Comments on: Aberdeen South

By: Shaun Bennett

Shaun Bennett — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 08:06:44 +0000

It is a mark of how strong Labour have become here that this seat remains safe almost however it is drawn. There is no chance of Labour losing Aberdeen South now for a number of years.

By: Aidan Thomson

Aidan Thomson — Wed, 26 Oct 2011 01:52:32 +0000

I think much will depend on where the Lib Dem vote goes here. If it goes Labour, then it looks like being a safe-ish Labour seat, particularly since the boundary changes proposed here would see the seat take in a lot of inner-city territory that’s currently in North (but was previously in Central, and before 1992 in South). On the other hand, both the current seat and the revised seat would be SNP on Holyrood voting patterns. I wouldn’t like to predict the order of the parties here next time.

Lone Gunman: my figures were extrapolated from the 2010 election results, and, like Anthony’s estimates, are not predictions of how elections, but estimates of what the results would probably have been in the new seats in the 2010 general election had everyone voted the same way as they did back then. I can assure you that I haven’t overestimated the Conservatives’ votes. The reason that they came out ahead in one seat is because it straddles Aberdeenshire and Angus: the Tories came a decent second in both predecessor seats, Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine and Angus, in 2010. The SNP, who won Angus, polled poorly in AbW&K, whilst the Lib Dems, who won AbW&K, polled poorly in Angus; it is therefore possible that the Tories might have come through the middle to win a seat in that area without actually being first-placed in any of the wards in the constituency. Much will depend on how such a seat is drawn. The boundaries I suggested above would have given the Tories a small lead; the seat proposed a fortnight ago by the BCS would have had the SNP ahead in 2010, though not by much. In any case, saying that the Tories would have won a seat in 2010 had it existed then is certainly not the same thing as predicting that they would win it the next time; as a great many Scottish seats have shown over the years, voters have become adept at taking into account local factors and voting tactically.

By: Joe James B

Joe James B — Tue, 25 Oct 2011 23:19:09 +0000

Quite interesting re-reading the election predictions here. A lot of people did predict LD gain,
probably influenced by the debates,
as the results in 2007 suggested otherwise.

I predicted Con gain, and lost of a lot of money on it, so was very disappointed, but that’s another matter.

Pretty safe for Labour now I think, although there is SNP strength in nearby seats.

By: Stephen Botfield

Stephen Botfield — Sat, 08 Oct 2011 11:32:38 +0000

Iain Sproat passed away on September 29.Obituary in the “Daily Telegraph”.

By: Lone gunman

Lone gunman — Fri, 15 Apr 2011 21:28:22 +0000

Adian your predictions for the Conservatives are to high. The Tories don’t have enough activists to get there vote out, to win anything first past the post, in the north east. One of the reasons I’ll be voting against AV.

By: Aidan Thomson

Aidan Thomson — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 10:11:11 +0000

Re my suggested new seats, Calum’s predictions of the political effects are pretty good. After a bit of number-crunching, and considering only the four main parties, this is what I ended up with in terms of percentages (based on 2010 results):

Aberdeen North: Lab 43.1, SNP 23.9, LD 19.7, Con 13.2
Aberdeen South: Lab 37.7, LD 28.7, Con 20.8, SNP 12.7
Angus North & Mearns: Con 30.9, SNP 28.2, LD 25.2, Lab 15.7
Angus South & Dundee East: SNP 38.1, Lab 27.6, Con 22.7, LD 11.6
Banff & Buchan: SNP 43.1, Con 29.5, Lab 14.6, LD 12.7
Dundee Central (which would include the current West): Lab 48.9, SNP 31.5, LD 11.3, Con 8.2
Gordon: LD 41.8, Con 24.9, SNP 20.0, Lab 13.3
Moray, Nairn & Badenoch: SNP 32.7, LD 24.2, Con 23.5, Lab 19.6

By: Aidan Thomson

Aidan Thomson — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 10:04:16 +0000

There were big boundary changes in Aberdeen South in 1997, Calum. Only a little over half the old Aberdeen South (Tory Hazlehead and Holburn, Labour Torry and Nigg, and marginal Ferryhill) remained in the new Aberdeen South. The remainder (Tory Rosemount and Rubislaw, and Labour St Nicholas and St Clement’s) was moved to the newly created Aberdeen Central.

