Aberdeen South
2010 Results:
Conservative: 8914 (20.71%)
Labour: 15722 (36.53%)
Liberal Democrat: 12216 (28.39%)
SNP: 5102 (11.86%)
BNP: 529 (1.23%)
Green: 413 (0.96%)
Others: 138 (0.32%)
Majority: 3506 (8.14%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 15272 (36.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 13924 (33.5%)
Conservative: 7134 (17.1%)
SNP: 4120 (9.9%)
Other: 1171 (2.8%)
Majority: 1348 (3.2%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 7098 (19.2%)
Labour: 14696 (39.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 10308 (27.9%)
SNP: 4293 (11.6%)
Other: 495 (1.3%)
Majority: 4388 (11.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 11621 (26.4%)
Labour: 15541 (35.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 12176 (27.6%)
SNP: 4299 (9.8%)
Referendum: 425 (1%)
Majority: 3365 (7.6%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: Aberdeen South consists of the Southern part of Aberdeen itself and the more rural areas to the West of the city, including the middle class suburbs of Peterculter, Bieldside and Cults. There are also more working class areas included in the seat, such as the post-war estates in Torry, Kincorth and Nigg. The seat was won by Labour in 1997, having had the distinction of being the only seat that Labour lost in the 1992 election. The Conservatives have since fallen into third place and it is now a prime Liberal Democrat target.
Current MP: Anne Begg(Labour) born 1955. Educated at Brechin High School and University of Aberdeen. Worked as a history and English teacher prior to being elected, winning Disabled Scot of the Year award in 1988. First elected as MP for Aberdeen South in 1997. Begg was born with Gaucher Disease and is the first full time wheelchair user to be elected to the Commons. When first elected she was keen not to be seen solely as a disabled MP and tended to avoid disability issues, but has more recently spoken out more on disability issues. Her main interests are social justice and pensions. Voted for a rebel amendment against the war in Iraq (more information at They work for you)
Amanda Harvie (Conservative) Anne Begg(Labour) born 1955. Educated at Brechin High School and University of Aberdeen. Worked as a history and English teacher prior to being elected, winning Disabled Scot of the Year award in 1988. First elected as MP for Aberdeen South in 1997. Begg was born with Gaucher Disease and is the first full time wheelchair user to be elected to the Commons. When first elected she was keen not to be seen solely as a disabled MP and tended to avoid disability issues, but has more recently spoken out more on disability issues. Her main interests are social justice and pensions. Voted for a rebel amendment against the war in Iraq (more information at They work for you)
John Sleigh (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Glasgow University. Assistant to Nicol Stephen MSP 
Mark McDonald (SNP) born Inverurie. Educated at Dyce Academy and Dundee University. Deputy group leader on Aberdeen council.
Rhonda Reekie (Green)
Susan Ross (BNP) Trained counsellor, working in the health sector.Robert Green (Scotland Against Crooked Lawyers)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89808
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 19.7%
Over 60: 20.3%
Born outside UK: 7.6%
White: 97.3%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.9%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 1%
Christian: 53.2%
Muslim: 0.7%
Graduates 16-74: 31.1%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.9%
Owner-Occupied: 68%
Social Housing: 18.9% (Council: 15.8%, Housing Ass.: 3.2%)
Privately Rented: 10.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.1%
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Probably a lib dem gain. Their share of the vote will probably fall, but labour’s will be hurt more, handing the seat to the LibDems.
I thought that this was going to go Lib Dem in 2005 and was a little surprised that it didn’t. Of course, the Scottish Parliament seat has a strong Lib Dem majority and there is a large Tory vote to squeeze in this area-presuming that the Conservatives do not make an unlikely comeback here.
I am also predicting a Lib Dem gain next time, but would not be surprised if I was wrong again on this one.
At first sight, the addition of much of Aberdeen Central in 2005 should have helped Labour but the part of that seat it absorbed was very similar to and had been part of this seat until 1997.
The re-aquired Queens Cross ward for example has a Conservative councillor.
This is a seat that the Tory vote should rise; a dramatic rise could see a Conservative MP, a modest rise would determine whether the seat has a Labour or Liberal MP (dependent on whose vote is softer to the Tories).
“This is a seat that the Tory vote should rise; a dramatic rise could see a Conservative MP, a modest rise would determine whether the seat has a Labour or Liberal MP (dependent on whose vote is softer to the Tories). ”
My thoughts exactly. I expect that the Labour would be more strongly hit, as they’re in power (so we’re getting bored of them) and the seat would have been a Con/Lab marginal in the late ’80s and early ’90s
Dear oh dear – I take it the Peter Crerar is a former Tory councillor in Kingston upon Thames. I would have thought he had better things to do than trolling around predicting Tory gains in impossible seats.
