Aberconwy
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10734 (35.82%)
Labour: 7336 (24.48%)
Liberal Democrat: 5786 (19.31%)
Plaid Cymru: 5341 (17.82%)
UKIP: 632 (2.11%)
Christian: 137 (0.46%)
Majority: 3398 (11.34%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 9119 (31.5%)
Conservative: 8875 (30.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5733 (19.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 4186 (14.4%)
Other: 1080 (3.7%)
Majority: 243 (0.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 9398 (27.9%)
Labour: 12479 (37.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6723 (20%)
Plaid Cymru: 3730 (11.1%)
Green: 512 (1.5%)
UKIP: 298 (0.9%)
Other: 517 (1.5%)
Majority: 3081 (9.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8147 (23.7%)
Labour: 14366 (41.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5800 (16.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 5665 (16.5%)
UKIP: 388 (1.1%)
Majority: 6219 (18.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10085 (24.3%)
Labour: 14561 (35%)
Liberal Democrat: 12965 (31.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2844 (6.8%)
Referendum: 760 (1.8%)
Other: 345 (0.8%)
Majority: 1596 (3.8%)
Boundary changes: underwent major changes in the boundary review to bring it in line with the preserved Welsh county boundaries. Conwy lost Bangor to the new
Profile: Aberconwy consists of the town of Conwy itself, the Victorian seaside resort of Landudno and the Conwy Valley, including Llanrwst and Betws-Y-Coed. Prior to 1997 the seat had been held by the Conservative party for 27 years. After the retirement of Wyn Roberts in 1997 Labour won it from third place. In the 1999 Welsh assembly elections the seat was a surprise win for Plaid, but was won again by Labour in 2003, with Plaid a close second. The removal of Labour voting Bangor under the new boundaries once again makes the seat a prime target for the Tories.
Current MP: Guto Bebb (Conservative) born 1968, Wrexham. Educated at the University of Wales. Partner in an Economic Development Consultancy. A former Plaid Cymru constituency chairman he defected after being ousted as local chair for his opposition to the single currency. Contested Ogmore by-election 2002, Conwy in 2003 Welsh Assembly elections, Conwy 2005.
Guto Bebb (Conservative) born 1968, Wrexham. Educated at the University of Wales. Partner in an Economic Development Consultancy. A former Plaid Cymru constituency chairman he defected after being ousted as local chair for his opposition to the single currency. Contested Ogmore by-election 2002, Conwy in 2003 Welsh Assembly elections, Conwy 2005.
Ronnie Hughes (Labour) Conwy councillor and former leader of the council. Former Aberconwy councillor.
Mike Priestley (Liberal Democrat) Born 1966, Colwyn Bay. Educated at Ysgol Aberconwy. Royal mail delivery office manager. Conwy councillor.
Phil Edwards (Plaid Cymru) Educated at Ysgol Y Gader. Former policeman. Contested Clwyd West in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.
Michael Wieteska (UKIP) Born 1945, Salford. Educated at North Carolina College of Theology. Pastor.
Louise Wynne Jones (Christian Party) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 55388
Male: 48.1%
Female: 51.9%
Under 18: 20.3%
Over 60: 28.8%
Born outside UK: 3.3%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77.6%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 18.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.7%
Owner-Occupied: 73.2%
Social Housing: 12% (Council: 7.7%, Housing Ass.: 4.3%)
Privately Rented: 11.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16%
“but was won again by Labour in 2003, with the Conservatives a close second” – should be Plaid Cymru a close second in 2003 (Lab 6467, PC 6395, Con 5152, LD 2914). Betty Williams was a County Councillor in Talysarn, which was never part of the Conwy constituency – it is in Caernarfon constituency. Actual 2005 results has left off Plaid Cymru 3730. Labour only achieved about 40% of the vote in Bangor in 2005.
So does that mean we can make a guess for Aberconwy 2007?
