Redditch
2010 Results:
Conservative: 19138 (43.48%)
Labour: 13317 (30.25%)
Liberal Democrat: 7750 (17.61%)
BNP: 1394 (3.17%)
UKIP: 1497 (3.4%)
Green: 393 (0.89%)
English Democrat: 255 (0.58%)
Christian: 101 (0.23%)
Independent: 100 (0.23%)
Others: 73 (0.17%)
Majority: 5821 (13.23%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 18276 (43.6%)
Conservative: 16327 (39%)
Liberal Democrat: 5876 (14%)
Other: 1437 (3.4%)
Majority: 1948 (4.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15296 (38%)
Labour: 18012 (44.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5602 (13.9%)
UKIP: 1381 (3.4%)
Majority: 2716 (6.7%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 14415 (38.9%)
Labour: 16899 (45.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 3808 (10.3%)
UKIP: 1259 (3.4%)
Green: 651 (1.8%)
Majority: 2484 (6.7%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 16155 (36.1%)
Labour: 22280 (49.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 4935 (11%)
Referendum: 1151 (2.6%)
Other: 227 (0.5%)
Majority: 6125 (13.7%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Karen Lumley (Conservative) born 1964, Barnsley. Educated at Rugby High School. Company secretary. Former Wrexham councillor. Former Redditch councillor. Contested Delyn 1997, 1999 Welsh Assembly elections, Redditch 2001, 2005.
Karen Lumley (Conservative) born 1964, Barnsley. Educated at Rugby High School. Company secretary. Former Wrexham councillor. Former Redditch councillor. Contested Delyn 1997, 1999 Welsh Assembly elections, Redditch 2001, 2005.
Jacqui Smith(Labour) born 1962, Malvern. Educated at Dyson Perrins High School and Oxford University. Economics teacher. Contested Mid Worcestershire in 1992. First elected as MP for Redditch in 1997. Junior minister in the department for Education and Employment 1999-2001, Minister of state for health 2001-2003, Minister of state at the DTI 2003-2005, Minister of State for Education 2005-2006, Chief Whip 2006-2007. In a surprise promotion she was appointed as Home Secretary in Gordon Brown`s first cabinet in 2007, but in 2009 stepped down, having become embroiled in the scandal over election expenses, including her husband claiming for two pornographic movies (more information at They work for you)
Nicholas Lane (Liberal Democrat) Born Solihull. Educated at Brisol University. Barrister.
Kevin White (Green)
Anne Davis (UKIP) born Redditch. Former Redditch councillor.
Andy Ingram (BNP)
Vincent Schittone (English Democrat)Scott Beverley (Christian Party) 
Paul Swansborough (Independent) Derek Fletcher (Nobody)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84115
Male: 49.3%
Female: 50.7%
Under 18: 23.9%
Over 60: 16.8%
Born outside UK: 4.6%
White: 95.1%
Black: 0.8%
Asian: 2.5%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 75.5%
Muslim: 2.2%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 14.6%
No Qualifications 16-74: 30.4%
Owner-Occupied: 71.7%
Social Housing: 21.5% (Council: 18.1%, Housing Ass.: 3.5%)
Privately Rented: 4%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.6%
In Bromsgrove from 1950, although part of what is now Reddicth was in Warwickshire until 1964 (and would therefore have been in Stratford on Avon until 1974)(all of Redditch was in Warwickshire until the mid-19th century).
From 1918 to 1950 the Worcestershire part of Redditch would have been in the Kidderminster division with the Warwickshire section in Warwick and Leamington. Prior to that the Worcestershire section was in Worcestershire Eastern with the Warwickshire section in Stratford on Avon.
I feel as a constituent of Jacqui Smith, the Lib Dems will gain a lot of traditional Labour voters. Especially in Callow Hill, were I am from.
What a mealy mouthed “apology” this women has issued over the issue of the vast sum of money she screwed out of the hard working British taxpayers. She wouldn’t have apologised if it hadn’t been forced upon her anyway, and now she has the gall to claim “victim” status in all this. So typical of a woman in a tight spot resulting from her own irresponsibility. To think she was Home Secretary is mind boggling, but hey ho! – this is a Labour Government after all – for the next 200 days or so at the very most. Both Smith and her Party will be well and truly out in the cold both in Redditch AND the country as a whole come next Spring. Oh what joy!
Goodbye Jacqui Smith. Lets hope you’ve used your expenses wisely and bought in a huge supply of bath plug’s. The dole que awaits.
I would expect Smith to announce she isn’t standing at the next GE at some stage between now and (presumably) next May.
In any event whether she stands or not this is a nailed on Tory gain surely, and probably with a decent majority.
If you lose your seat, you get severence pay for 6 months.
Anway, better to go down fighting.
Nothing is nailed on…..but really….
I think the Conservative majority could be rather larger than I thought – had expected a low swing until early this year, and a majority of only about 2,000.
Now I wonder whether it’ll be much of a contest, where some core Labour voters don’t turn out, or also vote for a few fringes.
So can see it being a majority of about 8/9,000, and a significantly bigger than average swing,
22,500
14,500
So basically those of us not favourably disposed to Ms Smith (which let’s face it is a far from exclusive group) have to choose whether it would be more fun to see her stand and face inevitable defeat at the next election, but with the knowledge that she will receive all the parachute payments due to defeated MPs. Or to see her forced out as Labour candidate, not getting the money, but us losing the pleasure of watching her moment of defeat live on the telly. Tough call, but I would sooner see her stand and fight, and lose.
I don’t particularly like seeing that, and actually had some time for Jacqui Smith until a few months ago,
(although I re-appraised my view from about the time of the raid on Damien Green)
but I think she’s now in a ridiculous position.
