Alyn and Deeside
2010 Results:
Conservative: 12885 (32.27%)
Labour: 15804 (39.59%)
Liberal Democrat: 7308 (18.31%)
Plaid Cymru: 1549 (3.88%)
BNP: 1368 (3.43%)
UKIP: 1009 (2.53%)
Majority: 2919 (7.32%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 17331 (48.8%)
Conservative: 8953 (25.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 6174 (17.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 1320 (3.7%)
Other: 1718 (4.8%)
Majority: 8378 (23.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 9303 (26.3%)
Labour: 18525 (52.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4585 (12.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 1182 (3.3%)
UKIP: 481 (1.4%)
Green: 881 (2.5%)
Other: 464 (1.3%)
Majority: 9222 (26%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 9552 (22.8%)
Labour: 25955 (61.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 4076 (9.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 738 (1.8%)
Referendum: 1627 (3.9%)
Majority: 16403 (39.1%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: On the English border Alyn and Deeside is geographically one of the smallest Welsh constituencies. The main town in the constituency is Connah`s Quay, along with Buckley to the South and the village of Caergwrle. Deeside is a traditional industrial area – the constituency contains Connah`s Quay power station, the Corus steel plant, the Toyota Engine factory and BAE Systems in Broughton where the wings for the new Airbus A380 are manufactured.
Current MP: Mark Tami(Labour) born 1962. Educated at Enfield Grammar and Swansea University. Married with 2 sons. Worked as head of policy at AEEU prior to being first elected in 2001. Parliamentary interests include manufacturing, industry and aerospace. Tami is a party loyalist – he publicly opposed university top-up fees, but in the end did not rebel against the government (his only rebellion against the government was over the religious hatred offence in November 2001, when a whip accidentally told him to vote in the wrong lobby!) In 2000 Tami co-authored a Fabian Society pamphlet with Tom Watson MP calling for compulsory voting to arrest the decline in turnout. Tami was appointed as PPS to Dawn Primarolo in 2005. (more information at They work for you)
Will Gallagher (Conservative) Educated at Cambridge University. Runs a fmaily business in Sandycroft. Contested Alyn and Deeside in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.Mark Tami(Labour) born 1962. Educated at Enfield Grammar and Swansea University. Married with 2 sons. Worked as head of policy at AEEU prior to being first elected in 2001. Parliamentary interests include manufacturing, industry and aerospace. Tami is a party loyalist – he publicly opposed university top-up fees, but in the end did not rebel against the government (his only rebellion against the government was over the religious hatred offence in November 2001, when a whip accidentally told him to vote in the wrong lobby!) In 2000 Tami co-authored a Fabian Society pamphlet with Tom Watson MP calling for compulsory voting to arrest the decline in turnout. Tami was appointed as PPS to Dawn Primarolo in 2005. (more information at They work for you)Paul Brighton (Liberal Democrat)
Maurice Jones (Plaid Cymru) Born Wrexham. Former steel worker.James Howson (UKIP)John Walker (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 78967
Male: 49.1%
Female: 50.9%
Under 18: 23.7%
Over 60: 19.2%
Born outside UK: 2.7%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 78.6%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 14.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 28.5%
Owner-Occupied: 76.5%
Social Housing: 16.5% (Council: 13.1%, Housing Ass.: 3.3%)
Privately Rented: 5.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.5%
Marchdowntheline’s comments make sense to me. labour needs a good campaign in order to prevent this seat from being too close to call
The Communists are planning to stand here
Which particular Communists? There are quite a few different ones. (Not that it would make any difference.)
I understand its the Welsh Communist Party – they are also planning to stand in Caerphilly (info from Jim Page on vote 2007)
The BNP have selected John Walker
Neil Turner – the demographics may not be that dissimilar from parts of Lpool Riverside or Tower Hamlets. As for sports cars, don’t forget Lpool’s £1m apartments and Tower Hamlets’ Canary Wharf. The extent of the change will be measured in next year’s Census.