Harry -
It’s not something I’ve looked at at all (in fact I only just cottoned on to the fact that, unlike the Scottish Assembly, the Welsh assembly’s boundaries are changing in line with the Westminster ones – obviously because there isn’t the issue of a reduction in the number of seats).
Maybe in the coming weeks I’ll have a go at some notional figures.
With the different voting patterns evident between the WA & UK elections, expect this seat to be a Lab/Con marginal at Westminster and a Plaid/Con marginal in Cardiff Bay.
If Betty Williams stands in this seat and not Arfon I think she will just about hang on. Their is a sizeable Lib Dem vote that could be sqeezed but many ‘hard core’ Lib Dems haven’t forgiven Betty and the local Labout for winning this seat in 97 and preventing 5 times Lib Dem candidate Roger Roberts from winning.
Sizeable LD vote to squeeze- and that will go to Labour how? Not this time round. Why the Tories haven’t selected a candidate here yet beats me- the seat is theirs for the taking
Just back from North Wales and Labour seem confident in winning this seat. PC + Tory vote is split. Lib Dem vote is weak and seems to be splitting 3 ways. Prediction is Labour win with Tory 2nd PC 3rd.
This will be another of those fascinating too close to call seats that will delight us all on the night. I am going to stick my neck out and predict a battle between Tories and Plaid Cymru for first place in the Welsh Assembly elections this year and then a battle between Tories and Labour at the general-but probably with the Tories winning through in the end.
…Having said that, the bloody Lib Dem’s will probably win it!
Betty Williams has done extraordinarily well in this seat so far, which would lead one to believe she can hang on once again.
Of course, as soon as one makes such a prediction, she’ll probably lose on a big swing, so difficult to call this one.
The collapse in the Lib Dem vote simply due to the absence of Roger Roberts is quite an amazing phenomenon.
I can’t see the Tories not winning the Westminster seat.
The Assembly battle in may should be more interesting, I can’t see the tories getting near in that case, but I think Plaid have a very good chance.
The problem is that as far I am aware not a single opinion poll has even been conducted in Wales and so we are all speculating in the dark about the likley outcome of the assembly elections. We are all presuming that Plaid Cymru are going to do spectacularly well without any real basis whatsoever.
The fact still remains that in 2003 elections the Tories won just one less seat than Plaid and they may well move into second place this year. Presumably, Labour will make heavy losses (again, we can’t KNOW but everyone believes that it will happen) and if the Conservatives are moving into second place, Aberconway surely will be one to watch for them. That is why I put it as a Tory-Plaid battle.
Still, not long to wait now.
Beyond all doubt this will definitely be a Conservative gain at the next General Election. The seat will either be Labour or Conservative after the Welsh Assembly election. Plaid Cymru will loose votes.
Based on these new boundaries, I believe that Plaid would have won this seat at the last assembly election with a majority of about 4.5% over Labour-but with Labour and Conservatives running almost neck and neck and only a few dozen votes apart. It is a fascinating three way seat to watch this May and will probably be far more interesting than seats like Arfon or Clwyd West.
I participated in an election here when Labour won it in the 60s – and in the 90s !!
It’s a brave man or woman who would predict anything about this seat !
The Roger Roberts effect has been dramatic – the Lib Dem vote collapsed in 2001, but then recovered in 2005 when the candidate was … er … Roger’s son !!!
I doubt we will ever see that phenomenon again – Roger had huge support from a constituency (used in the non-technical sense) that is vanishing rapidly – Welsh chapelgoers !
If this seat goes blue in May then I suspect the Tories will also take it in 2010. If not, they may well still nick it but it would be more difficult to call
I have just spent a few days in Conwy and I honestly say that this could be a Labour win. Betty Williams has been an excellent MP and along side Denise Idris Jones they make an excellent team. PC support is not as strong as I thought it would be in the valley bit of the new seat. This might be down to Denise been a school teacher prior to election 4 years ago. I am predicting that the Tory & PC will be dissapointed on May 3. Labour win – just.
