176 Responses to “Scotland European Elections”

1. deanthetory

   Paul H-J has it right, the need to be wary of regional breakdowns of UK wide polls is essential. The Scottish samples tend to be too small, and occasionally entirely unweighted (and even then you cant always find the information).

   2:2:2 is my bet, but I would not be surprised with a 2:2:1:1, but that would mean an underperforming Scottish Conservative Party, and there doesnt seem to be any indication of such a poor % share showing in any major poll (certaintly that I’ve seen).

   As for Sasha’s claim for 35 SNP MPs, I’ll give my right foot to charity if they do that unbelievably well! Scotland is simply too tight, anc changable to predict much at present, however the last weighted Scots Sample I’ve heard of placed the breakdown between the parties on an (unbelievable) Lab: 28%, SNP: 29%, Tory: 29%, Lib: 10%- can anyone tell me if that was a regional breakdown, or a reliable indicator?

   Either way it means the top three Scots parties are all above 20% -which makes for an interesting G.E. (the Euro’s will be a good indicator of the current shape of party standings).

   May 18th, 2009 at 1:28 pm
2. Tam

   Dean’s spot on with his post right up to the last point – the Euros are a useful way of seeing the base number of votes for each party, but I wouldn’t read too much into them. Although if one party does particularly well/or badly in terms of the number of votes, then obviously that is a helpful indication

   May 18th, 2009 at 1:35 pm
3. Peter Crerar

   I recall that in 1989 Labour had a poll lead of over 15% in the run up to the Euro’s but the surge to the
   the Greens (a left wing party) reduced Labours poll lead to virtually nothing.

   It seems that UKIP could do the same to the Tories in 2009 but this is more likely to be 26 to 22%, still the worst Labour share of the vote in a national election ever.

   May 18th, 2009 at 1:52 pm
4. David McEwan Hill

   I have a space on my mantlepiece for Dean’s right foot.

   We are facing a tipping point of huge significance.
   The fallout from a collapsed Labour vote has enormous significance in Scotland in constitutional terms as it appears to me that the SNP is in the early stages of replacing Labour and the Libdems.
   I have never seen polls quite so unanimously bad for a major party in the UK .
   The thin veneer of a respected and responsible UK executive and Parliament and a stable and prosperous UK state has been destroyed. These have been the stuff of unionism.
   Where will we be a year from now?

   May 18th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
5. benjamin

   People really do seem to forget that Westminster elections are not Holyrood elections.

   35 seats is over half the total allocated to Scotland – the SNP didn’t even acheive that under PR for a Scottish Parliament election.

   If the SNP did really well in their campaign and targeting strategy in 2010 they might come away with 10-12 MPs – that would be a great feat for them under FPTP.
   15 would represent a massive inroad into some really really BIG Labour majorities and anything beyond that is fanciful.

   May 18th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
6. Matt

   I think realistically, the absolute most the SNP could win would be the following;

   Banff & Buchan, Moray, Angus, Perth & N Perthshire, Dundee East, Western Isles, Glasgow East (all SNP held)

   Stirling, Ochil & S Perthshire, Glenrothes, Aberdeen North, Inverness Nairn Badenoch & Strathspey, Edinburgh East, Argyll & Bute, Kilmarnock & Loudoun, Dundee West.

   That would give 16 SNP seats.

   May 18th, 2009 at 9:05 pm
7. benjamin

   I would say that they could win their current 7 (including Glasgow E)

   Ochil, Dundee W, Edinburgh E, Argyll and potentially Glasgow NE (special circumstances!) this time – maybe Kilmarnock or East Lothian – the others I don’t think are worth their while.

   If they were to start working now then I agree that several of those you mention are good bets for 2014 – also the two seats in the far South West – Dumfries and Galloway and the current Tory seat.

   May 18th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
8. Joe James B

   Interesting that Benjamin conveniently forgets the Lib Dem seats that are vulnerable to the SNP.

   May 19th, 2009 at 9:49 am
9. Paul H-J

   Matt, Ben, JJB

   One seat none of you mentioned is one currently held in Holyrood but not at Westrminster – Gordon.

   Otherwise, I agree with Matt’s likely targets – plus Dumfries & Galloway as mentioned by Ben.

   Ben you really should include Inverness, as well as Stirling which happens to also be a Con target. On teh other hand David Mundell’s seat is not an obvious SNP target – certainly no more so than the other Borders seat, currently held by LD but liekly to go blue.