No chance of a Tory gain here, Queen’s Cross or no Queen’s Cross.
This of course is Gerry Malone’s (and Hugh Sproat’s) old seat – but one that the Tories have been out of contention for 15 years now.
Should be a Lib Dem pick up – provided they can be a little more focussed than last time.
Indeed ‘The Peter Crerar’ was indeed once a member of that authority, being elected on the night that the ‘Dan says’ lost his seat in Canbury Ward.
The ‘Peter Crerar’ has been elected to another local authority since. Wonder if Richmond Park will be an ‘impossible seat’?
When the Tories only had a majority of 21 seats, this was won quite easily by Raymond Robertson. There were probably about 30 seats more marginal than this for the Tories in 1992.
Peter – It really isn’t very credible to suggest the Tories may pick up a seat which:
1. Is 184th (!) on their target list;
2. Is close between the top two and will see resources going in; and
3. Is in a part of the country polling evidence suggests has been particularly impervious to Cameroon charm.
It undermines the credibility of your other predictions if you start getting outlandish with this sort of thing, I think.
I’m not sure it is impossible for the Tories actually, but I don’t know this area well so I’m going on figures only. The Lib Dems will almost certainly go for “Decapitation Strategy”, but, as elsewhere, it is likely some voters who may feel tempted by the Lib Dems will back Labour or switch to Labour, because of the Tory threat nationally [if not here]. The Labour/Lib Dem battle is what will overwhelm it, rather than it being actually impossible for the Tories. It could be, however, that the Lib Dems suffer a major squeeze in the run up to the election which will change the nature of the contest still further, and then anything can happen.
I think the electors of Aberdeen South – an area I know – are highly unlikely to vote Labour to beat the Tories!
Most Scots – and certainly those outside Edinburgh and the south – know the Tories haven’t the ghost of a chance.
It is surprising that the SNP have had so little impact in Aberdeen itself, given their strength elsewhere in NE and the Highlands.
So Peter Crerar is a Tory Councillor! That explains some of his outlandish comments.
Aberdeen South looked lost for the Tories forever after 1987, returning a Labour MP in a Conservative landslide.
At the 1997 election, despite a Labour landslide, the seat remained a three way marginal.
It was the 2001 election which was a real set back for the Conservatives in this seat, who lost more ground to Labour than the Lib Dems.
Never suggested that this was a certain Conservative gain, only pointed out that with the Conservatives being 19.6% behind, a swing of less than 10% (provided the Lib Dem vote also falls) would deliver a Tory MP.
Was any body to suggest Labour would gain Hove, Hastings & Rye, Harrow West, Enfield Southgate, Eastwood (now East Renfreshire), Shipley, Wimbledon, Bristol West, Thanet South ect ect….
People would say that person was making ‘outlandish’ predictions.
Irrespective if this seat remains Labour but the third placed Tories should close the gap.
Very good reason to believe that ‘Dan Says:’ is a Liberal Democrat activist and former council candidate in Kingston Upon Thames by the name of Dan Fatchnikov.
I live in aberdeen south and i can say that people are forgetting one thing about the constituency and that is the MP herself who has an exceptional profile within the constituency and is seen as both hard working and effective.
we also must remember that there is a massive issue in the area with the new proposed bypass which has been approved by the lib dem council as well as lib dem transport minister and is proposing to knock down lib dem supporting houses.
prediction for the seat is a labour hold
Iain Sproat, not Hugh Sproat.
This seat obviously won’t be Tory again for the forseeable future.
Although I do think the LDs will win most of their top targets from Labour, I’m not too sure about this one.
I find it odd however that most of the party political tension on this site is between Tories and LDs. With a hung parliament looming, you’d think they’d be more friendly to eachother.
There are a few people round here making some ‘outlandish’ predictions, by which I mean predicting what they want to happen, rather than what will, but In a way I find that quite endearing.
There are two in particular who do it, but since it’s in no sense misleading, it can be helpful.
After all if one of then concedes even he doesn’t think the Tories will win a particular seat, that says something.
While if the other sys even he doesn’t think Labour can hold a particular seat, that says something.
These two sit on the very boundaries of political reality, helping the rest of us to see where they are.
Good to have both of them with us.
