Aberconwy
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10734 (35.82%)
Labour: 7336 (24.48%)
Liberal Democrat: 5786 (19.31%)
Plaid Cymru: 5341 (17.82%)
UKIP: 632 (2.11%)
Christian: 137 (0.46%)
Majority: 3398 (11.34%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 9119 (31.5%)
Conservative: 8875 (30.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5733 (19.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 4186 (14.4%)
Other: 1080 (3.7%)
Majority: 243 (0.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 9398 (27.9%)
Labour: 12479 (37.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6723 (20%)
Plaid Cymru: 3730 (11.1%)
Green: 512 (1.5%)
UKIP: 298 (0.9%)
Other: 517 (1.5%)
Majority: 3081 (9.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8147 (23.7%)
Labour: 14366 (41.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5800 (16.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 5665 (16.5%)
UKIP: 388 (1.1%)
Majority: 6219 (18.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10085 (24.3%)
Labour: 14561 (35%)
Liberal Democrat: 12965 (31.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2844 (6.8%)
Referendum: 760 (1.8%)
Other: 345 (0.8%)
Majority: 1596 (3.8%)
Boundary changes: underwent major changes in the boundary review to bring it in line with the preserved Welsh county boundaries. Conwy lost Bangor to the new
Profile: Aberconwy consists of the town of Conwy itself, the Victorian seaside resort of Landudno and the Conwy Valley, including Llanrwst and Betws-Y-Coed. Prior to 1997 the seat had been held by the Conservative party for 27 years. After the retirement of Wyn Roberts in 1997 Labour won it from third place. In the 1999 Welsh assembly elections the seat was a surprise win for Plaid, but was won again by Labour in 2003, with Plaid a close second. The removal of Labour voting Bangor under the new boundaries once again makes the seat a prime target for the Tories.
Current MP: Guto Bebb (Conservative) born 1968, Wrexham. Educated at the University of Wales. Partner in an Economic Development Consultancy. A former Plaid Cymru constituency chairman he defected after being ousted as local chair for his opposition to the single currency. Contested Ogmore by-election 2002, Conwy in 2003 Welsh Assembly elections, Conwy 2005.
Guto Bebb (Conservative) born 1968, Wrexham. Educated at the University of Wales. Partner in an Economic Development Consultancy. A former Plaid Cymru constituency chairman he defected after being ousted as local chair for his opposition to the single currency. Contested Ogmore by-election 2002, Conwy in 2003 Welsh Assembly elections, Conwy 2005.
Ronnie Hughes (Labour) Conwy councillor and former leader of the council. Former Aberconwy councillor.
Mike Priestley (Liberal Democrat) Born 1966, Colwyn Bay. Educated at Ysgol Aberconwy. Royal mail delivery office manager. Conwy councillor.
Phil Edwards (Plaid Cymru) Educated at Ysgol Y Gader. Former policeman. Contested Clwyd West in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.
Michael Wieteska (UKIP) Born 1945, Salford. Educated at North Carolina College of Theology. Pastor.
Louise Wynne Jones (Christian Party) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 55388
Male: 48.1%
Female: 51.9%
Under 18: 20.3%
Over 60: 28.8%
Born outside UK: 3.3%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77.6%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 18.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.7%
Owner-Occupied: 73.2%
Social Housing: 12% (Council: 7.7%, Housing Ass.: 4.3%)
Privately Rented: 11.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16%
Iwan Huws selected for Plaid Cymru
Aberconwy 2011
PC 34%
Con 32%
Lab 29%
LD 5%
I very much doubt that Plaid will retain this seat. There support is dependent upon their existing AM, who is standing down.
This was evident in the General Election, where, despite all their sound and fury that they would sweep all before them in this seat, they actually came 4th. I imagine they will come third in May with a vote in the low 20s/high teens. Plaid are not in the ascendancy in Wales and I think they will lose votes as, with Labour now being out of office, they will lose the disgruntled Labour vote back to its natural home.
There is an Independent now standing here who could mix things up a bit as well, more so for the Tories as he is a councillor for a very Conservative-voting ward. Whether that support will extend beyond local elections only time will tell.
Also, I really doubt the Libs will go as low as 5%. I assume you don’t know who their candidate is?
He is a guy called Mike Priestley, who is an extremely popular councillor from Llandudno Junction and he will get votes regardless of the national picture. His candidature might be bad for Labour as his patch is very Labour traditionally, but many would probably vote for Mike over the Labour candidate.