   JJB – be fair, Ben acknowledged Arygll is at risk. Apart from Inverness and Gordon, I don’t see any of the other LD seats as being lost to the SNP (as opposed to Con) in the near future.

   May 19th, 2009 at 11:45 am
10. Paul H-J

    It looks as though there may be an impending by-election in Glasgow NE – we’ll know more later today. If tehre is, and the Lab candidate is a Mr P Martin, then SNP look like favourites to take it.

    Even if they do, both this and Glasgow East will be close contests at the GE with Lab likely to take them back.

    May 19th, 2009 at 11:49 am
11. deanthetory

    The problem naturally is that in many SNP held seats, and seats where they are competing to take them they are faced with an extremely tough Tory challenge- the last Scot Poll (which is well weighted, and not just a sample of a UK wide poll) placed my lot on 21%, thats enough to deny the SNP (on around 27-30%) Stirling, Arygyll & Bute at least.

    As for the borders, no chance- they are straight fights between Labour-Con and Lib-Con, and based on the regional breakdown (on the Scotland wide poll) the cons were highest in the borders (i think 34%) and lowest in the Glasgow area (15%). So the SNP will make damn good gains- Dundee East, and Ochil & South Perthshire, but beyond that it will get harder.

    Has anyone thought they could take Kilmarnoch?

    May 19th, 2009 at 12:04 pm
12. benjamin

    I don’t consider Gordon to be at much risk from the SNP at the General Election – the Holyrood gain was in special circumstances of a First Minister-designate standing to re-enter the Parliament. I don’t think that result will be anything like replicated next year.

    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey (have I missed anyone?!) looked like a 4-way marginal in 2005 but I think a Labour squeeze/collapse this time coupled with Danny Alexander’s mythical “Lib Dem First Term Incumbancy” will make it relatively secure this time – though in the future, it may well be vulnerable to the Gnats.

    I didn’t mention Stirling because I think the Tories are strong enough to take it – but again, when the Tories are next on the slide it could well be the SNP rather than Labour who benefit.

    May 19th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
13. Euan Davidson

    The most likely sceanario is a 3:2:1

    With Labour taking three which would be a disaster for us Liberals

    May 19th, 2009 at 4:14 pm
14. Borderer

    We seem to be drifiting into discussing westminster elections here, so to join in the fun, I will say this:

    Check out the regional list votes for polling stations in the Scottish Borders in 2007 (the Scotland Office data from DRS) and you may form a less different view as to whether we should be written off. Over the two seats in the Borders, the SNP polled more list votes than either the Lib Dems or Tories. That is a good indicator of the underlying support.

    Besides, I think you will find we in the SNP are actually fighting a real campaign in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, whereas in the past we were behind the pace by quite a margin. In a sense we have always underperformed what we should get in a seat with the demographics we have, but we are making a good fist of it now.

    I can’t remember the last time we actively campaigned in a European election here, but we are certainly doing so this time. Hopefully that will be reflected at the count, with a good jump in our vote share in Roxburgh and Berwickshire and in Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale.

    I think East Lothian is a real SNP possibility in 2010, as there is a good organisation there, in good heart, and the constituency Labour party is riven from top to bottom with infighting over their unpopular MP, Anne Moffat. Less knowledgable about DCT and D&G seats, so defer to others’ judgement.

    May 19th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
15. Borderer

    Not sure where the less different bit came from – a senior moment, so please forgive me!

    May 19th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
16. Pete Whitehead

    “The most likely sceanario is a 3:2:1

    With Labour taking three which would be a disaster for us Liberals”

    Which would require Labour to poll more than three times as many voted as the LDs ie. Labour over 30% LDs under 10% (or over 27% under 9% or whatever). That doesnt seem most likely to me – more likely that such an arrangement could occur with the SNP taking those three seats. It seems increasingly likely the SNP will top the poll in Scotalnd

    May 19th, 2009 at 10:20 pm
17. Iain Mackintosh

    I’m surprised that nobody mentioned Ayrshire North & Arran (Cunningham North as an SNP MSP) or Livingston (which has an SNP MSP) as potential SNP targets.

    I would have expected these two to me moreso than Glenrothes (despite an SNP MSP in Central Fife) or East Lothian (despite an SNP MSP in Mussleburgh).

