Altrincham and Sale West
2010 Results:
Conservative: 24176 (48.95%)
Labour: 11073 (22.42%)
Liberal Democrat: 12581 (25.47%)
UKIP: 1563 (3.16%)
Majority: 11595 (23.48%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 20378 (47%)
Labour: 12888 (29.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 9397 (21.7%)
Other: 717 (1.7%)
Majority: 7489 (17.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 20569 (46.4%)
Labour: 13410 (30.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 9595 (21.7%)
UKIP: 736 (1.7%)
Majority: 7159 (16.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 20113 (46.2%)
Labour: 17172 (39.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6283 (14.4%)
Majority: 2941 (6.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 22348 (43.2%)
Labour: 20843 (40.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 6535 (12.6%)
Referendum: 1348 (2.6%)
Other: 708 (1.4%)
Majority: 1505 (2.9%)
Boundary changes: only very minor boundary changes, losing part of the Bucklow St Martin ward to
Profile: Altrincham and Sale West is the only Conservative seat in Greater Manchester. Altrincham and Sale were both part of Cheshire until the local government re-organisation in 1974 . Both towns still have a Cheshire address, and still retain a grammar school system. The seat is extremely affluent and contains some of the wealthiest of Manchester`s suburbs such as Hale and Bowden. It also home to a large Jewish community. While the seat is safely Conservaitve there is significant Labour support there, drawing upon the council estates in places like Ashton upon Mer/p>
Current MP: Graham Brady(Conservative) born 1967, Salford Educated at Altrincham Grammar and Durham University. Married with 2 children. Worked in Public Relations (for Shandwick) and the CPS. Brady first became involved in politics as a teenager, campaigning to save Grammar schools in Trafford. He was first elected in 1997, becoming the youngest Conservative MP at the time. He was appointed as a whip under William Hague before serving as education spokesman under Hague and IDS. In 2003 he became PPS to the then party leader, Michael Howard. He was shadow minister for Europe from 2005 until 2007, when he resigned after criticising the party`s policy on grammar schools (more information at They work for you)
Graham Brady(Conservative) born 1967, Salford Educated at Altrincham Grammar and Durham University. Married with 2 children. Worked in Public Relations (for Shandwick) and the CPS. Brady first became involved in politics as a teenager, campaigning to save Grammar schools in Trafford. He was first elected in 1997, becoming the youngest Conservative MP at the time. He was appointed as a whip under William Hague before serving as education spokesman under Hague and IDS. In 2003 he became PPS to the then party leader, Michael Howard. He was shadow minister for Europe from 2005 until 2007, when he resigned after criticising the party`s policy on grammar schools (more information at They work for you)
Tom Ross (Labour) Educated at Altrincham Grammar School. Secretary of the local Labour association
Jane Brophy (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Chorlton High School and the University of Leeds. Nutritionist and researcher for The Vegetarian Society. Trafford councillor from 1999-2007. Contested Eccles 2005. 
Ken Bullman (UKIP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88312
Male: 48.6%
Female: 51.4%
Under 18: 22.8%
Over 60: 21.8%
Born outside UK: 6.9%
White: 95.2%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 2.2%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 76.7%
Hindu: 0.7%
Jewish: 2.4%
Muslim: 1.7%
Full time students: 2.8%
Graduates 16-74: 30.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 20%
Owner-Occupied: 77.9%
Social Housing: 13% (Council: 7.8%, Housing Ass.: 5.2%)
Privately Rented: 7.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.9%
State of play heading into the Trafford council elections:
Conservatives 37
Labour 22
Lib Dems 4
What do people think? Labour would need 32 seats to form a majority. I reckon Labour will take Urmston and Sale Moor comfortably. The 2011 data would imply that they have a chance in Broadheath, and Flixton too. The Conservatives might compensate themselves by taking Timperley off the Lib Dems. Therefore, I’ve got the Conservatives to hold on (just).
I think the main interest will be what happens in Broadheath and Village but everywhere else should have the same ward results as last year.
The Conservatives retained control but lost Sale Moor, Urmston and Broadheath to Labour. They failed to take Timperley or Village from the Lib Dems, a microcosm of the their sluggish performance against their Coalition partners this year.
Not too bad results in Trafford actually. I think the Village and Timperley results will be most dissapointing. The others were entirely expected.
Yes, the main thing is that they retained control- they held onto Flixton too, which was good going.
Labour have been notable by their silence on the Trafford results. I remember when they used to crow about Trafford as the centre piece of their local election defence. But this time, I don’t even think I’ve heard it mentioned once…not even by the BBC.
Before the local elections it was opined in various places that the Tories were pretty certain to hold onto the council but in fact if just 139 voters in 3 wards had voted Labour instead of Conservative the latter would have lost their majority:
St Mary’s: Con maj 19 votes over Lab
Davyhulme: Con maj 104 votes over Lab
Flixton: Con maj 151 votes over Lab
The new composition of the council is Con 34, Lab 25, LD 4.
2 of those gains aren’t available to Labour in 2014 since we won both Urmston & Sale Moor in 2010. If the Tories are to lose control next time around, Labour will have to win, in addition to Broadheath, at least 2 of the wards narrowly lost this year and that won’t be easy unless the Tories are doing even worse in the polls than they are now.
Prediction for 2015-
Brady (Tory)- 24, 946 (51.2%, +2.3%)
Labour- 14, 988 (30.7%, +8.3%)
Lib Dem- 6, 229 (12.7%, -12.8%)
Others- 2, 554 (5.2%, +2.0%)
Con hold.
Turnout- 48, 717.
Majority- 9, 958 (20.4%)
Swing- +3.0% From Con to Lab.
I’d knock off 3% off the tories, add 3% to the LDs and subtract 1.5-2% from Labour.
My reasoning being the LDs did better locally in May 2012 (holding their two seats up) than May 2011.
The 2012 local election results implied:
Tory 47.5
Lab 27.9
LD 15.6
So, the Tory vote held up well in what was a bad year nationally. The Labour vote advanced at the expense of the Lib Dems but only to a point. I think 2015 will be better for the Tories than 2012 so:
Conservatives 50
Labour 28.5
LD 15