Aberdeen North
2010 Results:
Conservative: 4666 (12.38%)
Labour: 16746 (44.42%)
Liberal Democrat: 7001 (18.57%)
SNP: 8385 (22.24%)
BNP: 635 (1.68%)
Scottish Socialist: 268 (0.71%)
Majority: 8361 (22.18%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 15557 (42.5%)
Liberal Democrat: 8762 (23.9%)
SNP: 8168 (22.3%)
Conservative: 3456 (9.4%)
Other: 691 (1.9%)
Majority: 6795 (18.5%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 election.
2001 Result
Conservative: 3047 (10%)
Labour: 13157 (43.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4991 (16.4%)
SNP: 8708 (28.7%)
Other: 454 (1.5%)
Majority: 4449 (14.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 5763 (15%)
Labour: 18389 (47.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 5421 (14.1%)
SNP: 8379 (21.8%)
Referendum: 463 (1.2%)
Majority: 10010 (26.1%)
No Boundary Changes:
Profile: Aberdeen North contains most of the historic centre of Aberdeen, including the University and Aberdeen Harbour, which serves much of the North Sea Oil industry. The majority of the Scottish Parliamentary constituency of Aberdeen Central falls within this seat, and it is more urban than the old Aberdeen North having lost suburban areas like Dyce, Danestone and Bridge of Don. The seat has been held by Labour since 1935, although the Scottish Parliamentary seat of Aberdeen North, which does not include Central Aberdeen, has been held by the SNP since 2003.
Current MP: Frank Doran(Labour) born 1949. Partner of Joan Ruddock, the MP for Lewisham Deptford. Educated at Univeristy of Dundee. Practiced as a solicitor until 1988. First elected as MP for Aberdeen South in 1987, lost the seat in 1992 (the only seat Labour lost at the election). Returned as MP for Aberdeen Central in 1997. When the seat was abolished in 2005 he defeated Malcolm Savidge, the sitting MP, for the Aberdeen North nomination. Doran is regarded as a former left winger who has since moved rightwards. He served as a junior Energy spokeman under Neil Kinnock`s leadership (acting for a time as a junior spokesman in a team lead by Tony Blair), and was PPS to Ian McCartney between 1997-1999. He rebelled against the government over Iraq. (more information at They work for you)
Stewart Whyte (Conservative) Educated at Banff Academy and Aberdeen University. Teacher. Contested Aberdeen Central 2001, Banff and Buchan 2003, Aberdeen South 2005, Aderdeenshire West and Kincardine 2007.Frank Doran(Labour) born 1949. Partner of Joan Ruddock, the MP for Lewisham Deptford. Educated at Univeristy of Dundee. Practiced as a solicitor until 1988. First elected as MP for Aberdeen South in 1987, lost the seat in 1992 (the only seat Labour lost at the election). Returned as MP for Aberdeen Central in 1997. When the seat was abolished in 2005 he defeated Malcolm Savidge, the sitting MP, for the Aberdeen North nomination. Doran is regarded as a former left winger who has since moved rightwards. He served as a junior Energy spokeman under Neil Kinnock`s leadership (acting for a time as a junior spokesman in a team lead by Tony Blair), and was PPS to Ian McCartney between 1997-1999. He rebelled against the government over Iraq. (more information at They work for you)
Kristian Chapman (Liberal Democrat) Born 1988. Educated at St Bede`s High School. Student at Aberdeen University.
Joanna Strathdee (SNP) Aberdeenshire councillor since 2005. Contested Gordon 2005
Roy Jones (BNP)
Ewan Robertson (SSP) .2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 91659
Male: 48.4%
Female: 51.6%
Under 18: 19.4%
Over 60: 20.4%
Born outside UK: 5.9%
White: 96.7%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 1.2%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 1.1%
Christian: 46.3%
Muslim: 1%
Graduates 16-74: 19%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.2%
Owner-Occupied: 48.4%
Social Housing: 38.4% (Council: 33.9%, Housing Ass.: 4.5%)
Privately Rented: 9.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7%
Frank Doran is the only MP representing a Scottish constituency at present who has returned to the Commons after previously losing his seat – the only “retread”.
