Aberdeen South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 8914 (20.71%)
Labour: 15722 (36.53%)
Liberal Democrat: 12216 (28.39%)
SNP: 5102 (11.86%)
BNP: 529 (1.23%)
Green: 413 (0.96%)
Others: 138 (0.32%)
Majority: 3506 (8.14%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 15272 (36.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 13924 (33.5%)
Conservative: 7134 (17.1%)
SNP: 4120 (9.9%)
Other: 1171 (2.8%)
Majority: 1348 (3.2%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 7098 (19.2%)
Labour: 14696 (39.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 10308 (27.9%)
SNP: 4293 (11.6%)
Other: 495 (1.3%)
Majority: 4388 (11.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11621 (26.4%)
Labour: 15541 (35.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 12176 (27.6%)
SNP: 4299 (9.8%)
Referendum: 425 (1%)
Majority: 3365 (7.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: Aberdeen South consists of the Southern part of Aberdeen itself and the more rural areas to the West of the city, including the middle class suburbs of Peterculter, Bieldside and Cults. There are also more working class areas included in the seat, such as the post-war estates in Torry, Kincorth and Nigg. The seat was won by Labour in 1997, having had the distinction of being the only seat that Labour lost in the 1992 election. The Conservatives have since fallen into third place and it is now a prime Liberal Democrat target.
Current MP: Anne Begg(Labour) born 1955. Educated at Brechin High School and University of Aberdeen. Worked as a history and English teacher prior to being elected, winning Disabled Scot of the Year award in 1988. First elected as MP for Aberdeen South in 1997. Begg was born with Gaucher Disease and is the first full time wheelchair user to be elected to the Commons. When first elected she was keen not to be seen solely as a disabled MP and tended to avoid disability issues, but has more recently spoken out more on disability issues. Her main interests are social justice and pensions. Voted for a rebel amendment against the war in Iraq (more information at They work for you)
Amanda Harvie (Conservative) Anne Begg(Labour) born 1955. Educated at Brechin High School and University of Aberdeen. Worked as a history and English teacher prior to being elected, winning Disabled Scot of the Year award in 1988. First elected as MP for Aberdeen South in 1997. Begg was born with Gaucher Disease and is the first full time wheelchair user to be elected to the Commons. When first elected she was keen not to be seen solely as a disabled MP and tended to avoid disability issues, but has more recently spoken out more on disability issues. Her main interests are social justice and pensions. Voted for a rebel amendment against the war in Iraq (more information at They work for you)
John Sleigh (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Glasgow University. Assistant to Nicol Stephen MSP 
Mark McDonald (SNP) born Inverurie. Educated at Dyce Academy and Dundee University. Deputy group leader on Aberdeen council.
Rhonda Reekie (Green)
Susan Ross (BNP) Trained counsellor, working in the health sector.Robert Green (Scotland Against Crooked Lawyers)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89808
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 19.7%
Over 60: 20.3%
Born outside UK: 7.6%
White: 97.3%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.9%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 1%
Christian: 53.2%
Muslim: 0.7%
Graduates 16-74: 31.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.9%
Owner-Occupied: 68%
Social Housing: 18.9% (Council: 15.8%, Housing Ass.: 3.2%)
Privately Rented: 10.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.1%
My analysis matches Dean’s: don’t underestimate the effect of an anti-Labour tactical vote or the depth of local hostility for the Liberals coming on the back of the Aberdeen City Council debacle; folk have long memories round here. There’s no appetite for the SNP; hence my analysis that many voters will plum for the candidate most likely to beat Labour here and that is the Conservative! Labour have no local organisation to speak of; the Liberals are in a state of blind panic; the SNP are not really in the running. The local Tories seem to have their act together and are making a serious effort to connect with the Aberdeen South voters. And the Scottish opinion polls consistently show the Tories creeping up into the low 20s. It all adds up to a potential upset!
Again, for the Conservatives to win here it would require them doubling their share of the vote.
This outcome, while possible, is very unlikely in the space of one election. I think they will come in a very comfortable 2nd place but Labour will still hold here.
The Tories will find it very hard to persuade voters that they & not the LDs are the main challengers to Labour here. And therein lies part of their problem. Some Tory supporters I fear are indulging in wishful thinking – though most seem realistic enough.
With the recovery of Labour support in Scotland at the expense of the SNP I suspect very few seats indeed will change hands in Scotland come May.
What Labour recovery?
Labour are still doing dramatically worse than the last election.
