Aberconwy
2010 Results:
Conservative: 10734 (35.82%)
Labour: 7336 (24.48%)
Liberal Democrat: 5786 (19.31%)
Plaid Cymru: 5341 (17.82%)
UKIP: 632 (2.11%)
Christian: 137 (0.46%)
Majority: 3398 (11.34%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 9119 (31.5%)
Conservative: 8875 (30.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 5733 (19.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 4186 (14.4%)
Other: 1080 (3.7%)
Majority: 243 (0.8%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 9398 (27.9%)
Labour: 12479 (37.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 6723 (20%)
Plaid Cymru: 3730 (11.1%)
Green: 512 (1.5%)
UKIP: 298 (0.9%)
Other: 517 (1.5%)
Majority: 3081 (9.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 8147 (23.7%)
Labour: 14366 (41.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5800 (16.9%)
Plaid Cymru: 5665 (16.5%)
UKIP: 388 (1.1%)
Majority: 6219 (18.1%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10085 (24.3%)
Labour: 14561 (35%)
Liberal Democrat: 12965 (31.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2844 (6.8%)
Referendum: 760 (1.8%)
Other: 345 (0.8%)
Majority: 1596 (3.8%)
Boundary changes: underwent major changes in the boundary review to bring it in line with the preserved Welsh county boundaries. Conwy lost Bangor to the new
Profile: Aberconwy consists of the town of Conwy itself, the Victorian seaside resort of Landudno and the Conwy Valley, including Llanrwst and Betws-Y-Coed. Prior to 1997 the seat had been held by the Conservative party for 27 years. After the retirement of Wyn Roberts in 1997 Labour won it from third place. In the 1999 Welsh assembly elections the seat was a surprise win for Plaid, but was won again by Labour in 2003, with Plaid a close second. The removal of Labour voting Bangor under the new boundaries once again makes the seat a prime target for the Tories.
Current MP: Guto Bebb (Conservative) born 1968, Wrexham. Educated at the University of Wales. Partner in an Economic Development Consultancy. A former Plaid Cymru constituency chairman he defected after being ousted as local chair for his opposition to the single currency. Contested Ogmore by-election 2002, Conwy in 2003 Welsh Assembly elections, Conwy 2005.
Guto Bebb (Conservative) born 1968, Wrexham. Educated at the University of Wales. Partner in an Economic Development Consultancy. A former Plaid Cymru constituency chairman he defected after being ousted as local chair for his opposition to the single currency. Contested Ogmore by-election 2002, Conwy in 2003 Welsh Assembly elections, Conwy 2005.
Ronnie Hughes (Labour) Conwy councillor and former leader of the council. Former Aberconwy councillor.
Mike Priestley (Liberal Democrat) Born 1966, Colwyn Bay. Educated at Ysgol Aberconwy. Royal mail delivery office manager. Conwy councillor.
Phil Edwards (Plaid Cymru) Educated at Ysgol Y Gader. Former policeman. Contested Clwyd West in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.
Michael Wieteska (UKIP) Born 1945, Salford. Educated at North Carolina College of Theology. Pastor.
Louise Wynne Jones (Christian Party) 2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 55388
Male: 48.1%
Female: 51.9%
Under 18: 20.3%
Over 60: 28.8%
Born outside UK: 3.3%
White: 99%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 77.6%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 18.8%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.7%
Owner-Occupied: 73.2%
Social Housing: 12% (Council: 7.7%, Housing Ass.: 4.3%)
Privately Rented: 11.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 16%
Oh god! You’re not still flogging this Mike Priestly dead horse are you Conway lad.
When he comes in fourth, what will the excuse be then I wonder? “He would have won if not for the voters”
Shaun, Please try not to be offensive and partisan.
Lib dems are a dead horse here, end of.
More surprising is the betting odds, seem to suggest the tories will come third unless they’re rigged?.
PC 4/7
Lab 5/4
Con 12/1
LD 125/1
All the other odds seem correct for the welsh seats but this one sttod out.