“the demographics may not be that dissimilar from parts of Lpool Riverside or Tower Hamlets.”
Really?
“As for sports cars, don’t forget Lpool’s £1m apartments and Tower Hamlets’ Canary Wharf.”
But the people in this consistuency with expensive cars are affluent bourgeouise, in the others they are trendy urban yuppies.
There’s actually a closer comparison between the richer parts of this seat with the Aigburth part of Riverside than with Riverside’s £1m appartments, of which I suspect there are fewer than 10.
The Plaid Cymru candidate is Maurice Jones.
The Lib Dems have selected Paul Brighton here
According to Wikipedia, James Howson is the UKIP candidate for A&D.
Matt, do you know if Glyn Davies is planning to stand as a candidate for the Communists again.
From talking to people in the local area I’ve got the impression that Labour will successfully hold on to their seat here
I have a feeling that Labour may lose most of their seats in North Wales.
North Wales has pockets of deprivation and also poor quality public services. People from North Wales can see the clear disparity in the quality and funding of schools and ot investment in roads etc. when they visit England .
Look at the difference between the M56 Motorway and the A55 Trunk road.
Look at the difference between the A74(M) and the A55.
Wales has been treated like the Black Sheep of the Family.
As someone living in this area, I am surprised how ignorant others are to the demographics of this area. It might have a bearing why their parties do so badly in elections.
Manufacturing is very big in this area, as is employment. The area has not been hit badly by the recession in the sense of outright job loses. However, the general income of the area has lowered due to lots of short hours. While a visitor to the area might see it as run down, its actually got the lowest unemployment and levels of economic inactivity in the whole of North Wales.
There is a tradition here of voting for the monkey with the Labour rosette, but that is slowly changing. While there has been personal empathy with Mark Tami for his personal situation, it has been noted that as an MP he has done practically nothing of value for the area.
Connected to that, the BNP are rumoured to have a commercial base in the area. Its voter base has strong socialist backgound from the old union days and is the first choice of Labour voters who feel that nobody is listening to them. The racist angle is missing though as the county is the 2nd least diverse in Wales.
The Tory support could be split by the UKIP support meaning that even after losing support to the BNP, Labour are very likely to get in. The main danger for them is voter apathy changing to a protest vote and the UKIP not getting the support they would like to get.
Personally, I will vote for the monkey who ate his rossette – always liked a rebel!
How effective are the Labour mailings? Will the Labour appeal to Plaid Cymru and Lib Dem voters to vote tactically to keep the tories out really work, or will it backfire on Labour?
OLI, In addition to your points, you could also have mentioned that there is two way traffic for workers between the factories and offices just over the border in Chester, Wirral, Warrington etc etc.
Cars and components and Aircraft production, Steel and Finance are big employers in the region.
However, this close interaction between England and Wales may make those who live in Wales but work in England more aware of the contrast between the quality of Health and Public Services on either side of the border.
Will Klaus be standing this time?
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Lab Hold= 5,000 maj
LAB 3600
The Labour mailing leaflets are effective and can be viewed here:
http://www.votetami.com
There needs to be a Law passed pretty quick to prohibit any MEP standing for election to the Welsh Assembly.
Why????
You should not be able to hold more than one seat as MEP/MP/AM at the same time, but this just means that if you are elected in one you must resign the other.
Lab hold maj 3000
Lab Hold
Maj 5600
Lab maj 3,000
LAB HOLD
Have Plaid done enough canvassing here to have a decent view of the general situation?
http://www.flintshirechronicle.co.uk/flintshire-news/flintshire-breaking-news/2010/05/06/alyn-and-deeside-plaid-cymru-aiming-to-beat-bnp-and-ukip-in-general-election-51352-26389706/
In the assembly elections next year this will be a Labour hold.
You couldn’t get a harder working AM than Carl Sargeant so this must be a LABOUR HOLD in Assembly elections.