Ipsos MORI’s quarterly poll of Scottish opinion of March 1st 2010. Their voting intention figures were:
Westminster: CON 17%(+2), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 12%(nc), SNP 32%(-2)
Holyrood constituency: CON 14%(+2), LAB 29%(-3), LDEM 15%(+3), SNP 36%(nc), Grn 3%(nc)
Any outcome other than a Labour victory will surprise me.
Aberdeen has decided to count on the night.
Labour: 14000
Conservative: 10000
Liberal Democrat: 9000
SNP: 7000
Other: 1000
Majority: 4000
@Andy JS
I thought the law had been changed to force all counts to be done on the night? Am I wrong about that?
The law doesn’t say that, Dean. It requests that Returning Officers should count within 6 hours of polls closing but they don’t have to, and in any case the law hasnt been passed throught the Lords yet….
I thought it was 4 hours
For this seat Betfair.com has Labour at Evens and the Lib Dems at 13/10. The Tories are 6/1 and the SNP 13/1.
That is what i think everyone would call a two horse race.
I have also seen the prices for this seat on betting websites and, unsurprisingly, they only recognise the national picture and take no account of local factors.
In this seat the massive local factor is the council cuts under the watch of the Lib Dem administration and due to this I think they have damaged their chances of winning this seat irrepairably, at least this time around.
On a personal note, I certainly wouldn’t waste my money betting on the Lib Dems at 13/10.
I agree with Neil, a Labour victory seems likely here.
The Lib Dems are 11/5 but the MP didn’t have to pay any money back.
I see a slight swing towards the Lib Dems, but a Labour hold
@ ANDREWMCKAY
If there was a slight swing to the Lib Dems then Labour would lose this seat as it is very marginal.
However, this is not going to happen as the former Lib Dem voters here will not be votig for them this time around due to the Council situation.
The intereesting thing to watch in this seat is which party those former LDs are going to go. I suspect mostly to the Conservatives, but not enough for them to win the seat.
I have heard a rumour that the Conservative candidate, Mark Jones, has pulled out of the race here?
Can any of our Conservative posters shed any light on this?
MikeD – that’s also what Jeff at SNP Tactical Voting says. Pulled out for personal reasons, it seems.
The Press and Journal (North East paper) has the story http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1668686?UserKey=
Confirmed that Mark Jones has pulled out , health problems with his mother .
That is truly unfortunate – but there are many seats and many elections. We each have only one mother. He has my sympathy – and his mother has my prayers.
I am sure that Mark will be back as a candidate – perhaps for Holyrood next year ?
I wonder how the BNP candidate can blend her views with a role as a counsellor within the NHS?
The new Conservative candidate is Amanda Harvie, CE of Scottish Financial Enterprise
I am sorry to hear that & hope that his mother recovers if possible. Bad luck to Mark Jones.
This is a seat which will define Scotland….if Labour wins again then there’s no hope for any other party…the stories about Mickey Mouse in a red roseette winning will run true!!
Returning Officers should be permitted to start the reconciliation and count at 9.00 AM on the Friday.
At the 1999 Assembly Elections in Wales that was done. Everyone was fresh and it was a better atmosphere.
The Labour MP here is well respected, though.
I will also be standing again in Aberdeen south for Scottish Green Party !!
Lab Hold= 2,000 majority.
LD may just retain 2nd over the Tories
I’ve done a lot of door knocking in Aberdeen South. I’ve got to say that the Labour vote is softer than the LibDem.
LAB 5,000
Anne Begg is certainly respected in the local area, and like many incumbants should manage to reduce the swing against. Again, the Lib Dems will probably see their vote reduce slightly, probably with votes going evenly back to Labour and to the Tories. LAB HOLD and majority of 2000. The question is, I think who will the majority be over? LibDem or Tory?
I think Neil’s comments about Mickey Mouse in a red rosette are a bit unfortunate.
I think that Begg will hold with an increased majority, possibly even up to 3-4000, due to a collapse of the Lib Dem vote without a big enough upsurge in the Conservative vote to challenge her.
I’ll guess
Labour 16000
SCUP 10500
LD 9500
SNP 7100
BNP 800
Think the Lib Dems will suffer because of the debacle with the council across Aberdeen.
Tories now will only manage at best a token effort, most the pledges built up by Mark Jones will move back to the LibDems. Shame.
I think the most likely outcome is Anne Begg holding the seat with a slightly increased majority. I expect the Conservatives to move into second place with the Lib Dems slipping to third.
The canvassing in Aberdeen South, shows Labours national position in the polls, faltters to deceive! One wonders what sort of questions the pollsters ask too get such a strong Labour showing?
Labour
Libdem
Conservative
SNP
Majority – 2000
Lab hold maj 2000
Is UKIP running a candidate here? You would think a UKIP candidate would do well here. Considering all the retired ex-pat oil workers living in the area, who’s thinking tends to be further to right than modern Tory ideas.