Peter Crerar suggests that if there is a swing of 10% from Lab to Tory AND the LD vote declines the Tories could win.
True Peter, but if it happens the Pope is not a Catholic.
The unlkeable Sproat assisted the Tory decline in NE Scotland, as did the sad death of Alick Buchanan-Smith. Your party are out for the duration here, Peter – though in this particular seat there will always be a hard-core Tory vote.
If Begg has done well, this could be crucial.
I would need more local info before taking a view, and hope to post on this shortly.
Not suggesting this will be a Tory win, but it would appear that any third party squeeze already happened in 2005 on the new boundaries.
Worth noting that Tories “won” the old Aberdeen South in the 2004 European elections – unlike the other two Aberdeen seats where they came fourth behind LDs in third.
I would expect to see Tories move into second place behind Nicol Stephen in Holyrood Aberdeen South seat in May. Quite how that -and result in Aberdeen Central – pans out could have an impact on LD prospects for unseating Anne Begg in 2009/10. If they fail to take it then, it may revert to being a Lab/Con marginal at the election after.
Queens Cross is a naturally Tory area, and the LDs will not find it easy to squeeze.
There are 3 factors here, I reckon -
1 Begg is said to be popular, and could have a growing incumbency vote.
2 Much will depend on the LDs success in getting oout the substantial student vote
3 What is left of the SNP vote may be open to further attack, depending on how they and the LDs fare in Aberdeen generally in May.
Conclusion – much too close to call.
During the ’92 election Raymond Robertson won it for the Tories – that took a hell of a lot of work – I know I was there! – and unless the Tories are prepared to literally bust a gut in campaigning and canvassing, they will not come within a mile of regaining the seat. As a former constituent of Aberdeen S, it was apparent to me that the electorate are open to an argument, and a lot will be achieved by the candidate who is most visible to the electorate. In addition- they are NOT
Sorry – technical hitch there!!
The constituency as a whole is NOT keen on negative campaigning as Labours’ Frank Doran found to his cost in 1992.
Overall I think it may be more open than some suggest, but Anne Begg must have the wind behind her (despite her partys’ unpopularity) as she has been an effective and, within Aberdeen, reasonably high profile constituency MP.
In Aberdeen as a whole, I believe the SNP are a busted flush – they have been found out by Aberdonians for the one issue protest party that they are. One can only hope that the Grampian hinterland will also soon see through them!
I have a new game, if I can be bothered… read through all these boards just to find Peter Crerar’s most outlandish prediction for a Conservative win/ Lib Dem Vote collapse
Nicol Stephen and the LibDems have received some very bad publicity recently on the subject on the Aberdeen by-pass which will carve its way through this constituency. Coverage on Newsnight Scotland a few night ago. Stephen, then the Transport Minister, is felt to have badly let down the locals, by allowing them to be misled about the various options. His successor, also a LibDem, has not done much to improve matters.
He has a very substantial majority here – will be interesting to see if it gets hit – and, if so – who it goes to. Conservatives were strong here in the past although the NE is a heartland of the SNP who have their eyes on the adjoining Labour Holyrood seat of Aberdeen Central.
Any predictions here then?
Stephens majority was cut from around 8000 over Labour to under 3000 over the SNP.
The loss of ground in their holyrood held seat will make taking the Westminster seat from Labour harder, as they not only seem to be losing ground to the Tories but also the SNP.
Almost exclusively to the SNP, Peter. The Conservative vote was up a fraction of a percent in fourth while the SNP vote was up substantially.
Rather depends on how the tactical vote goes for a General Election doesn’t it? The Lib Dems will have been disappointed with their own result in this constituency (which is a bit different at MSP/MP levels) but encouraged to see Labour do badly… and the result will certainly be the top two positions occupied by Labour and the Lib Dems in either order.
I rather doubt anything other than a Labour win here.
It seems there are two likely things.
The Labour party will be doing generally better than in 2007 which is likely to be a low point,
or the SNP will remain strong if they can make a reasonable fist of it in Scottish Government, so although they won’t win this seat in the UK General Election, they will do well enough to prevent the Lib Dems taking off.
I think that the Conservatives will gain ground here but will not peak 22%.
I would love to see a Conservative MP here after the next election but feel there isn’t quite enough ground to build on already.
This is a suburban seat and like seats such as Carshalton and Wallington it was a former Conservative heartland however there has been a much greater Conservative revivial there than here (here it has done the total opposite).
I think that a Liberal-Democrat gain is more than likely with Labour second and possibly a very respectable third.