    May 19th, 2009 at 10:22 pm
18. Pete Whitehead

    Given the result of the Glenrothes by-election i’m surprsied anyone thinks that is now a plausible SNP target

    May 19th, 2009 at 10:34 pm
19. Borderer

    Pete : I think the loss of a second marked up register is unlikely given the scrutiny after its loss following the by-election. Hence, I would expect fewer postal votes, perhaps.(turnout was incredibly, in November and bad weather, higher than for the General Election)….and a different result may be the outcome. Also Labour’s line regarding care home charges has been exposed as distortion (Labour in Glasgow actually charged more than SNP/Lib Dem Fife).

    Even putting aside my cynicism about the by-election, there is no doubt that Labour will not be able to compete in terms of activists vs the local SNP organisation and I would expect Glenrothes to be a very good prospect indeed for the SNP.

    May 19th, 2009 at 10:46 pm
20. Pete Whitehead

    hmm. there was something certainly strange about the byelection result. Still I dont think you can account for all of Labour’s lead by suggestions of any irregularities. I suspect there was some tendency in a seat that contains part of Gordon Browns former Dunfermline East not to kick their man when he’s down and maybe that sentiment would also assist Labour in the general, though I’m sure there will be some substantial swing to the SNP both from the last general and the byelection

    May 19th, 2009 at 10:53 pm
21. Andy Stidwill

    I didn’t realise there was any question about the Glenrothes by-election result.

    May 19th, 2009 at 10:57 pm
22. Joe James B

    Surely the main reason for the Glenrothes result was it was timed in the depths of the banking crisis, as it started to unravell with the international/struck by outside events dimension given repeated coverage.
    Initially this played to Labour’s favour, and the SNP were wrong footed when RBS came under attack and depended on the British government to authorise a big bailout.

    No doubt there were other factors such as Gordon Brown’s own area, and the SNP council acquiring a record, but I believe both of those would surely be very secondary, without knowing the area.

    May 19th, 2009 at 11:19 pm
23. Borderer

    Joe James – you make some sense, but for me, the defining issue appears to have been care home charges. We in the SNP simply failed to react to this in time. It was a distortion, but I think the campaign team believed people would see it as a scare story and dismiss it. Unfortunately, Labour successfully convinced people black was white and didn’t even mention that their own beloved Glasgow charged far more than SNP/Lib Dem Fife.

    I don’t think the outcome would have been different, i.e. I think labour’s vote held up better than expected, but there is something very suspicious about the size of the margin – with the marked register disappearing immediately after the Council passed it to the Sheriff Court, I am very suspicious.

    My gut instinct is that something shady went on, but that Lindsay Roy would have won by a narrow margin in the absence of this. Impossible to prove, given the register’s disappearance.

    Anyway, that will not be allowed to happen again, as it will be under intense scrutiny next time, so I suspect any shenanigans will unwind for the general election, combined with Labour having to defend the seat with very few activists compared with the SNP.

    May 20th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
24. Paul H-J

    Do we know how the Scottish Euro results will be published ?

    In previous years they have been by constituency, but in those days the Westminster and Holyrood seats were the same. England and Wales were by (westminster) constiuency in 1999 but by Local Authority district in 2004.

    If Scottish results are published by Westminster constituency, then that could give us a better idea as to how Labour is faring in individual seats. This may show the SNP ahead in Glenrothes, but, as Borderer notes, this does not mean that Lindsay Roy would not have held it at a by-election.

    Come the revolution (aka General election) Roy will be hard pressed to hold the line, but I suspect that, notwithstanding Borderer’s observation about local campaign resources, he will hold the line against the advancing nationalist horde.

    May 21st, 2009 at 1:13 pm
25. Champagne Capitalist

    I wondered if Catherine Stihler would have been punished for the Dumfermline and West Fife by-election, but clearly not

    June 1st, 2009 at 2:36 pm
26. Tam

    Paul – By Local authority. Which is really disappointing because I think it would have made for really interesting reading otherwise. I think that the Electoral Commission has called this one wrong, which is a shame because I think they are quite innovative sometimes.

    June 1st, 2009 at 3:13 pm
27. Matt

    Is the John Smart who is 2nd on the list for Christian Peoples Alliance, the same John Smart who stood fo4r the Conservatives in Edinburgh East & Musselburgh in 2003?