Surprised no Lib Dem or Conservative candidate here?
Also saw the comment above about Joanna Strathdee being the SNP candidate – what happened to Kevin Stewart?
Kevin Stewart was the candidate for the October 2008 election that never was.
He was been replaced by Joanna Strathdee, leader of the SNP Group in Aberdeenshire.
Word on the street is that Salmond had Kevin Stewart removed as candidate because Stewart as Deputy Leader of Aberdeen Council and lead councillor for Finance might be damaged by serious Council cuts required to meet Salmond’s flagship policy of freezing council tax for three years.
The Conservatives have selected Stewart Whyte who stood in Banff & Bushan in 2003, Aberdeen S in 2005 and Aberdeenshire W & Kincardine in 2007
I head the Liberals had selected a guy called Kristian Chapman. Anyone know if this is true?
Roy Jones is the BNP candidate here.
Stephen – Kristian Chapman is indeed the Lib Dem candidate here
The Liberal Democrats have selected local student Kristian Chapman to fight the seat. Kristian is a student at Aberdeen Uni and President of Liberal Youth Scotland.
Looks like the Tories will be going for a paper candidate here.
Have just looked on Oddschecker.com and Labour are 1/5 and the SNP are 32/10 on Betfair.com.
Ewan Robertson standing for the SSP candidate here
Matt I think you deserve an award for hunting down the most parliamentary candidates.
Thanks, its good to know someone doesn’t mind me posting candidate details on here 🙂
Labour hold= 3,500 majority over SNP
LAB 5000
SNP 2nd
I have decided that now the campaign has started I will predict the winner for every seat in Scotland. I will predict the order of the 4 main parties and the approximate majority.
Aberdeen North
Labour
SNP
Libdem
Conservative
Majority – 4500
Lab hold maj 4000
Lab Hold
Maj 4500
Don’t be too sure about Labour holding this type of seat. If the Lib Dems rob 2500 seats from Labour then the SNP could sneak in.
Lab maj 2,500 (SNP 2nd)
Liberal Democrat: 10898
Labour: 10868
SNP: 10282
Conservative: 4356
Other: 877
Majority: 30
As the SSP candidate, I am a postgraduate student at Aberdeen University, and wikipedia has the accurate past votes, (other=SSP in this constituency pretty much since 2001).
Cheers
Labour HOLD
No one will vote tactically for anything in Aberdeen, they would rather throw their vote to the wind. It will be status quo with the majority of voters not represented in parliament.
Predicted result
Labour 8000
Lim Dems 7999
SNP 7999
Others 999
Hey, Labour wins a seat, the other 16997, you leave with nothing, goodbye!
That’s Britsh democracy – mugs!
The SNP have been working this seat pretty hard and have been visible at various times when I’ve been driving round Abedeen North and they seem to be the only party with any posters up in the constituency.
Think this could be close.
LAB HOLD
The odds on this seat are tightening and there’s a chance the SNP will at least run Labour very close here.
William Hill: Labour at 4/11 and SNP at 5/2
Aberdeen Donside 2011 Prediction:
SNP 11250 (-3)
Labour 10750 (+8)
LD 3000 (-5)
Con 2000(nc)
Aberdeen Central 2011 prediction
Labour 10600 (+8)
SNP 9100 (+2)
LD 5000 (-9)
Con 3000 (nc)
I meant
Lab 11000
SNP 9000
LD 5000
Con 4000
That Aberdeen Central prediction looks like it could be a recurring theme across most of Scotland IMO – SNP holding still or increasing their vote share but the LD to Labour swing being the main change. Of course in central Scotland the SNP will more than likely slip back significantly as well and in the highlands perhaps they will take as much of the LD vote as Labour.
I would imagine Barney Crockett should be in with a chance of winning Aberdeen Donside if the LD vote really plummets seeing as Labour has held the seat before 2003.
What can I say!
