a very public campaign against the people she felt had let her down. Most of her votes probably came from the fact she had received national and local coverage.
Theother 0.6% is steady Communist.
I am not sure that this lady’s votes will go anywhere really as she was perceived as a No Confidence vote. Her speech and reactions at the result was strong to say the least – still that is politics.
I know about the 1983 vote – but unless there has been a massive influx into the Tory wards the result will be roughly the same – and like Barry J before – Mark is seen as an effective MP.
I know – I was there as a candidate.
Welsh Speaking% 9.6%
I commented on the Delyn section that this might now be a much closer race than many people thought a year or so ago. Some tactical voting, combined with a continuing decline in Government popularity could see a close race. I don’t believe that it too much of a long shot to see labour’s share of the vote drop to below 40% next time around.
This seat at present: could end up as follows:
Conservatives: 13000
Labour: 12000
Liberal: 7000
Yes, this looks a very plausible Tory gain.
I’ve just posted for Wrexham with points that also apply here. There is a whole sting of Labour seats with majorities similar to this one which are old mining or heavy industry seats, but which following the almust exclusive reliance of the UK on the financial and service sector have perforce had to become, so far as people can get work at all, to a considerable extent long-distance commuting areas to places like Manchester and Liverpool. Other such seats include Bassetlaw and Ashfield (where the LIbDems are very active) in the East Midlands and Elmet in Yorkshire. Incidentally, there are ex-docklands seats like Bristol South in the same zone. They all seem to require a Labour to Conservative swing of about 13% and as things stand it is easy to see them all going together in a political landslide.
If I’m right, it’s not just MPs’ expenses and the credit crisis. It is structural economic change that New Labour, wtih its excess of youngsters brought up politically within the Westminster village, have not understood. And it can’t be turned round in a year.
Marginal – probably a Tory gain – we won here in the Euros by a country mile.
Euro election very not representative (excuse the grammar).
Even with the swing against Labour this is hard for Labour to lose –
a. They will be preparing for this
b. The main part of the constituency is so Labour it hurts (believe me it is so Labour!)
c. There was a case of hurting them
d. Mark Tami is actually quite respected there for many reasons
e. IF the BNP and UKIP stand here it will zap many normal Tory votes – UKIP generally get 1000 votes and careful BNP work will gain a few hundred more
Yep Mark’s majority will plummet, but unless the Chester border regions develop thousands he will probably get back
My guess about 1500-2000 majority
If you want to see a Labour seat in North East Wales go blue – look at Delyn
Or Vale of Clwyd, which is more winnable than either Alyn& Deeside or Delyn
Following on from Frederic’s interesting post it should be remembered that constituencies such as this one do still depend significantly on manufacturing industry.
There have been heavy job losses in this sector and for the workers who remain continual fear of further job losses and significant reductions in pay through loss of overtime/bonuses and the imposition of reduced working weeks.
Even among the inhabitants who work in other sectors of the economy there are still strong psychological ties to industry through family traditions or even just driving past a specific factory.
Resentment against the government is also magnified by the belief that the London based politcoeconomic elite don’t care about ‘people like us’ but are ready to bail out City fatcats with taxpayers money.
The parachuting of outsiders into traditional Labour constituencies magnifies the feeling of alienation during difficult times like now.
We need to be wary of the fact that this seat was Conservative in 1983. I seem to remember the incumbent MP launching the first leadership challenge against Margaret Thatcher.
Can Labour recover their position sufficiently in order to hang on here – it will be a close run thing
Neil
It was Labour in the 1980s. Has it ever been Conservative?
You seem to be thinking of Anthony Meyer of Clwyd NW.
Apologies – I thought that Anthony Meyer was MP for Alyn and Deeside!
The last time this area elected a Conservative MP was in 1945
“The last time this area elected a Conservative MP was in 1945″
Surely it must have been part of a bigger constituency back then?
The point is well made that constituencies like this and Wrexham have undergone substantial demographic changes in the last 10-20 years and become much more commuter seats than in the past.
At the moment especially as Mark Tami seems to have a decent local reputation their is still I think enough of a core Labour vote that he will hold on at the next GE in my view by 2,500-3,000 or so. But in due course if those social changes continue this seat could go Tory in a “good” year for them. Just think 2010 is slightly too early for that to happen
It was part of a unified Flintshire seat. This was split in 1950 when Flint West was safely Tory and Flint East safely Labour.
There is a large develpment of 3,4 and 5 bedroom detached homes that has sprung up at the top end of Connah’s Quay in recent times and the area in general is changing. This, coupled with a sizable ‘Labour supporters staying at home on election day’, could make this seat very close.
Neil – it will not be that close – Conservatives are not all that strong here and the Lib Dems are quite quiet in all terms. I would find it hard to see MArk getting less than 3-4000.
For many reasons he has become a strong local MP and is actually gaining votes if you want a more dodgy constituency look next door at Delyn
Vale of Clwyd is also an interesting one as Ann Jones managed to do nearly the impossible by nearly losing the seat in Assembly Elections to the Tories whose candidate is the San Steffan candidate this time round.
Gaining votes? Labour lost the Euro elections in this area!
I can’t see Labour losing Alyn & Deeside – Delyn, Clwyd South and Vale of Clwyd are a different matter though – btw why is Matt Wright the “San Steffan” candidate?
Matt
Westminster in Cymraeg?
Sorry, what are you asking? For what its worth I think Labour have a battle on their hands for both the Assembly and the Westminster versions of the 3 seats I mentioned above, but Alyn & Deeside should stay Labour.
JUst to add on this point – A&D at San Steffan is relatively safe.
Just as Tories are on a roll the Lib Dems were really organised and will take the Labour dislikers who cannot think of voting for Eton Dave and crew. But MIchael S is really an optimist if he ever thinks that it will go blue – Tower Hamlets / Liverpool Riverside / Glasgow anywhere with a Tory MP? Not really
Also remember Mark T has a good name when it comes to Airbus both as MP and in his former life.
Should the BNP stand – and they do seem to be quite active around there – then it will chip away from Tory votes – especially around Connah’s Quay and Aston.
Hmmm – does anyone know how many Vauxhall workers live in this constitiency?? Also, as posted on other seats, Labour is just as vunerable to BNP defectors as the Conservatives
Richard – I don’t think most people are particularly bothered about which school David Cameron went to!
Hi Richard
Alun and Deeside is nothing like Liverpool Riverside or Tower Hamlets in terms of demography. Labour’s vote here is likely to drop below 40% at the next GE.
My advice is to take a drive around the top end of Connah’s Quay, Hawarden and Buckley. One would hardly be afraid to leave a flashy car in any of these ‘average to middle income’ earning areas, which form a significant percentage of the population of this constituency. There are some deprived areas granted.
Watch this space!
Too close to call in my humble opinion. Alyn needs a swing to Con of 11.8% to go to the Conservatives. The swing in Crewe in 2008 was nearer 17%. But if I had to plump for a winner, I would put an each way bet on Mark Tami to HOLD the seat (and a similar bet on Will Gallagher to GAIN)
Which constituencies have included Hawarden since 1885?
Presumably it was in Flintshire which was a single seat until 1950 after which it will have been in Flintshire East till 1883 then Alyn & Deeside
This seat needs to remain as Labour. Mark’s majority should be safe enough to get him through. A successful and positive campaign is vital though.