128 Responses to “North West European”

1. Neil

   Incidentally, I am one of those people who believes it would be no bad thing if the BNP got a couple of MEPs. I am probably one of the furthest from the BNP in ideological terms, but some of the issues they raise certainly need to be discussed seriously and sensibly, and many of the points they make are valid, although they should perhaps be toned down a bit.

   It doesn’t do to label a party (or individual politician) as “racist” or “nazi” or anything else, without pointing out specifically what it is that they advocate which you find abhorrent. Trying to silence a party (and a sizeable section of the public) with whom you disagree by resorting to such insults is not democracy in my book.

   April 20th, 2009 at 9:45 pm
2. Pete Whitehead

   I assume Andy was referring to the possibilty of the BNP winning seats in other regions besides this one, rather than that they would be likely to win more than one here. Obviously that is excpetionally unlikely. My feeling is that the balance of probablity lies in favour of them winning a seat in the NW, though it is by no means a certainty, but in other regions where a higher threshold is needed they would struggle. Their best regions besides this one are likely to be Yorkshire and the East and West Midlands, but each have only 5 or 6 seats which means a share of 12% or more would probably be required. As things stand I think the BNP are just about on the level of support where it will be a close run thing between them winning no seats, or only one, and winning four seats.

   April 20th, 2009 at 11:24 pm
3. Neil

   I realised after my post that this was what Andy meant, sorry.

   I think it will be possible for the BNP to get more than 1 seat nationally – even probable – they could be the story of the month come June.

   April 20th, 2009 at 11:35 pm
4. Andy Stidwill

   Pete’s right that I meant more than one seat over the whole country, (I didn’t phrase my comment very clearly). I agree that a second BNP seat in the NW can’t be completely ruled out although it’s extremely unlikely, probably something like 100-1 chance. I think more than one BNP seat in any other region can be ruled out. They polled a higher share in Y+H last time and might do so again this time, but since there are only 6 seats there compared to 8 here I don’t think it’s possible. Maybe Nick Griffin standing here will probably give them a higher share in the NW this time.

   April 21st, 2009 at 12:49 am
5. Neil

   I think the budget makes the prospect of Nick Griffin being elected here altogether more realistic.

   April 25th, 2009 at 12:37 am
6. benjamin

   I would say the opposite.

   The introduction of the 50% tax rate will be pretty ineffective in tackling the economic crisis but it is a brilliant dogwhistle to “underclass” white voters of exactly the kind Labour are scared will either stay at home or vote BNP.

   By appealing to the baser instincts of the voter and offering a different scapegoat (“toffs” rather than immigrants), Gordon may just have shot Nick Griffin’s fox.
   This was certainly the intention of the tax rise, to consolidate Labour’s base in advance of coming elections, particularly the GE.

   April 25th, 2009 at 1:00 am
7. James youd

   The Greens have just set up a new website to try and get the last seat by picking on the anti-BNP vote, i.e. ethnic minorities etc. http://www.stopnickgriffin.org.uk/sites/stopnickgriffin

   April 25th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
8. benjamin

   As unimpressed as I am by the Green Party and by candidacies based on “stopping” any other party, it goes without saying that I’d rather see Peter Cranie elected than Nick Griffin.
   That website is also rather well-designed.

   I would pull you up though on the “i.e. ethnic minorities”. The anti-BNP vote is not just the BME population and there are few places where targeting non-whites could hope to deliver anyone victory anyway. Any anti-BNP campaign, if you have to have one, needs to be crystal clear that racism and Nazism (not wanting to invoke Godwin’s Law but they are a party using nationalist appeal and socialist policies) are a threat to EVERYBODY and should offend the sensibilities of ANYONE who values freedom and humanity.

   Portraying the BNP and racism in general as only a problem for black people is deeply counterproductive and just plain wrong.

   April 26th, 2009 at 4:42 pm
9. Andy Stidwill

   So will LD supporters in the NW be offering to vote Green in order to stop Griffin?

