Scotland Euros
Scotland currently returns 7 members of the European Parliament, but this will reduce to 6 at the next election, meaning the Conservatives notionally lose a seat.
In 2004 the region returned 2 Conservative MEPs, 2 Labour MEPs, 2 SNP MEPs and 1 Lib Dem MEP.
Sitting MEPs and 2004 Results
| 1. |  |
David Martin (Labour) | 310,865 (26.4%) | |
| 2. |  |
Ian Hudghton (SNP) | 231,505 (19.7%) | |
| 3. |  |
Struan Stevenson (Conservative) | 209,028 (17.8%) | |
| 4. |  |
Catherine Stihler (Labour) | (155,433) | |
| 5. |  |
Elspeth Attwooll (Liberal Democrat) | 154,178 (13.1%) | (Will stand down at next election) |
| 6. |  |
Alyn Smith (SNP) | (115,753) | |
| 7. | |
John Purvis (Conservative) | (104,514) | (Will stand down at next election) |
| -. | Scottish Green | 79,695 (6.8%) | ||
| -. | UKIP | 78,828 (6.7%) | ||
| -. | Scottish Socialist | 61,356 (5.2%) | ||
| -. | Christian Vote | 21,056 (1.8%) | ||
| -. | BNP | 19,427 (1.7%) | ||
| -. | Scottish Wind Watch | 7,255 (0.6%) | ||
| -. | Fergus Tait (Independent) | 3,624 (0.3%) |
2009 Candidates
| 1. | David Martin. Sitting MEP. Born 1954, Edinburgh. Educated at Libertson High School. Lothian regional councillor 1982-1984. MEP for Lothian 1984. MEP for Scotland since 1999. |
| 2. | Catherine Stihler. Sitting MEP. Born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006. |
| 3. |  Mary Lockhart. Educated at Dunfermline High School and Edinburgh University. Former army officer and journalist. |
| 4. |  Paul McAleavely. Former European Commission official. |
| 5. |  Kirsty Connell. Born Aberdeen. Student at the University of Glasgow. Contested South of Scotland list 2007 Scottish elections |
| 6. |  Nasim Khan. Business entrepreneur. Contested Glasgow list 2003 Scottish election, West of Scotland list 2007 Scottish election. |
| 1. | Ian Hudghton. Sitting MEP. Former leader of Angus council. MEP for North-East Scotland 1998-1999, for Scotland since 1999. |
| 2. | Alyn Smith. Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at Leeds and Heidelberg Universities. Commercial lawyer. MEP for Scotland since 2004. |
| 3. |  Aileen McLeod. Head of policy for Alyn Smith and formerly a specialist researcher at the Scottish Parliament. Contested Edinburgh West 2001, 2003 Scottish election. |
| 4. |  Drew Hendry. Former retail manager and director with Electrolux. Highland councillor. |
| 5. |  Duncan Ross. Educated at Glasgow University and the LSE. Lately Head of history and archaelogy at the University of Glasgow. Contested Cunningham South 2007 Scottish election. Contested Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill 2005. |
| 6. | Gordon Archer. |
| 1. | Struan Stevenson. Born 1948, Ballantrae. Educated at West of Scotland Agricultural College. Formerly director of a family farmying and tourism company. Girvan councillor 1970-1974, Kyle and Carrick councillor 1972-1992. Contested Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley 1987, Edinburgh South 1992, Dumfries 1997. North-East Scotland European by-election 1999. MEP for Scotland since 1999. |
| 2. |  Belinda Don. Born Birmingham. Educated at Sussex Univesity. Parliamentary assistant to Struan Stevenson and former valuer at Sotherbys. Contested Glenrothes 2005, Dundee West 2007 Scottish election. |
| 3. |  Helen Gardiner |
| 4. |  Donald Gunn MacDonald. Born Golspie. Educated at Golspie High and Edinburgh Univerity. Former headteacher. Contested Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 2007. |
| 5. |  Gerald Michaluk. Educated at Lendrick Muir School and Heriot Warr Universirt. Marketing consultant. Contested Glasgow Pollok 2007. Will contest Ochil and South Perthshire at the next election. |
| 6. |  PJ Lewis. Contested Midlothian 2007. |
| 1. |  George Lyon. Born 1956, Rothesay. Educated at Rothesay Academy. Farmer. MSP for Argyll and Bute 1999-2007. Deputy Minister for Finance and Parliamentary business in the Scottish executive 2005-2007. |
| 2. |  Euan Robson. Born 1954. Educated at Trinity College, Glenalmond and Newcastle University. Former teacher. MSP for Roxburgh and Berwickshire 1999-2007. Deputy Minister for Parliamentary business 2001-2003, Education 2003-2005 in the Scottish Executive. |
| 3. |  Robert Aldridge. Chief Executive of the Scottish Council for Single Homeless. Edinburgh councillor since 1984. Contested Scotland in 1999 and 2004 European elections. |