But Denise wasn’t a local teacher so that wouldn’t have helped her. She was a teacher in Wrexham and I don’t think anyone had ever heard of her. Her win was most probably down to the Labour vote falling by less than the Plaid vote at the last election. They both went down if I remember correctly. I don’t see how Labour could possibly retain this seat on May 4th. It’s almost certain to fall I feel.
Well, I live in this “marginal” constituency and so far I’ve seen very little activity, save for a few leaflets on our doorstep and a Lib Dem and UKIP person gossiping to each other in Colwyn Bay High Street. Very poor show I must say.
Pingback: Did you know there’s an election today? » wonderful electric
here goes. 1st place Tories then Labour then PC third.
So much for predictions!
Well done Gareth!
Betty W (MP) is a good ‘un, a proper NON Blair clone.
Problem is the fact that Labour are not totally popular up in the region (I work there and live next door, so to speak).
Plaid won well for Senedd, and may even have Tories worried at San Steffan (westminster) level.
Really depends on how Gordon can try and bring back the Labour vote. If he is a strong PM then Labour may even scrape it back….. Otherwise it will be a big Tory Plaid fight – and it is open season………………………
Only 9000 votes to win?
I’m surprised that all our resident Lib Dem supporters have been so quiet on this seat.
Surely the fact that they are within 12% of Labour here indicates that they are the clear challengers?
Looking at the notional result Plaid shouldn’t have a chance, yet they won it at WA level in May so, clearly, have to be in contention for it. I would expect it to turn out to be a straight Lab/Con fight though at Westminster level
But then they won Islwyn and Rhondda in previous WA elections and were never considered in contention in those westminster seats. Also wouldnt say theyre in contention in Llanelli Westminster seat.
Do we know if Betty Williams is going for this seat or Arfon? IN some ways Arfon would be her better bet and she is based in Bangor I believe. If she contests this she has some chance – if not it’s going Conseravtive for sure, and probably even if she does
Yeah, Pete, “It’s a 2 horse race – Only the Lib Dems can beat (oh, who the h… is it again?) here!”
Gwyn, some time ago you mentioned Roger Roberts,one of my great friends in the party – yes, of course he could influence the declining band of chapelgoers, but his rhetorical ability in both languages and his transparent sincerity and radicalism allowed him to reach out far beyond this narrowing community. If it is to be a 2 horse race again, we need someone, whether his son Gareth or someone else, to have that effect.
Have the Tories selected a candidate here yet ?
Plaid are very strong in the Conwy Valley . I reckon its between Lab and PC with the Cons third.
Plaid held the Conwy assembly seat from 1999 – 2003.
While they are still relatively stong in the assembly, I would expect this to be a fight between Labour and the Tories.
The revised seat also includes much of the existing Tory held Clwyd West.
No way is this a fight between Labour and Plaid with Tories in third. I reckon this will be a Tory gain at the next election. Plaid did well in the Assembly because of a local candidate and a high profile campaign but they won’t be able to tansfer that into votes at the general election. If this seat had been around back inthe 70′s/80′s it would probably have been the safest Tory seat in Wales or up there with 1 or 2 others. Labour and Plaid will tustle for second place to the Tories. But they need to find a candidate soon, it’s getting quite late considering what a wonderful opportunity this is for them.
The high Lib Dem vote in Conwy was entirelly personal being connected to Lord Roberts (Rev Roger Roberts) – an excellent local candidate who despite having the local connections and running rings around his opponents in debates always fell short of capturing this seat
With this being squeezed and Plaid being the party of the national assembly this really could go to Plaid, Labour or the Tories, the latter of whom will be handicapped as the last Tory MP for Conwy for Sir Wyn Roberts, whose record as an MP was quite frankly shameful.
If this seat were in England it would be a Tory banker
I always thought that Sir Wyn (as he was) was a popular local M.P. At least I never remember anyone describing his record as shameful and I lived in the constituency at the time. In fact, interms of the Welsh language and culture he probably achieved more that any other Welsh M.P. before or since i.e. S4C, the Welsh Language Act etc. which he championed heavily.
