Aldershot
2010 Results:
Conservative: 21203 (46.72%)
Labour: 5489 (12.09%)
Liberal Democrat: 15617 (34.41%)
UKIP: 2041 (4.5%)
Christian: 231 (0.51%)
Others: 803 (1.77%)
Majority: 5586 (12.31%)
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 18109 (44%)
Liberal Democrat: 11816 (28.7%)
Labour: 9183 (22.3%)
Other: 2040 (5%)
Majority: 6293 (15.3%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 20572 (42.7%)
Labour: 9895 (20.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 15238 (31.7%)
UKIP: 1182 (2.5%)
Other: 1254 (2.6%)
Majority: 5334 (11.1%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 19106 (42.2%)
Labour: 11391 (25.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 12542 (27.7%)
UKIP: 797 (1.8%)
Green: 630 (1.4%)
Other: 849 (1.9%)
Majority: 6564 (14.5%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 23119 (42.7%)
Labour: 13057 (24.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 16498 (30.5%)
Other: 1477 (2.7%)
Majority: 6621 (12.2%)
Boundary changes: on the old boundaries Aldershot had an electorate of over 79,000 and the three wards in the North of the constituency that comprised Yateley were consequently transferred to North East Hampshire. This is likely to increase the Conservative majority in Aldershot.
Profile: A seat firmly associated with the military, Aldershot contains the Aldershot Barracks, Farnborough Airfield and the headquarters of QinetiQ, the defence research company privatised in 2006. The military vote itself is over-estimated, although the Garrison is an important local employer. The seat is reliably Conservative, having returned a Conservative MP ever since its creation in 1918. Past MPs include the noted Parliamentary wit Julian Critchley, who represented the seat for 27 years.
Current MP: Gerald Howarth(Conservative) born 1947. Educated at Bloxton School and the University of Southampton. Married with three children. Prior to his election he worked as an international banker for the American International Bank and the European Arab Bank. He is a qualified pilot and his interests include aerospace and defence. Howarth is a trenchant right-winger, a former member of the Monday club, a member of the Freedom Association`s council and a founding member of the Thatcherite No Turning Back group. In the 1980s he successfully sued the BBC for accusing him of having links to the far-right. First elected for Cannock and Burntwood in 1983, he lost his seat in 1992 and was re-elected for Aldershot in 1997. He has been shadow minister for Defence since 2002 (more information at They work for you)
Gerald Howarth(Conservative) born 1947. Educated at Bloxton School and the University of Southampton. Married with three children. Prior to his election he worked as an international banker for the American International Bank and the European Arab Bank. He is a qualified pilot and his interests include aerospace and defence. Howarth is a trenchant right-winger, a former member of the Monday club, a member of the Freedom Association`s council and a founding member of the Thatcherite No Turning Back group. In the 1980s he successfully sued the BBC for accusing him of having links to the far-right. First elected for Cannock and Burntwood in 1983, he lost his seat in 1992 and was re-elected for Aldershot in 1997. He has been shadow minister for Defence since 2002 (more information at They work for you)
Jonathan Slater (Labour) Organiser for Martin Linton MP in Battersea during 2005 general election. Supported Alan Johnson MP in the 2007 Labour deputy leadership contest.
Adrian Collett (Liberal Democrat) born 1958. Educated at Salesian College, Farnborough. Hampshire County councillor since 1983. Former leader of Hart council. Contested Aldershot 1992, 1997, 2001, 2005.
Robert Snare (UKIP) Born 1932, Sheffield. Educated at Maidstone Grammar and RAF College Cranwell. Retired fighter pilot and civil aviation flight training manager.
Juliana Brimicombe (Christian Party) Gary Cowd (English Independence)2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 101364
Male: 50.7%
Female: 49.3%
Under 18: 23.9%
Over 60: 15.4%
Born outside UK: 8.1%
White: 95.7%
Black: 0.6%
Asian: 1.7%
Mixed: 1.1%
Other: 0.9%
Christian: 73.1%
Hindu: 0.6%
Muslim: 0.7%
Full time students: 2.5%
Graduates 16-74: 17.7%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.5%
Owner-Occupied: 74.2%
Social Housing: 14.4% (Council: 1.2%, Housing Ass.: 13.2%)
Privately Rented: 6.6%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 3.9%
I assume that Hampshire will more or less revert back to the 1997 – 2010 boundaries, with the exception that Portsmouth and Southampton may extend befond the city boundaries (therefore being more Conservative).
I also assume that with the retirement of James Arbuthnot that Damien Hinds will stand in the new Hants NE (that will include parts of the current East Hants) and George Hollingbery will stand in the new East Hants (that will include parts of Meon Valley).
Some years ago the splitting of the Isle of Wight would create a Lib Dem seat (and safe Lib Dem seat on 1983 and 1997 polling), but in todays context however the island was divided would create 2 Conservative constituencies.
Nevertheless the lesson of history is that the Isle of Wight can never be regarded as a safe seat.
The LDs may still have a fair chance of closely contesting one of the Isle of Wight seats depending on how they’re drawn.
2 Tory Cllrs have defected to UKIP on Rushmoor Council.
Due to the Aldershot Urban Extension (to be constructed on former MOD land between Farnborough and Aldershot) the new Wellington Ward will have just 3000 electors compared to an average of 5500 in the borough as a whole. This is to allow for the electorate to reach an average level by 2016, and by the next review it could be over 10,000.
The Conservatives’ performance in Aldershot seems to have been pretty awful since 1992, when the left-wing Julian Critchley attained a vote share in the high 50s if I remember correctly.
Their vote share dropped to 43% in 1997 and only rose to 47% in 2010 despite pretty favourable boundary changes.
Lib Dems have squeezed the relatively strong Labour vote down to 12%.
All this is quite counter-intuitive in what must be a very military-influenced constituency……it is a surprise that the right-wing Gerald Howarth has obviously not attained anything like the popularity of his predecessor despite the fact that his views ought to be much more in tune with this kind of seat than Julian Critchley’s.
Similarly the strength of the LDs is a puzzle in such a militaristic constituency (although they do hold nearby Portsmouth South). The seat is surrounded on all sides by neighbouring seats in which the Tories have recovered very strongly…on both the Surrey and Hampshire sides…yet their recovery here has been pretty non-existent in comparison.
I see Peter Dalek was re-elected without difficulty – the same doesn’t apply to the Lib Dems who were wiped out. I think it’s the first time in a few years that Labour has won seats in Farnborough as well as Aldershot.
If Labour pose a strong recovery here next time at the Lib Dems expense, then gerald Howarth could be looking at a majority of 10,000+
A terrible result for the LDs. I’m not sure when Labour last had seats in Farnborough – they used to win in Grange ward, probably until around the turn of the century (I could check I suppose), but it is certainly the case that the LDs (or Liberals/Alliance) have never been absent from Rushmoor council before – indeed for most of the time from the mid-80s until recently they were the second largest party (and briefly, in the late 90s, the largest party)