Aberdeen South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 8914 (20.71%)
Labour: 15722 (36.53%)
Liberal Democrat: 12216 (28.39%)
SNP: 5102 (11.86%)
BNP: 529 (1.23%)
Green: 413 (0.96%)
Others: 138 (0.32%)
Majority: 3506 (8.14%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 15272 (36.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 13924 (33.5%)
Conservative: 7134 (17.1%)
SNP: 4120 (9.9%)
Other: 1171 (2.8%)
Majority: 1348 (3.2%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 7098 (19.2%)
Labour: 14696 (39.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 10308 (27.9%)
SNP: 4293 (11.6%)
Other: 495 (1.3%)
Majority: 4388 (11.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11621 (26.4%)
Labour: 15541 (35.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 12176 (27.6%)
SNP: 4299 (9.8%)
Referendum: 425 (1%)
Majority: 3365 (7.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: Aberdeen South consists of the Southern part of Aberdeen itself and the more rural areas to the West of the city, including the middle class suburbs of Peterculter, Bieldside and Cults. There are also more working class areas included in the seat, such as the post-war estates in Torry, Kincorth and Nigg. The seat was won by Labour in 1997, having had the distinction of being the only seat that Labour lost in the 1992 election. The Conservatives have since fallen into third place and it is now a prime Liberal Democrat target.
Current MP: Anne Begg(Labour) born 1955. Educated at Brechin High School and University of Aberdeen. Worked as a history and English teacher prior to being elected, winning Disabled Scot of the Year award in 1988. First elected as MP for Aberdeen South in 1997. Begg was born with Gaucher Disease and is the first full time wheelchair user to be elected to the Commons. When first elected she was keen not to be seen solely as a disabled MP and tended to avoid disability issues, but has more recently spoken out more on disability issues. Her main interests are social justice and pensions. Voted for a rebel amendment against the war in Iraq (more information at They work for you)
Amanda Harvie (Conservative) Anne Begg(Labour) born 1955. Educated at Brechin High School and University of Aberdeen. Worked as a history and English teacher prior to being elected, winning Disabled Scot of the Year award in 1988. First elected as MP for Aberdeen South in 1997. Begg was born with Gaucher Disease and is the first full time wheelchair user to be elected to the Commons. When first elected she was keen not to be seen solely as a disabled MP and tended to avoid disability issues, but has more recently spoken out more on disability issues. Her main interests are social justice and pensions. Voted for a rebel amendment against the war in Iraq (more information at They work for you)
John Sleigh (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Glasgow University. Assistant to Nicol Stephen MSP 
Mark McDonald (SNP) born Inverurie. Educated at Dyce Academy and Dundee University. Deputy group leader on Aberdeen council.
Rhonda Reekie (Green)
Susan Ross (BNP) Trained counsellor, working in the health sector.Robert Green (Scotland Against Crooked Lawyers)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89808
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 19.7%
Over 60: 20.3%
Born outside UK: 7.6%
White: 97.3%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.9%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 1%
Christian: 53.2%
Muslim: 0.7%
Graduates 16-74: 31.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.9%
Owner-Occupied: 68%
Social Housing: 18.9% (Council: 15.8%, Housing Ass.: 3.2%)
Privately Rented: 10.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.1%
Lab maj 1,000
Although Scotland has a love affair with Lab and the SNP this could be one that gets away because of the Clegg effect north of the border for sure.
Robert Green is standing? Fantastic!
Lib Dem GAIN
LD’s may snatch this one or Lab will hold it with around the same majority.
This should be close but I would expect a narrow LD gain
Don’t be too sure on the Lib Dem gain here.
Clegg effect may well be negated by the Trump effect!
That’s Cooncil. This is Westminster. LibDems unstoppable.
LD GAIN
Though the bookmakers tend to see a LD gain here, I’m not convinced. I think this one is too close to call and feel that Lab may even hang on by a couple of hundred votes.
LD gain, maj – 1,000
well got that one wrong didn’t I – along with a few dozen other seats!
P.27: “I think that Begg could actually increase her majority to between 3-4000″
Result: 3506.
Your welcome
Aberdeen South and Kincardine as a Holyrood seat is more rural and, as a result, better for the SNP and the Lib Dems.
Part of this constituency is in the Holyrood seat Aberdeen Central which has had a minor boundary change – LD vote of 6,000, SNP vote of 6,800 and Labour vote of 7,100 – it’s all down to the Lib Dem vote collapsing to either the SNP or Labour IMO.
I thought the Conservatives would do better here, perhaps outpoll the Lib Dems.
In the Scottish context they have still done reasonably well coming within 3000 of the Lib Dems and achieving a swing from Lab to Con.