The rest of the new Aberdeen South was taken from suburban Aberdeen wards that were previously in Kincardine & Deeside: Tory-Lib Dem marginal Peterculter and Craigton, and Labour-leaning (but, in K&D, Lib Dem-tactically-voting) Auchinyell and Kincorth. Thus the notional result for the new Aberdeen South in 1992 had the Tories a few thousand ahead of the Lib Dems, with Labour just behind in third.

Thus much of the battle was establishing whether Labour or the Lib Dems was best placed to defeat the Tories. There had clearly been a big tactical vote for the Lib Dems in Auchinyell and Kincorth which would now unwind in Labour’s favour; but there had also probably been a tactical vote by some Lib Dems for Labour in the old Aberdeen South, which might unwind in the opposite direction. (And there was also probably some tactical voting by Lib Dems in Aberdeen South for the Tories *against* Labour, which might also unwind.)

Both the Labour and Lib Dem candidates were good ones: Anne Begg, because she had a national profile (she’d won Scotswoman of the Year recently), and Nicol Stephen, because he’d been briefly been MP for Kincardine & Deeside, and had been a popular local councillor (in Craigton) before that. I suspect that all the tactical unwinding and ‘rewinding’ (people working out how to vote tactically in the new seat) cancelled itself out in the end, and that Begg took the seat largely on the national swing; her vote was substantially up on the notional 1992 result for the new seat.

By: CALUM SMITH

CALUM SMITH — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 02:02:54 +0000

The 1997 result here was, IMO, a rather eccentric one. There was in fact a significant swing from Labour to LD. In fact the Labour vote only rose 0.5% upon the 1992 result. I would have expected the Tory decrease of course, a slight LD fall and a large Labour increase in this normally Labour/Tory marginal seat, but instead it seems that many voters tactically voted LD to get the Tories out. This is in spite of the fact that Labour were surely a more obvious choice…

By: calumsmith_0308

calumsmith_0308 — Fri, 04 Feb 2011 18:07:52 +0000

A fairly impressive prediction of what the new seats might be, Aidan.

Banff and Buchan including Keith and Buckie would most likely be an SNP/Con marginal

Moray, Nairn and Badenoch…Ditto, with a significant LD and Lab vote as well though

Angus North and Mearns – Could be Con/SNP or LD

Angus South and Dundee East – Almost certainly fairly safe SNP, with Lab/Con fighting it out for a distant second place.

Dundee Central (and West?) – Safe Labour.

Aberdeen South – Lab/LD/Con marginal, with a little less LD perhaps?

Aberdeen North – Safe Labour with SNP a decent second

By: Aidan Thomson

Aidan Thomson — Thu, 03 Feb 2011 18:08:26 +0000

I could see Gordon still existing; the sort of enlarged seat I have in mind is basically the current Gordon, minus Dyce and Bridge of Don, but plus Westhill, Donside and upper Deeside. And yes, the changes would help the Lib Dems and the Tories at the expense of the SNP and, particularly, Labour. The other seats I’d have in mind in this neck of the woods would be:
Banff & Buchan (current seat plus Keith and Buckie);
Moray, Nairn & Badenoch (rest of Moray, plus Nairn, Culloden/Ardesier and Badenoch & Strathspey);
Angus North & Mearns (Kincardineshire, including Banchory, plus Montrose, Brechin, Forfar and Kirriemuir);
Angus South & Dundee East (rest of Angus, plus The Ferry and North East wards of Dundee);
Dundee Central (rest of Dundee).
The trouble is that they’re all a little on the large side, so there would have to be a bit of nipping and tucking to ensure that they conform to the 5%-from-the-quota rule. But I’m sure that there are ways this could be done.

The new Aberdeen South in this arrangement would basically be the 1983-97 Aberdeen South, plus the parts of Aberdeen city that were in Kincardine and Deeside during this period, and which were transferred to Aberdeen South in 1997. Such a seat would have been Tory-held prior to 1997, though would obviously be Labour-held now.