Interestingly , the 1st preference votes in the council elections in the wards making up this parliamentary seat had Labour in 4th place :-
LibDem 11054 SNP 7184 Con 6743 Lab 5865 Others 2293
Jake (not registed) wrote:
“this constituency (which is a bit different at MSP/MP levels)”
June 5th, 2007 at 1:10 pm
Although the Westminster seat also contains parts of the Aberdeen Central Holyrood seat (including the old Queens Cross Ward) – the sum of these areas which vote very similarly to the the rest of the Aberdeen South – as the various notional results for 2001 indicated (seats like Edinburgh South and Inverness vary significantly between the Westminster and Holyrood permutations).
This was a close three way marginal on the 1992 (notional result) and 1997, it is possible that the result could be close between four parties in 2009/ 2010, if the SNP sustain their 2007 level of support, David Cameron appeals to the constituents and the level of Lib/ Lab vote remains relatively close. It could be possible for a party to win the seat with 26% of the vote, as with Inverness in 1992 of Tweeddale Ettric & Laudderdale in a number of recent contests.
I’m not terribly optimistic about this one from a Tory point of view. It would only be possible on the above scenario where all the 4 parties fragmented in the 20s.
Number 184. But it’s hard to see a fall in the Labour
vote of around 10-12%.
Frankly, if the Tories want more seats in Scotland, they
need to ruthlessly target the few where they have a chance,
and there were some glimmerings in May 2007.
A lib Dem Gain from Labour their first gain off Labour during the night the Tories. will tactically vote Lib dem in order to get labour Out.
The Lib Dem gain.
I think that’s probably rubbish. Labour will rally it’s core vote because of the likely closeness of the next General Election across Britain, and that process showed glimmerings of beginning even this May in some areas. The Lib Dems suffered a significant swing against them this May in the Scottish Parliament seat.
Clearly a lot of these posts have been written at a time when the LDs thought they could make further inroads into Labour. 2005 is likely to prove a high water mark.
Aberdeen South was a Lab/ Lib/ Con marginal prior to 2001.
Lib Dem’s have failed in 2001 and 2005 (against the predictions of professional commentators), when they have captured easier seats elsewhere.
2001 and 2005 were elections when their support was rising. Now they are in freefall in the opinion polls with Ming as their leader, I’m not convinced they would even retain second place.
With David Cameron’s popularity, why would the Tory vote collapse? There was no evidence of this at the recent Holyrood elections, despite a clear choice of at least two other parties who could win the seat.
I think Anne Begg will hold on for a few reasons. Firstly her popularity as a local MP ,she is well liked in Aberdeen south and is known as a commited campaigner for her constituents. Secondly the collapse of Lib Dem support nationally will affect their vote. I would also guess that the SNP will increase their vote slightly which will probably come from the Lib Dems. Currently I would predict Labour-37% Lib Dem 30% Conservative 21% SNP-13%
I will be frank. I love Scotland but haven’t been to Aberdeen. My brother says it’s a bit depressing with pubs without ladies toilets and dreary shops. This is probably very selective and unfair.
But I do think Falkirkbairn01′s prediction sounds a reasonable one. I think the SNP vote could be higher, particularly if they make a reasonable fist of running the Scottish Government.
I think Begg could increase her majority – but her vote will be down -
Labour 32 (-5%)
Lib Dem 24 (-10%)
Tory 22 (+5%)
SNP 20 (+10%)
FalkirkBairn01,
I agree 101% with your prediction in terms of order, but I think the figures will be closer than you suggest, with Labour in region of 30-35% and LD at 27-32%, but not above Labour.
Depending on timing of next election and Salmond’s performance as First Minister, the SNP share could be in region of 20%, with more drawn from LD than Labour. They might conceivably push Conservatives into fourth place, but only if combined Lab-LD share is below 60% – i.e. I think Tory share will be up from 17% to about 20-22%.
JJB,
In my experience, Aberdeen is actually one of the sunnier places in Scotland, and while colder, it has generally been brighter than at home during my visits. (Which probably means I shall now get soaked next week !)
It is also the case that hosting the North Sea oil industry makes the town less insular and more cosmopolitan. This may explain why it has been less fruitful for the SNP than the hinterland or neighbouring Dundee.
Paul
Anne Begg is a well-respected MP on all sides of the house, and if she loses this seat I doubt it will be any reflection on her. With the downturn of LibDem fortunes in the polls, her defeat is by no means certain.