This seat is now a better Tory prospect than East Renfrewshire and almost better than Dumfries & Galloway.
I think the NE is the part of Scotland where the Tories have performed best, with Banff & Buchan being their best result.
Banff and Buchan was a good result for the tories, but the factors acting for them made it slightly less so – firstly, Salmond had built up a huge personal vote, some of which unwinded when Eilidh Whiteford took over this year. Also, the tory candidate was Jimmy Buchan, a fisherman from the popular (for a fishing show anyway!) Trawlermen programme, and the fishing community still has a major influence in that constituency. In East Renfrewshire and Dumfries and Galloway, in complete contrast, the Conservative vote collapsed completely, gifting big Labour majorities in areas which are traditionally Conservative. Certainly East Renfrewshire is demographically similar to a leafy suburb of London where the Tory majority should be around 10,000, and up to the 80s it was the safest Conservative seat in Scotland.
Calum – not quite true re E Renfs and D & G – In E Renfs the Cons share actually went up by 0.5%, but Labour went up by 6.9%. In D%G, the Conservatives fell by about 4%, Labour advanced by 4.8%, Cons fell by 3.7%
Aaah ok, an increase of 0% lol! They did gain in terms of share of the vote in Scotland, I accept that but a) by less than either the SNP or Labour and b) nowhere near as much as in England.
2011 Scotish Parliament elections predictions for Aberdeen seats:
Aberdeen Donside: Labour – Majority 3,000 – 4,000
Aberdeen Central: Labour – Majority 3,500 – 4,500
Aberdeen South and North Kincardine: Lib Dem: Majority 500 – 1,500
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/08_09_10_boundaryreport.pdf
We finally have something close to proper notional results courtesy of Professor David Denver.
Aberdeen South + Kincardine
Liberal Democrat 10,134 35.8
SNP 8,063 28.5
Labour 5,080 17.9
Conservative 5,040 17.8
Lib Dem Majority: 2,071 7.3
If Nicol Stephens stands down (as he is rumoured to be) this could well end up in the SNP column.
As it turns out Angus North and the Mearns is convincingly SNP over the tories with a majority of 4,916 (20.9%).
The chances of a Tory gain there appear to be much less than previously stated. Aberdeen Donside is still comfortably SNP but would certainly go in a convincing Labour victory SNP Majority: 3,551 13.1%. Labour have notionally lost Eastwood (Conservative Majority: 3,488 11.2%) and also Dumfriesshire (Conservative Majority: 649 2.1%) but gained Stirling (Labour Majority: 389 1.2%), Edinburgh East (Labour Majority: 545 1.8%) and also the closest predecessor to Govan, Glasgow Southside (Labour Majority: 27 0.1%). Interestingly enough, Aberdeen Central is notionally SNP but on 2007 it is very much a 3 way marginal (SNP 7,684 30.3% Labour 7,335 29.0% Liberal Democrat 6,824 26.9%) and the other changes are that Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale is notionally SNP from the Lib Dems (SNP Majority: 1,201 3.7%) while Edinburgh Central is Lib Dem (Lib Dem Majority: 719 2.5% over Labour). The net result, including the knock on to regional seats is SNP 46(-1 on ’07 boundaries) Lab 44(-2) Con 20(+3) Lib Dem 17 (+1) Green 1(-1) Independent 1. In summary, the boundary changes seem more proportional for the larger parties but somewhat unfair on the Greens, though we shall see how they work out in 2011.
Aberdeen South and Kincardine North 2011 prediction:
SNP 9000 (+1.5)
LD 8000 (-9)
Lab 7500 (+7)
Con 5500 (+0.5)
SNP gain, swing of 8% from LD to Labour.
Lib Dem incumbent in Scottish Parliament has stood down. Three way marginal?
(I am a Labour supporter I just don’t know how to show my rose!))
That seems like a reasonable assumption given that Nicol Stephen was leader in 2007, Labour held Aberdeen South in the GE and the Scottish Lib Dems look like struggling in 2011. And there should be a link on the word here when looking at this message at the bottom of the page -Logged in as … (edit your profile here) I think you can change your background from there.
As is the case in so many Labour/LD marginals in Scotland at the moment, I wonder how many of the LD votes in this constituency did in fact come from Tories, attempting to unseat the Labour incumbent?
Also, I wonder which way these tactical voters will vote now, considering the LDs are drastically waning in popularity at present, particularly in Scotland?
Tricky to predict this one like CalumW said it’s probably a three way marginal, maybe the conservatives good get into contention for the 2015 election?