Prediction: Aberdeen Donside 2011
Lab 12000
SNP: 11000
LD 2500
Con 2500
Predictions for May 2011 Scottish Parliament election
Aberdeen Donside
SNP – 10000
Lab – 7000
LD – 3000
Con – 2000
Aberdeen Central
SNP – 8000
Lab – 7000
LD – 4000
Con – 3000
I have no idea of the situation on the ground in Aberdeen Donside but given the national polling I would say that the SNP are certainly the favourites to hold the seat. However, I’m sure Barney as the Labour candidate will have a different view and perhaps the council situation will mean that the SNP do not perform as well as a UNS would suggest.
Yes it would be interesting to hear from Barney, good luck to him I suppose even though hopes are fading.
Indeed, I feel the SNP is very much the favourite in Donside now and unless the national picture shifts hugely towards labour in the coming 10 days and/or the local picture is massively different from anywhere else in Scotland Adam should hold easily. Good luck to him anyway though, I’ve enjoyed his contributions to the site in the past few months.
A Brown/ Calum W
You are both far too gracious. And you Calum are certainly no cybernat (which you described yourself as)!
Locally, it is blood and snotters time!
What can I say, I’m trying to redefine the brand! I try to be fairly moderate and reasonable, because otherwise we just end up with pointless point-scoring when in reality it makes no difference how much we shout and scream online.
Blood and snotters time in most places I’d imagine. Good luck again on a personal level, we’ll just have to wait and see what the electorate says come May 5th.
Calum
Thanks a lot
Commiserations Barney but I think Labour failed to outline a clear vision for enhancing devolution to counter independence in this campaign.
I hope Labour heeds Susan Deacon and Henry McLeish’s advice.
My advice would also be to put Helen Eadie forward for PO if required as Hugh Henry needs to be kept on board.
Good luck for the council elections next year.
A Brown
Thanks. Much appreciated.
We have a council by election in this ward very soon.
People in Aberdeen are reeling at the local outcomes particularly the loss of Aberdeen Central to Kevin Stewart
My belief is that, most ironically, the more comfortable inhabitants in my constituency voted for the option which they thought entailed least change. They did not think independence was on the table but “no change”
Interesting to here that Barney. Could the poorer voters not be mobilised to turn out?
As for what Amber was saying with regard to Labour in Scotland, she is right to an extent as Labour is not going to out-Scottish the SNP. I think Federalism and giving real power/stature to the Scottish leader is the key actually.
In short I think Labour should become federalists in Scotland rather than unionists and real reform of Westminster (ie. PR etc) is more urgent than ever.
As for lower corporation tax for Scotland, I doubt that’s a good idea and Labour should probably oppose that but come up with some alternative ideas for extra powers etc.
I hope my thoughts are useful and are passed on.
Was present-day George St/Harbour ward in Aberdeen South from 1885-1997 and Aberdeen Central 1997-2005?
Predominantly in Aberdeen South, certainly; I’d be surprised, though, if some of the more northerly parts of the ward weren’t in Aberdeen North some of the time.
Incidentally, for the latest boundary review, the Lib Dems offered a counterproposal for Aberdeen that involved splitting both this ward and Rosemount/Midstocket, using Westburn Road, Hutcheon Street, Mounthooly and Seaforth Road (I think) as the constituency boundary. There’s some merit in that, as most of Rosemount/Midstocket is part of the middle-class south-western Aberdeen district that also includes Queen’s Cross and Rubislaw Den, all of which are in the proposed South, whereas the part north of Westburn Road, Ashgrove, has more in common with communities in North like Cairncry and Kittybrewster.
Less than 50% of white people here are christians. Wonder if this is a record
There was an almost unbelievable shift in opinion in this constituency between 1929 and 1931:
1929:
Lab 17,826 (60.8%)
Lib 9,799 (33.4%)
Com 1,686 (5.8%)
1931:
Con 22,931 (64.3%)
Lab 8,753 (24.5%)
Com 3,980 (11.2%)
I assume most Conservatives were supporting the Liberal candidate in 1929…