He will get a similar vote to Plaid Cymru.
Who do you think will win the seat then Matt?
I’d say all four parties are in contention – Plaid will certainly better their quite frankly (especially so after all their boasts) dismal showing in the Westminister election, both Labour and Tories are clearly in play and Mike Priestly is a popular local candidate so I don’t think he can be written off either
Whoever does win its certain to be on the lowest share of the vote possible
Agree entirely with Tim. A four way contest . Plaid tried to squeeze Lib Dem and Labour votes in the May election but could do no better than 4th place.
Assembly election – the Tory candidate is much weaker than Dylan Jones-Evans, the Plaid candidate is new and Gareth will be hard to follow – Plaid this time can’t possibly harvest the “Save Llandudno Hospital “Vote and voters will have seen through their 2010 “it’s either us or the Tories”.
Ronnie for Labour is better known than Denise Idris Jones and Mike Priestley showed his ability to attract support last May – in a tight four way he only needs to add 6 or 7% to take the Assembly seat and with Weyman taking Deganwy Tory votes it will be a close and exciting contest.
The Tory candidate is very well known and liked throughout Conwy.
Nominations closede today for a local county council by-election in the Marl Ward (Llandudno Junction). This follows the resignation of a conservative councillor. The other seat in the ward is held by Lib Dem Parliamentary candidate Mike Priestley.
Sue Shotter is the Lib Dem and there are Conservative, Independent and Labour candidates but no Plaid Cymru ! Strange, with Plaid defending the constituency assembly seat in May.
Interestingly, the Tory candidate is ‘Julie from Llandudno’ of the Tory general election ads. If she wins surely she would be a prime candidiate for the ‘Best Looking Councillor’ category in another place.
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Prospective-Conservative-Candidate-for-County-Councillor-Marl-Ward/154965157887312
Jan 20th. Marl ward (Deganwy/LLandudno Junction) By-election – LIB DEM gain from Conservatives ! Sue Shotter (Lib Dem) 389; Cons 270; Lab 216; Ind 87
Lib Dem gain but a swing of about 8% from LD to Conservative (with actually Labour seeing the greatest improvement)
Jason Weyman has stood down . Ronnie Hughes has dropped his council duties as a result of very poor health.
We wish Ronnie Hughes well – but very uncertain that he’ll be
Labour’s Assembly candidate; Janet Finch-Saunders is new Tory candidate replacing highly respected Prof Dylan Jones-Evans; Iwan Hughes (?) largely unknown in the Aberconwy constituency is the recently selected Plaid candidate; local councillor and cabinet member Mike Priestley is the Lib Dem candidate (he fought the General Election here). What are the odds ?
Cllr Ronny Hughes has announced his withdrawal as the Assembly candidate. Odds on favorite to win must be the Conservative Candidate Janet Finch-Saunders.
The labour candidate is Eifion Wyn Williams.
Lives in Wrexham but has works in Conwy and has family links in the Llanrwst area.
My revised prediction (probably nonsense)
Con 31%
Lab 28%
PC 26%
LD 10%
Weyman 5%
Turnout 54%
Actually my mistake
Con 31%
Lab 29%
PC 25%
LD 15%
Delighted with ABrown,sgrowing support for the Lib Dems !! Starts at 5%, goes up to 10%, then reaches 15% !! Just another two goes and Mike Priestley will be the likely winner in the Aberconwy seat ! He’s by far the best known and respected of the candidates
. Both Labour and Plaid candidates have a lot of work to get themselves known whilst the Conservative is said to be ” very well known and liked” in the constituency. Where does Gary get this impression ?
@Conwy Lad
Are you seriously suggesting that the lib dems are putting all their effort into this seat to offset a possible list seat loss? Is more than 10-15% seriously possible?
I think I’m suffering from deja vu – sure I can remember someone ramping up the LDs here before……….
Is Conway Lad the mysterious GetReal from Liverpool Wavertree, who slunk away never to be seen again after the General Election?
The same level of stupid predictions of absurd Lib Dem gains, and the same irritating use of exclamation marks everywhere.
Theres more chance of Conway falling into the sea on May 5th than there is of the Lib dems actually winning this seat.
The Lib Dems have had Conway in their sights since the late 1980s and on each and every occassion they have been foiled. Even when they have got within a very close margin of actually winning they have had the prize snatched away at the last moment.
Why should this time be any different when-if rumours are to be believed, the Lib Dems will be lucky to return to Cardiff with more than 3 seats in May?