    June 1st, 2009 at 9:41 pm
28. P.U.M.P

    I’m still going for a 3:2:1 share of the seats for the SNP, Lab and Tories respectively.

    June 2nd, 2009 at 12:10 am
29. deanthetory

    I would say that the SNP chances of getting 3 MEPs from the Scottish 6 would be a plausable, but certainly not the more likely. I still hold for a 2:2:2, or perhaps a 2:2:1:1 (not sure which is the most likely out of the two if I avoid being partisan)

    June 2nd, 2009 at 12:21 am
30. Doktorb

    Scotland is a hard one to call. The Conservative support will not have such an up-tick as elsewhere in the country, the Labour vote may not fall as far. With six it could go 2 Lab, 2 SNP, 1 Con, 1 LibDem, but whither the greens? 2:1:1:1:1, anyone?

    June 2nd, 2009 at 8:39 am
31. Tam

    Assuming the Yougov “super sample is correct – which i accept is a bit of a stretch even at 500 voters, then it should go:
    SNP 2 Lab 2 Con 1 Lib Dem 1

    Can someone remind meof a scenario of how either the SNP or Lab could get 3 and the Lib Dems none, because my brain has melted in the sun?

    June 2nd, 2009 at 9:25 am
32. Pete Whitehead

    The SNP or Labour would need to get 3x the LD vote for that to hapen (ie SNP >30% LD 27% LD <9% etc)

    June 2nd, 2009 at 10:37 am
33. Peter Crerar

    Don’t see Labour getting 3 x LD vote in Scotland….this is possible with the SNP but still less likely.

    SNP 2
    Lab 2
    Con 1
    LD 1

    The LD are more likely to lose their seat if they poll less than half the Conservative vote (and the Tories still poll over two thirds SNP or Labour vote).

    I don’t see the Consevatives (who have done well in Scotland at the last 2 Euro elections) polling less than half the Labour or SNP vote (therefore SNP 3 / Con 1 is unlikely) -

    SNP 2
    Lab 2
    Con 2

    I think that the most likely result is SNP 2, Lab 2, Con 1 and LD 1 with the LD seat being closely held against the Tories and not the SNP.

    June 2nd, 2009 at 11:06 am
34. newbie nick

    Anybody seen Shadsy?

    June 2nd, 2009 at 11:07 am
35. Paul H-J

    I don’t see any party getting 3 seats here. It would have been probable – indeed likely – if there were still 7 seats in Scotland, but with 6 MEPs, for one party to take half requires a fairly dominant position and/or a wide dispersal of parties each of whom just fail to claim a seat.

    For the lead party to take 3 seats it would need to have more than twice the votes of third placed party and more than three times fourth placed.

    In terms of ranking, we are likely to see SNP in a strong lead, with Lab + Con close together a few points behind then a bigger gap to LD who are in turn a few points ahead of a cluster of other parties on 5-6%.

    In such a scenario, the most likley result is 2:2:1:1 but if the 3rd place party gets twice 4th place then result will be 2:2:2. For 3:2:1, or even 3:1:1:1, SNP would need to be well above 30% and others below 20%.

    While some may think SNP will have a strong lead over Lab, I would caution that at least 25% is likely to go to “others”. If SNP were to reach 30%, then that leaves only 45% to be shared between Lab / Con / LD which would need to be split something like 22/14/9 to deliver a 3rd seat to SNP.

    Put another way, SNP would need all 3 of the other main parties to fare worse than expected and pick up most of the disaffected votes itself rather than have them go to “others”. Not impossible, but not that likely.

    June 2nd, 2009 at 11:47 am
36. Andy Stidwill

    With the latest polls Labour must be getting slightly worried about coming third, especially if there’s a bigger turnout in Tory areas than Labour ones.

    June 2nd, 2009 at 12:13 pm
37. P.U.M.P

    If the LD’s hold onto their seat it’ll be by a whisker I think.

    I really can’t see Labour finishing 3rd in Scotland. If they do, then they’re going to be in major deep toilet going into the GE.

    June 3rd, 2009 at 12:09 pm
38. Andy Stidwill

    Possible result:

    SNP – 27%
    Lab – 19%
    C – 16%
    LD – 12%
    Green – 10%
    BNP – 4%

    June 3rd, 2009 at 2:17 pm
39. Andy Stidwill

    I missed UKIP out. They’ll probably stay the same as before with 7%.

