West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
2010 Results:
Conservative: 13678 (30.26%)
Labour: 6159 (13.63%)
Liberal Democrat: 17362 (38.42%)
SNP: 7086 (15.68%)
BNP: 513 (1.14%)
UKIP: 397 (0.88%)
Majority: 3684 (8.16%)
2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 19285 (46.3%)
Conservative: 11814 (28.4%)
Labour: 5470 (13.1%)
SNP: 4700 (11.3%)
Other: 379 (0.9%)
Majority: 7471 (17.9%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 11686 (30.8%)
Labour: 4669 (12.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 16507 (43.5%)
SNP: 4634 (12.2%)
Other: 418 (1.1%)
Majority: 4821 (12.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15080 (34.9%)
Labour: 3923 (9.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 17742 (41.1%)
SNP: 5639 (13.1%)
Referendum: 805 (1.9%)
Majority: 2662 (6.2%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: An affluent rural seat dominated by the Liberal Democrat and Conservative parties. In the West the constituency stretches up the Cairngorm mountains and is largely unpopulated coutryside, dotted with villages and includes Balmoral Castle, the Royal family`s Summer retreat. The Eastern part of the constituency is home to many who commute into Aberdeen and the oil boom in Aberdeen has seen an expansion in the suburbs around historic towns such as Stonehaven and Inverbervie.
Current MP: Sir Robert Smith(Liberal Democrat) 3rd Baronet (his grandfather was Conservative MP for the same seat prior to the Second World War). Born 1958. Educated at Merchant Taylor`s School and the University of Aberdeen. Married with three children. Managed the family estate in Aberdeenshire before his election in 1997. A former member of the SDP prior to the Liberal/SDP merger, he contested Aberdeen South for the SDP in 1987. He was Liberal Democrat Deputy Chief whip between 2001 and 2006. Lib Dem shadow deputy leader of the Commons since 2008. Backed Sir Menzies Campbell in the 2006 leadership race (more information at They work for you)
Alex Johnstone (Conservative) born 1961, Kincardineshire. Educated at Mackie Academy. Former diary farmer. MSP for North East Scotland since 1999. Conservative chief whip in the Scottish Parliament 2001-2003, rural development spokesman from 2003. Contested Gordon 1999 Scottish Parliament elections, Angus 2003 Scottish Parliament elections, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine 2005.
Greg Williams (Labour) Born 1984. Educated at Oxford University. Works in the oil indsutry.Sir Robert Smith(Liberal Democrat) 3rd Baronet (his grandfather was Conservative MP for the same seat prior to the Second World War). Born 1958. Educated at Merchant Taylor`s School and the University of Aberdeen. Married with three children. Managed the family estate in Aberdeenshire before his election in 1997. A former member of the SDP prior to the Liberal/SDP merger, he contested Aberdeen South for the SDP in 1987. He was Liberal Democrat Deputy Chief whip between 2001 and 2006. Lib Dem shadow deputy leader of the Commons since 2008. Backed Sir Menzies Campbell in the 2006 leadership race (more information at They work for you)
Dennis Robertson (SNP) born 1956, Aberdeen. Educated at the Royal School for the Blind, Edinburg. Charity worker. Contested Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine and North East Scotland list in 2007 Scottish elections.
Anthony Atkinson (UKIP)Gary Raikes (BNP) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 81440
Male: 49.4%
Female: 50.6%
Under 18: 25.8%
Over 60: 17.8%
Born outside UK: 4.3%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.2%
Mixed: 0.3%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 62%
Graduates 16-74: 26%
No Qualifications 16-74: 23.5%
Owner-Occupied: 74.2%
Social Housing: 13.9% (Council: 11.3%, Housing Ass.: 2.6%)
Privately Rented: 8.2%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.7%
Edinburgh West was last won by Labour in 1929, but the tories returned to winning form there from 1931 right through to their defeat to the LDs in 1997, at which point the Labour vote was a tad under 19%. That increased to around 23% in 2001 when they overtook the tories, went back down to 18% due to the Iraq War in 2005 and ended up at their current position. Whether they can use it to take it in five years time remains to be seen, but I honestly wouldn’t bet against it.
