Aberavon
2010 Results:
Conservative: 4411 (14.25%)
Labour: 16073 (51.92%)
Liberal Democrat: 5034 (16.26%)
Plaid Cymru: 2198 (7.1%)
BNP: 1276 (4.12%)
UKIP: 489 (1.58%)
Independent: 919 (2.97%)
Others: 558 (1.8%)
Majority: 11039 (35.66%)
2005 Results:
Labour: 18077 (60%)
Liberal Democrat: 4140 (13.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 3545 (11.8%)
Conservative: 3064 (10.2%)
Other: 1278 (4.2%)
Majority: 13937 (46.3%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 2296 (7.6%)
Labour: 19063 (63.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 2933 (9.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 2955 (9.8%)
Other: 2943 (9.7%)
Majority: 16108 (53.4%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 2835 (7.9%)
Labour: 25650 (71.3%)
Liberal Democrat: 4079 (11.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 2088 (5.8%)
Referendum: 970 (2.7%)
Other: 341 (0.9%)
Majority: 21571 (60%)
No Boundary Changes: during the boundary review there were suggestions that the small size of the seat should be corrected by including the Upper Neath Valley wards, but these were eventually rejected.
Profile: An industrial seat in South Wales, situated at the mouth of the River Afon (or Avon, the origin of the name). The seat largely consists of the town of Port Talbot, but also includes the Afan Valley, the huge Corus steelworks to the South of the town, the oil refinery and the new Baglan Bay power station. Aberavon has been represented by the Labour party since 1922, most famously by Ramsay MacDonald during his first term as Prime Minister. It remains a solid Labour bastion.
Current MP: Hywel Francis(Labour) born 1946. Married with 3 children. Educated at Whitchurch Grammar and the University of Wales. His doctorate is in History, on the Welsh international brigades in the Spanish Civil War. Worked as a Professor of Continuing Education at the same University from 1972-1999.First elected in 2001. Main interests are steel and carers/disability. In 2004 successfully passed Carers Equal Opportunities Act as a Private Members Bill (more information at They work for you)
Caroline Jones (Conservative)Hywel Francis(Labour) born 1946. Married with 3 children. Educated at Whitchurch Grammar and the University of Wales. His doctorate is in History, on the Welsh international brigades in the Spanish Civil War. Worked as a Professor of Continuing Education at the same University from 1972-1999.First elected in 2001. Main interests are steel and carers/disability. In 2004 successfully passed Carers Equal Opportunities Act as a Private Members Bill (more information at They work for you)Keith Davies (Liberal Democrat)
Paul Nicholls Jones (Plaid Cymru) Contested Cynon Valley 1984 by-election as an Independent, Rhondda 1992Joe Callan (UKIP) 
Kevin Edwards (BNP) Area sales manager. Contested Wales in 2009 European election.Captain Beany (New Millenium Bean)Andrew Tutton (Independent)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 63150
Male: 48.3%
Female: 51.7%
Under 18: 22.3%
Over 60: 24.2%
Born outside UK: 1.9%
White: 98.8%
Asian: 0.4%
Mixed: 0.4%
Other: 0.2%
Christian: 72.4%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 11%
No Qualifications 16-74: 41.5%
Owner-Occupied: 69.9%
Social Housing: 20.9% (Council: 17.6%, Housing Ass.: 3.2%)
Privately Rented: 5.4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.1%
LAB 11,500
You’re right Doktorb, I was conscious of that. By no means do I want to do that. However, doing more in one go and cutting down the number of ‘runs’ I do should keep this to a minimum.
Don’t mun Shaun – choose the 100 most nmarginal and make a competition of it….
The best of British to Mr Edwards.
You are all forgetting the Euro result.
The lothing for the gravy train.
and 70% have made their minds up already
Valley Boy
Which valley seat do you think will Labour lose first?
Paul, I hope you have a Brian Hancock experience.
All Shauns predictions are suddenly out of date.
Paul.
I have to agree with you. That 70% will likely vote for a party untainted by corruption.
Labour = 11,500
Lib Dems = 11600
There needs to be a Law passed pretty quick to prevent any one person who has been elected as an MEP standing for the Welsh Assembly.
Why? The electorate vote for the party. Next on the list and all that. Or is it a case of sour grapes?
Personally, I can’t see why sitting representatives should not be completely free to stand for any other non-conflicting elected body. If the electorate are happy for them to do two jobs, I don’t really see why the law has to go jumping in to stop them.
Lab hold maj 10,000
Lab Hold
Maj 11 200
Not even worth giving the number of Cymraeg speaker? You provincial sais!
Lab maj 12,000
With 2 days to go I have decided to make predictions of the winner in every seat except Northern Ireland. I haven’t got time to predict a precise majority in many seats.
LAB HOLD.
oh, except I shall miss out my own seat of Richmond Park if you don’t mind!
I can’t imagine why you’d choose to miss out Richmond Park Barnaby.
Yes, go on Barnaby. I did Stoke remember!!!
Am starting off with my comments for the Welsh Assembly elections next year.
In the assembly elections this will be a labour hold with a smaller majority.
I agree that it will be a Labour hold, but with an INCREASED majority surely???
Isn’t it a bit soon to start predicting Welsh assembly seats? We don’t know how UK politics is going to work out yet. Until parliament agreesa fixed term, Its still a possibility we could have another general election before then.
Sorry to start off by stating the obvious, but Welsh Assembly 2011: Labour Hold
I’m not able to give predictions for the exact majorities though because I can’t remember off the top of my head what the last results were.