Airdrie and Shotts
2010 Results:
Conservative: 3133 (8.74%)
Labour: 20849 (58.16%)
Liberal Democrat: 2898 (8.08%)
SNP: 8441 (23.55%)
Independent: 528 (1.47%)
Majority: 12408 (34.61%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 19568 (59%)
SNP: 5484 (16.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 3792 (11.4%)
Conservative: 3271 (9.9%)
Other: 1043 (3.1%)
Majority: 14084 (42.5%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 electionEM631.
2001 Result
Conservative: 1960 (6.2%)
Labour: 18478 (58.2%)
Liberal Democrat: 2376 (7.5%)
SNP: 6138 (19.3%)
Other: 2784 (8.8%)
Majority: 12340 (38.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 3660 (8.9%)
Labour: 25460 (61.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 1719 (4.2%)
SNP: 10048 (24.4%)
Referendum: 294 (0.7%)
Majority: 15412 (37.4%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: A solid working class constituency to the East of Glasgow. Both Airdrie and Shotts are have suffered the effects of the decline of traditional industries such as steel. Religion remains a factor in local politics, Airdrie is mainly protestant while its neighbour, Coatbridge, is a largely Catholic. The 1994 by-election in Monklands East (the predecessor seat) following the death of Labour leader John Smith was dominated by accusations of sectarian bias by the (overwhelmingly Catholic) Labour group on Monklands council. The M8 runs through the centre of the constituency, dividing Airdrie to the North from Shotts and the surrounding villages to the South. The constituency includes HMP Shotts, one of the largest prisons in Scotland.
Current MP: Pamela Nash (Labour)
Ruth Whitfield (Conservative) Pamela Nash (Labour) John Love (Liberal Democrat)Sophia Coyle (SNP)John McGeechan (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 83103
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 24.5%
Over 60: 18.8%
Born outside UK: 1.5%
White: 98.9%
Asian: 0.6%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77.5%
Full time students: 0%
Graduates 16-74: 10.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 43.4%
Owner-Occupied: 55.6%
Social Housing: 38.7% (Council: 36.1%, Housing Ass.: 2.7%)
Privately Rented: 1.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 1.9%
Lab Hold= 9,000 majority
LAB 9,400
Labour
SNP
Conservative
Libdem
Majority – 12000
Lab hold maj 11,000
Lab Hold
Maj 13 800
Lab maj 10,500
Labour HOLD
There was a big SNP presence outside the stadium at the Airdrie – Dunfermline game today. I chatted to a couple of the canvassers and they said they’d had a good response, and indeed a fair few folk inside the stadium were wearing SNP stickers.
I don’t see the SNP winning this seat, but I certainly wouldn’t have imaged such an SNP presence in Airdrie in the recent past. The canvassers said it was more about building a base for the Scottish Parliament elections next year.
LAB HOLD
@Tulloch Gorum – the SNP came within about 2,000 votes of taking the Scottish Parliament seat, so I’d imagine they’ll be targetting this so they can at least keep the list seats in central even if they lose Almond Valley and Falkirk West.
Tories just nosed ahead of the LDs here, despite polling fewer votes than in 2005.
It wasn’t enough to win this time.
Pamela Nash has had a few problems convincing people that someone born in June 1984 can be an MP:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/mp-s-youth-proves-an-obstacle-1.1037369
I suspect the SNP can do well again here in 2011 but that Labour will have a majority of a few thousand.
Prediction: Airdrie and Shotts 2011
Labour 13500
SNP 10500
Cons 2000
LD 1000
Indeed, the Westminster results weren’t anything like as bad here for the SNP with a tidy swing towards them, though Labour look comfortable enough. Did the Monklands Hospital issue not give the SNP a bigger swing here in 2007 though?
Yes Calum I believe they also had “Save the Monklands” on the ballot paper too. I would guess.
Labour 14000
SNP 9500
Con 2000
LD 800
It was surprising how close the SNP came to gaining Monklands East in 1994, after the death of John Smith.
One could call this seat Labour’s equivalent of Bromley & Chislehurst.
The SNP posters around Airdrie in May said “Sophia Coyle – saved Monklands Hospital”
What were the wards of the old Monklands East from 1983 to 1997?
Airdrie East, Airdrie South and West, Chapelhall & Salsburgh.
These Monklands electoral divisions were numbered 54, 55 and 56 respectively.
These were the Strathclyde regional electoral divisions of course rather than the Monklands district wards, but that is what was used as the building blocks for Scottish constituencies in 1983
Each of the regional electoral divisions was divided into several district council wards. In the case of Monklands, there were four district council wards per Strathclyde electoral division. Thus Coatbridge North was divided into wards 1-4 of Monklands district council, Coatbridge South into wards 5-8, Airdrie East into wards 9-12, Airdrie South and West into wards 13-16 and Chapelhall & Salsburgh into wards 17-20. I can’t remember their names, but you’ll find them easily enough in lists of results.
I didn’t realise the 2007 result was caused mainly from a single issue campaign here, I’m going to change my prediction for next year here.
Airdrie and Shotts 2011
Lab 15500
SNP 8100
Con 2100
LD 900
John Reid was on the Politics program today. He did say some very interesting things about the past and present.
I note that the SNP candidate for Holyrood 2011 is the well known Alex Neil.
That being the case, and given that the SNP promise to save Monklands hospital was actually carried out, I suggest that A Brown’s prediction will be well wide of the mark.
‘That being the case, and given that the SNP promise to save Monklands hospital was actually carried out, I suggest that A Brown’s prediction will be well wide of the mark’
Perhaps, my earlier prediction was narrower though.
Interesting that by coincidence I have spotted today a report by the Press Association of another U turn by Labour (following free university tuition and frozen council tax). I think the fact that Labour have gone out of the way to say this implies a worry about this seat.
“Gray makes A&E pledge after U-turn
(UKPA) – 4 hours ago
Labour leader Iain Gray has pledged to protect the future of two accident and emergency departments that his party previously endorsed for closure.
The promise for Monklands and Ayr hospitals comes four years after the SNP reversed the closure decision, which had been rubber-stamped by the Labour-led Scottish Executive.
Mr Gray, who visited Monklands in Airdrie on Wednesday, said: “I know how much communities value local services and I am making an absolute guarantee that if I become first minister the A&E departments at Monklands and Ayr will have a secure future.”
I also note that the Liberal Democrat campaign manager, George Lyon MEP (no lover of the SNP having lost his Argyll seat to the SNP in 2007) says
“People haven’t forgotten that it was Labour who planned to close the A&E at Monkland’s Hospital.”
North Lanarkshire Council 2012 Prediction
Lab 39 (-1)
SNP 27 (+4)
Ind 4 (-1)
Con 0 (-1)
LD 0 (-1)
North Lanarkshire Council 2012 results
First Preferences
Lab 51% (+2%)
SNP 34% (+2%)
Con 5% (-2%)
LD 0% (-1%)
Oth 9% (-1%)
Seats
Lab 41 (+1)
SNP 26 (+3)
Oth 3 (-2)
Con 0 (-1)
LD 0 (-1)
The local election results in 2007 and 2012 were identical here (at least in terms of who carried which ward).
2015 most likely
Lab 55.5 (-2.7)
SNP 32.5 (+9)
Con 7.5 (-1.2)
LD 3.1 (-5)
others 1.4
Turnout 59%