Mike Crockart will have first time incumbency in his favour in 2015 which will make a considerable difference in Edinburgh West.
Yeah, a bonus of five years voting for tory cuts – that will go down well in Scotland!
I was always fascinated by that Labour victory in Edinburgh West in 1929. They came close in 1945 too (at a time when Edinburgh South was still rock-solid for the Tories.) Do you know what areas were included then?
I can see from the vision of Britain site that it didn’t include Corstorphine or Cramond (these areas were in Midlothian and Peeples, Northern which explains much about the political leanings of that seat). I guess it would have included Sighthill and Stenhouse and places like that as well as probably more Tory areas like Murrayfield
As will Labour having an English leader.
Pete
If ‘Midlothian and Peebles, North’ stretched that far north it couldn’t have included much of Peebles.
It didn’t include any of it. It was one of those strange nomenclatures that comes from pairing counties. Peebles and Midlothian were linked to create two seats outside Edinburgh so were entitled “Midlothian and Peeples, Northern” and “Midlothian and Peeples, Peebles and Southern”. So Midlothian and Peeples, Northern was just the northern part of Midlothian. It always seemed counter-intuitive to me that this should be a fairly safe Tory seat whereas the seat which included Peebles was easily Labour in 1945 and through most of the 1920s.
The reason of course is that most of the areas that make the current Midlothian seat safely Labour (Bonnyrigg, Loanhead etc) were in the Peebles and Southern seat whereas the Northern seat consisted largely of affluent Edinburgh suburbs which are now in various Edinburgh seats
“I was always fascinated by that Labour victory in Edinburgh West in 1929.”
Labour also won East Renfrewshire and Glasgow Cathcart in the twenties.
By combining the most Labour parts of Edinburgh Pentlands (Wester Hailes/ Sighthill) with the most Labour part of Leith (Pilton) with the most Labour part of Central (Steinhouse and Gorgie) – it would have been possible to create an Edinburgh West that was a safe Labour seat.
“Labour also won…Glasgow Cathcart in the twenties”
Yes by 33 votes over a (National (ie Lloyd George) Liberal) with the Conservatives in close third. It seems to have become safely Conservative thereafter. What was the source of the Labour support there in 1922? Obviously it predated the construction of Castlemilk by several decades, but I guess it predated the construction of much of the middle class suburban housing that made it safely Conservative. I assume it must have gone further in towards the city centre then.
Calum all 3 main parties said there would be cuts following the election this year, your own along with the greens was the only one to advocate continued tax and spend.
This didn’t appear to do you too much good.
Five years is a very long time in politics indeed but your predictions for the coming elections next year have been noted and we’ll all be very interested to see how they pan out.
Fair enough. We shall see who’s closest to the mark in May 2011.
You won’t find me making any predictions this far out Calum
Good point also. i mean at this stage in the run up to last year’s elections people were predicting SNP gains all over the place!
Probably the Conservative’s best hope for a gain in Scotland at the next general election.
Nicol Stephen has been awarded a peerage.
Aberdeenshire West 2011
LD 11000
SNP 9100
Con 8600
Lab 3600
Aberdeenshire West is a prime target for the SNP and I feel that Mike Rumbles will at least be run close by Dennis Robertson. Prediction:
SNP 10412 – 33.8% (+5.4)
LD 10143 – 32.9% (-8)
Con 7921 – 25.7% (+1.2)
Lab 2310 -7.5%(+1.4)
Happily this seems to reflect to an extent the general direction of swing in the Westminster constituency last May, and the swing away from the LDs here is around or slightly less than what I feel the national swing will be, with the swing to Labour also somewhat less than their national standing.
It’s easier to envisage the LD vote completely crumbling here than FIfe NE (although it could be down by 9/10% there). I think there was a list differential last time.
Depending on boundary gains a potential Tory gain next round?
‘Depending on boundary gains a potential Tory gain next round?’
