Comments on: Northern Ireland European

By: Champagne Capitalist

Champagne Capitalist — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 21:54:11 +0000

It seems that both Peter Crerar and myself were right about seat order. The rather confident Aidan Thompson was not

By: Robberbutton

Robberbutton — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 12:01:02 +0000

There aren’t any official constituency results for NI. Head to slugger for some tallies.

Rumour had it that the TUV ‘won’ north Antrim and took more votes than other unionists in Mid Ulster, while the DUP only ‘won’ North Belfast and East Londonderry (although I’m not sure how much I believe this).

By: Joseph Brayson

Joseph Brayson — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 11:06:58 +0000

Is there a constituency level breakdown available for NI as it would be interesting to see how well UCUNF did on a constituency basis?

By: Warofdreams

Warofdreams — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 10:47:31 +0000

So the headlines here are the DUP dropping large numbers of votes to TUV, but still holding their seat; SF actually falling back very slightly, but heading the poll easily, by default. The UUP didn’t fall back, as many were predicting, instead gaining vote share, coming close behind the DUP, and ultimately taking the second seat, ahead of them.

Among the parties who didn’t take seats, the SDLP picked up a little, but were unsurprisingly still some way off taking a seat. The TUV vote was strong, but they were far enough behind the other two unionist parties that it was clear where the seats were going from the start. Alliance took their best percentage since 1979, but predictions they might come through the middle were well off the mark.

Finally, the Greens took 3.2%, almost double their 2007 Assembly share (when, admittedly, they weren’t on the ballot everywhere), and easily their best ever result in a Northern Ireland-wide election.

By: RLC36

RLC36 — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 15:49:27 +0000

Gutted that Barbara Brown came in first but pleased Jim Nicholson got second seat – link up with the Tories can’t have done too much harm ! Speak as an Irish Catholic Tory who couldn’t envisage voting for the hillbillies in the DUP.

By: The Impartial Observer

The Impartial Observer — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 08:52:38 +0000

The votes were verified at the Kings Hall in Belfast yesterday ahead of Monday’s count. What impressions are entirely anecdotal but there is near unanimity that Bairbre De Brun will top the poll with something like 28% of the first preference votes. The reports are that the 3 Unionist candidates are in the words of BBC NI’s political editor Mark Devenport “quite closely packed,” this would suggest that the DUP vote has collapsed with Jim Allister polling very strongly in the rural areas as Truthseeker mentioned above. The CU’s vote appears to have held up quite well and there’s evidence that they’ve pulled back small amounts of the vote that they’ve lost to the DUP over the last 10 years. If true that suggests that if they’d put up a better and more articulate candidate than Nicholson then they may have done extremely well indeed.

Apologies for the lack of links as I can’t seem to post any here! but check out Mark Devenport’s blog and Slugger O’Toole. De Bruin to come in first, with Nicholson sure to get in on transfers at some point, the big question is how will the transfers break between Dodds and Allister. Even if she still gets in, the recriminations within the DUP will make the events of the last 36 hours in Labour look like a Sunday School picnic!!

By: truthseeker

truthseeker — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 15:54:00 +0000

Its definately Allister the DUP vote is collapseing in many of thier heartlands the unionist fight is between nicholson and dodds for the second unionist seat, maginess is clawing back votes from sf in significant numbers, this is going to be the most interesting count for years

By: Mike Stevenson

Mike Stevenson — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 12:09:38 +0000

If Nicholson’s vote really did collapse then an almost certain, but overlooked, benefactor could be Parsley of the Alliance Party. Alliance would need an absolute minimum of 9 to10 per cent on the first count to be in with any chance and at more than in any previous Euro poll this is asking a lot. But it is not outside the range of their better performances at Westminster or Stormont. Were Parsley to stay in the contest longer than Nicholson then a knuckle baring fight involving Parsley, Allister and Maginnis could ensue with Parsley just taking the seat. Remember that neither side of the divide in NI is likely to score an outright two quotas. In fact this time both could fail to better 45%. At the very least Parsley’s transfers will be very influential on who takes that final seat. This time that might just favour Maginnis.

By: Aidan Thomson

Aidan Thomson — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 11:13:09 +0000

Sorry: first sentence of previous post should begin ‘It probably won’t be in that order’; I realize that having said it certainly wouldn’t be SF-UCUNF-DUP I’ve then given a scenario in which it could be. And ‘campaign’, obviously, not ‘campagin’.

By: Aidan Thomson

Aidan Thomson — Mon, 01 Jun 2009 11:10:38 +0000

It certainly won’t be in that order, Peter. Nicholson has not been having an impressive campagin; Allister has, and I reckon there’s a big enough core DUP vote to ensure that Dodds does best of the unionist candidates even after a poor performance on TV. I’d say SF, DUP, UCUNF in that order.

Also, a lot will depend on who is over quota on the first round. I think de Brun will be; ordinarily I’d say that Dodds would be, but with Allister polling well it’s much harder to call. If de Brun is the only candidate over quota then the Green and Alliance transfers will come into play first, and will benefit Nicholson (and Maginess), which would probably mean the DUP gets the final seat through TUV transfers (I really can’t see Dodds ending up behind Allister).

But if Nicholson’s vote collapses and he’s third among the unionist candidates then things could get a lot more interesting. Imagine, for instance if de Brun and Dodds were elected and the final spot came down to a battle between Allister and Maginess, dependent on Nicholson’s transfers. Obviously Allister would be the net beneficiary, but by how much?