   April 26th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
10. benjamin

    I sincerely doubt it – we will be making the most of our increased areas of success since 2004 like Oldham, Rochdale, Warrington, Knowsley, Burnley, Westmoreland and various others to make sure we get enough votes to hold the two seats we won in the North West last time. It’ll be a challenge but I’m sure the guys on the ground are up for it.

    I think it would be pretty difficult for Lib Dems to endorse a left-wing party like the Greens, never mind when they are backed by an even more extreme grouping like Respect. All the more so when the party in question is BEHIND us in the polls by some way and stands every chance of getting no seats at all.

    Plus, short of not standing at all, how would such a pact evenbe administered? There are no preferences to reallocate, just an X and we want that for ourselves, thank-you very much.

    April 26th, 2009 at 5:43 pm
11. Galloglass

    I agree entirely with Benjamin. The guiding principles of Liberal Democracy are grassroots democracy and individual choice. The Greens are the antithesis of this with centralised state control and no choice for the individual at all.

    The best chance of preventing the BNP being returned here is to maximise our own vote and aim for the 17 to 18% mark that should be enough to see us hold two seats.

    April 26th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
12. Pete Whitehead

    Benjamin is right that trying to organise tactical voting in this electoral system is a mugs game. There is no way the Greens will get more votes than the BNP in this region and the effect of voters who might otherwise vote LIb Dem or Labour voting Green could be actually to help the BNP win a seat by effectively lowering the threshold. The last seat is not marginal between the BNP and the Greens (it is arguable that the BNP may be not fighting over the last seat anyway) – it will be marginal between UKIP or between a third Labour seat or a second LD seat. I dont think the LDs will get double the BNP vote, but on the kind of figures Galloglass is discussing then you are looking at it being close at that point between a second LD seat and a BNP seat. If for example the LDs won 17% and the BNP 8.4% the LD second seat comes ahead of the BNP. If the LDs drop to 16% because a few of them have drifted off to the Greens and helped push them up to 6% then the BNP wins.

    Incidentally I wonder if this pact between the Greens and Respect will be repeated elsewhere. I can see it having a less than beneficial effect on the soft Green vote in parts of the South East, where many vote for the party in the misapprehension that the Greens are some kind of cuddly liberals.

    April 27th, 2009 at 12:48 am
13. Andy Stidwill

    I agree that the Green campaign to stop the BNP by voting Green is completely wrong-headed for the reasons Pete points out. The Greens are not going to beat the BNP – from a logical point of view they should be telling people to vote LD if their campaign to stop the BNP has any seriousness about it.

    April 27th, 2009 at 1:15 am
14. Frederic Stansfield

    Pete, awareness of Respect in the South-East outside London is more or less non-existent. If voters have heard of that party at all they probably identify it with George Galloway, who they see as Scottish. So Respect is about as relevant as the SNP (or less so). It follows that a Green pact or understanding with Respect will have negligible effect on Caroline Lucas’ Green vote.

    Indeed, I am a floating voter seriously thinking of voting for Caroline Lucas, and your making me aware of this pact frankly makes no difference to me. It’s not worth bothering about.

    April 27th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
15. Rt Hon Sir Robert Atkins MEP

    I have just seen this posting for the first time and wish to correct two errors.
    1. I have NOT had any difficulties with my expenses and, indeed, have taken successful legal action against newspapers which have alleged so, resulting in full apologies, payment of my costs and financial damages. So that canard can be dismissed. I suggest that posters on this site should take more care in what they imply. I should also point out that Tory MEPs were the first political group in the European Parliament, from any country, to declare all our expenses publicly on our website. It is all there for every voter to see.
    2. It was not a “trick” to submit my name for selection as the PPC and then MP for Preston North. I was picked from amongst 76 applicants during a full and proper selection process. I won by 29 votes in 1979 and numerous people told me over my 18 years in Parliament for Preston North and then South Ribble that, had it not been for the similarity in names, I would have achieved the same swing as was prevalent throughout the NW at the time and had a much larger majority.