| 4. |  Patsy Kenton. Born 1954. Nurse. Contested Moray 1999 Scottish election, Inverness East, Nairn and Lochaber 2001 and 2003 Scottish election, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale 2005. |
| 5. |  Douglas Herbison. Born 1951. Educated at London University. Motherwell councillor 1973-1979. Contested Cumbernauld and Kilsyth 1983, Cunninghame North 1987, 1992, Banff and Buchan 2001, Inverclyde 2005. Contested Strathclyde West 1984, 1989, 1994 European elections. Contested Glasgow Kelvin 2003, Hamilton North and Belshill 2007 Scottish elections. |
| 6. | Clive Sneddon. Teaches French at St Andrews University. Former leader of North East Fife council 1988-1996. |
| 1. |  Peter Adams Former officer in the Royal Engineers. Contested Lothians list 2007 Scottish election. Contested Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath 2005, Livingston by-election 2005. |
| 2. |  Paul Henke Born South Wales. Educated at Pontypridd Grammar and Dartmouth Royal Naval College. Former bomb disposal officer. Contested West of Scotland list 2007. |
| 3. |  Donald Mackay Company director. Contsted Glasgow 2003, 2007 Scottish elections. Contested Scotland 1999, 2004 European elections. Contested Clydesdale 2001, Lanark and Hamilton East 2005. |
| 4. | Peter Neilson |
| 5. | Mike Arthur |
| 6. |  Paul Wiffen Will contest Cities of London and Westminster at the next election. |
| 1. |  Elaine Morrison Manager of a regional energy advice centre. |
| 2. |  Chas Booth Educated at Edinburgh University. Parliamentary officer for Friends of the Earth. Contested Scotland in 2004 European elections. |
| 3. |  Kirsten Robb Contested East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow 2005. Will contest East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow at the next election. |
| 4. |  Alastair Whitelaw Born London. Educated at Edinburgh University. Contested Glasgow Hillhead 1983, 1987, Glasgow Anniesland Scottish Parliament by-election 2000. |
| 5. |  Ruth Cameron Born Isle of Harris. Educated at Edinburgh University. Contested Lothians Region in 2007 Scottish election. |
| 6. |  Peter McColl Born 1980, Belfast. Educated at Edinburgh University. Researcher for Mark Ballard MSP. |
| 1. |  Gary Raikes Born 1958, Bristol. Works for Scottish Water. Former army cadet officer. Contested North East Scotland in 2007 Scottish elections. |
| 2. |  Charlie Baillie Electrical contractor. |
| 3. |  Deborah McKnight Born Glasgow. |
| 4. |  Roy Jones |
| 5. |  Max Dunbar Born 1956, Glasgow. Educated at Kelvinside Academy. Joiner, working in property restoration. |
| 6. |  Elise Jones |
| 1. |  John Foster History professor. International Secretary of the Communist Party of Britain. Contested Glasgow Govan 1999 Scottish election, 2001 general election, 2003 Scottish election. |
| 2. |  Tommy Sheridan Born 1964, Glasgow. Educated at Lourdes Secondary and Stirling University. Former member of Labour and the Militant Tendency, he was a prominent poll tax rebel and campaigner against Faslane Navel Base, for which he was twice jailed. A leading figure in the creation of the Scottish Socialist party, which he lead from its creation in 1998 until 2004. Shortly after his resignation the News of the World published allegations that Sheridan had attended swingers parties, Sheridan sued for libel and won, despite members of the SSP tesitfying against him. Sheridan subsequently resigned from the SSP and founded a new party, Solidarity. Sheridan has subsequently been charged with perjury in relation to the libel trial, the hearing is expected later in 2009. Glasgow councillor 1992-2003. MSP for Glasgow 1999-2007. Contested Glasgow Pollock 1992, 1997 as Scottish Militant Labour. |
| 3. | Leah Ganley Educated at Dundee University. |
| 4. | Stuart Hyslop |
| 5. | Ajit Uppal |
| 6. | Thomas Morrison |
| 1. |  Sheila McLaughlan Contested Lothians region 2007 Scottish elections. |
| 2. | John Smart Contested Lothians region 2007 Scottish elections. |
| 3. |  Brian Ross Contested Central Scotland region 2007 Scottish elections. |
| 4. | Archie Linnegan Contested Glasgow Region 2007 Scottish elections. |
| 5. | Christine Cormack |
| 6. | Isobel MacLeod Contested Glasgow Kelvin and Glasgow Region 2007 Scottish elections. |
| 1. |  Louise McDaid Chair of the Farepak victims campaign. Contested Cunninghame North 1997, Ayrshire North and Arran 2001. |