Bryn, please try not to be so pompous and humourless.
Bryn, Conwy Lad has a history of ramping up LD candidates which is invariably followed by that candidate being trounced. Shaun no doubt is partisan, but please don’t go telling me that Conwy Lad is somehow unbiased! The odds are interesting bearing in mind the poor PC showing in the polls, but this seat does behave in somewhat surprising ways at times. That will, however, NOT extend to the LDs being anywhere near.
You should have read the Daily Post several days ago.
The turnout could be higher in some constituencies this year. There is not much visible campaigning going on in some constituencies, but the word is that Lib dems are concentrating on Aberconwy.
‘That will, however, NOT extend to the LDs being anywhere near.’
Bryn is right in that thre Lib Dems are campaigning hard here
I was in the area just last week and can testify that there were an abundance of Mike Priestly campaign posters all around the constituency
Obviously this doesn’t mean they’ll win, or even come close for that matter, but they are making the effort – and cannot be dismissed with such certainty
It surprises Barnaby why someone with such a visible pressence in their local party would take up any opportunity to gang up up with right-wing Tories in their regular and increasingly arrogant dismissal of people who dare to come on this site and think differently than they do
After reading Barnabys comments I think I will put some each way bets on the Lib Dems In Wales. How much should I invest?
Once again it seems we are back to measuring a candidates success based on how many posters they have out, Tim.
I have never denied that the Lib Dems are working the seat hard. Given how close they have come here in the distant past I’m not surprised.
But thats quite a different thing from saying that they stand much of a chance of winning. I’m afraid their star has passed for the time being here.
I did not realise that Barnaby had been counting the posters displayed in this constituency.
Posters tell you precisely nothing other than the party responsible for putting them up has been working hard. I gave up counting them years ago. For example, if you went by posters last year you would have thought that the Lib Dems were pushing Labour hard in Brent North, with the Tories nowhere – but of course that is nothing like what happened. It would also have told you that Labour would thrash the Conservatives in Hammersmith, though as we know it was a closely-contested marginal. And so on, and so on. The LDs are very unpopular and, mark my words, will not do well here.
What evidence have you got for making that suggestion?
‘But thats quite a different thing from saying that they stand much of a chance of winning. I’m afraid their star has passed for the time being here.’
It would certainly seem that way – and your above post is a lot more sensible in both tone and content than that which preceeded it
I remember arguing with someone on this very thread who would not accept the suggrestion that the Lib Dems might beat Plaid into third place in the general election and yet it happened
Of course we all know a lot has changed between then and now but the Lib Dems are still capable of pulling off the odd surprise (as they have done in by-elections at local level) and as someone who has just spent the past part of a week in the constituency, Mike Priestly is indeed held in quite high regards, and with the other three main parties allhaving a core vote, this is one of the tightest and dofficult to predict races in the principality
Trying to second guess the electorate here is a thankless task
What evidence Bryn? Knowledge of the history of the seat, opinion polls, stuff like that……….
At the General Election 2010 Plaid ran a concentrated and costly campaign. This time round it is nothing like that. Furthermore in Gareth Jones they had an excellent and well known local candidate. This time round it’s not anything like that. In 2010 Plaid ridiculed the Lib dems but Mike Priestley beat them !
At local and Assembly elections the electors in Aberconwy back the best local and most effective candidate. Surely no one will argue that that candidate in Lib Dem Mike Priestley !
Bryn,
Bookies don’t offer each-way bets on individual seats.
Keep your money in your pocket.
As someone who also ‘spent the past part of a week’ in the constituency, I can say that the most of the houses that displayed LibDem posters are the self same houses that have done so since at least 1992. They didn’t win then and they are unlikely to now.
The lib vote just isn’t what it was here now, especially as Conwy doesn’t exist anymore and they don’t have the Bangor Labour vote to mop up anymore.
I find it highly unlikely that Plaid will win now and I think the bookies have made an error with that one. Plaid nationally aren’t fareing great and their candidate here just doesn’t have the profile of their former one. I am convinced only Labour or the Tories will win here.