    May 9th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
16. Anthony Wells

    Sir Robert

    Thanks for the correction. Looking at Joe James B’s original posting, it was presumably the original libellous press article that he was recalling from his memory.

    On the subject of 1979, I was one of those sad enough to watch the replay of the 1979 election coverage on BBC Parliament last week, and on that David Dimbleby commented on the electors of Preston North chosing to replace their MP Mr R Atkins with a new MP, Mr R Atkins.

    May 10th, 2009 at 11:40 am
17. Joe James B

    I know of no details of this – but scanned that there was some issue or other – I think it was on Conservative Home and maybe also a newspaper – and thought don’t like the sound of it.

    I think I might have wrongly assumed it had more weight because it looked quite a long article, and the national party was doing something about it.

    Here Sir Robert Atkins has corrected this story – as untrue –
    I apologise unreservedly to him for referring to it.

    Anthony Wells, please remove that part of the post near the start of this thread.

    Thanks.

    May 10th, 2009 at 1:21 pm
18. Matt

    Can anyone tell me why the Conservatives only have 5 candidates when there are 8 seats?

    May 10th, 2009 at 2:33 pm
19. Joe James B

    I couldn’t answer that point properly – in General Elections one stands in every seat, but this list system does rather make a mockery for those near the end of the list, so perhaps they decided to put up just the number realistically could win.

    May 10th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
20. Andy Stidwill

    It’s a sensible move by the Conservatives if it’s correct. Pretending there’s a possibility of winning 100% of the vote is a bit Stalinist.

    In the other regions I think the Tories are fielding a full block of candidates which is a bit strange. You would have thought they’d have a consistent policy throughout the country on this subject.

    May 10th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
21. Matt

    I seem to remember Fiona Bruce (Warrington South 2005 candidate) was one of the candidates, but withdrew when she was ranked outside the top4, so maybe they just never bothered replacing her

    May 10th, 2009 at 3:37 pm
22. Doktorb

    There is a full 8-member Conservative list;

    Robert Atkins MEP,
    Saj Karim MEP,
    Jacqueline Foster,
    Alex Williams,
    Greg Morgan,
    Tony Samuels,
    Peter Wilding,
    Andrew Large

    May 10th, 2009 at 3:39 pm
23. Matt

    Thanks Doktorb!

    May 10th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
24. Anthony Wells

    Yep – it’s just because I haven’t finished the long slog of transferring all 700+ officially announced candidates onto the website. 7 regions done, 5 still to go.

    May 10th, 2009 at 6:43 pm
25. Matt

    No problem Anthony. Btw, I have some more candidate selections for you, can I just mail them to you as before?

    May 10th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
26. Anthony Wells

    That would be great

    May 10th, 2009 at 7:29 pm
27. Pete Whitehead

    I predict for this region

    Con 29%
    Lab 27%
    LD 15%
    BNP 11%
    UKIP 9%
    Grn 5%

    Seat allocation: Con 3 Lab 2 LD 1 BNP 1 UKIP 1

    (I have rounded my figures which therefore put the last seat on a knife edge between UKIP and 3rd Labour, but my actual figures have UKIP a bit above 9% and Labour a bit below 27%)

    May 13th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
28. Daniel Lee

    You’re going to be proven completely wrong come election day. The Green vote will certainly not go down on previous years, where exactly is it going to go? The Lib Dems haven’t done anything to merit it and there are no other serious left wing parties to vote for. Green voters will turn out year on year, add to that Respects small but committed vote, and the fact again that there are very few options for those on the left, the Green vote will hold up very nicely.

    UKIP are not going to keep their seat. Libertas and NO2EU will further put in a nail in that coffin.