| 2. | David Jacobsen Contested Edinburgh North and Leith 2001. |
| 3. | Katharine McGavigan College lecturer. Contested Hamilton North and Bellshill 1999 Scottish elections, Paisley & Renfrewshire North 2005. |
| 4. | James Berrington Contested Glasgow list 2003, North East Scotland list 2007. |
| 5. | Claire Watt Educated at Edinburgh university. Contested Motherwell and Wishaw 2001, Highlands and Islands list 1999, 2003, 2007. |
| 6. |  James McDaid |
| 1. |  Colin Fox Born 1959, Motherwell. MSP for Lothian 2003-2007. Convenor then joint spokesperson of hte SSP since 2003. |
| 2. |  Angela Gorrie Educated at Dundee university. |
| 3. |  Johanna Dind |
| 4. |  Nick McKerrell University lecturer. |
| 5. |  Raphael de Santos Former head of equity derivatives research and strategy at Goldman Sachs |
| 6. |  Felicity Garvie |
| 1. |  Alan Wallace Sales rep. |
| 2. | John O’Callaghan Freelance web designer. |
| 3. |  Stuart Brown Musician. Contested Hamilton South 1997 for the Referendum party. |
| 4. |  Kenneth Lees Works for an oil company. |
| 5. |  Mev Brown Project manager. |
| 6. |  Austin Compson-Bradford Small businessman selling and hiring horse drawn carriages. |
There is also one independent candidate:
Duncan Robertson (Independent)
NB - The constituency guide is now archived and is no longer being updated. The new guide is at http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide
With all due respect to the people of the islands the number of votes involved is so tiny in the context of a Euro election that surely it wouldn’t be a terrible thing if the results leaked out a day early. The purpose of keeping the results secret is so that people in other European countries voting today on Sunday aren’t influenced by the results elsewhere. I don’t think anyone could seriously say that people in Germany for example would be unduly influenced by the results from the Na h-Eileanan Siar area, especially when we know what the result is going to be, which is a big vote for the SNP with Labour second and the other parties with only a small showing.
Yes, agreed on both points.
It is all over.
The SNP ran firm in Scotland, on 29% on the night, with a meagre Scottsh Labour showing of 21%.
The worrying thing most of all however from Scotland was the the tories leading in East Renfrewshire and in Edinburgh South and leading by a 2:1 ratio (between them and labour) in Dumfries & Galloway.
But a rather average Scottish national percentage of the vote on just under 17%. The message I’d take?
Scottish Tories doing well in former heartlands and clearly making waves locally there (including a good performance in south Ayrshire apparently for them).
As for the SNP, this result provides them with the means to solve much current problems faced by them; espeically provides a means to save McAskill’s possition- by saying (rightly or wrongly) that this result is “a vote of confidence in the current SNP executive at Holyrood”. Labour…well at least they weld firm in the peoples socialist republic of Lannarkshire and Glasgow….
When do the Western Isles results come through?
UPDATE AT 1009:
BBC’s scottish correspondent posted at 10:09:
I’m filing from the Royal Mile in Edinburgh, where the results have just been declared.
As billed, two seats each for the SNP and Labour, one for the Tories, one for the Lib Dems.
In terms of voting share, the SNP are placed first, with 29.1%, Labour second with 20.8%, Tories third with 16.8% and Lib Dems fourth, with 11.5%.
Tories came a close second in Edinburgh to the SNP.
Breakdown of the council results are available here:
http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/internet/Attachments/Internet/Council/Elections/2009/Euro09Results.xls
A tour de force from the SNP and pretty poor for Labour and the Lib Dems. A solid performance from the Tories, they were going to lose a seat due to the reapportionment unless they pulled off a total shock! The regional breakdowns for them are very encouraging, topping the poll in Galloway, the Borders and Renfrew E and running the SNP close in Edinburgh. They also seemed to have polled well in Aberdeenshire, the significant thing is that these are the very areas where that have strong chances of getting new MP’s at the GE. The best strategy for them is to concentrate on a few seats and concentrate on building up their strength there.
