The one minor ward change will assist Graham Brady- Bucklow St Martin is staunch Labour; this used to have a thumping Conservative majority in the ’80s when it was the old Altrincham and Sale consitiuency but should remain safe next time with an increased majority- very affluent and leafy South Manchester ‘though very mixed in some wards.

Another example of extremes of wealth and poverty living side by side - in this case Hale and Bowdon, just about the wealthiest wards in the entire North West sitting next to the Wyhtenshawe estate (which as David Boothroyd pointed out on the relevent thread includes the statistically most deprived ward in the whole country - Benchill). Moreover Bramhall in the Cheadle constituency adn ont he other side of Wythenshawe is not far down the social scale from Hale.
Before 1997 there was at some stage a proposal to create seerate Altrincham and Sale constituencies, with Altrincham including much of the Wythensawe estate (the northern wards of that seat I think were to go in with Withington.) Had such an arrangement been adopted there would now be no Conservative seats in Greater Manchester, although depending exactly how they were drawn it would open the possibilty for two Tory seats in this area in more favourable circumstances, while there is really only the possibilty of one however favbourable the circumstances.

The major question here appears to be whether the Lib Dems could overtake Labour if the latter are doing badly nationally at the time of the next election. Demographics and previous information posted on this site suggests that Labour may have a solid minorioty vote, but on the other hand the change between 2001 and 2005 suggests a swing from Labour to Lib Dems, with the Tory vote staying practically the same. If the swing were repeated next time, the Lib Dems could become the challengers. A tactical vote could then develop. The Tories do not have an absolute majority of the votes, but are, however, near enough to be able to withstand tactical voting.

The “Other” vote here is notably low.

My prediction for this seat is as follows…

STRENGTH RATING: Safe

CONSERVATIVE…..21,519 (49.61%)
Labour………..12,598 (29.04%)
Liberal Democrat.8,890 (20.49%)
Others………..373 (0.86%)
Total…………43,380 (100.00%)
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Majority………8,921 (20.57%)

CONSERVATIVE HOLD

SUMMARY

A comfortable seat for the Conservatives with a sizable increase in it’s majority.

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*My predictions are based on previous Westminster Parliamentary results in the constituency and perceived current national trends.*

I don’t know what “perceived national trends” you are using. That forecast basically assumes no change from 2005. The Tory majority will surely be much higher than that.