    Depending on what he current expenses stuff has done the Tories will keep 3 or gain an extra seat (I always assumed they’d gain one but the recent stuff has dented that). Labour will lose a seat no doubt. The Lib Dems may just keep two but I doubt it. If the Tories get the 4th seat it’ll be UKIPs, and Labours 3rd seat will be up for grabs between the Greens and BNP. And it will be tight.

    I predict:

    Con 31%
    Lab 23%
    Lib 16%
    Green 9%
    BNP 9%
    UKIP 6%
    Libertas 3%

    Or thereabouts, few votes in between the BNP and Greens.

    May 13th, 2009 at 5:56 pm
29. Daniel Lee

    Of course under those figures the Tories only get 3 seats, and both the Greens and BNP gain. It’ll all come down to the Green and Tory votes in the end, and how far Labour falls.

    May 13th, 2009 at 5:59 pm
30. Galloglass

    All the polls so far show no real movement in the Green vote at all, rather the reverse.

    Almost certainly we are looking at 3 Tory 2 Lab and 2 Lib Dem with the last seat regrettably going to Griffin as what was the UKIP vote splinters between several anti EU parties from all over the political spectrum.

    May 13th, 2009 at 8:11 pm
31. Will Stobart

    I’m afraid, Dan, that recent election results have shown a consistent dramatic fall in Green votes. The way things are currently going you will be lucky to end up with any MEPs at all.

    May 13th, 2009 at 8:47 pm
32. Andy Stidwill

    The fact that the Greens were already trailing the BNP by nearly 20,000 votes leads me to believe that the Greens certainly won’t be in a position to get very close to the BNP. A good result for the Greens would be to hold their vote share from 2004, both in this region and around the country. It’ll be touch-and-go in both London and the SE as to whether they hold their MEPs. Sod’s Law says they’ll hang on in one of those regions but lose in the other.

    May 13th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
33. Pete Whitehead

    Daniel Lee – 3% for Libertas? That is even more laughable than your suggestion that the Greens will get 9% in this region. Actually I take your point about the Respect voters and the quite clever Green campaign on tactical voting here which may see their vote hold up better than in other regions. My unrounded figures had them on 5.3% which is certainly a lower decrease than I have envisaged elsewhere, but indeed the Green vote could rise a bit here – maybe to as much as 6%, but they will not win a seat and they will not outpoll the BNP (or UKIP)

    May 14th, 2009 at 12:49 am
34. Paul H-J

    First six seats will be Con 3; Lab 2 and LD 1.

    Last two seats will be a bun-fight between:

    Con 4;
    LD 2;
    UKIP
    BNP

    Pick any two according to taste.

    Since there are County Council elections in Lancashire and Cumbria, but not in Gtr Manchester, Merseyside or Cheshire, this is likely to hurt Labour, but not to the extent of losing their second seat.

    The BNP strength is mainly in the Mill towns north of Manchester, where there are Cty Council Elections, so will benefit BNP, but still a hurdle for Griffin to get elected – may depend on how badly UKIP do.

    Green vote may well rise thanks to their (fraudulent) tactical voting campaign and merger with Respect, but not by enough to catch BNP or win a seat.

    May 14th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
35. Pete Whitehead

    The BNP are something of a rising force in Cumbria now as well, judging by some recent local government byelections and are fielding a large slate of candidates for the CC elections there. Their weakness in Cumbria in 2004 was one of the factors that prevented Griffin from being elected then

    May 14th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
36. vote watcher

    Think folks are being very dismissive of the factors in national politics at the moment

    The Constituency will see

    Con 26%
    Lab 24%
    Libs 16%
    UkIP 12%
    BNP 10%
    Greens 8%
    Others 4

    So Con 2 Lab 2 LIb 1 UKIP 1 BNP 1 Con or Green for last seat

    May 14th, 2009 at 10:54 pm
37. vote watcher

    Think folks are being very dismissive of the factors in national politics at the moment

    The Constituency will see

    Con 26%
    Lab 24%
    Libs 16%
    UkIP 12%
    BNP 10%
    Greens 8%
    Others 4

    So Con 2 Lab 2 LIb 1 UKIP 1 BNP 1 Con or Green for last seat

    May 14th, 2009 at 10:54 pm
38. billwestall

    To use an old but true expression, “we have not yet begun to fight”.
    Libertas will come through and win in this election, of that there no doubt.