I’ve not been following this closely, but I heard that the LDs feared they would lose out as their experienced MEP was retiring and Scotland was losing a seat.
To hold a seat against the background of the SNP surge might be regarded as a minor success for them?
Camden John, due to the absurd nature of the European electoral system the SNP would have really struggled to get that 3rd seat from Scotland. Coming sho firmly first ought to be the victory they were after.
(But 29% is a lot less than what they will need in a General Election scenario if they want to break the 8 MPs barrier (6 holds and 2 gains).
The Liberals were going to hold their seat unless the Scottish Tories managed the unbelievable to take that liberal MEP
Dean
I agree that this voting system ia an abomination! Only this system would allow election of BNP MEPs.
It escapes understanding why the Tories pushed through this stupidity when much more sensible systems – STV, AV, additional members etc – were available.
“A solid performance from the Tories, they were going to lose a seat due to the reapportionment unless they pulled off a total shock! ”
The fact is, the Tories would still have lost a seat if there hadn’t been a reduction in seats. It would have been a 3rd seat for the SNP.
It was only the re-apportionment that cost the SNP their third seat – they polled more than 1.5 times the Conservatives.
As for the Lib Dems, we were concerned because the opinion polls were all over the place. In the end, we won the 5th seat, ahead of the second Labour MEP.
We overtook the Conservatives in Argyll, East Dunbartonshire and Fife.
Nooffencealan the liberals beating the tories in Argyll, East Dumbarton must surely be a major satisfaction for the Liberals. After all they are required to hold up their vote against a resurgent Scottish tory if they seek to hold those two marginals.
So, its rather like what it has been across the UK as a whole for Cleggs Liberals. Holding successfully at local government levels (only making a net loss of 3 councillors in England, meaning the high 2004 levels of support has been secured) but failing to expand upon the current strong liberal base.
But Clegg ought to remember in Cornwall he did loose control of Devonshire council for example, indicating he needs to do better to beat off the Tory challenge down there; up here they need to perform better in Aberdeenshire (possible loss to the tories in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine for example).
The net loss of 3 councillors is misleading. There was an increase in the overall numbers of councilllors in those counties which had become unitary authorities (Wiltshire, Cornwall, Shropshire and Bedfordshire). In the counties where direct comparisons can be made the LDs were down about 25 seats net (with large falls in places where it matters most to them like Devon and Somerset). This was offset to some extent by an increase in councillors in the unitary authorities. But if you take Wiltshire for example the total number of seats doubled from 49 to 98 while the number of LD seats went up from 16 to 24 – so a net increase of 8, but a real terms decline of 8 (and their number of councillors in Cornwall, Shropshire and the Bedfordshire authorities should be seen in the same context)
Dean,
does 16.8% of the popular vote (down 1% on last time) really count as a ‘resurgent Scottish tory’ vote?
What matters is not the share of the vote so far as I see, what is important as a Scottish Tory is winning in the marginals (Westminster), and we did in places such as Edinburgh, the borders, east Edinburgh.
We took the places we had targeted; which tells us that our electoral strategy is working. Our old heartlands of south ayrshire even returned to us in the euro elections.
Aberdeen was another area where we performed as we had hoped to and more, so yep I’d say that we succeeded in all the areas which actually matter in electoral terms in Scotland.
The marginal fall in our share of the vote recieved in the euros can also be explained in a couple of ways potentially; most importantly for attention is:
* a lower turnout across Scotland, but in the areas where we did well the turnout was above the Scottish average (east renfrew for example it was 38.9% I think)
So, in electoral terms we are resurgent in the areas where we a) can win b) were our old heartlands.
sorry ‘east edinburgh’ was meant to say east renfrew
There have now been 7 euro-elections.
For Scotland, in percentage terms, 2009 was the:
Worst result ever for Labour,
2nd best result for SNP,
2nd worst result for Tories,
Median (4th best/worst) result for Lib Dems,
Best ever (just, of 6 contested) for the Greens,
2nd best ever (of 4 contested) for UKIP.
Dean, where is this Tory resurgence?
Compared to 2004, allowing for boundary changes, the Tories have ‘lost’ the following seats which they won in 2004:
Argyll and Bute (falling to 3rd place),
Gordon,
Stirling, and
Edinburgh South West.
And this with UKIP (whose voters presumably vote Tory in other elections) slipping back, too.
