Chesterfield
2010 Results:
Conservative: 7214 (15.74%)
Labour: 17891 (39.03%)
Liberal Democrat: 17342 (37.83%)
UKIP: 1432 (3.12%)
Green: 600 (1.31%)
English Democrat: 1213 (2.65%)
Independent: 147 (0.32%)
Majority: 549 (1.2%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Liberal Democrat: 21035 (46.6%)
Labour: 18462 (40.9%)
Conservative: 3784 (8.4%)
Other: 1838 (4.1%)
Majority: 2573 (5.7%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 3605 (8.2%)
Labour: 17830 (40.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 20875 (47.3%)
UKIP: 997 (2.3%)
Other: 814 (1.8%)
Majority: 3045 (6.9%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 3613 (8.1%)
Labour: 18663 (42%)
Liberal Democrat: 21249 (47.8%)
Other: 916 (2.1%)
Majority: 2586 (5.8%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 4752 (9.2%)
Labour: 26105 (50.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 20330 (39.6%)
Other: 202 (0.4%)
Majority: 5775 (11.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Toby Perkins (Labour) born 1970. Educated at Silverdale Comprehensive School. Former sales rep and recruitment manager. A qualified rugby coach, he now runs a rugby merchandising and equipment company. Chesterfield councillor.
Carolyn Abbott (Conservative) Contested Sheffield Heeley 2001, Barnsley East and Mexborough 2005.Toby Perkins (Labour) born 1970. Educated at Silverdale Comprehensive School. Former sales rep and recruitment manager. A qualified rugby coach, he now runs a rugby merchandising and equipment company. Chesterfield councillor.
Paul Holmes(Liberal Democrat) born 1957. Educated at Firth park Secondary and York University. Former teacher. Chesterfield councillor 1987-1995, 1999-2003. MP for Chesterfield since 2001. Work and pensions spokesman 2002-2005, chair of Lib Dem Parliamentary party 2005-2006, arts of culture spokesman 2006-2007, housing spokesman until December 2007 (more information at They work for you)Duncan Kerr (Green) David Phillips (UKIP)Ian Jerram (English Democrat)
John Daramy (Independent) Born London. Self employed businessman.2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 88747
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 21.4%
Over 60: 22.9%
Born outside UK: 2.6%
White: 98.1%
Black: 0.4%
Asian: 0.6%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.9%
Full time students: 2.1%
Graduates 16-74: 14.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 34.2%
Owner-Occupied: 66.6%
Social Housing: 25.9% (Council: 23.1%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 5.5%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.2%
“Yes , Kieran a 12 year spell is an aberration…”
Well, I suppose you could quibble with my use of the word “aberration” to describe such a period, but that is exactly what it represented. Across the country Conservative support in the mid 1990s declined to its absolute core. In Chesterfield the party was unable to recover from that nadir because of a basic lack of money and manpower, not because there existed a shortage of people in Chesterfield willing to contemplate voting Conservative.
Mark, the first time you raised the example of Manchester City Centre I chose ignore it, as a comparison between that ward and the likes of West here is patently absurd. However now you have chosen to use that example again I now see that your choice of that comparison provides a useful indication as to why your analysis of the political situation in Chesterfield is so deeply flawed.
You seem to view Chesterfield as being in some way similar to the likes of Sheffield, Manchester and Newcastle; places where Conservative representation disappeared and is unlikely to return any time soon, even in the most middle class of wards that formed the party’s last redoubts. The problem with that view as the middle class that inhabits wards like West and Walton in Chesterfield is not the urban intellectual, often public sector, middle class that inhabits the more leafy areas of the aforementioned cities, and that has proved particularly unresponsive to the Conservative message in recent years. The recovery in Conservative fortunes in Chesterfield evidenced by the last two rounds of elections in the town is therefore far from surprising, and there is good reason to believe that it will be an enduring one.
“I have never said the Libdems will be unaffected…”
You didn’t say the Lib Dems would be completely unaffected, but you did say that they would be unaffected in contests where the Tories are the main challengers. This assumption that the Lib Dems will be hurt less than the Tories by any public disquiet at the policies of the coalition is frankly bizarre, and not supported by any evidence. A more dispassionate assessment of the situation was penned by Sean O’Grady in the Indy a couple of weeks ago:
“The Lib Dems will soon be in the very unfamiliar position of being the subject of protest votes rather than the beneficiaries. Local elections, European elections and by-elections over the next few years will be disastrous for both parties as the public-spending cuts take hold. A cut is a cut whether the guy wielding the axe is wielding a yellow or a blue rosette”.
If anything the evidence available at the moment points to it being Lib Dem supporters rather than Tories that are more uneasy about the policies of the coalition. Not only has the Lib Dem score in the headline voting intention declined, but those Lib Dem voters that remain are less approving of the record of the coalition to date. Also the forthcoming Lib Dem conference looks set to provide an indication that the party’s activists are far from happy with some of the policies of the government of which their party is a part.
Even when the seemingly inevitable backlash against the tight spending policies of the current government comes along I would be surprised if Tory voters do not prove to be more loyal to their chosen party than Lib Dems. An awful lot of Tory voters will have voted that way because they actually believe that a reduction in the size of the public sector would be good for the country, even if there was not the current need to reduce the level of government borrowing. The same cannot be said of many LIb Dem voters.
