The euros results have reinforced indications from the polling and some bloggers own stated conclusions, that is that the SNP appear to be clearly able to beat the Labour party in the cenral belt- and this may help them come a close second (or maybe win) seats such as Kilmarnoch and Loudon from labour.

But as Paul explains the SNP have a tough fight on there hands as the only two ‘easy’ gains (if one can call them such) for them are Dundee West (from labour) and Ochil & South Perthshire (from labour)-v beyond that they are fighting from lower starting lines, or in the case of Argyl & Bute cases- they will suffer from unionist voting in the 3/4 way marginals.

From the electoral calculus Scottish calculator they will need more than 32% share if Scottish Labour hold above 28% share on the night- otherwise they are on target for a rather disapointing 6 holds and 2 gains. So it is a tough fight and as Paul pointed out they dont appear to as yet command a clear advantage in any one zone of combat to perhaps allow me for one to expect them to get any higher than 6/7 MPs on the night.

I think Salmond will be wanting to see how the polls settle over the summer, and, depending on timing, the outcome of Glasgow NE by-election.

If SNP win Glasgow NE, expect some triumphalism. But Salmond knows he cannot afford to appear arrogant in advance as not only would he look silly in the event of a Labour hold, it might even contribute to one.

As for SNP gains at the GE, the euro results were undoubtedly good, But, the raw national figures [SNP 320k; Lab 230k; Con 185k; LD 125k] do not tell the full story.

Since the results were declared by Council rather than constituency, we can’t be certain who won where (esp in places like Edinburgh), while the low turnout gives little assurance as to likely outcome at a GE.

However, the picture seems to be that the Lab vote fell most in areas where Lab were not in a straight battle with SNP. While the SNP will take comfort from having beaten Lab in so much of Scotland, apart from a few obvious targets – eg Dundee – the margins are not large enough to guarantee many additional seats.

More difficult for the SNP is the resilience of the Tory and LD votes outside the central belt. The fact that Lab vote has crumbled in these areas does not help the SNP who may well suffer from pro-union tactical voting at GE – esp in LD held Argyll and Gordon.

In essence, the SNP will be fighting two very different wars at the next election, and on neither front do they have an overwhelming advantage.

We may even see the SNP achieve in Scotland what the Tories did in England in 2005. Winning the most votes, but not the most seats, as Labour hold on in a dozen or more seats by a few thousand.

But surely 1974-1992 was a time when Scotland had less of a hysteria about voting Tory as opposed to the post 1997 environment?

In Oct 1974 the SNP majorities fell in some of the seats they had gained in Feb 1974 (despite in increase from 22% to 30% in Scotland).

In 1992, the Conservatives reduced the SNP majorities in 2 of the 3 seats they had lost to the SNP in 1987.

In 2005 the Conservatives more than halved the 2001 notional SNP majority in Perthshire North.

East Renfrew,
Edinburgh (South & South West)
Berwickshire Roxbrugh and Selkirk
dumfries and galloway
clydesdale tweedesdale and lauderdale (Mundells seat)
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Aberdeen South

all our most winnables and the euros election indicates that come the westminster general election scottish tories are in line to take them.

This in my book is a good tory recovery; especially as Cochrine explained the UKIP vote is almost certainly tory voters- and as Cochrine said they will probably vote tory in westminster elections.

Compared to 2004, allowing for boundary changes, the Tories have ‘lost’ the following seats which they won in 2004:
Argyll and Bute (falling to 3rd place),
Gordon,
Stirling, and
Edinburgh South West.

And this with UKIP (whose voters presumably vote Tory in other elections) slipping back, too.

Worst result ever for Labour,
2nd best result for SNP,
2nd worst result for Tories,
Median (4th best/worst) result for Lib Dems,
Best ever (just, of 6 contested) for the Greens,
2nd best ever (of 4 contested) for UKIP.