As I’ve already said, the scottish tories performed extremely well in the areas targeted, as mentioned above; east renfrew, the borders, south ayrshire, edinburgh and aberdeenshire. A strong tory recovery in these areas indicates a tory recovery north of the border, because these locations are where the winnables are.
East Renfrew,
Edinburgh (South & South West)
Berwickshire Roxbrugh and Selkirk
dumfries and galloway
clydesdale tweedesdale and lauderdale (Mundells seat)
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
Aberdeen South
all our most winnables and the euros election indicates that come the westminster general election scottish tories are in line to take them.
This in my book is a good tory recovery; especially as Cochrine explained the UKIP vote is almost certainly tory voters- and as Cochrine said they will probably vote tory in westminster elections.
Perthshire North and Angus are possible.
In Oct 1974 the SNP majorities fell in some of the seats they had gained in Feb 1974 (despite in increase from 22% to 30% in Scotland).
In 1992, the Conservatives reduced the SNP majorities in 2 of the 3 seats they had lost to the SNP in 1987.
In 2005 the Conservatives more than halved the 2001 notional SNP majority in Perthshire North.
Thats all rather interesting Peter; I was unawares of that history.
But surely 1974-1992 was a time when Scotland had less of a hysteria about voting Tory as opposed to the post 1997 environment?
It is really interesting looking back over the predictions from prior to the 4th June.
It looks like the SNP pundits got it pretty much spot on. T
he Conservative-leaning pundits had mixed results, with a set of decent localised results off-set by their failure to beat Labour for 2nd place (you know who you are!).
Labour were all over the shop too – right about beating the Tories, but wrong about pretty much everything else.
The Lib Dems will be relieved to have held their seat, but were far too optimistic about local results (losing Edinburghis a bad sign).
So in conclusion – top marks to Will Paterson who I think had the most accurate predictions.
Can the SNP match these results in a GE? I’m not convinced that they can. Alex Salmond has been unusually reserved since the EU elections and has ‘toned down’ some of his seperatist views. Any predictions for the SNP at a GE?
Neil,
I think Salmond will be wanting to see how the polls settle over the summer, and, depending on timing, the outcome of Glasgow NE by-election.
If SNP win Glasgow NE, expect some triumphalism. But Salmond knows he cannot afford to appear arrogant in advance as not only would he look silly in the event of a Labour hold, it might even contribute to one.
As for SNP gains at the GE, the euro results were undoubtedly good, But, the raw national figures [SNP 320k; Lab 230k; Con 185k; LD 125k] do not tell the full story.
Since the results were declared by Council rather than constituency, we can’t be certain who won where (esp in places like Edinburgh), while the low turnout gives little assurance as to likely outcome at a GE.
However, the picture seems to be that the Lab vote fell most in areas where Lab were not in a straight battle with SNP. While the SNP will take comfort from having beaten Lab in so much of Scotland, apart from a few obvious targets – eg Dundee – the margins are not large enough to guarantee many additional seats.
More difficult for the SNP is the resilience of the Tory and LD votes outside the central belt. The fact that Lab vote has crumbled in these areas does not help the SNP who may well suffer from pro-union tactical voting at GE – esp in LD held Argyll and Gordon.
In essence, the SNP will be fighting two very different wars at the next election, and on neither front do they have an overwhelming advantage.
We may even see the SNP achieve in Scotland what the Tories did in England in 2005. Winning the most votes, but not the most seats, as Labour hold on in a dozen or more seats by a few thousand.
Now that is wisdom from my neighbour right there!
The euros results have reinforced indications from the polling and some bloggers own stated conclusions, that is that the SNP appear to be clearly able to beat the Labour party in the cenral belt- and this may help them come a close second (or maybe win) seats such as Kilmarnoch and Loudon from labour.
But as Paul explains the SNP have a tough fight on there hands as the only two ‘easy’ gains (if one can call them such) for them are Dundee West (from labour) and Ochil & South Perthshire (from labour)-v beyond that they are fighting from lower starting lines, or in the case of Argyl & Bute cases- they will suffer from unionist voting in the 3/4 way marginals.
From the electoral calculus Scottish calculator they will need more than 32% share if Scottish Labour hold above 28% share on the night- otherwise they are on target for a rather disapointing 6 holds and 2 gains. So it is a tough fight and as Paul pointed out they dont appear to as yet command a clear advantage in any one zone of combat to perhaps allow me for one to expect them to get any higher than 6/7 MPs on the night.