    May 15th, 2009 at 8:47 am
39. wezza

    Does anybody really think that the old % party splits will apply on June 4th.
    People are starting to think about who they are putting in seats of power.
    The latest revelations will cause a large number of the electorate to seriously think about who they vote for.

    May 15th, 2009 at 8:58 am
40. Andy Stidwill

    It’s interesting that the Daily Telegraph are reporting that the most likely seats the BNP will win are in the NW, NE, East Midlands and London. That seems like sloppy journalism to me. Surely the West Midlands and Yorkshire&Humberside and more likely to elect BNP members than the NE and London. In fact the West Midlands was the closest region to elect an MEP in 2004.

    May 15th, 2009 at 9:29 pm
41. Oliver

    Nick Griffin will almost certainly get elected here. He has a 80-90% chance In my opinion.

    Con – 28%
    Lab – 19%
    Lib D – 16%
    BNP – 15%
    UKIP – 9%
    Green – 8%
    Others – 5%

    May 16th, 2009 at 10:59 pm
42. Luke

    The ComRes poll for the North of England (not North West, but it is included) puts the Greens on 13% and the BNP on 6%, with UKIP on 11%.

    If translated through the North West, then the Greens would pick up a seat.

    May 17th, 2009 at 9:55 pm
43. Doktorb

    For the Greens to get a NW seat they would need to get every single on of their voters in lancaster to ask every one of their friends and family to vote Green too! I just cannot see the Greens doing it.

    May 18th, 2009 at 10:00 am
44. Daniel Lee

    That would make sense if you decide to ignore Manchester and Liverpool, being the two big population centres in the NW, where the Green vote is strong and growing… I think that can account for Lancastrian families.

    May 18th, 2009 at 3:51 pm
45. Cestrian

    Interestingly, the only party I have received literature from have been UKIP and the Greens!

    May 18th, 2009 at 4:29 pm
46. Pete Whitehead

    Manchester and LIverpool will account for less than 10% of votes cast in the region. The Greens may well top 10% of the vote in those two cities but they need to be getting that across the region to be in with a shout and they arent going to match that support in the other 90% of the region

    May 18th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
47. Daniel Lee

    I’m not sure where you get that idea from. Greater Manchester and Liverpool (Merseyside) account for nearly 60% of the NW population. Even if the entirety of Cumbria votes, Merseyside and Manchester, even at 10% turnout, would equal Cumbria alone in terms of numbers. We’ve a good local party in Cumbria and are very strong in places like Lancaster, so I’m quite confident we’re getting votes accross the region.

    May 18th, 2009 at 10:49 pm
48. Pete Whitehead

    Manchester and Liverpool , the cities of, which is where the Greens have some strength, will account for less than 1 in 10 vots cast in the region. It is no good start arguing that Manchester really means Greater Manchester or that Liverpool really means Merseyside because outside those two areas the Greens have negligble support (ie in Knowsley, St Helens, Wigan, Salford, Tameside, Bury etc etc).

    “[we] are very strong in places like Lancaster,”

    What do you mean by places ‘like’ Lancaster? Which places in the North West are in any way like Lancaster in terms of their support for the Green party? Why say ‘places like Lancaster’ when what you mean is ‘Lancaster’.
    Lancaster has c. 40,000 voters. This region has an electorate of over 5 million.

    May 18th, 2009 at 11:19 pm
49. benjamin

    I believe there is some Green strength in Preston as well.

    May 20th, 2009 at 8:55 pm
50. James Groves

    There are three Green candidates standing in Preston for the County Council Elections – although the fact that two of them live in Lancaster would seem to support Pete’s point.

    May 20th, 2009 at 9:46 pm

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