Have the parties booked any big advertising hoarding sites in this constituency? I have seen a Plaid Cymru advert which attacks the Labour record.
The other advantage held by the Lib Dem candidate is that he was also the candidate 12 months ago, that is worth one thousand votes for starters.
At the last Assembly election Gareth Jones was nominated as “Plaid Cymru and Save Llandudno Hospital” candidate ! No mention of saving Llandudno Hospital in the description on the ballot paper of Iwan Huws the new Plaid canidate. How much difference will this make ?
More Tory Posters around than any of others. They are fighting this with some real purpose. She is fit candidate with good amount of personal support.
Just had the Conservative Candidate and her team here. Seems to be a popular young lady.
On my count twice as many Priestley Posters as Finch-Saunders ! But still too close to call !!
Conwy Lad –
“At local and Assembly elections the electors in Aberconwy back the best local and most effective candidate. Surely no one will argue that that candidate in Lib Dem Mike Priestley !”
That’s canvassing in my book. Leave it out.
Have a look at the Daily Post today. A massive row has broken out about the veracity of election leaflets.
I saw that, Bryn, presumably Labour has now withdrawn the leaflets?
Posters dont translate to votes………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… sorry life support went dead with excitement of these elections
Conservatives gained the seat.
Plaid Cymru vote dropped, with all 3 other parties benefitting about equally. Still a three-way rather than four-way marginal, though.
Bryn and Conwy Lad, are you around to discuss the result?
‘Bryn and Conwy Lad, are you around to discuss the result?’
Their comments would be welcome but in mitigation (albeit it very slight) they will point to the fact that of all the four main parties, the Lib Dems had the greatest increase in their vote share of 5% – which whilst modest at best was in stark contrast to the rest of the UK where the Lib Dems vote dipped – massively
Excellent result here, I had never really expected the Tories to gain seats and certainly not become the main opposition party in Wales. The added pleasure of this seat actually denying Labour their overall majority makes it even better.
But where was Mike Priestley? I was looking forward and fully expecting him to win given what we were being told.
He held up the Lib Dem vote but did no better than that. Which was of course the best he was ever going to achieve.
As I remember saying a few weeks ago, if it hadn’t been for the voters, he would have won
Yes, I thought labour would get at least 2nd here but they messed up at the last minute.
Lovely to see Barnaby proved wrong one more time.
‘Lovely to see Barnaby proved wrong one more time.’
Labour won V of C by 17%.
I did get the LD vote right however, Priestley’s personal vote tookhim up by 4% on 2007 but no more.
It was difficult to be certain who’d win in Aberconwy. Really was too close to call. Ronnie Hughes might have won it for Labour but the new candidate and his last ,leaflet would, most certainly have been legally challenged if he had won – could as in Oldham East have led to his result being overturned – Labour should investigate this.
Gareth Jones’ retirement lost Plaid 12% – also the new candidate fought as plain “Plaid Cymru” without the “and save Llandudno Hospital” added to it.
Mike Priestley polled well in his home patch – added 5% to the 2007 Lib Dem score but was hampered by the dramatic UK wide decline in the Lib Dem vote. But he was one of a tiny number of Lib Dems in Wales who actually increased the vote.
So, the Tory won, and we wish her an effective term in Cardiff bay.
“Lovely to see Barnaby proved wrong one more time.”
He’s proved wrong a lot less often than some of those who only come here to talk up Lib Dem chances in all manner of strange seats.
And Barnaby’s predictions are generally much more reasonable than some others we could mention.
Barnaby has no reason to be humbled about getting Labour’s result here wrong.
Fair’s fair…at least Conway Lad has come back to face the music after his ridiculous predictions did not happen….unlike the remarkably similar GetReal in Liverpool.
Tories did very well here. Well done Shaun on your election result.
Tory Cllr Margaret Lyon has defected to Ind here. She’s been a Cllr for around 30 years.
Margaret Lyon ‘defected’ after she was deselected as a candidate by the Conservatives.