Aberdeen South and Kincardine North 2011 prediction:
LD 8500
SNP 8500
Lab 8100
Con 6500
Yes the boundary changes look huge geographically, with the acerage of the boundaries increasing several times but this is the lions share of Aberdeen South with just a single ward of Aberdeenshire.
Indeed. The results for the 2007 holyrood election in Aberdeen South and the notionals for the new seat are very similar, and as i’ve said with Nicol Stephen standing down it has the look of a 3 way marginal given a straight Labour to Lib Dem swing would allow an SNP gain. There is also a tory vote in the constituency, which may increase if tactical LD voting unwinds, but this is not a seat in which they could win in 2011.
Aberdeen South and Kincardine North 2011
A scenario as opposed to a prediction:
SNP 9500
Lab 9100
Con 6900
LD 6100
Lib Dem vote could collapse here resulting is a tight SNP / Lab contest where the addition of the North Kincardine Ward could ultimately keep Labour out.
The Lib Dems were never strong here before Nicol Stephen, so I suspect his retirement would be decisive, in the same way that Simon Hughes retirement will be in his natural Labour seat.
John Sleigh (2010 GE candidate) is the new LD candidate for Holyrood 2011.
Maureen Watt MSP is the SNP candidate. The Tory candidate is Stewart Whyte (2001 candidate in Aberdeen Central, 2003 Banff and Buchan; 2005 Aberdeen South, 2007 West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, 2010 Aberdeen North). Labour candidate is Greg Williams (2010 GE West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine)
You’ve got to admire Stewart Whyte’s persistance – this will be 7th unsuccessful attempt to get elected.
The Lib Dems could find a Yes to AV gets wrecked by blanket coverage of the Royal Wedding.
So 9%
and no PR?
“The Lib Dems could find a Yes to AV gets wrecked by blanket coverage of the Royal Wedding.
So 9%
and no PR?”
Yes or No to AV and there’s still no PR either way.
My understanding of AV is that it could result in the Tories losing Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweddale.
So half a million Scottish Tories would go from 1 of 59 seats to zero. Is AV really PR?
Under STV on Glasgow the Tories still polled more votes than the Greens and ended up with a single councillor while the Greens had several in the city.
This was due to the Tory vote being more spread out while the Green vote was concentrated in middle class wards (albiet amoung radical lefty middle classes). Don’t think STV is PR either.
Perhaps the closest system that is PR is the system used for the Scottish Parliament.
If Glasgow City Council had say 45 councillors elected in single member wards and then a further 30 or so elected from area lists the Tories would surely have 6 seats or so.
I wonder if detatching the Unitary Authority elections from the Scottish parliament elections will have an impact?
This will be the first time since 1995 that there will have been a proper local election in Scotland not overshadowed by a national contest.
I imagine it would be detrimental to the SNP but benefit the independents.
Perhaps the Lib Dems would do better in places like Inverclyde due to the lower turnout, and the Tories do better against the SNP in Stirling.
Its possible that the lower turnout and the absence of the Holyrood poll could help the Conservatives take the 3/ 4th seats from the Lib Dems in Glasgow wards like Langside, Newlands, Hillhead, Linn, Maryhill/ Kelvin (covering Kelvindale) ect. They were not far off in 2007.
Looking back at this thread Falkbairn’s prediction for the GE years ago he was spot on.
It does feel that there could be a sharp fall in the LD vote in Aberdeen South and North Kincardine next year for a multitude of reasons but how sharp?
Very sharp I’d imagine – loss of Nicol Stephen’s incumbancy bonus, recovery of the Labour party from a low last time round and a high SNP vote means that there really is very little reason for folk here to vote Lib Dem.
AV is demonstrably NOT PR – it’s not fair but the Tories wouldn’t stand for fair. We’ll have to settle for fair-er.
STV is broadly proportional if set up properly but the Scottish example only uses 3-member wards. Larger wards would allow for better proportionality and tend to avoid the situation that occurred in Glasgow, with the proviso that parties which are controversial and actively DISliked by large sections of the population (like the BNP and to a lesser extent the Tories) can sometimes suffer under preferential systems as they find it difficut to attract transfers from people who are not their core supporters. Also, AV and STV, because they do not use party lists, can have their proportionality distorted by personal votes for or against individual candidates. Both of these factors bring many advantages as well as disadvantages but they do mean the result can be skewed from pure proportionality.
By far the biggest element in Scotland though is the small size of the wards.