No offence Kieran, but you’re becoming the Justin Hinchcliffe of Chesterfield. Have you considered twinning your Conservative association with Tottenham?
Nah, a misplaced comparison there Hemmelig. I reckon whenever I’ve made a prediction about Chesterfield in the past I’ve not done too badly. I called the Brim S by-election correctly and pointed to the very real possibility that Paul Holmes could lose here due to an increase in the Tory vote long before GE day (and had my words reproduced in Lib Dem reproduced in some Chesterfield Lib Dem campaign literature for my trouble). Fair does though I did say we’d get 20% here at the GE, which was a bit high.
I think anyone wanting to know about the state of play in Chesterfield won’t be led too far astray by my posts.
I agree with Keiran,this is the opportunity “small government” “individual responsibility” Conservatives have been waiting for.Its upto Cam to sell it otherwise the future is beyond grim.
A very unfair comparison I think
No offence….but….
I thought the Tory share rose here 7.3% – double the national increase.
If we’d had that we’d be in government properly
rather than arse licking the LDs to prop us up.
I agree. Justin thinks the Tories ought to be able to win Tottenham. Kieran has made no such absurd statements about Chesterfield, merely that there is some scope for Conservative recovery. The only parallel is that it could be argued that in both constituencies Tory activists might well consider that their efforts might be more fruitful elsewhere.
I see where you’re coming from Barnaby, but there are worthwhile and attainable objectives for the party to work towards here. Winning seats on the council and holding the balance of power certainly is (for what it’s worth if the last GE here had been a borough election conducted under list PR the outcome would have been 20 Labour councillors elected, 20 Lib Dems and 8 Tories). There is the 2013 county elections where any seats gained in Chesterfield would help the party to retain control of the county council in the face of any losses there might be elsewhere in Derbyshire. Also if the constituency boundaries were to be changed as per the propsals I’ve worked out (I am not sure how likely that is) Chesterfield would be in play from a Tory point of view.
On the subject of predictions I do think those who are active in a constituency and post on here about that constituency under their real name need to be cut a bit of slack. As my experience with Chesterfield Lib Dems has demonstrated (although a fat lot of good their literature featuring a version of my remarks did them in the end), posters of that type have exercise a degree of caution about what they say.
Now come on Kieran , get a grasp on reality , leave the wet dreams of gerrymandering the boundaries of Chesterfield so that the Conservatives can have a remote chance of winning the seat .
When was the last Conservative councillor actually elected in Chesterfield . I don’t know the answer except that it was before 1995 but how many years before ?
The last time Conservative councillors were elected in Chesterfield was 1991. I have already explained at length why the results of elections here prior to 2009 are of limited relevance when trying to predict what might happen here next year.
If you would care to look at my proposals for a Chesterfield, Dronfield & Wingerworth seat over on the NE Derbys thread you will see that they are perfectly sensible and would not represent a gerrymander. They would actually be very helpful to the Lib Dems in Chesterfield, so any Lib Dem supporters might be well advised not to label them in that way. As others have said on this thread, under the current boundaries (or any minor variation of them) the Lib Dems will have a hard task to unseat Toby Perkins any time in the near future.
Further to my answer to Marks’ question about the last time Conservative councillors were elected in Chesterfield (and just in case anyone is interested), here are the results from the last two occasions when that happened, and from when those councillors were defeated in 1995:
Walton and West 1987-1995
Walton 1987 1991 1995
Conservative 43.2% 55.5% (+12.3%) 31.9%(-23.6%)
Lib Dem 41.5% 28.9% (-12.6%) 43.8% (+14.9%)
Labour 15.1% 15.6% (+0.5%) 24.3% (+8.7%)
West
Conservative 52.6% 50.2% (-2.4%) 32.9% (-17.3%)
Lib Dem 30.6% 32.3% (+2.3%) 41.7% (+9.4%)
Labour 16.7% 17.6% (+0.9%) 25.4% (+7.8%)
As can be seen the Tory result in Walton in 1991 was better than in 1987, which is not necessarily what would be expected given that nationally the ‘87 locals saw a better Tory performance than the ‘91. The only other notable Tory performance from this period was a second place finish in Brockwell ward in 1987.
I’ve only just noticed the irony of a Richmond Labour guy (Barnaby Marder) questioning further up this thread whether the efforts of Chesterfield Tory activists might be more fruitfully employed elsewhere.
I think Barnaby did campaign in seats other than the one where he lives (eg neighbouring Hammersmith)
Yes Pete that is correct. I did do a little in Richmond, but went 7 times to Hammersmith and had the pleasure of attending the victory party! Quite a large number of other Richmond Park members also worked there, including some who are not normally active. I have previously, in similar vein, worked in Mitcham & Morden in 1997 (succesfully), Putney in 2001 (succesfully) and Putney again in 2005 (unsuccesfully). In 1992 I was in a safe Labour seat, Newham NE, so I worked in Ilford S next door which was a Labour gain from the Tories.
I would have worked in Brentford & Isleworth but in common with a number of other Labour Party members I preferred to work for a candidate other than Ann (or Alan) Keen.