I’d like to think the Conservative candidate can win it (clearly, I’m not on the ground here and so honestly can’t say) but even that I find a little hard to believe. It wasn’t won at any of the assembly elections when the Conservatives were in opposition. Why should it suddenly be won now? Surely if Plaid are unpopular here now it will be Labour that is benefiting?
Perhaps Get Real fled here to escape from the Liverpool bank manager he had convinced into betting the bank deposits on a LibDem win in Wavertree!
Yes.
He most likely convinced all those mates of his down the pub that he told us so much about to do the same.
‘Theres more chance of Conway falling into the sea on May 5th than there is of the Lib dems actually winning this seat.’
Not really Shaun
You made some pretty outlandish predictions yourself Shaun
I love the way the Tory posters gang up together whenever someone dares predict an upset for a party not from the Right
Of the candidates, Mike Priestly probably is the best regarded locally
I very much doubt it will be enough for him to take the runners up spot, let alone win the seat – but I was ridiculed for predicting the Lib Dems would poll more votes than Plaid in the general election and yet they managed it so you never know
I suspect that like the general election whoever does win it will be with a derisory share of the vote (not much more than 30%0
Actually Tim that’s not fair. Shaun is not noted for making outlandish predictions at all. He has always tended towards caution in political predictions despite having pretty trenchant political views. There have always been trolls here, not all pro-Lib Dem – there was the infamous Labour troll Ian Mackintosh, and some remarkable Plaid Cymru rampers as well – but in no way can Shaun be described as one of them.
I second that Barnaby.
Shaun does not ramp Tory chances.
He is pretty realistic.
He rightly dislikes absurd ramping which on here pre-GE was especially pronounced by certain Lib Dems, who disappeared never to be heard of again after they were proved completely wrong.
Shaun maybe found it hard to accept that there were a few places where the prospect of a Lib Dem surge wasn’t absurd. Ashfield was one of them, as the result proved and I predicted, and he ridiculed me for it numerous times.
And Tim – I’m not “a Tory poster” – if indeed I was one of the people you were referring to.
I am an independent mind and that’s why I do not attach colours to my posts.
It’s true I have more often than not voted Tory as the least worst option, but not always.
I voted for Ken in 2008 I’ll have you know!
Shaun went in for a little bit of Lib Dem ramping himself when he suddenly decided they were going to win Wansbeck after Ian Lavery was selected
‘Shaun is not noted for making outlandish predictions at all.’
Generally he’s not – but like all of us he called a few that turned out wrong
It seems particulartly harsh to completely ridicule someone for doing the same – especially someone who I assume being local knows alot more about the candidates and their prospects at the poll than Shuan or I
The Lib Dems used to be very strong in the old seat of Conwy and whilst that was almost entirely down to a popular local candidate, whose to say history can’t repeat itself should they select someone of equal calibre
“It seems particulartly harsh to completely ridicule someone for doing the same – especially someone who I assume being local knows alot more about the candidates and their prospects at the poll than Shuan or I”
Read through the rest of this thread and you will see that ConwyLad has form for the most ridiculous ramping, all of which turned out to be wrong. Being local does not appear to have given him an ability to read the way things are going in Conwy
Here are some examples of his predictions of the general election result here:
“With Labour out of the contest where will the Labour voters go ? Not many to Conservative, most to Lib Dems and Plaid. The Aberconwy contest could resolve into Plaid v Lib Dems if, as looks likely the Labour vote collapses.”
“I stick to my prediction that not only have Labour lost the seat but that that the Lib Dems will be the main challengers !”
Yes I hold my hands up and say that Hemmlig was far closer on Ashfield than me…although the Lib dems didn’t win it as I said they wouldn’t.
I also greatly overestimated the Lib Dems ability to win Wansbeck. Although to be honest, I take back nothing that I said about the Labour candidate. He is not fit to represent a major party in parliament and Labour deserved to be punished for selecting him.
But they didn’t, we’ll leave it at that.
The difference here on Conway is that looking back we can see a number of little campaigns to make the Lib Dems the favourites to win-NONE of which ever actually pay off. And it won’t this time.
Maybe I was too flippant in my dismissal of Conway lad’s expectations. But I stand by my prediction that the Lib dems will be nowhere near winning in May.
Finally let me just point out to Tim that when he accuses me of ramping up Tory chances, on Conway I actually said this:
“I’d like to think the Conservative candidate can win it (clearly, I’m not on the ground here and so honestly can’t say) but even that I find a little hard to believe. It wasn’t won at any of the assembly elections when the Conservatives were in opposition. Why should it suddenly be won now? Surely if Plaid are unpopular here now it will be Labour that is benefiting?”