With the boundary changes a redrawn Angus North and Mearns seat could possibly be a reasonable prospect depending on the notionals although a win wouldn’t be at all likely with the Ex LD anti con vote collapsing behind the SNP.
The only thing in the tories favour in that case would be a lack of incumbancy in the Stonehaven/Mearns area.
I can see the likelihood of a Liberal hold here.
Scots, in a Westminster election will realise that to vote anyone other than Liberal means to let the Conservatives in.
Add to this the incumbency factor for a popular local MP and it becomes a significant possibility of a hold here.
Reduced majority, granted.
Liberal majority of around 1,000 perhaps?
The Conservatives made some sensational gains against the Lib Dems in the English council elections in May, particularly in middle class areas.
We will be able to gage if this trend is also the case in Scotland in the local elections next year.
I suspect there is a swing going on from the Lib Dems to the Conservatives north of the border, but not as pronounced as the south west, south east and eastern england.
The boundary changes will be crucial as to whether this can be a Conservative gain next time. Although the loss of part of Salmond’s vote in Banff & Buchan last time was part of why the Conservatives performed so well there, the result still demonstrated they can have traction in Aberdeenshire and north east Scotland.
The Conservatives would be best to pool its resources from the North Eastern region into this constituency instead of marginally making progress elsewhere and failing to gain any seats.
I’m intrigued by the stated occupation of the 2010 Conservative candidate, Anthony.
Declaration of the 1991 Kincardine & Deeside by-election at 7 mins, 35 secs:
httttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMpy-djfo1o&
The easy Con recapture of this seat in 1992 was quite a surprise.
Maybe they do still have a chance here, depending how it’s drawn.
Council Prediction 2012
Con 16 (+2)
LD 11 (-13)
SNP 37 (+15)
Ind 4 (-4)
I think that STV will save the Lib Dems here. If it was FPTP i think the SNP would wipe them out.
Aberdeenshire Council results
First preferences
SNP 39% (+5%)
Con 21% (-%)
LD 15% (-10%)
Lab 7% (+1%)
Gre 2% (+1%)
Oth 15% (+2%)
Seats
SNP 28 (+6)
Con 14 (-)
LD 12 (-12)
Lab 2 (+2)
Gre 1 (+1)
Oth 11 (+3)
The elections earlier in May showed a stark polarisation across the Aberdeenshire Council area.
As expected, the SNP dominated the northern half of the constituency which contains Banff, Buchan, Peterhead. The collapsing Lib Dem vote helped them.
By contrast, the haemorhagging Lib Dem vote saw the Conservatives top the polls in most of the southern wards, except for North Kincardine. A key surprise came in Huntly, where they actually overtook the SNP in terms of votes.
The Tories, at the moment, would be very competitive in the old West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine or a new Deeside and Gordon successor. Their vote is holding up well and even making progress in some areas on five years ago, while the Lib Dems and SNP balance each other out.
Obviously Banff and Buchan seems to be returning back to its SNP dominance after the sensational swing achieved by Tory Jimmy Buchan in 2010, but Deeside & Gordon (or West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine) could well be the best bet for a Tory gain in Scotland if an election was held now.
I don’t think that Jimmy Buchan’s result could really be described as sensational; it was a good result though. It was inevitable that the SNP’s majority over the Tories would decline because of the retirement as a Westminster MP of Salmond. I think that Banff & Buchan ought to have some potential for Labour but the SNP’s strength has always shut my party out there; in many ways its social composition seems more promising than Moray, which was not a million miles short of a Labour gain a couple of elections ago.
Labour got a couple of councillors elected in Stonehaven and North Kincardine here.
The tory vote holding up in Banff and Buchan would be largely dependent on Buchan being the candidate again and the SNP incumbent will probably hold it with about half the vote at the next election I would think.
Anyway I must congratulate the tories on joining independents and LDs to shut the SNP out of power in Aberdeenshire which was quite an achievement!
Our Libdem MP Sir Robert Smith continues to remain totally anonymous at home and at Westminster these days. This is quite a feat when you consider we are in Conservative/Liberal Democrat Coalition in Government right now.