Bad news Alyn & Deeside is now in the top 60 Tory target seats.
A bad result for Labour – would agree though Labour should hold on in 2011 here
It’s all about ‘Demography, demography, demography’ and this has changed a lot in this area over the past few years. I used to work in the same company as Carl Sargeant in Mostyn and I wish him well.
Labour’s natural demographic advantage in North East Wales is shrinking, but probably not sufficiently to lose in the National Assembly..a great deal depends on the ability of the Government to blame the extent of any cuts on the previous administration.
More and more houses are being built in Connah’s Quay/Buckley and the more affluent middle-class Tory-inclined voters are moving in to them. This is why there was an 8% swing AGAINST Labour here in a traditional safe seat. Without these new housing estates this would still be a safe Labour seat but it can no longer be viewed as such and even though it should remain red in the 2015 General Election a big battle is on our hands to keep it so.
Welsh Assembly 2011: Lab Hold
‘More and more houses are being built in Connah’s Quay/Buckley and the more affluent middle-class Tory-inclined voters are moving in to them. This is why there was an 8% swing AGAINST Labour here in a traditional safe seat. Without these new housing estates this would still be a safe Labour seat but it can no longer be viewed as such and even though it should remain red in the 2015 General Election a big battle is on our hands to keep it so.’
That’s interesting
I’ve always seen this part of North Wales as the least affluent – towns like Shotton, Connars Quay, Queensferry and Buckley would seem to be traditionally working class and Labour-voting, so I did wonder where the Tory vote would have come from
Explains, at least partially, why Barry Jones was returned for Labour in the annus horiblus of 1983 with a similar majority to that now enjoyed by Mark Tami – and North Wales as a whole was considerably more Conservative then than it is now
Yes this seat is quickly trending Conservative. 15.9% swing since 1997 relative to 9.8% nationally leaving a demographic swing of 6.1%. At this rate in an even year the Tories will have caught up in 25 years, which isnt too bad for them given that they were 40 points behind they were in 1997
I think my ex-girlfriend now lives in this seat. Not 100% if it’s this or Delyn.
Surely one of the most interesting posts ever on UKPR…
If the boundary changes go through, there would be two constituencies with Deeside in the name: this, and Wirral Deeside.
”Surely one of the most interesting posts ever on UKPR…”
Cheers mate
If we accept that this constituency’s linear predecessors have been East Flint (1950-1983) and Flint before that, this is a very rare example of a seat which was won in 1945 by the Conservatives but by Labour ever since. There is also Glasgow Central which was retained by the Tories in 1945 mainly thanks to the business vote, but taken by Labour in 1950 when that was abolished. Don’t think there are any other examples but I may be wrong.
Clearly had Flint East existed in 1945 it would have been a Labour seat as the Conservative majority was only about 1,000 and it would have been several thousand in the area which became Flint West. Nevertheless it is interesting that this was larger than the Conservative lead in the two Flint seats combined in 1950 when it was just 22. If we combine the two Flint seats Labour were only ahead in 1966 and the two 1974 elections but were probably ahead in 1992 (and all elections since of course)
(1992 is of course complicated by part of the old Flint West being in Clwyd NW, this being the most Labour part of that seat namely Rhyl, while on the other hand some very Conservative parts of Flint East (the Maelor) were in Wrexham
Very good point Pete – and the picture of Labour doing pretty well in North Wales in 1950 is added to by noting that the party also won Conway, which I think was essentially the successor to the former Caernarvon Boroughs, which was narrowly won by the Tories in 1945 in a close contest. However it was lost in 1951 & not recaptured until 1966.
Once went to a McDonalds in Queensferry on the way to a camping trip a few years back- Can anyone confirm if this is the nearest town to Merseyside in Wales?
Probably Sealand is the absolute closest. Theres quite a few towns about equidistant (as the crow flies), Flint, Connahs Quay etc