Lab Hold
Maj 1300
Could be a majority of hundreds – very likely to LibDems. The Iraq War and mishandling of the banking crisis by Labour still hurt.
I havn’t voted in years, but I will this time to get rid of Anne Begg.
But Rob,
The Iraq war was surely more of an issue at the last election, in 2005? I cant see the issue hurting Labour more now, then it did then when Tony Blair was still their leader.
Waiting to see the full list. Robert Green has managed, against all the odds, to get his nomination in – SACL candidate.
Wondering why Robert Green is still not listed. The Scotsman has an article saying that he has made history as it is the first time anyone has run for Parliament who is not allowed in his constituency to canvas votes!
From Press & Journal today: “Another contender, Robert Green, is prevented from campaigning on doorsteps because of a bail condition banning him from entering the north-east. The 64-year-old is acting as legal adviser to the family of a disabled woman who claims she was abused by a paedophile ring as a child and will contest the seat for Scotland Against Crooked Lawyers.”
The Scotsman:
“General Election 2010: Wannabe MP who’s banned from Scottish seat he wants to represent
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Published Date: 21 April 2010
By David Leask
HE is banned from visiting Aberdeen but he wants to represent the city as an MP.
Robert Green has made what he believes to be legal history by becoming the first person to stand for election in a constituency he is prohibited from entering.
The 64-year-old was yesterday officially registered as a candidate for Aberdeen South,
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having convinced ten locals to sign his nomination papers.
A self-styled “investigator” and campaigner, Mr Green is banned from the city under bail conditions imposed after he was charged with a breach of the peace earlier this year. He had been about to name some of the most influential men in the north-east of Scotland as paedophiles. Mr Green is standing as a candidate for Scotland Against Crooked Lawyers, a campaign group, and is acting as his own election agent.
“I understand that my candidacy has set legal precedent,” Mr Green told The Scotsman yesterday. “I think the fact that I have finally – and against all odds – become a candidate is a minor victory for democracy.”
Mr Green, based in Warrington, has several problems, however. Apart from being barred from the constituency, he is also understood to be prohibited by bail conditions from repeating allegations he has made on the internet against a number of prominent individuals in the north-east. Moreover, an Aberdeen sheriff has successfully secured an interdict preventing Mr Green from repeating allegations against him.
Mr Green, as recently as last week, appeared in private at Stonehaven Sheriff Court accused of breaching one of his bail conditions.
He yesterday claimed to have been brought to Scotland in handcuffs and forced to spend a night in police cells.
Mr Green describes himself as the “lay legal adviser” of Anne Greig, the mother of a 30-year-old woman named Hollie Greig who has made a series of allegations of rape and abuse against what she calls a paedophile ring in Aberdeen.
Police have completed a second investigation into the allegations. However, the Crown Office said earlier this year that there was not enough reliable evidence for a prosecution.
The Greigs have been campaigning for a full-scale prosecution since 2000.
Mr Green has been backing them since at least last year. He and the Greigs have since repeated their allegations on several occasions, including in radio interviews broadcast in Spain and the United States.
Their campaign claims to have 25,000 supporters online, the so-called “Hollie’s Army”. It is not known how many of them live in Aberdeen South. The Greigs used to live there but now reside in England.
Scottish authorities, meanwhile, are understood to be keeping a close watch on a blog associated with Mr Green. The website gives the names and addresses of people Ms Greig has accused of being part of the paedophile ring. It also published the names of other children she claims were abused, and has claimed Mrs Greig’s brother Robert was murdered when he learned of the alleged crimes.”
1.Liberal Democrat
2.Labour
3.SNP
4.Conservative
5.BNP with more than 1500 votes,lot of support in Aberdeen
6.Greens with 700-500 votes, lib/dems will squeeze them
7.Robert Green, Interesting story. But less than a 100 votes
Labours support has been in freefall in its key heart lands, this is way I think the BNP vote could be higher than the scottish average. But having said that I’ve spotted BNP window posters on the North deeside road, so they have support thourghout the city (on a small scale).
The Green’s support is tied into a lot of Lib/Dem wavers, so I think there support will go down, as the Lib/Dems sense a victory.
So, Sid, you forecast a Sleigh bandwagon?
I am a friend of Rob Green’s and have kept in touch with him, vis-a-vis Hollie’s case and his candidacy for the Aberdeen South constituency.
Just saw this on the BBC website about the debate hustings to be held in Aberdeen South –
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/scotland/8637188.stm –
I know Rob can’t step foot in Aberdeen, but supporters may be able to attend and ask appropriate questions.
David