Reading that back, I think I was saying that I expect Labour to win???
Yes Shaun you did get over-excited about Ian Lavery, but continuing with my rather odd theme of being scrupulously fair to you, you did actually recant your earlier rant & ended up predicting a Lab Hold in Wansbeck which of course was correct. Tim you are correct that Shaun did get some seats wrong (generally the same ones I got wrong myself!) but apart from his initial reaction that Ian Lavery might lose I don’t think any of his predictions could be described as “wild” in any way. Failing to predict that the LDs might NEARLY win Ashfield doesn’t count as wild in my book. Predicting they might win it NEXT time could however count as a bit wild at the moment. Shaun consistently predicted widespread Labour losses in 2010 but that the Tories would fail to gain an outright majority, which was obviously completely correct.
Having said all that, I have rather missed some of the more absurd predictions of the likes of Smokey Jones, GetReal and/or Conwy Lad (they could indeed as H.Hemmelig says be one and the same) – they can cause me much-needed amusement! I don’t miss the sillier predictions of Ian Mackintosh though since he was in danger of making all of us Labour people look idiotic – whereas of course in reality we all have towering intellects.
But the point is Shaun no matter how well recent results do their best to obscure it, this area used to be a very good one for the Lib Dems – I know because I campaigned in it
And in the recent poll (the general election) the victor was only 5000 votes ahead of the 4th placed Plaid candidate, which to me suggests it genuinely is one of those seats where any of the four parties could win
As I said before its unlikely to go Lib Dem but i just thought it was out of order (you weren’t the only one) to mock a guy for overhyping Lib Dem chances
The point is Tim that nobody has ever denied that this area ‘used’ to be a good one for the Lib Dems. I certainly haven’t denied it.
Knowing the area myself, I would be astonished if the Lib Dems were entirely dead here.
But thats a completely different thing from predicting a Lib Dem gain AGAINST the trend at this election. It isn’t crazy to say that its not going to happen.
‘But thats a completely different thing from predicting a Lib Dem gain AGAINST the trend at this election.’
I accept that it’s an unlikely call Shaun – and coming from somebody who predicted the Lib Dems would take the Westminster seat (when as we all know they didn’t come close) perhaps it’s not the most credible prediction either
But this seat does look like a 4-way marginal (and in that respect it’s unfortunate that it looks set to exist just for one Parloiament as far as Westmoinster is concerned) so i don’t think any of the four candidates can be ruled out
The Tory candidate has a high profile within Aberconwy. Haven’t her folks been involved with politics there too ? Guto Bebb ismaking some presence there so it should be a shoe in for the blues.
Aberconwy result is wide open.
1.Tory candidate’s parents were local councillors – she,s working hard but last time’s candidate Prof Jones-Evans was, I’m told, more highly regarded – even some Tories are not supportive .
2. Plaid’s AM – Gareth jones – local head teacher – widely respected is standing down. New candidate has to get himself known in the constituency.
3. Cllr Mike Priestley -Lib Dem – well known and popular.Got 20% at General Election. Euron Hughes,last time’s Lib. dem was largely unknown.
4. New Labour candidate also must get himself across.
Personal vote and record far more important at Assembly election than Westminster election.
even some Tories are not supportive .?
Don’t understand this as I have seen her out all over the place with many of the rank and file local Tories.
Always be sceptical of what Conwy Lad says Gary, he will always present things in the best possible light for the LDs.
Welsh Assembly 2011: Labour Gain
Conservative Gain
Conservatives to win
Too close to call !
Out of the nine North Wales constituencies, do you think the Conservatives will gain one of them? If they do are they then likely to lose one of the regional seats?
After meeting all the candidates who have come to my door, my feelings are that the only electable candidate is Eifion Wyn Williams for Labour.
Will be a close call but thinking Tories will squeeze it. not sure about regional implications
Well, If the Tories win two constituency seats, then they are likely to lose one of the regional North Wales seats.
One online betting site I looked at had the following odds :-
Iwan Hughes – 1/7
Eifion Williams – 7/2
Janet finch-Saunders – 12/1
Mike Priestly – 125/1
These guys don’t usually lose money.
Something to think about.
If the number of Poster Boards was anything to go by, or the quality of literature , Mike Priestley would be way ahead. Aberconwy is still too close to call !