I dont think Anne’s majority will fall that much I think it will either drop ,stay the same or rise with a variation of about 2%.
I’d go along with that, Falkirkbairn. My guess is that Anne Begg’s support will stay largely intact, but after the 11% swing from the LibDems to the SNP in the Holyrood Constituency in May, we might well see a re-alignment of the parties challenging her.
Labour hold.
As others have commented, Anne Begg is a popular constituency MP, and there was only a small drop in the Labour share of the vote in the Holyrood seat. This compares with a significant fall in the Liberal Democrat vote. Voters will know (or be made aware) that the seat is a Labour-LD marginal, and that practically rules the Nationalists and Tories out.
Anne Begg will increase here share of the vote by around 5%.
The switch from Lib Dem to SNP, which first occurred last May, will open the Labour majority further to nearly five figures.
OK, so let me get this straight:
Labour’s first Scotland-wide defeat since the 50s…
Plus a Brown Bounce that just hasn’t materialised in Scotland, thanks to the Salmond Effect…
Equals a 5% INCREASE for Anne Begg?!
Seriously?
Nah, not seriously. The man is a troll.
I think Ian Mackintosh is simply used to “politics as normal” – which, since the mid-1990s, was Labour coasting – and possibly youth and inexperience in looking at elections. I’d be fascinated to see what canvass returns he’d produce in a Windsor election
Troll alert?
I’d go with a Labour hold with this seat. Anne Begg seems to be a popular enough MP.
I do get concerned about some people being brashly accused of making “outlandish” predictions when they have not. Clearly there are some exceptions on this site!
When I wrote –
“This is a seat (Aberdeen South) that the Tory vote should rise; a dramatic rise could see a Conservative MP, a modest rise would determine whether the seat has a Labour or Liberal MP (dependent on whose vote is softer to the Tories). ”
I was greeted with the response -
“It undermines the credibility of your other predictions if you start getting outlandish with this sort of thing, I think.”
I clear used the word’s “a dramatic rise could see a Conservative MP”.
My view about Aberdeen South is that the Conservatives did relatively better here in 1997 than in 1987, or even 1992. I do stress relatively. In 1987, it was won by Labour against a large Conservative majority. In 1992, it was gained by the Tories against a national swing which produced a small Conservative majority.
In 1997, it remained at least marginal, when many other very marginal Conservative seats were being lost by five figures. Although there were boundary changes in 1997, they only transformed a close Con/ Lab marginal into a close Con/ Lab/ Lib marginal.
The Conservative vote fell from 26% here in 1997, to 20% in 1999 and has remained at that sort of level ever since.
The close three way 1997 result was down to the incumbancy effect of Raymond Robertson (A South 1992 – 1997) and Nicol Stephen (K & D 1991 – 1992) which largely also formed the post 1997 constituency AND NO LABOUR INCUMBANCY.
Raymond Roberson may still have had a done better here in 2001 than in Eastwood (now East Renfrewshire).
In 2001, the increase in Labours majority was down to the loss of the Tory/ LD incumbancy and the addition of the Labour incumbancy of Anne Begg.
While this seat relatively moved to the Tories between 1987 and 1997 it relatively swung to Labour quite dramatically in 2001.
Boundary changes here in 2005, made little impact on the political make up of the seat.
If the Lib Dems were to poll 14 – 16% nationally at the next general election, it is possible that they could fall from 2nd place here. I would not seriously expect the Lib Dems in practice to poll less than 18% nationally.
Were Anne Begg to retire, Labours chances of retaining this seat would be far less likely. In such circustances the Tories would be in with as strong a chance as the Lib Dems of taking the seat. Even the SNP (given the recent Holyrood poll) could win.
If Anne Begg retire, it could be hard to predict who will win.
As she is standing again, I think she will hold on by 1000 – 3000, but I’m not so sure about who would come second.
Aberdeen South Results 1997 – 2007
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Lab 35 28 40 19 37 18
Lib 28 33 28 46 34 36
Con 26 20 19 17 17 18
SNP 10 19 12 14 10 27
Vicki Harris’ profile has been removed from the list of PPCs in the http://www.libdems.org.uk , so I guess she was listed there by mistake. I think she was the Lib Dem candidate for Aberdeen South in the Holyrood election. The PPC for Westminster election is yet to be selected.
This seat will be Labour held, largely because all three of the other parties have some support (but not enough to win) but neither will any of their votes collapse, so the opposition to Labour will be fragmented.
RE Ed R
Nicol Stephen was the PPC in Aberdeen South in May.