    June 3rd, 2009 at 2:21 pm
40. Peter Crerar

    “With the latest polls Labour must be getting slightly worried about coming third, especially if there’s a bigger turnout in Tory areas than Labour ones.”

    In 2004 the Tories polled just under 18% to Labour on just over 26%. I would love the Tories to beat Labour into third place in Scotland but the gap in 2004 was still over 8%.

    I believe that 8% gap will be at least halved (due more to a larger fall in the Labour vote than an increase – if any – in the Tory vote).

    I think the Labour vote will fall to the very low twenties or high teens and the Tory vote remain in the mid/ high teens.

    June 3rd, 2009 at 2:31 pm
41. Tam

    I think Peter is spot on.

    One factor that may be worth considering is the number of postal votes returned. If there are lots of postal votes, then this would (in theory) be good for Labour and the SNP, as they had collected the highest number from the various parliamentary by-elections.

    June 3rd, 2009 at 2:39 pm
42. NoOffenceAlan

    Tam, Re: postal votes. I think that”s more to do with where the by-elections were. At the Holyrood elections in 2007 the Conservatives did relatively better in the postal votes than the other parties. They ‘won’ the postal vote in Stirling, for example, but came third overall.

    June 3rd, 2009 at 4:00 pm
43. Tam

    Sure, but turn out will be relatively low, so a large number of postal votes could be significant.

    I think the Electoral Commission publish a list of PVs by constituency (I think I will go and have a look).

    June 3rd, 2009 at 4:41 pm
44. Neil

    Final Prediction:

    SNP – 2
    Labour – 2
    Conservatives – 1
    Libdems – 1

    This will be quite interesting. Conservatives will push Labour pretty close here, but I doubt we will have quite enough to overhaul them. The Greens and UKIP could also be within sight of that 6th seat, but neither of them will quite make it. Don’t underestimate UKIP’s chances in Scotland – I know of quite a few people who voted for them here in Glasgow (I was tempted to do so myself, but in the end I voted Conservative in the hope we might beat Labour).

    June 4th, 2009 at 7:46 pm
45. NoOffenceAlan

    I too think 2-2-1-1 is the most likely result, though 3-2-1-0 and 3-1-1-1 are possible. Since the Euro votes are being counted by council area, I’ll have a stab at predicting which party will ‘win’ each council.

    Con – Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, South Ayrshire, East Renfrewshire.
    LD – Orkney, Shetland
    Lab – North Lanarkshire, South Lanarkshire, Glasgow, Inverclyde, West Dunbartonshire
    SNP – the rest.

    June 4th, 2009 at 8:32 pm
46. Matt

    I agree with Neil – cannot see it being anything else.

    June 4th, 2009 at 9:12 pm
47. Badger

    My prediction: SNP 2, Labour 2, Con 1, Lib Dem 1. SNP to top the poll, Labour second, and Tories to lose one seat due to the reduction from 7 to 6 seats.

    June 4th, 2009 at 11:17 pm
48. colin mcintyre

    thats interesting nooffencealan. what do others think? u reckon the snp will win edinburgh? doubtful i think. i cant see labour losing all of east lothian, renfrewshire and midlothian. perhaps east lothian but im not sure. i reckon labour will win renfrewshire and midlothian. the snp will need to be doing very well to take east dunbatonshire. agree with your tory and lib dem predictions though. i think stirling, aberdeenshire and perth and kinross will be very interesting. The euros hve tended to better for the conservatives in these traditional north-of-the-central-belt rural areas. the scale of the snp advances here will be interesting to watch.

    June 5th, 2009 at 11:56 am
49. Andy Stidwill

    It’s a bit annoying that the Scottish results don’t come through until Monday.

    The reason I believe is that the Western Isles cannot count on a Sunday because the Sabbath is still taken very seriously on the islands and they won’t count votes on it, so the whole of Scotland has to wait for its Euro results until Monday. Why can’t they count the votes on Saturday and send the results in to Edinburgh where they can be kept secret until Sunday night?

    June 5th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
50. agentmancuso

    Andy,

    it would be impossible to keep the results wholly secret. Too many people involved in the counting.

    A better solution would be to fire council staff who disobey orders…

    June 7th, 2009 at 2:37 pm

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