But she’s far from alone – and the whole thing is quite depressing really.
Basically, if this had been a bit more of a normal situation I could have seen her resisting the swing somewhat as Labour got some abstainers out, but now I think she’s likely to suffer from the reverse. It would be a bit like some of those seats in 1997 where the outgoing government was too weary fo fight.
I agree with JJB’s prediction of around 8000 to 9000 Con Majority if Jacqui stands again. If she does retire Labour should bring in a candidate ASAP for damage limitation. Can’t see Labour hold this though.
I deliberately didn’t watch that apology apart from when they showed a “clip” of it on the BBC Parliament/politics show update,
as I almost went bright red with embarrasment myself thinking about it.
I really doubt that the Tory majority will be that large Joseph, the maximum Tory majoirty I’ll predict is about 5500.
Christain is probably correct actually.
My revised prediction was on the basis of this thing degenerating into a non contest,
but I believe this issue will have faded somewhat.
In fairness, Jacqui Smith did ok on Question Time last night, and seemed able to speak more freely.
I agree with Joe, Jacqui did well on Question Time. It must have taken a lot of guts to go on Question Time of all programmes after what she’s been through.
Love her or hate her, you’ve got to admit she’s pretty resilient.
Yes – in fairness, she handled it pretty well.
Do the Lib Dems have a chance of pulling off a shock in Redditch does anyone think?
No I don’t.
Presumably Smith will lose quite a few votes – Lib Dems would more than likely gain some. I’ve also heard that Lumley the Tory isn’t particularly popular and a bit of a lightweight.
What are people’s predictions for percentage share for each party?
Cons 45%
Lab 38%
LD 14%
A 7% Conservative lead equates to only a 6% swing.
As polls suggest that the midlands swing is greater than UNS and there is also a ‘Smith factor’ then a Conservative margin of over 15% is likely.
The local election result here was:
Con 40.4%
Lab 19.2%
LD 16.8%
Dave, I daresy plenty of “lightweight” Labour candidates won in 1997, due to the national situation
I read an article stating that ”Jacqui Smith has written to Conservative Parliamentary Candidate for Redditch, Karen Lumley with key questions on the Conservatives’ policy on the Lisbon Treaty and also challenges Ms Lumley to respond to reports that David Cameron will pledge to repatriate powers from the EU, focusing on the Social Chapter.”
Wow!!! Love her or hate her, you’ve got to give her credit for persaverance!!! Smith is certainly not going wihtout a fight!!!!
Christian – I am not surprised in the slightest – now she is out of the Cabinet she has more time in Redditch, and of course, she doesn’t want to lose her job (with all its financial benefits). She will have to do more than write letters to Karen Lumley to hold on here though!
The former Mayor of Redditch Anne Davis, who served on Redditch Borough Council for 12 years, will stand for the United Kingdom Independence Party in the election after defecting from Labour.
http://www.ukip.org/content/latest-news/1325-exlabour-mayor-stands-for-ukip
What happened to Jonathan Oakton?
I understand that UKIP have a robust selection process and Mr Oakton declined to be interviewed and therefore, by virtue of default, was not selected as the UKIP candidate. That seems fair enough to me.
Have just got home from ther Liberal Democrats selection meeting. A formal announcement will be made shortly, but our candidate will be Nicholas Lane (not, as wrongly reported on wikipedia, the Mayor, Malcolm Hall).
Although Karen Lumley did poorly in 2005 (Conservative vote down).
However I think due to Jacqui Smith’s record and boundary changes, it will be third time lucky for Karen.
The UKIP candidate for Redditch is actually Anne Davis
Cons Gain= 3,500 maj
CON 7000
Here I think Shaun is nearer to the mark. I don’t see Jacqui Smith suffering an above-average swing but I certainly don’t see how she can survive either.
Here’s an opportunity to “declare” this seat, and contribute to the overall prediction for 2010
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/2010/01/i-undermentioned-hereby-give-notice.html
Con Gain
Maj 5100
BNP have selected Andy Ingram
Con maj 3,000
So often politicians jump ship when the tide is against them but I’m pleased Ms Smith has decided to fight on in Redditch.I feel she will be dissapointed at the end but admire her determination to achieve.Feel she will keep a loyal vote but the undecideds wont for her because change is on the agenda.Expect Redditch to be Tory on May 7th but maj to be 2000ish.
Jacqui Smith has been a huge supporter within Redditch for disabled people and their rights. What a lot of people dont see is the hard work she has put in to the region that is not in the media or in the public eye. I wish Mrs Smith the greatest of luck with the up and coming elections, she is a true fighter for real people.
Jacqui had lost this sometime ago, which is unfortunate as I believe the Conservative candidate is particularly weak this time around.
Lib Dems could have made real inroads had they chosen a candidate earlier… As it is Tory gain majority of around 4 000, I won’t be happy, but I wouldn’t have been happy with Jacqui either due to her civil liberties record as Home Sec.
CON GAIN
This wasn’t a surprise.
They were saying it looked close at the count, although it had gone Tory.
I actually thought this was a slightly poor Tory result.
It seemed Jacqui Smith lost a number of extra votes, but they got spread around,
and turnout was only slightly up, suggesting people thought she had little chance of making it into a contest.
But Redditch has produced these rather low swings for the last 4 elections, so maybe it’s a longer standing thing.
But the swing wasnt low?
Can’t help noticing that the Green candidate did very badly indeed with only 393 votes.
I was over-stating it.
The Tory share is around 5% below 1992, so it’s a slightly better than average performance.
But it wasn’t outstandingly good.
Jacqui Smith seems to be Andrew Neil’s regular guest on This Week.
She’s pretty good.
I think the Tories could hold on this May – just.
Very close.