Having the council elections on their own may allow more Greens, Tories and Lib Dems to succeed as the contest will not be dominated so much by the Labour/SNP battle at Holyrood. It may also mean results will be more variable as local factors will get more of a look-in
Benjamin
Scotland does not only use 3 member wards. I am a (Labour) councillor in a 4-member ward in Aberdeen. Rural councils mostly have 4s. This seat like almost all others is moving towards 2-party competition between Labour and SNP. Everyone can dream but there is no polling evidence to suggest that more Greens, Tories or Lib Dems will be elected at the forthcoming local elections. The only slight proviso there is that organisational splits such as the one which has already taken place on Aberdeenshire Council will allow a little Green space and accelerate the decline already precipitate of the Lib Dems.
BTW
If my comments seem harsh, Rhonda Reekie above is a friend of mine
Barney,
Two of the Tories in Aberdeen are listed as ‘Scottish Conservative’ and the other two are ‘Aberdeen Conservatives’. Are the latter Independent Conservatives or do Conservatives in Aberdeen have different identities in each ward?
Dalek
Truth is stranger than fiction. They are warring groups who take all their conflicts to council. However they re all recognised as Conservatives by the Scottish Party and told to get on. We Labourites do find that bit surprising! There is on-going a diverting row about whether one called the council leader a faggot or a fat git.
It is a great shame because the city needs a strong Conservative group IMO
The lib dems do deserve credit for introducing STV for local gov in Scotland however they probably should have done the same in England instead of the AV ref.
with regards to Barney I wou;d have thought the greens are exploiting the trump issue.
A Brown
I don’t agree on stv. I think it has been a disaster for local government in Scotland with very few decisions getting made and a clear decline in leadership. However it is a matter of opinion which voting system is desired
The Greens are campaigning on the issue of Trump and it just might be enough to gain a list seat in the forthcoming parliamentary election but not likely. First on the list is a defecting councillor from the Lib Dems. It is also unlikely that even incumbants standing as greens will be elected to Aberdeenshre Council. Since re-organisation in 1996, Labour have never had a councillor electe. I think this is the only council in Scotland in which this is the case. And Labour unfortunately did not come close last time
Glasgow has 79 councillors elected in three and four member STV wards.
I think that 50 directly elected single wards with 30 additional members would work far better than STV.
Tories have one seat and the Lib Dems and Greens several because the Tories fail to get pick up successive preference votes, whereas the Lib Dems and the Greens do.
Interesting that you’re against STV, Barney, your Edinburgh counterpart , Andrew Burns supports it.
My main worry about holding local elections next year is a low turnout and that it could benefit the SNP.
A Brown
We all have our own ideas!
The low turnout will be a big concern. Not quite so much in Aberdeen perhaps as the SNP are unpopular incumbants
Dalek
Changing patterns in transfers will be of great interest. The toier may get some more from Lib Dems but the big losers will be Lib Dems who will no longer be everyone’s second choice. The bigger feature may be though that last time all the parties in all areas wxcept Labour in Glasgow stood too few candidates especially the SNP. This will change next time
In Glasgow the reason why the Lib Dems beat the Conservatives in Langside, Hillhead, Partick West, Linn Park, Newlands, Maryhill Kelvin (with Kelvindale and Kelvinside) is because they may have picked up second preference votes.
The Liberals could lose some of their seats to the Tories (they are the 3rd / 4th seat in the ward), due to no longer picking up second preferance votes.
I could see the Greens benefiting, and in wards like Langside, Newlands and Linn Park, the Greens could take the 4th seat in the ward that the Conservatives would be seeking to take from the Lib Dems.
STV did lead to a lot of coalitions of the losers i.e. Angus, Fife, East Dunbartonshire, West Lothian, West Dunbartonshire, where third parties felt they could squeeze more out of a weaker partner.
Or alternatively, where the largest parties were unable or unwilling to adjust to coalition politics while second-place parties were more accommodating. There has always been a thread running through left-wing politics that equates “leadership” with dictatorship; compromise takes some getting used to.
I didn’t realise there were quite so many 4-member wards but in any case, 4 should be the mimimum, not the maximum. It was a deliberate tactic when they were introduced, but one which ought to be remedied.
My above comment was not predicting an absolute rise in success for non-Labour/SNP parties but comparing the likely results in the 2012 Scottish locals to how the results might look if they coincided with the Scottish Parliament elections again – having the locals seperately will likely be good for smaller parties and reflect local situations more because the campaigns will be less submerged by the holyrood election.
I think that is right to some extent.
The Tories won wards like Kelvindale and Kelvinside in 1988 and 1992 when they had no base left in the area at general elections at that time.
In 1999 we saw the SNP come so close in many Glasgow wards, being pushed back by the rise in the SSP in 2003 and then polling strongly again in 2007.
These results were consistent with the Holyrood elections, and may not have been as determined by local government issues in Glasgow – as per 1988 and 1992 (1995 was different because there was a strong reaction against the then government at the time).
I think that their could be significant changes in some of the Glasgow wards.