I actually think government will handicap Plaid in this seat as they won a lot of votes from people who didn’t want Labour and jumping in to bed with them was not what many people who voted Plaid round Aberconwy wanted. Any protest will probably head towards the Libs and Tories and with the Libs now being so weak, the Tories probably stand to gain a lot more votes.
To be fair Matt I think Sir Wyn was a fairly effective MP when first elected – but by the 1990s he was well past his prime as an effective representative of the people of Conwy – showcased by his refusal to even speak during the debate on the 1993 floods that had wrecked so many homes in the area.
I was always a Roger Roberts man myself
Peter Crerer is wrong there is none of the former Clwyd West in this seat.
The Libs got less than 10% in the assembly election. 9,000 votes could well win the seat…PLaid did well to get 7,900 in the assembly seat. With a constantly improving organisation we can win it in a tight fight for westminbster though much will depend on who our candidate and who the Labour candidate is.
I’m sorry Mark, but I have to say that even with an optimistic Plaid viewpoint, I doubt whether they can win this one. I honestly feel it’s complete wishful thinking. Plaid will be too busy trying to win back Ynys Mon and make sure they take Arfon to really concentrate on a seat that they can’t really win. Plaid support will not be anywhere near where it was in the Assembly elections due to various factors that I’m sure you’re only too aware of.
The Candidates page for Wales on the Conservative website shows Guto Bebb as being selected as their candidate here.
Well Matt guess we will wait and see. However there are plenty of Plaid people who think we can get close to this seat and maybe win on a good day.
Plaid’s campaigning is improving constantly and Gareth Jones has a growing media profile particularly on the broadcast media.
When I was predicting a comfortable Plaid win in the assembly elections lots of people claimed I was over optimistic yet gareth won fairly easily. The issues that fueled Gareths victory have not gone away and will give us a very strong platform. Should be fun
I CAN SEE THIS SEAT A TORY GAIN AT THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION ALONG UP WITH CARDIFF NORTH BUT CONSERAVTIVES WILL END UP WITH 5 MPS NEXT TIME IN WALES GAIN 2 AND HOLD THE OTHER 3 AND MISS OUT ON VALE OF GLAMORGAN, VALE OF CLWYD, DELYN, BRECON & RADNORSHIRE AND PEMBROKESHIRE SOUTH.
A TORY GAIN THIS TIME!
LABOUR MUST BE WORRIED?
Well clearly Kevin it would be foolish for us in the Labour Party not to “worry” when we have such a tiny notional majority. It is a difficult seat for Labour to hold but if current trends continue no Tory gain from Labour can be classed as certain.
I think it depends on who those people who voted Plaid in the Assembly elections vote for
As Plaid are to the left of the Labour Party it might surprise some that all evidence reveals that these people are actually more likely to vote Tory than Labour
Too close to call although the Tories should really win here in one of the more English and affluent Noth Wales constituencies
In this seat, Plaid voters tend to be rather right wing (though perhaps not *quite* as right-wing as the AM they elected… who has a large personal vote in and around (traditionally Tory) Llandudno).
A couple of generations back, this one have been one hell of a Tory stronghold.
The loss of Bangor will cost Labour this seat.
I think that it is true that those who Plaid in this seat are generally fairly to the right. They consist in the main of farmers and people living in the Conwy Valley who have small-c conservative values. It is people like this that I suspect will be alienated by the Cardiff coalition and will probably have turned against Plaid somewhat. Moreover, without the personal vote of the Plaid AM and the added impetus of a Westminster election I suspect the Tories will vote for their party. The AM’s status as Councillor for Craig y Don meant that ward voted heavily for him, whereas it has been traditionally very Conservative in national elections. If the Tories don’t win this one they really are in trouble. But I should imagine Bebb will be the first MP for the new Aberconwy.
well guys caution would be appropriate in the light of current polls. You MIGHT be right – but chicken-counting isn’t a good idea.It is also possible that Labour’s superiority in Bangor is sometimes exaggerated,too.
It is also possible that Labour’s superiority in Bangor is sometimes exaggerated,too.
The eastern half of Bangor (including Maesgeirchen; the third largest council estate in Wales) is working class and votes Labour (local elections are sometimes more mixed, but then local elections in North Wales are always a little odd and depend on personal votes to an astonishing extent; even in a city like Bangor). The western half is middle class (public sector middle class; this is where Bangor Uni and Ysbyty Gwynedd are) with a large student population and is more political mixed, but leans towards Labour (or at least to Betty Williams) in Westminster elections. These days it’s probably as bad for the Tories as the east of the city.
Btw, it isn’t just Bangor that’s leaving this seat; the area around Bethesda (where the only parties that anyone ever votes for (only a slight exaggeration) are Labour and Plaid) is going as well.
Although clearly Labour do not win every vote in Bangor I don’t think you can exaggerate the fact that it was their strongest area percentage-wise in the old Conwy seat and Alun’s analysis is correct I would say. I would imagine that Llandudno (probably) voted Tory in 2005 as did places like Deganwy and Penrhyn Bay (which is Llandudno anyway). Pen and Llanfair are pretty strongly Labour with the junction Labour but not overwhelmingly so and Conwy has votes for everyone.
Alun, I am sure you are more up to date than I am on voting behaviour in Bangor, but I think your generalised split into “west” and “east” Bangor is a fair bit off the mark. In “west” for instance , what about the huge swathes of Council estate (or ex) in Coed Mawr, Maes Tryfan, loads of smaller properties along the Caernarfon Road, and a considerable amount up Penrhos Road behind the railway station? And in “east”, much of Upper Bangor and the area down towards Bangor Pier is what could be described as “middle class”. Of course you are right about voting the person in local govt elections, although I challenge you to find anywhere of Bangor’s size that doesn’t follow that model. I appreciate, the bigger the place, the less personal connection voters feel with the candidates, but when all said and done, Bangor, although a city, is only the size of a middle sized market town!
We have spoken many times on this thread and on Arfon, about Rev Roger Roberts and his charismatic style, and going back a few years, Liberal / Lib Dem influence in the city (which I don’t think was localised in any particular part of Bangor) was quite large. The return of a candidate to galvanise that could well see a large move back to that.
but I think your generalised split into “west” and “east” Bangor is a fair bit off the mark. In “west” for instance , what about the huge swathes of Council estate (or ex) in Coed Mawr, Maes Tryfan, loads of smaller properties along the Caernarfon Road, and a considerable amount up Penrhos Road behind the railway station? And in “east”, much of Upper Bangor and the area down towards Bangor Pier is what could be described as “middle class”.
I said “west” and “east” because I was being lazy. It’s more a diagonal line than a straight one (Coed Mawr is o/c further west than Upper Bangor, but not if you tilt the map to make approximate geographical descriptions easier). It is also a huge generalisation (but that much was obvious).
I posted this on Clwyd West but thought I may as well pop it in here too for what it’s worth.
It’s another area that shows how Clwyd West and Aberconwy are very socially similar. Probably more so than any other 2 seats in North Wales. Both have a mix of main seaside resort (Llandudno/Colwyn Bay), work-a-day industrial suburb (Junction/Mochdre), posh suburbs (Deganwy and Penrhyn Bay/ Rhos on Sea and Upper Colwyn Bay), mixed 2nd largest town (Conwy/Abergele), a couple of slightly run down seaside villages (Penmaenmawr and Llanfairfechan/ Towyn and Kinmel Bay) and a rural area with a quite Welsh-speaking market town (Llanrwst/ Ruthin). I think that these evident similarities will be reflected directly in the vote and both will be Tory. The main difference is that Aberconwy is a bit more Welsh-speaking and thus will have a slightly higher Plaid vote.